US equity markets returned from the 4th of July holiday on the front foot. Across the board, the major indices pushed higher ahead of an important day. The SPX finished up 0.86%, with the FOMC minutes and ADP employment the major market moving data points.

At the same time, the US-China tariffs are set to come into place also. And that didn’t appear to impact the price action. There’s been so much coverage, that this whole saga is well and truly baked into the price.

Looking ahead today is clearly an important day. With US employment data the highlight of the US session.

We are looking at an increase of 200K jobs last month. Although there was a miss in ADP employment which sometimes can be a preview of things to come. At the same time, the attention needs to be on average hourly earnings, as it is a key metric for the Fed.

Technical Outlook

At this point in time, the SPX is still grinding along the bottom of our channel. Price action has been a little muted this week thanks to the reduced hours for US traders.

I still feel we have some more room to sell-off here. I’ve said before that 2560 is my downside target. And that remains around 5% away.

The ascending channel is bearish by nature and if we have some weak data, we might get a push lower.

But don’t get me wrong. I’m long-term bullish on the US economy and the stock market. So if we do get a fall, I feel this is only a short-term pullback. And if anything, a buying opportunity.