Mexican Peso Ends Flat Against the Dollar After Banxico Rate Cut

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The widely anticipated rate cut left markets largely unmoved, shifting attention to the central bank’s outlook for next year.

The Mexican peso finished Thursday’s session with minimal changes against the U.S. dollar. The local currency edged slightly higher as markets digested economic data from Mexico and the United States, while focusing on a well-telegraphed interest rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The exchange rate closed at 18.0032 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.0154 in the previous session, according to official Banxico data. This represented a modest gain of 1.22 centavos, or 0.07%.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range of 18.0243 at the high and 17.9609 at the low. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.04% to 98.44.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Banxico Cuts Rates Again

Banxico announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, its twelfth consecutive reduction, bringing the rate to 7%. The move was widely priced in by markets. The decision was split, with four board members voting in favor of the cut and one—Jonathan Heath—voting to keep rates unchanged.

Looking ahead, policymakers left the door open to further easing, while stressing that future decisions will depend on factors that could reignite inflationary pressures.

The central bank highlighted the peso’s appreciation since its previous meeting and warned of weak economic growth, citing uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions as “significant downside risks.”

On inflation, Banxico noted that headline inflation rose from 3.63% in early October to 3.80% in November, while core inflation increased from 4.24% to 4.43%, driven mainly by non-food goods. However, inflation expectations for 2025 declined.

Overall, Banxico deemed it appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle, taking into account the inflation outlook, the stronger peso, subdued economic activity, and potential impacts from changes in trade policy.

Economic Data in Focus

In the United States, consumer prices rose less than expected in the year through November. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release monthly inflation figures due to disruptions caused by a prolonged government shutdown.

On the domestic front, Mexico’s retail sales rose 0.4% month over month in October, after remaining flat in September, and posted an annual increase of 3.5%. This marked the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year growth.

Inflation in the U.S. Falls to 2.7%, Below Expectations

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below the 3% level recorded in September. Markets had expected inflation of 3.1%, but the figure surprised to the downside.

Lingering effects from the government shutdown continue to cloud the data. U.S. inflation rose less than expected in November. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.7% year over year, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the figure marks a deceleration from September’s 3% reading and came in below the 3.1% forecast by market analysts.

Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—rose 2.6% year over year in November, also below expectations that hovered near 3%. By comparison, headline CPI had increased 3% over the 12 months through September.

Questions over data reliability

Economists cautioned that the figures should be interpreted carefully, as they are the first inflation readings released since the federal government shutdown ended in mid-November.

Analysts noted that the softer-than-expected CPI reading may partly reflect delays in data collection toward the end of the month, when retailers offered seasonal holiday discounts. As a result, they anticipate a potential acceleration in inflation in December.

Market impact

Given the government shutdown and the lack of fully reliable data, today’s inflation reading is likely to be met with some skepticism. Still, it clearly supports the debate over the pace and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Markets had previously priced in two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026—one in April and another between July and September—but are now increasingly factoring in a third cut of the same size in December.

U.S. Treasury bonds reflected the shift in expectations, with 2-year and 10-year yields trading at 3.45% and 4.11%, respectively, showing compressions of 3–4 basis points. Equity markets also reacted positively, as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures accelerated following the inflation release.

The October “data black hole”

The BLS did not publish October CPI figures after the 43-day government shutdown prevented data collection during that month. As a result, the agency canceled the release, noting that price data could not be gathered retroactively.

The statistics office acknowledged that it “cannot provide specific guidance to data users on how to interpret the missing October observations.”

The prolonged shutdown also disrupted labor market data, as the U.S. government failed to release the October unemployment rate—for the first time in the country’s history.

S&P Upgrades Argentina’s Sovereign Debt Rating

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The rating was raised from CCC to CCC+, the same level seen in the final year of the previous administration.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech.

Markets believe that the removal of capital controls could pave the way for further upgrades.

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Argentina’s long-term sovereign debt rating on Wednesday from CCC to CCC+, citing lower inflation, a sustained fiscal surplus, and stronger political backing following the recent legislative elections.

In its report, the rating agency stated that the outlook on Argentina’s debt remains “stable,” although market participants expect it could be revised to “positive” if current trends continue.

The new rating matches Argentina’s standing in 2023, when country risk stood near 2,000 basis points—compared with below 570 today—highlighting a disconnect that investors attribute to pending structural reforms, particularly in the foreign exchange regime. Many believe further progress, such as the elimination of capital controls, would justify a stronger rating.

In line with this view, financial analyst Leonardo Svirsky said that “based on current market pricing and Argentina’s policy performance, the rating should be significantly higher.” He added that “at a minimum, it should be BB, and Morgan Stanley should upgrade Argentina back to emerging market status.”

S&P raised the foreign-currency credit rating from CCC to CCC+, while the local-currency rating was upgraded from SD (selective default) to CCC+.

Argentina Gradually Returns to International Debt Markets

It is worth noting that last week Argentina returned to international dollar debt markets for the first time in eight years. Ahead of major maturities in January, the country raised USD 1 billion through a four-year bond issued at a yield of 9.26%.

The Ministry of Economy now faces the challenge of securing financing without a substantial buildup of international reserves, which explains why the bond’s yield is still considered high by New York standards. In this context, the government announced this week that starting in 2026 it will implement a plan to rebuild reserves, linked to rising demand for pesos and increased foreign currency inflows through the official foreign exchange market.

Bitcoin Remains Stuck at $87.500 but Altcoins Slide Down

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is finding stability, but markets are waiting for the U.S. inflation report to gauge the next bout of volatility.

Bitcoin's price movement is unpredictable right now. — Bitcoin’s price movement is unpredictable right now.

The crypto market is trading broadly lower, with Bitcoin (BTC) as the main exception. BTC is posting modest gains and hovering around $87,139, according to Binance. Investor sentiment remains cautious after disappointment over the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and continued outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with attention now firmly focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Ethereum (ETH) is down 2.5% at $2,854, while altcoins are seeing widespread losses. BNB is slipping 2.5%, Ripple (XRP) is down 2.2%, and Solana (SOL) is leading declines with a 3.1% drop.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Can Bitcoin Still Reach a New All-Time High?

While it may seem unrealistic for Bitcoin to surpass the $126,272 level amid economic uncertainty and tight liquidity weighing on risk assets, some analysts argue otherwise.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Grayscale Research believe Bitcoin will exceed its previous peak, even though 2026 is widely expected to be a year of consolidation or pullback. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, with three years of strong gains followed by sharp corrections.

Hougan argues that the forces behind past cycles have weakened, while new structural drivers are emerging. “We believe the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026, as platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin allocating,” he said.

In what analysts call the “institutional era,” Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs, breaking away from its traditional four-year cycle.

Federal Reserve Signals in Focus

U.S. interest rates remain above their theoretical neutral level, while inflation—still above target—is expected to ease in the coming months, according to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Speaking to CNBC, Waller suggested the Fed’s policy rate is “perhaps 50 to 100 basis points above neutral,” referring to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity. “We still have some room to ease,” he said.

His comments follow the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut last week, which brought the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, as policymakers aimed to support the labor market despite persistent—though stable—inflation pressures.

Data released this week, delayed by a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and therefore not considered at the Fed’s December meeting, showed stronger-than-expected job growth in November, while the unemployment rate rose slightly more than anticipated.

Uncertainty now surrounds the Fed’s next move in early 2026. CME’s FedWatch tool currently assigns a roughly 73% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January meeting.

Mexican Peso Pulls Back After 17-Month High

Posted on December 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The peso slipped as the U.S. dollar rebounded, amid uncertainty over the future path of the Fed’s key rate and one day ahead of Mexico’s local monetary policy decision.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in Wednesday’s session. The local currency pulled back as the greenback regained strength, with markets weighing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and ahead of Thursday’s domestic policy announcement.

Mexican Peso – U.S. Dollar Outlook

The exchange rate closed at 18.0154 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.9509, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the move represented a loss of 6.45 cents, or 0.26%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 18.0499 and a low of 17.9572 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.17% to 98.39 points.

The peso retreated after its recent positive streak and a weaker dollar pushed it on Tuesday to its strongest level since July 2024 (a 17-month high). Wednesday’s decline came alongside a renewed strengthening of the dollar, as markets focused on signals from the Fed.

Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said there was still room for interest rate cuts due to concerns about a softening labor market, following three consecutive adjustments. While a divided Fed cut rates last week, it also signaled that further reductions are unlikely in the near term. Markets are now awaiting remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Data of Mexico

On the local front, investors are looking ahead to Banxico’s final monetary policy decision of the year on Thursday. Analysts expect the central bank to deliver a twelfth consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, which would bring the benchmark rate down to 7%.

Meanwhile, the currency pair continues to trade with low volume and limited conviction, hovering around the 18-peso level, which has held as initial resistance. Thin interest and small flows are contributing to notable liquidity gaps.

Wall Street Bets Microsoft Could Reach a $5 Trillion Market Cap

Posted on December 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Analysts argue that the real story lies in how the tech giant has established its own independent role in the AI market.

Microsoft Stock Climbs to all time highs.

Microsoft is drawing growing attention on Wall Street thanks to its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution—and not solely because of its relationship with OpenAI. As a result, analysts believe the company could eventually reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion.

While the two companies remain closely linked, experts say the more compelling narrative is how Microsoft has built an independent foothold in AI, leveraging multiple technological fronts to expand both its business and its market value.

For many Wall Street executives, the Satya Nadella–led tech giant is well positioned to jump to a $5 trillion market cap in 2026, up from roughly $3.6 trillion today, driven by the integration of AI across its core products and services.

Such growth would reflect Microsoft’s ability to capitalize on rising demand for AI technologies without relying entirely on a single partner or underlying model.

Microsoft beyond OpenAI

The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI dates back to 2019, when Microsoft made an initial $1 billion investment in the then-emerging AI startup led by Sam Altman.

That commitment later expanded to nearly $13 billion, as confirmed by Nadella himself, positioning Microsoft as the exclusive provider of cloud infrastructure and computing power to train and deploy OpenAI’s most advanced models.

The partnership gave Microsoft preferential access to cutting-edge AI technologies, while OpenAI benefited from Azure’s massive cloud platform to scale its models and services.

However, industry experts note that Microsoft no longer depends solely on OpenAI for its AI strategy. The company is also developing its own capabilities and collaborating with a wide range of technology partners, thereby diversifying its sources of innovation and growth.

“Microsoft has such a dominant presence across its entire suite that it will be able to integrate and effectively become a copilot in that sense,” said Logan Brown, founder of software development platform Soxton.AI.

A strong technology ecosystem

Part of Microsoft’s strength lies in its combination of operating systems (such as Windows), cloud services (Azure), and AI-powered tools (like Copilot), which are seeing growing adoption among businesses and consumers alike.

The broad integration of AI into widely used products reinforces investor confidence in the durability of Microsoft’s business model and its competitive edge over other tech giants.

In addition, key figures in the industry, including Bill Gates, have noted that while AI is advancing rapidly, there remains significant uncertainty around how the technology will evolve in the years ahead.

Even so, Gates views Microsoft as a clear contender in the race to shape the future of AI, reinforcing the narrative that the company is well positioned beyond its partnership with OpenAI.

The combination of strategic investments, internal development, and technological alliances has been well received by analysts. Expectations that Microsoft can expand its market value and cement its leadership in artificial intelligence have resonated on Wall Street, which sees the company as a player capable of sustaining—and increasing—its relevance in the next digital era.

Bitcoin Rises to $90,000 but Still Awaits a Market Catalyst

Posted on December 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The cryptocurrency market is trading with a mixed tone and modest moves on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) is up 2.4% at $89,222, according to Binance, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2,974, with both assets posting gains.

Altcoins are broadly following the same pattern, recording mild advances. Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are leading the gains, up around 1.5%, while most other tokens are rising by less than that.

Ongoing outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have intensified pressure on the leading cryptocurrency, as sustained withdrawals have raised concerns about weakening institutional demand. In this context, a key source of support that had underpinned Bitcoin’s rally earlier this year has faded.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

At the same time, recent U.S. payroll data pointed to slower job growth alongside a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, failing to provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with a clear signal of cooling that would justify interest rate cuts.

As a result, markets have become less confident about the pace of future rate reductions, a factor that has weighed on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Attention is now turning to U.S. inflation data due to be released on Thursday.

Traditional markets

Meanwhile, major Wall Street indices are trading higher in Wednesday’s premarket session, as investors await additional economic data to assess the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and keep an eye on geopolitical tensions in Venezuela that have pushed oil prices higher.

Comments are expected later in the day from several influential Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, which could provide further clarity on the policy outlook.

In this environment, the S&P 500, which tracks the largest companies listed in New York, is up 0.34%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gains 0.40%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also higher, rising 0.21%.

Oil Jumps More Than 2% After Donald Trump Blocks Venezuela

Posted on December 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Brent crude rebounded above $60 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total” blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers. WTI also posted gains of more than 2%.

Oil market shocked after Venezuela was blocked.

Brent crude prices climbed more than 2% on Wednesday, recovering ground after Trump said the United States would impose a sweeping blockade on all oil tankers operating to and from Venezuela.

The European benchmark rose back above $60 a barrel—a level it had fallen below on Tuesday for the first time since the autumn. Brent was trading at $60.23, up 2.22% from the previous session’s close.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, gained 2.29% to $56.39 a barrel, erasing much of the losses accumulated in recent sessions.

Rising tensions around Venezuela

The rally followed Trump’s decision to label the “regime” of Nicolás Maduro a terrorist organization and accuse Venezuela of “seizing” U.S. oil. The president demanded the “immediate” return of oil, land, and other assets that he claimed had been “stolen” from Washington.

Trump said Venezuela is “completely surrounded by the largest navy ever assembled in the history” of the region and warned that pressure on the country “will only intensify.”

“The impact will be something never seen before, until they return to the United States all the oil, land, and other assets,” the U.S. president said.

Oil Outlook for 2026

OPEC projects that global oil consumption will average 106.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026, representing a 1.38% increase from this year. Growth is expected to be led by the United States, Asia, and Latin America, according to the cartel’s December monthly report.

The organization links this increase to expectations that the global economy will maintain a growth rate of 3.1% in both 2025 and 2026. For the year now ending, OPEC estimates average consumption of 105.14 mbd, up 1.3% from 2024.

“This forecast is based on sustained economic and petrochemical activity in the major consuming nations, which is expected to support demand for transportation fuels and distillates in 2026,” OPEC said in its analysis.

Argentina Set to Post the Second-Fastest Growth in South America in 2026

Posted on December 16, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The country is also expected to outperform most nations in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Argentina is set to record one of the strongest economic growth rates in Latin America in 2026, trailing only a handful of countries, according to a recent report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

Based on the organization’s projections, Argentina’s economy is expected to expand by 3.8% in 2026, second only to Paraguay in South America, which is forecast to grow by 4.5%. Even so, this would mark a slowdown compared with the outlook for the end of the current year, when growth is projected at 4.3%.

Across the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean, growth rates higher than Argentina’s are expected only in Costa Rica (+3.9%), Honduras (+3.9%), Antigua and Barbuda (+5%), and Guyana (+24%). Guatemala is also projected to grow by 3.8%, matching Argentina’s pace.

Argentine assets on Wall Street

Argentine stocks listed in New York are also trading mostly higher. Among ADRs, banking stocks such as Grupo Supervielle (+3.1%) and Grupo Financiero Galicia (+3.0%) are leading gains, while Loma Negra is down 0.9%.

At the local level, the S&P Merval index is up 1.5% at 3,056,737.41 points, while its dollar-denominated counterpart rises 0.8% to 1,985.69 points. Shares are broadly higher, led by Aluar (+5.1%), Banco Macro (+2.8%), and BBVA Argentina (+2.4%).

Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds are also posting average gains of around 0.8%, led by the Global 2035. In this context, Argentina’s country risk index is falling sharply, breaking below 580 basis points to 573 bps.

iRobot Files for Bankruptcy as Shares Plunge More Than 70%

Posted on December 16, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The outcome of the robot maker’s restructuring will also mean that iRobot’s common shares will stop trading on the stock market.

iRobot Corporation, globally known as the maker of Roomba robotic vacuum cleaners, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a Delaware court and announced that it will become a privately held company following an acquisition by its main manufacturing partner and lender, Picea Robotics.

Chapter 11 is a financial restructuring mechanism under U.S. bankruptcy law that allows companies to reorganize their debts and operations under court supervision while continuing to operate.

In this case, iRobot reached a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with its secured lender and manufacturing partner, Shenzhen PICEA Robotics, along with its affiliate Santrum Hong Kong. Under the agreement, Picea will acquire 100% of iRobot through the restructuring process.

Roomba maker files for bankruptcy

The company expects the largely prepackaged process—meaning key terms were agreed in advance with creditors—to be completed by February 2026.

Under the RSA, Picea will receive full ownership of the company, eliminating iRobot’s debt and significantly reducing its financial burden, allowing the reorganized business to continue normal operations.

During the restructuring, iRobot said it will continue operating as usual, including the functionality of its products (such as Roomba apps and device support), customer service programs, relationships with global partners, and its supply chain, with no anticipated disruptions.

A streamlined company

As part of the restructuring, iRobot’s common shares will be delisted and canceled, meaning current shareholders will receive no equity in the reorganized company and no recovery on their investment if the plan is approved by the court. As a result, shares trading on Nasdaq plunged more than 70% on the day.

The bankruptcy filing follows several years of financial challenges for the company. Founded in 1990, iRobot was a pioneer in the household cleaning robot market but has faced intensifying competition from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers offering more advanced features, as well as pressure from tariffs on products made in Asia.

The company also struggled after the collapse of a planned acquisition by Amazon in 2024, which ultimately failed to materialize.