The EUR/USD has got a very bare calendar this week, so once again the focus will be on the USD to dictate the direction.

On Monday the US is away on holiday so I expect trade to be relatively quiet. But as the week moves on we get some very important top-tier data.

US employment is the key to the week and it will probably dictate what happens to the EUR/USD.

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD fell away sharply from resistance at 1.1740 and on Friday when the USD bounced, it got hit even harder.

We closed the week back at the 1.1600 level which was a short and sharp fall. In reality, there was just so much resistance at 1.1700 and 1.1740-50 that it was always going to be a tough ask to hold on.

The next support level will be at 1.1540 before we reach the 1.1500 whole number. I suspect we will push back down into that level, as the USD has found a bit of strength.

That probably won’t happen on Monday, given the fact that the US is away, but as markets get busier towards the end of the week, things will start to look a bit more active.