Yesterday, I came across a question in a social platform which weighs odds of future events happening one way or the other. The question was “Will Oil reach $80 sometime this year?”. You identify and weigh the pros and cons and you come up with the odds. But before answering that question there, I think I’m going to give it a try here first.

The red moving average has been broken

Pros  

1. World economy is improving with more pace
2. OPEC is keeping the quotas
3. $80 is not that far
4. The trend is bullish

Cons 

1. $80 is quite far
2. The trade war is beginning with tariffs
3. Real war is just around the corner in the middle east

So, how do we weigh these factors? 

Pros

1. Real, it’s been going on for some time
2. Real, OPEC will push quotas further
3. Real, $80 is not far, it’s reachable

Cons

1. Real, $80 is a bit far
2. Partially real, trade war has begun but we don’t know to what extent it will stretch. Will it hurt the global economy, or will it give it a push? It’s too early to tell and things are very blurry.
3. NATO launched a few missiles
4. The trend is bullish, isn’t it?

As you can see the odds of Oil reaching $80 are 50/50. I don’t have a programme to weigh the odds correctly, but that’s the idea. The chances of Oil reaching $80 are almost the same as not reaching that level. The 100 SMA (green) is likely to be a big obstacle, but if the momentum is strong, then it can be overcome.

Conclusion – I give it 60% chance that Oil prices reach $80 this year.