Record Low in Home Sales Confirms Weakening US Consumer

The US consumer has been keeping the US economy afloat since 2020, but the elevated interest rates are taking their toll on the consumer. There have been several indicators that show consumer health, and most of them are showing weakness in 2024, however, the FED is still not committing to the start of the rate cut cycle, as FED’s Bowman indicated earlier.

Home sales are tumbling as mortgage rates remain elevated

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USD Starting the Comeback As FED’s Bowman Refuses Rate Cuts

Yesterday the USD made a strong bullish move but earlier today it was retreating, with NZD/USD climbing above 0.61 again. However, the climb stopped as USD buyers started to come back in the US session after the higher Final Q1 GDP and GDP price index report. FED member Bowman also made some hawkish comments, refusing the idea of rate cuts if inflation doesn’t fall to 2%.

FED Member Bowman

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Selling the Bounce in EURUSD After Stronger US Q1 Final GDP

EUR/USD has been consolidating within a range of 1.06 to 1.10 throughout 2024, with both buyers and sellers attempting to create momentum to break out of these levels. The weekly chart highlights moving averages that define this range and today we decided to open a sell forex signal here, after the small jump earlier today.

US Q1 final GDP ticked higher to 1.4%

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GBPUSD Continues Lower, BOE Sees Weakening UK Consumer

GBPUSD was bullish for two months until the middle of June, but has changed course as the Bank of England starts to give dovish signals. The highs are getting lower for this forex pair, as the economic data from the UK softens, while inflation is heading toward normal levels.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

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Asian Markets Trade Mostly Lower

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday, despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight, amid much uncertainty about the interest-rate outlook, while traders braced for the release of key U.S. inflation reading, due later in the week for directional cues. Shares of energy firms struggled a bit due to sluggish oil prices. Asian Markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday.

Hawkish comments from some US Fed officials, and uncertainty on the geopolitical front in the Middle East and Europe also weighed on sentiment.

Fed governor Michelle Bowman recently warned of upside risks to the inflation outlook and reiterated the need to keep borrowing costs elevated “for some time”.

Bowman’s counterpart Lisa Cook said that the timing of any rate adjustment will depend on how economic data evolve and what they imply for the economic outlook and balance of risks.

The Australian market is significantly lower on Thursday, adding to the losses in in the previous session, despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is falling to be a tad above the 7,700 level, as traders react to hot inflation data that stoked fears the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates again as early as next month.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is losing 77.10 points or 0.99 percent to 7,705.90, after hitting a low of 7,654.20 earlier. The broader All Ordinaries Index is down 74.30 points or 0.93 percent to 7,948.60. Australian stocks ended significantly lower on Wednesday.

Among major miners, Rio Tinto is edging down 0.5 percent, BHP Group is losing more than 1 percent and Mineral Resources is down almost 1 percent. Fortescue Metals is flat.

Oil stocks are mostly lower. Woodside Energy is down almost 1 percent, Beach energy is losing more than 2 percent, Santos is declining 1.5 percent each and Origin Energy is edging down 0.1 percent.

In the tech space, Afterpay owner Block is declining more than 1 percent, WiseTech Global is down almost 1 percent and Xero is edging down 0.4 percent, while Appen is adding more than 1 percent and Zip is gaining almost 2 percent.

Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and ANZ Banking are losing almost 2 percent each, while National Australia Bank is declining more than 2 percent.

Among gold miners, Evolution Mining is losing almost 1 percent and Northern Star Resources is declining more than 1 percent, while Resolute Mining is gaining almost 1 percent, Gold Road Resources is edging up 0.1 percent and Newmont is adding more than 1 percent.

In other news, shares in Baby Bunting are skyrocketing 16 percent after the retailer said it still expects pro forma net profit between $2 million and $4 million in financial 2024.

In the currency market, the Aussie dollar is trading at $0.666 on Thursday.

Giving up some of the gains in the previous three sessions, the Japanese market is significantly lower on Thursday, despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight. The Nikkei 225 is falling below the 39,300 level, with weakness across most sectors led by index heavyweights and technology stocks. Traders react to the sharp depreciation in the yen that has now tumbled to a 38-year low.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index closed the morning session at 39,286.52, down 380.55 points or 0.96 percent, after hitting a low of 39,193.51 earlier. Japanese shares ended sharply higher on Wednesday.

Market heavyweight SoftBank Group is edging down 0.4 percent and Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing is declining more than 2 percent. Among automakers, Toyota is losing almost 1 percent and Honda is also down almost 1 percent.

In the tech space, Advantest is edging up 0.1 percent, while Tokyo Electron is losing almost 2 percent and Screen Holdings is declining almost 4 percent.

In the banking sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is edging up 0.5 percent, while Mizuho Financial and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial are gaining almost 1 percent.

Among the major exporters, Canon and Mitsubishi Electric are losing almost 1 percent each, while Panasonic is edging down 0.5 percent. Sony is adding more than 1 percent.

Among other major losers, Daiichi Sankyo losing more than 3 percent, while Sharp, Japan Exchange Group and Daikin Industries are down almost 3 percent each.

Conversely, there are no other major gainers.

In economic news, the total value of retail sales in Japan was up 3.0 percent on year in May, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday – coming in at 13.504 trillion yen. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the April reading following a downward revision from 2.4 percent. On a monthly basis, retail sales jumped a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent after rising 0.8 percent in the previous month.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is trading in the lower 160 yen-range on Thursday.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong is down 1.9 percent, while New Zealand, China, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are lower by between 0.3 and 0.9 percent each. Singapore and Indonesia are up 0.4 and 0.2 percent, respectively

On Wall Street, stocks closed slightly higher on Wednesday after a somewhat sluggish session as investors made cautious moves while awaiting the release of personal consumption expenditures price index report, due on Friday. Data on first quarter GDP, durable goods orders for the month of May, and jobless claims report are also due this week.

The major averages all closed on the positive side. Technology stocks outperformed, lifting the Nasdaq by 87.50 points or 0.49 percent, to 17,805.16. The Dow ended up by 15.64 points or 0.04 percent at 39,127.80, while the S&P 500 settled at 5,477.60, gaining 8.60 points or 0.16 percent.

Meanwhile, tthe major European markets all moved to the downside on the day. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 settled lower by 0.27 percent, Germany’s DAX edged down 0.12 percent, and France’s CAC 40 closed down by 0.69 percent.

Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed a notable increase in crude inventories in the U.S. last week but recovered and eventually ended the day’s session slightly higher. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for August rose $0.07 at $80.90 a barrel.

ALDI – Bakeshop Chocolate Chip Muffin 4 Count Recalled

Toronto, Ontario -based FGF Brands Inc is recalling 11830 cases of ALDI – Bakeshop Chocolate Chip Muffin 4 count citing the possible presence of undeclared Walnut, a known allergen, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The recalled product comes in a clear plastic clamshell containing 4 muffins with a red label. They are marked with lot # NF1 142Y on the top and UPC on the label 4099100048278, and distributed nationwide in ALDI retail stores.

The recall was initiated after it was discovered that the walnut-containing product was distributed in packaging that did not reveal the presence of walnut. Following investigation, it was found that a temporary breakdown in the company’s production and packaging processes caused the issue.

People who have an allergy or severe sensitivity to Walnut may get serious or life-threatening allergic reaction if they consume these products. However, the company has not received any reports of illnesses or adverse effects related to the impacted products so far.

The company has supended the production of the recalled product until the FDA and the company are certain that the problem has been corrected.

Consumers who have purchased 4 count packages of “ALDI – Bakeshop Chocolate Chip Muffin” are urged to return them to the place of purchase for a full refund.

In similar recalls, DSD Merchandisers, LLC earlier this week called back select Deluxe Roasted & Salted Mixed Nuts citing the presence of undeclared peanut.

Texas Pecan Co. in May called back various nuts, snack mixes, seeds, and snack sticks in 1 Lb and 8 oz sizes, citing the potential to contain undeclared peanut, tree nuts, soy, milk, sesame, and wheat allergens.

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German Government Operates as a Crypto Whale

The German government just moved $15 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and put it onto accounts on Kraken and Bitstamp. That is more than 600 bitcoins.

Bitcoin is being moved in mass quantities by the German government.

The government has been seizing thousands of bitcoins from illegal operators in the country, including about 50,000 BTC from movie pirates. Back in January, they seized a large Bitcoin stash from piracy website Movie2k.

 

This and other seizures are part of a larger operation to take criminal bitcoin assets and put them into  government-owned accounts. Multiple transfers have been moved to account on Kraken and Bitstamp,

These seizures have been happening all year, totaling up to about $15 million worth in Bitcoin. But the trend of transferring the money into specific exchange addresses is more recent, starting just last week.

Even though the German government has been making these massive transfers, they still own billions in Bitcoin. Estimates place the German government’s total holding at about $2.8 billion. That is about 45,609 BTC.

German authorities brought in $20.1 million in BTC from Kraken in this month alone, as well as about $5.5 million from other exchanges.

Bitcoin Affected by the Transfers

The movement of so much money has had quite an impact on Bitcoin. Around the time that these transfers took place, Bitcoin dropped about 6%, but the government transfers were not the only factor at work causing the price drop.

If the German government is liquidating much of its digital assets, that could mean big things for the crypto market. Bitcoin has suffered extensive selloff in recent weeks, partly from scared investors who see the price dropping and want to get out fast.

When you have a massive selloff happening, even if they are not caused by panic, they tend to build up and create a snowball effect that is difficult to stop. More and more investors see the trend happening and want to lower their risk, so they sell off as well.  

It looks like the crypto market, and Bitcoin in particular, are slowing down in the movement and settling into a stabler price level. However, with billions in Bitcoin still to do something with, the German government could cause another price slide if they wanted to.

 

European Economic News Preview: Eurozone Economic Sentiment Data Due

Economic confidence from the euro area and the Financial Stability Report from the UK are the top economic news due on Thursday.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain’s INE is slated to issue retail sales data for May.

In the meantime, consumer and business sentiment survey results are due from Sweden.

At 3.30 am ET, Sweden’s central bank announces its monetary policy decision. Economists expect the bank to hold its key rate at 3.75 percent.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is scheduled to release monetary aggregates for May. M3 is forecast to grow at a faster pace of 1.5 percent annually after a 1.3 percent gain in April.

Also, consumer and business sentiment survey results are due from Italy.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission publishes euro area economic sentiment survey data for July. The economic confidence index is expected to climb to 96.2 in June from 96.0 in May.

At 5.30 am ET, the Bank of England is set to issue the Financial Stability Report.

BluePoint Labs Recalls Potassium Chloride Extended-Release Capsules

American Health Packaging on behalf of BluePoint Laboratories is recalling 21 batches of Potassium Chloride Extended-Release Capsules, USP (750 mg) 10 mEq K, to the consumer level citing failed dissolution, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Potassium Chloride Extended-Release Capsules are used to treat patients with low potassium (hypokalemia).

They are packaged in bottles of 100-count (NDC 68001-396-00) and 500-count (NDC 68001-396-03) capsules, and were distributed nationwide to wholesale, distributor, and retail outlets.

Earlier this week, Mahwah, New Jersey-based Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc., USA had called back 114 batches of Potassium Chloride Extended-Release Capsules USP (750 mg) 10 mEq K citing failed dissolution.

The agency noted that the failed dissolution of potassium chloride extended release capsules may cause high potassium levels, also known as hyperkalemia, which can result in irregular heart beat that can lead to cardiac arrest.

To date, the firm has not received any reports of hyperkalemia or serious adverse events from spontaneous sources related to the recall.

Wholesalers, distributors, and retailers are urged to discontinue distribution of the recalled product lots immediately.

Consumers with the capsules are asked to consult with their physician or health care provider before they stop using the product.

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Eurozone Economic Sentiment Softens In June

Eurozone economic confidence weakened unexpectedly in June, suggesting that the economy remains weak, survey data published by the European Commission showed on Thursday.

The economic confidence index posted 95.9 in June, down from 96.1 in May. The reading was forecast to rise slightly to 96.2.

The score largely reflected broadly stable sentiment in industry, and among consumers and service providers, while confidence in construction and retail deteriorated from May.

The industrial confidence index unexpectedly weakened to -10.1 in June from -9.9 in May. The score was forecast to rise to -9.6.

The services sentiment index posted 6.5 in June, down from 6.8 a month ago. The reading was seen at 6.4.

At -14.0, the consumer confidence index was up from -14.3 in the previous month. The score also matched the flash estimate.

The retail trade sentiment index deteriorated to -7.8 from -6.8 in May. Likewise, the construction confidence index declined to -7.0 from -6.2 in the prior month.

The survey showed that economic uncertainty indicator weakened further in June. The corresponding index slid to 18.0 in June from 18.5 in May.

The employment expectations indicator dropped to 99.7 from 101.3 in May. The decrease reflects markedly lower employment plans in retail trade and construction and services.

Capital Economics’ economist Lily Millard said the economic sentiment survey is consistent with weak growth in the Eurozone GDP and suggested that price pressures continued to ease in manufacturing but remained strong in the services sector.