JSE Climbs 280 Points as Fed Holds at 4.5%—Top 40 Gains

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share Index (JALSH) rose by 280.45 points to close at 91,777.04 ZAR on Thursday—a 0.31% gain. This is a positive move as investor sentiment improves with international policy stability and domestic reform efforts.

The trigger for the market’s up move was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. The central bank’s pause in its tightening cycle is a relief to global investors especially with inflation and labour market concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a data dependent approach which eased fears of near term rate hikes.

Investors also welcomed the resumption of trade talks between the U.S. and China, a key factor in calming geopolitical tensions and stabilising emerging market assets. South Africa’s instruments, including the rand and equities, benefited from this renewed global risk appetite.

Rand Flat as Local Reforms Inspire Confidence

The South African rand traded at 18.22 against the U.S. dollar, almost unchanged from Tuesday’s 18.19 close. The narrow range is due to a cautious market as global markets await key data, while South African data was light midweek.

However the focus remains on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform agenda with the second phase of the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (ERRP) expected to roll out soon. These structural policy changes will spur investment, improve governance and enhance infrastructure, key to long term growth.

Key elements of the reform package include:

• Expansion of energy capacity through private sector participation

• Streamlining of state owned enterprise operations

• Promotion of youth employment through incentives and vocational programs

These are the key to reviving investor confidence and aligning South Africa’s growth path with sustainable development goals.

JSE Top 40 Technical Analysis – Key Levels for New Traders

The South Africa JSE Top 40 Index is trading at 83,905, testing support at 83,497, a level where buyers have stepped in recently. The index is above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 82,980, a key dynamic support level that has guided the recent uptrend.

The upward trendline from mid April is supportive of the bullish case but the recent slowdown at 85,236 could be profit taking or a short term correction.

The MACD is showing early signs of bearish momentum with the histogram turning red, a pullback is possible.

Trade Setup:

• Buy Above: 83,497 (on a strong bounce)

• Take Profit: 85,236 (recent high)

• Stop Loss: 82,980 (below 50 EMA)

This trade setup is looking to catch a rebound while minimizing downside risk if the trend weakens further.

Outlook – Global Policy and Local Data to Drive Market Momentum

Going forward investors will be watching the CME FedWatch Tool which is currently showing a high probability of a rate cut in July. This should be positive for emerging market flows including South Africa.

Locally attention will shift to Thursday’s manufacturing and foreign reserve data releases which will give us more insight into the short term economic health.

Analysts warn that while momentum is building, future gains will depend on global rate policy clarity and the tangible implementation of local reforms.