Mexican Peso Falls 35 Cents Against the Dollar Amid Middle East Jitters

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Latin American currency weakened amid persistent risk aversion in financial markets, as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East.

The Mexican peso depreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar in Tuesday’s trading session. The local currency came under pressure as heightened geopolitical tensions fueled a flight to safety.

The exchange rate closed at 17.6367 pesos per dollar. Compared with Monday’s official close of 17.2853, according to data from the Banco de México (Banxico), this represented a loss of 35.14 centavos, or 2.03%.

During the session, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 17.8770 pesos — its strongest level since mid-January — and a low of 17.2907. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.48% to 99.03.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

On Tuesday, the United States and Israel continued their attacks on Iran, aimed at dismantling the ayatollah-led regime and its nuclear ambitions. Meanwhile, Iran maintained actions against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade.

Benchmark oil prices surged for a second straight day, as disruptions to shipping routes increased costs for companies. Traders are adjusting their outlooks in light of rising inflation expectations and the potential implications for monetary policy.

The war and its impact on energy prices continue to dominate currency markets. The longer oil prices remain elevated, the greater the strain on importing nations and the heavier the drag on global growth.

Currency pressure largely reflects the rebound in crude prices and mounting concerns over inflation stemming from the conflict, which have strengthened the dollar’s appeal as a defensive asset. Investors remain wary that a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger significant supply disruptions, pushing oil — and inflation — even higher.

Inflation Fears Resurface on Wall Street Amid War Tensions

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

U.S. stocks fell sharply Tuesday, with all three major benchmarks closing in negative territory, as escalating tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran fueled concerns about slowing economic growth and the inflationary impact of higher oil prices.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.83% to 48,501.27 points; the S&P 500 lost 0.94% to 6,817.13; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1% to 22,516.69.

[[SPX-graph]]

Inflation concerns weigh on confidence

On Monday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had closed higher, rebounding from steep early losses triggered by weekend attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. The Dow slipped just 0.2%, recovering most of its initial decline. However, investor confidence deteriorated despite the relatively solid close, amid fears of a broader Middle East conflict after Iranian drones reportedly targeted a U.S. embassy in Riyadh and data centers operated by Amazon in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

The U.S. State Department announced Tuesday that it had ordered the departure of non-essential government personnel and their families from Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan.

In his first public remarks since the attacks began, Donald Trump said, “We are already well ahead of our projections,” adding that the United States would continue “whatever it takes.” He later stated on social media that the U.S. has an “almost unlimited” supply of certain types of weapons.

According to analysts at ANZ Bank, “The inflationary impact of the conflict is a major concern for investors, particularly given the sharp rise in oil prices, alongside fears of potential supply disruptions.”

Markets worry that a sustained increase in crude prices could drive global inflation higher and prompt a more hawkish stance from major central banks. Rising oil prices represent a negative supply shock, lifting inflation while increasing downside risks to growth. “The ultimate impact on economies will depend on how long the conflict lasts,” analysts added.

The Federal Reserve’s view

“It is too early to determine how the war with Iran will affect U.S. inflation and growth, but the U.S. economy is less dependent on imported oil than in the past and has shown resilience to energy price shocks,” said John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on Tuesday.

Speaking after an event hosted by America’s Credit Unions in Washington, Williams said the economic transmission of the conflict would likely occur mainly through asset prices and financial market reactions, which so far have been relatively moderate.

“No one can be certain how long this will last or what the broader implications will be,” Williams said. “Past experience shows that oil price moves of the magnitude we’ve seen so far do not fundamentally alter the economy, but we will wait and see.”

A surprise move from Trump

Trump also said Tuesday that the United States would cut all trade with Spain after the country reportedly refused to allow U.S. military forces to use its bases for missions related to the strikes on Iran, according to Reuters.

“Spain has behaved terribly,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, adding that he had instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “break off all relations” with Spain.

U.S. and Chinese Trade Chiefs to Meet Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The meeting between the two representatives aims to build bridges at a time of intense geopolitical tension.

Xi Jinping and Trump will be negotiating in March.

Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are set to meet in mid-March, in talks that will precede the anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

As the conflict in the Middle East escalates following the coordinated U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in Paris late next week to discuss potential trade agreements ahead of the leaders’ summit, according to Bloomberg News.

Although Trump is expected to travel to Beijing at the end of March, Xi has reportedly shown caution following the military campaign in Iran, which resulted in the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

Another issue weighing on Beijing is the U.S. president’s tariff policy, particularly whether he will maintain temporary levies following the ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States.

Key issues on the agenda

Chinese purchase commitments — particularly involving Boeing aircraft and U.S. soybeans — are expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The aerospace giant is reportedly in talks to sell up to 500 aircraft to China, which represents the world’s second-largest aviation market. However, orders have stalled amid bilateral tensions. While Boeing previously delivered roughly a quarter of its aircraft to China, it has not secured a major deal since Trump’s first term.

Last month, Trump said China was considering increasing U.S. soybean imports to 20 million metric tons for the current season, though elevated prices and thin margins have fueled skepticism. Beijing’s last major soybean purchase occurred in late October, shortly before the most recent meeting between the two leaders.

The report also suggests that the future of Taiwan could be addressed. In recent years, Beijing has intensified military exercises around the democratically governed island in an effort to reinforce its sovereignty claims.

Oil Jumps 8% while Wall Street Tumbles More Than 2% Amid Middle East War

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Global markets deepened their losses Tuesday as fears intensified over a broader Middle East war and Iran’s announcement of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical passageway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil flows.

Major stock exchanges extended their selloff, while crude prices surged again, with Brent climbing above $83 per barrel.

U.S. markets were sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell 2.25%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.29%.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 4.03%. Losses were widespread: Germany’s DAX slid 4.11%, France’s CAC 40 fell 3.45%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 3.22%.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.12%, while the Shanghai Composite declined 1.43%. South Korea’s KOSPI 50 plunged 8.55%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.08%.

Oil prices surge further

Brent Crude rose another 7.29% on Tuesday, marking its third consecutive daily gain, as escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran — along with threats to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — heightened fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East. European Brent futures reached $83.49 per barrel after already jumping nearly 7% on Monday.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 7.79% to $76.78 per barrel. In the previous session, the contract had briefly hit its highest level since June 2025 before easing to close 6.3% higher.

[[USOIL-graph]]

With no rapid de-escalation in sight, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran signaling its willingness to target regional energy infrastructure suggest that upside risks remain elevated — and could intensify the longer the conflict persists.

Strait of Hormuz closure deepens crisis

The U.S.- and Israel-led air campaign against Iran expanded Monday, with Israel striking Lebanon and Iran retaliating by targeting energy infrastructure across Gulf states and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil tankers and container ships have begun avoiding the route after insurers reportedly withdrew coverage for vessels operating in the area, while global shipping rates for oil and gas have surged.

Concerns escalated further after Iranian media reported that a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and warned that Iran would fire on any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway.

Oil Surges 8.1%, Hits more Than One-Year High Amid Middle East War

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

International oil prices soared as much as 13% on Monday after maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted by Iranian retaliatory attacks following initial strikes by Israel and the United States that reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

In that context, Brent Crude futures jumped to $82.37 per barrel — their highest level since January 2025 — before trimming gains to close up 8.1% at $78.36.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to an intraday high of $75.33, marking a surge of more than 12% — its largest since June — before easing to settle at $71.99, up 7.4%.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Hormuz: the world’s energy chokepoint

The escalation followed sustained exchanges of attacks that damaged oil tankers and severely disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea between Iran and Oman.

Under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of global oil demand flows through this corridor, including exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait. The strait is also a key route for vessels carrying diesel, jet fuel and gasoline to major Asian markets such as China and India.

More than 200 vessels — including oil tankers and liquefied natural gas carriers — were reported anchored outside the strait, according to shipping data. Three tankers were damaged and one sailor was killed in Sunday’s attacks.

Markets acknowledge the severity of the conflict, though for now it remains a geopolitical crisis rather than a systemic one. However, a prolonged closure of the strategic passage could trigger supply shortages for key Asian importers, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Asia weighs reserves and alternative routes

Amid the risk of extended disruptions, several Asian economies have begun activating contingency plans. South Korea is considering releasing crude from its strategic reserves to supply domestic industries, while India is exploring alternative maritime routes.

Despite the initial spike, prices pared some gains during the Asian session. Analysts noted that markets had already priced in a geopolitical risk premium amid the growing likelihood of open conflict.

So far this year, Brent is up more than 19%, while WTI has gained around 17%.

Bitcoin Climbs to $69,000 Amid Heavy Weekend Liquidations

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The leading cryptocurrency remains focused on the future of the Middle East conflict, while taking advantage of heightened market volatility.

Bitcoin is rebounding after the joint attack carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran’s regime. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up 3.3% at $69,155.64, after plunging to $64,000 over the weekend.

The rest of the market is moving in a similar direction. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2.3% to $2,048.12, while altcoins are following the trend: BNB gains 2.9%, Ripple (XRP) rises 1.5%, and Solana (SOL) rebounds by 3.5%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin uses liquidations to recover from the Iran attack

Bitcoin recovered its weekend losses thanks to heightened volatility, which wiped out approximately 157,000 leveraged traders, triggering around $657 million in liquidations across both long and short positions.

The price of the leading cryptocurrency had plunged following the coordinated attack by the US and Israel on Iran, which reportedly eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In this context, Bitcoin behaved as a risk asset, with uncertainty amplifying market caution.

In February, Bitcoin posted monthly losses of 25.73%, driven by growing geopolitical uncertainty, further intensified by Donald Trump’s tariff policies in the United States. At the same time, markets remain cautious about the potential economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI).

Although there are some early signs of recovery — such as a modest increase in futures open interest (OI), which rose from $43.44 billion to $44.76 billion — the move remains limited and insufficient to signal a sustained return of risk appetite. In this context, the psychological level of $70,000 remains the main short-term resistance, while a breakout could open the door to a test of the February 8 high at $72,271.

Bank of America Turns Highly Bullish on Costco Stock

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The stock assessment focused on two core strengths: Costco’s pricing power and its exceptional customer loyalty.

Costco might be one fo the main winners in 2026.

Costco, the global wholesale retailer that competes directly with Walmart, received a major rating upgrade from Bank of America, which reinstated coverage with a “Buy” rating and set an ambitious price target of $1,185 per share, highlighting the company’s continued value creation for both investors and consumers.

The bank’s assessment centered on two key strengths: Costco’s pricing power and its remarkable customer loyalty. According to the analysis, these factors position the company as one of the most resilient players in the retail sector — particularly in economies with heterogeneous income distribution, where consumers across different segments seek strong value for money.

Costco stands firm in a volatile environment

The new rating comes at a time when investors had already been showing confidence in the company amid broader market volatility.

Costco shares have posted strong gains so far in 2026, and some financial strategists now view the stock as a defensive asset within the consumer staples space.

Part of the stock’s appeal lies in the steady expansion of membership revenue and its consistent dividend policy. Costco has maintained a long track record of growing payouts, having recently increased its regular dividend — making it attractive not only for growth investors, but also for those seeking stable income.

A recent report by CNBC highlighted Costco as one of the most attractive dividend stocks within a universe identified by Wolfe Research. In April, the company raised its regular quarterly dividend from $1.16 to $1.30 per share, reinforcing its commitment to shareholders. In addition, Costco has periodically distributed special dividends of significant size, a practice that has further boosted its appeal among income-focused investors.

A business built on strong fundamentals

Costco’s subscription-based business model, in which members pay annual fees in exchange for access to discounted products, translates into high renewal rates and robust recurring cash flow.

This provides the company with a solid financial base to fund expansion, open new stores, and enhance its e-commerce operations without relying excessively on debt.

Moreover, analyst coverage on Wall Street shows a broad bias toward buy recommendations for Costco shares, with multiple firms raising price targets and reinforcing the company’s long-term value proposition.

That said, some more cautious views remain regarding future growth prospects, noting that past performance does not guarantee future returns. Still, the majority of analysts agree that Costco’s business model and the loyalty of its member base place the company in a strong position to sustain performance over time.

Goldman Sachs Flags Two Sectors as Top AI Investment Plays

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The investment bank highlighted two areas outside the “Magnificent Seven” as potential new growth engines within the AI ecosystem.

Amid sustained growth in investment in artificial intelligence (AI), Goldman Sachs outlined several sectors that could represent compelling investment opportunities beyond the so-called “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla.

While these companies continue to capture most of the market’s attention, Goldman’s report identifies two emerging areas that could become new pillars within the broader AI infrastructure landscape:

Fiber-optic connectivity for next-generation servers and data centers, and
Software linked to data management and security.

Two AI investment themes, according to Goldman Sachs

One structural shift highlighted in the analysis is the transition from copper cabling to fiber optics inside next-generation servers and data centers. The move is driven by fiber’s advantages in bandwidth, energy efficiency, density, and signal integrity.

These characteristics are critical for handling the massive data transfers required by AI workloads and cloud computing. Compared with copper, fiber optics offer higher speed, longer transmission distances, lower energy consumption, and less interference, enabling more compact, scalable, and efficient infrastructure.

The second sector identified in the report is data security software. Goldman notes that AI — particularly agentic AI, which focuses on autonomous decision-making and action to achieve complex objectives — is reshaping critical components of software architecture in this field.

The study shows that companies are making significant investments in data cleaning, the creation of reliable datasets, and advanced identity frameworks for training AI models. These layers are increasingly becoming essential building blocks for enabling advanced AI capabilities, positioning them as strategic investment opportunities within the next phase of AI development.

Donald Trump Faces More than 2,000 Lawsuits After U.S. Supreme Court Setback

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down global tariffs has triggered a wave of more than 2,000 lawsuits against the U.S. government.

Trump's tariffs may be on the chopping block this week. — Trump’s tariffs may be on the chopping block this week.

Major corporations are seeking the վերադարձ of billions of dollars, as uncertainty grows over how — and when — refunds will be issued.

The judicial defeat of Donald Trump at the Supreme Court of the United States over the imposition of global tariffs has opened a new legal front for Washington. More than 2,000 lawsuits have already been filed by companies seeking to recover tariff payments made over recent months.

According to a survey by Bloomberg, in the days following the February 20 ruling, over 100 companies launched new legal actions, pushing the total number of cases linked to the annulled tariffs sharply higher.

Among the firms joining the legal offensive are major names such as FedEx, Dyson, Dollar General, and Bausch & Lomb, as well as subsidiaries of L’Oréal, On Holding, and Skechers.

Together, companies are seeking reimbursement of part of the more than $170 billion collected by the U.S. government in tariffs over the past ten months.

Refunds clouded by uncertainty

While the Supreme Court ruled most of Trump’s global tariffs illegal, it declined to define the mechanism for reimbursing funds already collected. That decision was left to the U.S. Court of International Trade, based in New York.

Trump himself suggested the process could be lengthy. “I suppose it will have to be litigated,” he said after the ruling, signaling that the dispute could drag on for years.

The U.S. Department of Justice must now determine the next steps in the original case, which could provide signals as to whether the government intends to accelerate or delay refunds.

Major corporations join the legal push

The entry of large corporations has added political and financial weight to the process. In a statement, FedEx confirmed it had initiated legal action to “protect the company’s rights as the importer of record,” adding that if refunds are granted, the funds will be passed on to customers and shippers who ultimately bore the tariff costs.

While many large corporations were able to reorganize supply chains or absorb part of the tariff impact, small and medium-sized companies faced far greater difficulties — helping explain the high number of smaller firms among the plaintiffs.

International trade experts noted that the participation of giants like FedEx reduces the “fear of retaliation” and could encourage even more importers to join the lawsuits.

Bitcoin Slips Back to $65,000 After Short-Lived Rebound

Posted on February 27, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The world’s leading cryptocurrency had previously benefited from a short-covering rally and strong performance on Wall Street.

Bitcoin is losing the interest of the market quickly.

The crypto market is retreating in Friday’s session. After opening the day in positive territory, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2.5% over the past 24 hours, trading around $65,273.70.

In the same vein, Ethereum (ETH) is falling 4% to $1,915.32. Most major altcoins are also in the red, with Ripple (XRP) down 3.7% and Solana (SOL) lower by 4.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Risk appetite remains fragile

After Bitcoin extended gains on Wednesday and Thursday following a massive short liquidation, which briefly restored confidence in the leading cryptocurrency, overall risk appetite has remained subdued.

Bitcoin is still down 25.73% on a monthly basis, weighed down by rising geopolitical uncertainty, which has recently intensified due to the tariff policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. At the same time, markets remain cautious about the potential economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Broader risk sentiment has also been influenced by volatility on Wall Street.

Options expiry and on-chain signals

On Friday, $8.74 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire. This represents nearly 20% of total open interest, a level that typically triggers hedging adjustments and tactical positioning in the spot market.

On-chain data reveal significant Bitcoin accumulation around the $67,000 level, where more than 600,000 BTC have established their cost basis, reinforcing this zone as a potential emerging support area.

However, if BTC fails to reclaim $67,000 in the short term, that level could shift from being perceived as support to resistance, limiting rebound potential and capping recovery attempts.

From a valuation perspective, analysts argue that it is not yet an optimal buying zone. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator suggests that the most attractive “deep value” accumulation phase typically appears when MVRV falls below 1 — which, in price terms, would imply a drop below $55,000 for Bitcoin.