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Gold Price Prediction: Descending Triangle Pattern In-Play – Eyes on Breakout!

Posted Friday, March 26, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
 GOLD prices were closed at 1725.10 after placing a high of 1744.80 a low of 1720.30. gold prices continued falling on Thursday amid the greenback gains despite a softening of the US long-term yields. The US Dollar Index rose about 0.4% at 92.885 on Thursday. The dollar last achieved this level on the last week of October 2020. The 10-year note Treasury yields have been rising since the first week of March, and currently, they are fixed at 1.614%. Both the US dollar’s strength and the higher US treasury yields have been keeping gold prices under pressure for several weeks.

The San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that the US economy was a long way from its goals. She added that the central bank would not take the punchbowl in advance from the economy as the unemployment was falling and the recovery was picking up. Daly said that the Federal Reserve would not get overly joyous as the jobless rate was falling. The Fed was committed to leaving the monetary policy accommodation in place until the jobs are fully secured.

According to the Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, the burst of inflation for months was not enough; patience was the thing to deal with. He added that a sustainable 2.5% inflation rate for a year should not be a worry as long as it reaches 3%. The Chief Executive Officer of New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, said on Thursday that the timeline for when the Fed will start to raise interest rates would depend on the economy’s conditions. He said that the US economy could recover more rapidly this year as the infections were dropping and more people were receiving vaccination dosses. He refused to provide information about the next action in policy as it will be dependent on the condition of the economy.

Williams believed that it would be a while before the US economy reached a 2% inflation rate as the country was still facing a high jobless rate along with the other global forces that were holding the inflation down. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that the US central bank would support the economy in place until the recovery from the pandemic was truly made. As the recovery was progressing, the Fed’s near-zero interest rates and the monthly bond purchases provided powerful support to the economy.

Clarida added that the upcoming economic growth and inflation were both welcome, and they will not prompt the Fed to quickly rolling back the support that was put in place a year ago against the crisis. The President of Atlanta Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, said that the US still has a long battle to recover its jobs; however, by next year, it could return to full employment next year with the rising of interest rates in 2023.

All these comments from Fed officials on Thursday supported the US dollar’s strength that ultimately added further pressure on GOLD prices and dragged them down. On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Final GDP for the quarter raised to 4.3% against the expected 4.1% and supported the US dollar and added losses in GOLD prices. The Final GDP Price Index for the quarter came in line with the expectations of 2.0%. Last week, the Unemployment Claims dropped to 684K against the expected 727K, supported the US dollar, and added further downside momentum in yellow metal prices.

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1724.44 1739.84
1715.67 1746.47
1709.04 1755.24
Pivot Point: 1731.07

The technical side of the precious metal GOLD remains unchanged as it’s trading at $1,728 level, gaining support around the 1,724 marks and a resistance level of 1,741. The MACD and RSI support a buying trend now, whereas the 20 & 50 periods EMA are also suggesting a bullish bias. The precious metal gold is gaining support at 1,723 level that’s extended by the triple bottom pattern on the two-hourly timeframes. GOLD can exhibit buying trading with an immediate target of 1,731 and 1,739 level. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 1,723 level can lead the GOLD price towards 1,716 level. Good luck!

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