Gold Touches Record High of $4,500 as U.S.–Venezuela Tensions Rise

Posted on December 23, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The precious metal is up as much as 72% year to date, although some analysts warn that thinner liquidity could destabilize prices.

Gold’s Resilience Deepens as Rate-Cut Bets and Geopolitics Shape Outlook

Gold is rising 1% and has returned to record territory after breaking above the $4,500 mark, currently trading around $4,517 per ounce. The metal remains firmly in an uptrend and is on track for one of its strongest years on record, with gains approaching 72% so far this year.

This time, expectations around interest rates have been compounded by rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Market participants continue to view precious metals as an effective way to diversify portfolios and preserve value, suggesting that gold and silver may not yet have reached their peaks.

Spot silver is up 1.6% at $69.67, after touching a record high of $69.98, with year-to-date gains exceeding 141%. In line with gold and silver, spot platinum is advancing 1.9% to $2,165.67, its highest level in more than 17 years, while palladium is also up 1.9% at $1,792.51, marking a three-year high.

The Fed, Venezuela, and liquidity: key drivers behind gold prices

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Against this backdrop, investors sought refuge in gold, which also received support from reports suggesting the president could appoint a new chair of the Federal Reserve as early as January.

Analysts note that gold may remain particularly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in interest-rate expectations. As year-end approaches, reduced liquidity could amplify price swings.

Some expect a period of consolidation during the holiday season as liquidity dries up. However, they argue that the rally should resume in earnest once trading volumes return, with $5,000 per ounce seen as a natural target for gold next year and $75 per ounce as a longer-term objective for silver.

2026 Will Be Argentina’s Strongest Economic Year in Decades

Posted on December 23, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Argentina’s deputy economy minister said the October elections marked a “key information threshold” that removed uncertainty about the country’s economic direction, arguing that growth next year will be driven by investment.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023.

In an interview with an Argentine outlet, José Luis Daza, the second-in-command to Economy Minister Luis Caputo, projected a markedly improved outlook for Argentina following the legislative elections held last October. In that context, the economist said that “2026 will be the best year for the economy in decades.”

“Today, waiting carries more costs than benefits. Many investments are already getting underway,” Daza said.

The deputy minister also cited a post by Demian Reidel, president of Nucleoeléctrica Argentina S.A., who highlighted the difference between improvising economic policy and designing long-term state policies with method and predictability—an apparent reference to the government’s new approach.

The Future of Argentina

Despite the upbeat projections, political circles in Argentina have been circulating rumors about a possible departure of Daza from the Economy Ministry. Following the presidential victory of José Antonio Kast in Chile, the official confirmed that he had received offers to join the new Chilean cabinet, though he declined to provide details. Asked about the matter by local media, he said he had been “offered some positions,” fueling speculation about his political future.

Daza reiterated that the October elections represented a “key information threshold” that dispelled doubts about the economic course. As a result, he said, growth in 2026 will be led by investment, but—unlike previous expansionary cycles—will take place under conditions of macroeconomic balance, making it more sustainable.

“It will not only be a year of strong growth, but one with orderly public accounts,” he wrote in a message shared on social media.

According to the economist, the election outcome delivered a strong endorsement of the reform agenda led by President Javier Milei, unlocking projects that had previously been put on hold.

Bitcoin Dips to $87,000 on Strategy Reserve Moves

Posted on December 23, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Risk aversion remains elevated across the crypto market as investors await a potential Federal Reserve rate cut to reignite interest.

Can Bitcoin regain its October highs after a lengthy December decline?

The cryptocurrency market is trading lower, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 2.4% at $87,856, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) is following the same trend, falling 3% to $2,959.

Altcoins are broadly weaker as well: BNB is down 2.3%, Ripple (XRP) is off 2.6%, and Solana (SOL) declines 3.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin’s rally stalls on U.S. data and Strategy moves

Investor caution has been driven largely by anticipation of key U.S. economic data, adding to the risk-off sentiment that has dominated markets over the past month. Overall losses, however, have been limited by thin trading volumes due to the year-end holiday period.

U.S. third-quarter GDP data are expected to show a slight slowdown in growth compared with the previous quarter, reflecting softer retail spending and a cooling labor market. Investors are also awaiting October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Meanwhile, Strategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has paused BTC purchases in recent weeks and increased its cash reserves, positioning itself for a potential cooling in crypto prices.

In a regulatory filing, the company led by Michael Saylor disclosed that it raised $748 million in the week ending December 21 without buying Bitcoin. Earlier this month, Strategy had purchased roughly $2 billion worth of BTC, bringing its total holdings to 671,268 bitcoins. Strategy’s shares have fallen by roughly half in value so far in 2025.

Traditional markets

Major Wall Street indexes are trading modestly lower on Tuesday, despite the release of some U.S. economic data that came in better than expected. Elsewhere, global markets are posting slight gains.

In this context, the S&P 500 is down 0.02%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edges up 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading flat.

Top gainers include Albemarle (+5.23%), Gilead Sciences (+3.03%), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (+1.13%). On the downside, Hershey (-3.87%) and First Solar (-2.65%) are among the biggest decliners.

Heading into the final stretch of the year, Wall Street indexes are posting broad gains in 2025: the Nasdaq is up 18.54%, the S&P 500 has risen 15.14%, and the Dow Jones is higher by 12.72%.

Fidelity Sees Bitcoin Bull Cycle Ending at $65,000

Posted on December 23, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Fidelity’s director of research, Jurrien Timmer, said the leading cryptocurrency is likely to follow its historical cycle.

Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.

The crypto market is going through a period of heightened uncertainty, as analysts debate whether Bitcoin (BTC) will enter a bullish or bearish phase in 2026. While some forecasts point to $90,000 as a sign of stability, others—including Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director of Research at Fidelity—believe a significant correction is approaching.

Speaking from one of the world’s largest asset managers, Timmer said Bitcoin is heading toward a $65,000 floor, despite maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. His view is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, driven by halving events. Within this framework, the all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6, would have marked the peak of the cycle—both in price and timing.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Based on this four-year pattern, Fidelity expects 2026 to be a down year, with Bitcoin’s current support zone estimated in the $65,000–$75,000 range.

Timmer’s post on X and the outlook for Bitcoin

“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, I’m concerned that Bitcoin may have completed another halving phase of its four-year cycle, both in price and in time,” Timmer wrote in a post on X.

In the same message, he added: “If we visually align all bull markets, we can see that the October peak of around $125,000, after roughly 145 months of gains, fits the expected pattern quite well. Bitcoin winters typically last about a year, so I suspect that 2026 could be a transition or pause year for Bitcoin.”

Market reaction

In terms of price action, the crypto market is trading lower. Bitcoin is down 2.4% at $87,856, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure, falling 3% to $2,959.

Altcoins are broadly weaker as well: BNB is down 2.3%, Ripple (XRP) is off 2.6%, and Solana (SOL) is down 3.3%.

Wall Street Extends Gains Ahead of the Holidays

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

As expectations grow for another Federal Reserve rate cut, U.S. equities closed higher again, albeit on thin holiday trading.

Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.

Major Wall Street indexes finished in positive territory on Monday, extending their recent gains. Markets are aiming for a strong year-end performance, even as trading volumes remain subdued during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Thursday for Christmas—factors that typically reduce trading volumes and can amplify price swings.

[[SPX-graph]]

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,872.78, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% to 23,428.83.

Economic data in focus for Fed clues

Last week’s U.S. inflation data further supported the market’s overall momentum. A surprisingly soft reading of the consumer price index (CPI) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could move more quickly to cut interest rates in 2026. The data pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, providing an additional tailwind for equities.

“If the unemployment rate continues to rise, we believe the Fed will respond by lowering its policy rate. Otherwise, Fed cuts in 2026 are likely to come later, only once it becomes clear that inflationary pressures are easing,” said Michael Gapen, economist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.

Investors are also closely watching developments related to the Fed’s leadership transition for further policy signals. With the term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to end in May and U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly interviewing several potential successors, markets are parsing any comments related to interest rates and monetary strategy.

Wall Street movers

Technology stocks drew particular attention after chipmaker Micron Technology jumped 4.1% last week following a strong earnings outlook, reigniting enthusiasm for AI-linked stocks.

The forecast helped restore confidence in a sector that had recently faced pressure from elevated valuations, heavy capital requirements, and concerns over whether demand growth would justify higher prices.

Shares of Oracle Corporation climbed 3.3% after reports that TikTok agreed to sell its U.S. operations to a new joint venture, with Oracle expected to play a key role in providing cloud and data-infrastructure services.

The news lifted Oracle and supported gains across large-cap technology stocks, reflecting continued confidence that demand for advanced chips remains strong, even as valuation concerns persist.

Larry Ellison vs. Netflix: the battle intensifies

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in to personally guarantee $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, a move designed to undermine the key defense used by Warner’s board to support a rival deal with Netflix.

The amendment, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday, directly addresses Warner Bros. Discovery’s claims last week that Paramount’s financing was “illusory.” By providing an irrevocable personal guarantee, Ellison—the world’s fifth-richest individual—has effectively backed the bid with his $246 billion fortune, supporting an offer led by his son, David Ellison, CEO of Paramount.

The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery has become a high-stakes showdown between traditional Hollywood and the streaming frontier. Paramount has maintained its $30-per-share all-cash offer, valuing WBD at approximately $108.4 billion including debt. This contrasts with the $82.7 billion cash-and-stock deal WBD recently reached with Netflix, which includes separating the company’s studio and streaming assets from its cable networks.

Given the hostile nature of the bid, Paramount is appealing directly to WBD shareholders, bypassing a board that has so far remained aligned with Netflix’s proposal. Paramount has extended its tender offer deadline to January 21, 2026.

Google Boosts AI Strategy with $5 Billion Investment

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. tech giant had already invested in Intersect and is now deepening its commitment to energy infrastructure.

A picture taken on November 20, 2017 shows logos of US multinational technology company Google. AFP PHOTO / LOIC VENANCE

Google, through its parent company Alphabet, announced the acquisition of energy and data-center infrastructure specialist Intersect Power for $4.75 billion, funded with cash and assumed debt.

The deal is part of Alphabet’s strategy to secure more reliable and sustainable electricity for its rapidly expanding data-center footprint, which underpins core services such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.

[[GOOGL/USD-graph]]

Alphabet had previously invested in Intersect and is now reinforcing its long-term commitment to the energy infrastructure required to support accelerating technological growth.

Betting on data centers

Data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, and demand is rising sharply—particularly due to the energy-intensive nature of AI workloads.

By acquiring Intersect, Alphabet aims to expand its ability to generate and manage power alongside the continued expansion of its U.S. data-center network.

While some of Intersect’s operating assets in Texas and California are excluded from the transaction and will continue to operate independently, the acquisition brings a pipeline of key development projects and deep expertise in energy infrastructure. These capabilities are expected to help Alphabet accelerate the construction and operation of new energy and data hubs.

Alphabet expects to close the transaction in the first half of 2026. The company plans to retain the Intersect brand and leadership team, while integrating it closely with Google’s technical teams to jointly plan the future energy needs of its data centers.

A push into energy

The acquisition highlights how major technology firms are increasingly competing not only for talent and innovation, but also for access to reliable and affordable energy to power the next generation of AI applications.

Google faces growing pressure to secure sufficient electricity as the physical infrastructure behind AI becomes more energy-intensive—a challenge shared across the sector.

Analysts view the move as a strategic step for Alphabet, allowing it to integrate more deeply across the full energy-to-data value chain, improving efficiency and resilience across its global data-center network.

The deal also aligns with Alphabet’s broader sustainability strategy and its track record of investments in clean energy and partnerships with renewable-energy developers.

Gold Surges past $4,440 to All-Time High

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The precious metal is up 68% so far this year, while silver has also broken past its historical peak.

Spot gold prices are posting strong gains on Monday, trading at $4,448.95 per ounce, surpassing the $4,400 mark for the first time and setting a new all-time high. This marks one of the strongest years on record for the precious metal, which has risen 68% year to date.

Driven by heavy central bank purchases, safe-haven inflows, and lower interest rates, bullion is on track for its largest annual gain since 1979.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Silver is following a similar path. The metal extended its rally with a 3% daily gain, reaching a new record of $69.52 per ounce. After breaking its previous peak, silver is trading around $69.20, and in 2025 its price has surged by roughly 138%.

Fed rate-cut expectations fuel the rally

Markets are increasingly focused on the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, particularly after November inflation came in at 2.7%, well below expectations. This has pushed the U.S. dollar lower against major currencies, making gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

Lower interest rates tend to boost demand for real assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, copper prices have also reached record highs, signaling strong investor appetite for commodities more broadly—likely reflecting expectations that inflation may remain elevated for longer.

J.P. Morgan Redefined the Global Economy Based on New Topics

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Wall Street bank argues that the new global cycle will favor sectors linked to technology, energy, and infrastructure, while resource-supplying regions such as Latin America gain relevance.

The global financial system is undergoing a generational shift. According to J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Outlook, the world economy has moved beyond the era of low inflation and highly efficient globalization that dominated recent decades and is entering a new phase shaped by three structural forces: the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, the fragmentation of the international economic order, and a higher, more persistent inflation environment.

Rather than temporary disruptions, the bank argues that these trends are here to stay, forcing investors to rethink both asset allocation strategies and the relative positioning of regions and sectors in the global landscape.

Artificial intelligence: the defining transformation of the cycle

For J.P. Morgan, artificial intelligence represents a technological revolution on par with electrification or the mass adoption of the internet. While the report does not foresee an imminent bubble burst, it does acknowledge signs of overexuberance in certain market segments.

Today, nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is directly influenced by AI-related expectations, whether through infrastructure investment, productivity gains, or expanding corporate margins. The bank highlights that investment in digital infrastructure has accelerated sharply in recent years and that AI-related spending contributed more to U.S. GDP growth than private consumption in 2025.

Still, the report stresses that the key question is not whether AI is a bubble, but who will ultimately capture the economic value of this transition. History suggests that early movers are not always the long-term winners, reinforcing the case for active and selective management across both public and private markets.

Global fragmentation: from efficiency to security

The second major theme of the 2026 Outlook is the fragmentation of global trade and finance. J.P. Morgan describes a world moving away from extreme efficiency toward greater emphasis on resilience, security, and control over strategic resources.

Geopolitical tensions, the return of high tariffs, and the formation of trade blocs are reshaping global value chains. The report notes that globalization as previously understood began losing momentum after the global financial crisis, with recent conflicts accelerating this shift.

In this new environment, sectors tied to energy, defense, critical infrastructure, and supply-chain security emerge as structural winners. Europe, for instance, is undergoing a historic pivot toward higher military and infrastructure spending, marking a departure from the so-called “peace dividend” that defined the post-Cold War era.

Structural inflation and a paradigm shift

The third pillar of the report is inflation. J.P. Morgan argues that prices are unlikely to return to the low-inflation regime that prevailed before the pandemic. Persistent fiscal deficits, population aging, more active industrial policies, and trade fragmentation point to a world where inflation is both more volatile and structurally higher.

“We see several post-pandemic forces that increase the risk of inflationary shocks. The deepest—and hardest to measure—risk is the psychology of consumers and firms. After the pandemic, both groups re-internalized the possibility of inflation, and corporate behavior shifted toward much faster price adjustments,” the report states.

In addition, the bank warns that bottlenecks remain in key sectors: “These constraints create an environment in which prices adjust faster than supply and can remain elevated even amid weak demand. Producers that control these bottlenecks retain significant pricing power.”

Mexican Peso Holds Firm, Edges Higher for the Week

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso showed little movement at the end of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The peso closed stable against the dollar on Friday, ending the week largely unchanged. The local currency showed minimal fluctuations after a week influenced by key policy decisions from multiple central banks, including Banxico.

The exchange rate finished the session at 17.9994 pesos per dollar. Compared with Thursday’s close of 18.0032 pesos per dollar, according to official Banxico data, this represented a marginal gain of 0.02% for the currency, less than a cent.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the day, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.0390 pesos and a low of 17.9887 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies on the Intercontinental Exchange, rose 0.15% to 98.60.

Mexican Peso Performance

Earlier in the day, the peso retreated due to a stronger dollar in the market and following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike to levels not seen in 30 years, along with its statement that further increases could occur in 2026—defining a new trajectory after years of low rates.

Today, the peso was pressured by the strength of the U.S. currency as well as the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, which continues to reduce the attractiveness of the local currency in carry trade strategies.

Mexican Central Bank Policy

On the domestic front, Banxico lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points yesterday, marking the 13th reduction since the easing cycle began last year. The move also narrowed the interest rate differential for carry trades, which could be reflected in the exchange rate.

With today’s close, the peso slightly extended its weekly gain. Compared with last Friday’s official close of 18.0354 pesos, according to the central bank, the current level represents an accumulated gain of 3.60 cents, or 0.20%.

Trump Media & Technology Partners with TAE Technologies

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Donald Trump’s company, TMTG, is set to merge with nuclear fusion energy firm TAE Technologies.

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the social media platform Truth Social and linked to U.S. President Donald Trump, announced a merger agreement with nuclear fusion energy company TAE Technologies valued at more than $6 billion.

The all-stock deal aims to position the combined entity as one of the world’s first publicly traded nuclear fusion energy companies.

Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders of TMTG and TAE will each own approximately 50% of the new group once the transaction is completed. The merger is expected to close in mid-2026, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder consent.

Donald Trump’s company seals a multibillion-dollar deal

TMTG has agreed to contribute up to $200 million in cash at closing, with an additional $100 million available after filing registration documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The newly formed company plans to identify a site and begin construction in 2026 of what it describes as the “first utility-scale fusion power plant,” with an initial generation capacity of 50 megawatts of electricity. Future projects could expand capacity to between 350 and 500 megawatts.

This technology, which seeks to replicate the process that occurs in the sun by fusing light atomic nuclei, promises abundant, stable, and low-emission energy, although it has yet to be commercially proven.

Founded in 1998, TAE Technologies is backed by major investors including Google, Chevron, and Goldman Sachs. The company has built and operated several fusion reactor prototypes and has raised more than $1.3 billion in private capital, according to reports.

Diversified business strategy

Beyond fusion energy, TAE also operates business units focused on energy storage and bioscience solutions.

For Trump Media, which suffered significant operating losses and a sharp decline in its share price during 2025, the deal represents an effort to diversify into highly complex technology and energy sectors, following earlier expansion into crypto assets and financial services.

TMTG shares reacted positively to the announcement, rising more than 24% in premarket trading.

Executives from both companies—Devin Nunes of TMTG and Michl Binderbauer of TAE—will serve as co-chief executives of the new entity, which will also include divisions such as TAE Power Solutions and TAE Life Sciences under the Trump Media & Technology Group umbrella.