Nedbank Group Share Price Now Bullish, Targets R310 After H1 Weakness as Sentiment Turns
Nedbank’s fortunes have shifted dramatically in recent weeks, with the share price snapping a year-long decline and regaining nearly 30%...
Quick overview
- Nedbank's share price has rebounded nearly 30% after a year-long decline, driven by improved market sentiment and operational results.
- Despite rising operating expenses impacting profitability, the bank's underlying earnings remain strong, with a 6% increase in headline earnings.
- Nedbank boasts the highest employee retention rate in South Africa, contributing to its operational resilience and long-term investor confidence.
- Technical indicators suggest a potential path back to the R310 resistance level, with current momentum signaling a structural trend reversal.
Nedbank’s fortunes have shifted dramatically in recent weeks, with the share price snapping a year-long decline and regaining nearly 30%—driven by improving sentiment, a strong technical breakout, and steady operational results.
Nedbank Breaks Its Downtrend as Momentum Returns
After spending nearly a year under sustained selling pressure, Nedbank Group’s share price has staged a powerful comeback. The stock had cascaded to R206 by late September as the bank’s first-half 2025 performance delivered limited upside surprises and rising costs eroded margins. Combined with a persistent technical downtrend and repeated failures to break above the long-standing R310 resistance, market sentiment remained firmly bearish for most of the year.
NED Share Chart Weekly – The Rebound Has Broken Above All MAs
That picture shifted dramatically in October. After briefly slipping below the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), Nedbank found solid support above R200 and began to reverse sharply. Over the past two months, the stock has surged to R267—climbing back above all major moving averages and setting its sights once again on the R310 historical ceiling last reached in 2018.
The shift reflects renewed investor appetite for South African financials, an improving macro backdrop, and a recognition that Nedbank’s underlying fundamentals remain stronger than headline figures initially suggested.
Earnings Under Scrutiny but Core Strength Intact
Nedbank’s first-half 2025 earnings painted a picture of cautious resilience. While headline earnings grew 6% to R8.4 billion and credit losses improved meaningfully, rising operating expenses weighed heavily on profitability. The cost-to-income ratio deteriorated to 57.4%, outpacing revenue growth and reinforcing concerns around cost discipline—a theme that shaped investor sentiment for much of the year.
Nevertheless, the underlying earnings profile remains robust. Revenue climbed 4% year-over-year to R36.41 billion, supported by stable lending activity and disciplined risk management. The credit loss ratio’s improvement—from 104 bps to 81 bps—highlighted a healthier loan book and improved economic conditions relative to the previous year.
Earnings metrics remain steady:
- Headline EPS rose 6% to 1,800 cents
- Diluted HEPS increased 7%
- Basic EPS declined 8% due to once-off expense items
- Interim dividend increased 6% to 1,028 cents
- NAV per share strengthened 6% to 24,522 cents
With a price-to-earnings ratio around 6.5, the stock continues to trade at a historically discounted valuation relative to its EPS growth track record—Nedbank grew earnings per share at a compound 21% annually over the past five years, outpacing the 17% annual growth in share price. This strengthens the case for sustained upside potential as cost pressures gradually normalize.
Workforce Stability and Institutional Strength
Beyond financial metrics, Nedbank’s internal stability has helped support long-term investor confidence. A recent study revealed the bank holds the highest employee retention rate in South Africa, with median tenure reaching 11.7 years—a figure that underscores deep organisational continuity and consistent leadership culture.
Group Executive for Human Resources Deb Fuller highlighted that long-term employee commitment remains a strategic advantage, reinforcing Nedbank’s operational resilience through both economic cycles and industry shifts.
Technical Outlook: Path Back to R310?
From a charting perspective, Nedbank has reclaimed key moving averages on the weekly timeframe for the first time in a year, signalling a structural trend reversal. Momentum indicators are turning bullish, and the R200–R210 zone now stands as a confirmed support base.
If current momentum holds, the next major test lies at the R310 resistance region, a breakout above which could open the door to new multi-year highs. Conversely, failure to sustain gains above R250 may trigger consolidation before the next leg higher.
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