Forex Signals Brief for November 22: USD Progresses As Sentiment Turns Negative

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

The USD started to show signs of reversing higher last week after the steep retreat of the last several weeks and yesterday the reversal became more visible as the USD continued to grind higher slowly, on a day of not much, apart from the situation in China with the covid restrictions which continue, thus hurting the risk sentiment.

There were some FED speakers yesterday, with Mary Daly saying that the labor market is very strong while inflation is unacceptably high. Mester popped up later saying that the FED is not anywhere near stopping rate hikes, which sounds hawkish. We saw a $5 dip in crude Oil as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members were considering a production increase of up to 500K bpd at the December meeting, according to the Wall Street Journal. But those rumours were denied and the reversal higher was just as quick.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic calendar is light again, with the Tokyo core CPI inflation ticking higher but still remaining well under control, while the RBA Governor Lowe held a speech early in the Asian session. The European session was empty while later in the US session we have retail sales from Canada and consumer confidence from the Eurozone, both of which are expected to come out negative. FED members such as George and Bullard will speak later on, which might have some impact on the USD, depending on how hawkish their comments are.

Forex Signals Update

Last week the volatility continued and there were many reversals, as uncertainty increased with the return of the USD buyers, so it was hard to trade. Yesterday markets were quieter and one-sided, so we took advantage of that and opened six trading signals, all of which closed in profit.

Buying the Retreat in USD/JPY at the 200 SMA 

USD/JPY has been reversing higher since last week after the crash ended and yesterday we saw a slight retrace lower. But the 200 SMA (purple) held as support on the H1 chart and we decided to open a buy forex signal here after the doji candlestick above this moving average. The price bounced off that moving average and we closed that trade in profit.

USD/JPY – H1 chart

Continuing to Sell GOLD 

Gold had been bearish since March after failing to hold gains above $2,000 but we saw a strong surge in the last two weeks as the USD retreated lower. Although the climb has stopped and the 20 SMA (gray) has turned into resistance in the H1 chart. We opened two Gold signals on the downside which closed in profit.

XAU/USD – H1 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The bullish momentum that we saw in October in cryptocurrencies as risk sentiment improved, seems to have ended. They have turned bearish and after the bearish move earlier this month, yesterday we saw another decline, which sent them to the lows from early November, as the sentiment turned negative.

BITCOIN Testing This Week’s Lows

Bitcoin turned bearish earlier this month as it fell to around $15,600 from $22,000 after the bankruptcy of FTX exchange. The price consolidated for a couple of weeks, but the decline resumed again as the 200 SMA (purple) caught u with the price and yesterday sellers retested the previous low, which held at the first attempt.

BTC/USD – H1 chart

ETHEREUM Falling Below $1,200 Again

The FTX bankruptcy sent Ethereum crashing lower and despite attempts to turn bullish, sellers still remain in control. There was a consolidation here for a few weeks as well, but the 200 SMA (purple) caught up on the H1 chart and pushed the price lower. Yesterday ETH/USD fell below $1,100 again so the next target will be $1,000.

ETH/USD – H1 chart