Trump’s Chip Comments Lift NVDA Stock — More Upside Ahead Nvidia?
Markets experienced a volatile session but NVDA shares gained, driven by a late-session boost from President Trump’s surprise chip export...
Quick overview
- Markets experienced volatility with NVDA shares gaining due to President Trump's unexpected comments on chip exports.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on economic uncertainty initially weighed on market sentiment, particularly affecting the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
- Trump's potential rollback of AI chip export restrictions sparked a rally in semiconductor stocks, lifting broader market indices into positive territory.
- Nvidia's stock surged above key technical levels, closing at $117.06, as traders watch for a breakout above the 50-day SMA around $120.
Live NVDA Chart
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Markets experienced a volatile session but NVDA shares gained, driven by a late-session boost from President Trump’s surprise chip export remarks.
Fed Signals Uncertainty, Markets React Cautiously
Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, markets initially pulled back amid signals of elevated economic uncertainty and a clear commitment to a data-dependent policy path. Powell acknowledged the unpredictable nature of current conditions, refraining from offering any timeline for potential rate adjustments.
This hesitant tone weighed on sentiment through much of the session, dragging major indices lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was particularly reactive, falling by over 0.4% after Powell’s remarks as investors recalibrated expectations around monetary policy, inflation risks, and the macroeconomic outlook.
Trump’s Chip Comments Spark Semiconductor Rally
However, momentum shifted sharply in the final hour of trade. A Bloomberg report suggested that President Trump may roll back pending global chip export restrictions related to AI technology. The news immediately lifted sentiment across semiconductor names, which had been under pressure due to mounting geopolitical tensions and growing regulatory scrutiny.
Semiconductor stocks surged in response, with the broader indices following suit and closing the day in positive territory.
Nvidia Climbs Above Key Technical Levels
Nvidia (NVDA), which has been a focal point in the AI trade and at the center of chip-related tensions, was among the top beneficiaries. The stock jumped approximately 4%, decisively breaking above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $115—a level that had recently acted as a ceiling for price action.
Earlier in April, Nvidia shares had slipped below the more significant 200-day SMA following the announcement of U.S. trade tariffs. Sentiment took another hit mid-month when the company disclosed a $5.5 billion impairment charge tied to unsold H20 AI chips, which were affected by export bans to China.
NVDA Stock Chart Daily – The 100 SMA Is Broken 
Yet as trade negotiations progressed and tariffs were temporarily delayed by President Trump, market conditions stabilized. His latest comments served as a catalyst, driving NVDA shares to a session close of $117.06.
With the next resistance level at the 50-day SMA around $120, traders will now be watching closely. A breakout above that point could signal a return to a sustained bullish trend.
Trump Administration Signals Shift on AI Chip Export Policy
- Trump will not enforce the AI diffusion rule originally set to take effect on May 15.
- This rule was introduced under the Biden administration to limit the global spread of AI-enabling technology, particularly chips.
- The reversal comes just ahead of a planned trip to the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed frustration over chip acquisition restrictions.
- Trump officials are drafting a new version of the rule, expected to tighten oversight on chip exports but possibly with different enforcement parameters or exemptions.
- Despite this rollback, Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries have already been subject to chip export controls since 2023, limiting access to high-end AI semiconductors.
- Analysts suggest this move could be part of broader negotiations, as the UAE has committed up to $1.4 trillion in investments into U.S. technology and infrastructure over the coming decade.
The decision to halt enforcement of the AI diffusion rule would reflect both geopolitical considerations and ongoing U.S. efforts to balance national security with foreign investment incentives. While controls on chip exports may persist in revised form, the shift signals potential openness to more flexible frameworks—particularly in regions committing large-scale investments into U.S. sectors.
The market became very excited about this, but it is more about chip shipments to the Middle East/India and is unlikely to affect tariffs or restrictions on chip shipments to China.
Conclusion: NVDA Not Bullish Yet, but Watch the $125 Level
Yesterday’s trading session showcased the delicate interplay between monetary policy caution and geopolitical developments. While the Federal Reserve’s message cooled enthusiasm early on, President Trump’s potential reversal on chip export restrictions offered a powerful counterbalance. For semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, which sit at the crossroads of AI innovation and global trade tensions, political headlines remain as market-moving as economic data.
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