Speculation Heats Up Over the Fed’s Next Move as Mixed Jobs Data Return

Posted on November 20, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The long-delayed September employment report has created more questions than answers for markets as the Federal Reserve approaches its final policy meeting of the year.

While job growth came in far stronger than expected, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly—enough to keep Wall Street unsure about whether a rate cut is still on the table for December 10.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the projected 53,000. However, August’s figures were revised sharply downward—from a gain of 22,000 jobs to a loss of 4,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, brushing up against the Fed’s upper tolerance limit of 4.5%.

The September nonfarm payrolls report, originally scheduled for release on October 3, became the first major indicator delayed by the government shutdown. Because the BLS had already completed data collection when the shutdown began on October 1, the report was among the first to be published once operations resumed.

Markets Reassess: What Will the Fed Do Now?

Before the unemployment data was released, investors were confident the Fed would hold rates steady. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets as of yesterday assigned a 70% probability to no change.

That conviction was supported by increasingly hawkish comments from Fed officials in recent weeks, including Chair Jerome Powell. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, published Wednesday, also reinforced expectations of an extended pause, noting that “many” policymakers saw it as appropriate to keep rates unchanged through the rest of 2025.

Market expectations were further shaped by the BLS’s announcement that October’s jobs report—crucial for evaluating labor market trends—will only be released after the December policy meeting and will not include the unemployment rate.

But September’s uptick in unemployment, combined with downward revisions to August job growth, has revived speculation about a possible rate cut. As of Thursday, the likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady dropped to 56%, according to FedWatch.

White House Rushes to Stop Plan That Threatens Nvidia’s China Exports

Posted on November 20, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The revelation comes just hours after the world’s most valuable chipmaker reported another blockbuster quarter. The bill heading to a congressional vote has the backing of Microsoft and Amazon.

Nvidia’s enormous influence over the U.S. economy became even more evident this week. Shortly after the company once again beat Wall Street expectations, reports surfaced that the Trump administration asked Republican lawmakers to vote down a proposal that would restrict Nvidia’s ability to export its advanced AI chips to China and other “countries of concern.”

The measure—called the GAIN AI Act (Guaranteeing AI Innovation and National Access)—was introduced last week by a bipartisan group of senators. Its goal is to impose a “U.S.-first” rule on export licenses for high-end AI chips.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

In broad terms, the bill would:

Require companies exporting top-tier AI chips to certify that U.S. buyers had the first chance to purchase them.
Impose at least a 15-business-day public notice period before major export deals, allowing U.S. firms, startups, and universities to submit competing bids.
Direct the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security to scrutinize exports to “countries of concern,” including China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba—as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
Chips not designed or sold for data-center use would be exempt, meaning the bill targets the GPUs powering large-scale cloud AI, recommendation engines, and ChatGPT-style models.

A Win for Nvidia—But a Headache for Microsoft and Amazon?

According to Bloomberg, Trump administration officials are working behind the scenes to rally votes against the bill—a significant win for Nvidia, which has openly lobbied against it. The company argues that U.S. customers are not facing shortages that justify new export restrictions.

“By trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist, the proposed bill would limit global competition across any industry that uses conventional compute chips,” a spokesperson told Reuters last month.

If GAIN AI is ultimately blocked, it would clear the way for Nvidia to continue shipping advanced AI chips to data centers in countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In fact, the U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday approved exports equivalent to up to 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell-class chips to firms based in both Middle Eastern nations.

Bitcoin Holds Above $90,000 but Is Still Down 30% From Its Record

Posted on November 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is undergoing a sharp 30% correction from this year’s high. What should investors expect going forward?

Bitcoin is down again after losing support around $92K.

The crypto market is trading cautiously on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2.4% in the last 24 hours, hovering near $90,400 — its weakest level since April, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) has fallen 3.8% to $2,982.

Altcoins are also deep in negative territory: XRP leads losses with a 5.7% drop, followed by Dogecoin (-4.3%), BNB (-3.6%), and Solana (-3.4%).

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

A Risk-Off Mood and Bitcoin’s Psychological Battle

BTC’s yearly high of $126,300 was widely seen as a zone of euphoria. Given the current macro backdrop, it triggered a sharp pullback — now totaling 28.4%. Many asset managers have shifted into “risk-off” mode, reducing exposure to higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

This cautious stance stems largely from the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see approach ahead of September employment data following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Markets expect strong labor numbers despite the uncertain backdrop, raising doubts about a possible December rate cut.

Adding to the tension, Donald Trump has reportedly settled on his preferred candidate for the next Fed chair and may announce it soon. The news has rattled investors concerned about the central bank’s independence under Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

For Bitcoin specifically, holding above the $90,000 zone is viewed as a sign of a controlled correction. Maintaining that level is also a psychological win for BTC, whose next moves will depend heavily on ETF flows, institutional demand, and sentiment around major tech stocks.

Opportunities in This Environment

Bitcoin’s volatility is nothing new — these swings are natural and expected. They won’t be the last. These pullbacks also create opportunities for responsible users (not short-term speculators) to rethink their strategy, whether that means accumulating, diversifying, or reassessing risk.

At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index has remained in “Extreme Fear” for eight consecutive days — a classic capitulation phase that historically precedes market bottom formation. This process tends to flush out speculative excess and sets the stage for a rebuilding cycle with cleaner fundamentals and greater potential for institutional inflows.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar for the Second Straight Session

Posted on November 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, is up 0.32%, reaching 99.87 points.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar on Wednesday, marking its second consecutive session of losses, pressured by a stronger greenback and ahead of key U.S. employment data.

According to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the exchange rate closed at 18.3592 pesos per dollar, a 0.11% depreciation, or 2.02 centavos, compared with Tuesday’s close.

Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.32% to 99.87, reflecting renewed dollar strength.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Analysts noted that the exchange rate’s behavior does not imply an absence of tension; rather, it signals a market in “pause mode,” waiting for upcoming catalysts. These include the release—finally resuming after the prolonged U.S. government shutdown—of key macroeconomic data such as employment and inflation, as well as updated speculative positioning data, where the last CFTC report showed extremely heavy long bets on the peso.

If speculative positions show excessive leveraged longs on the peso, a correction toward levels above 18.40 could emerge.

On the other hand, U.S. data and the tone of the Federal Reserve will be crucial. Any disappointment in labor-market figures or signs pointing toward a rate cut would strengthen the peso; the opposite could trigger a rebound in the dollar.

For the overnight session, analysts expect the exchange rate to trade between 18.31 and 18.42 pesos per dollar, considering the stronger dollar and upcoming U.S. employment data.

Mexican Stock Market

Mexican equities rose on Wednesday after four straight sessions of losses, supported by gains in Industrias Peñoles and Cementos de México (Cemex).

The benchmark S&P/BMV IPC of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), which tracks the most traded local stocks, climbed 0.49% to 62,258.41 points.
The FTSE BIVA of the Institutional Stock Exchange (Biva) advanced 0.37% to 1,239.98 points.

Bitcoin Crash Triggers Record Investor Exodus From a BlackRock Fund

Posted on November 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The turmoil centers on BlackRock’s IBIT fund, managed by Larry Fink’s firm. It suffered its largest single-day outflow since launch, delivering another blow to the cryptocurrency market.

BlackRock saw $523 million in outflows from the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Tuesday, marking its fifth consecutive day of net redemptions. It’s a significant setback for the crypto market, which is facing multiple near-term challenges.

The sustained withdrawals of recent weeks point to growing bearish sentiment, despite the fund having amassed more than $72 billion in assets and nearly $26 billion in inflows earlier this year.

BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager, led by Larry Fink—recorded $523 million in redemptions from IBIT on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

On the same day, Bitcoin fell below a key price level, leaving investors across the 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs sitting on collective losses. These funds have suffered over $3 billion in outflows so far in November, with nearly $2 billion pulled from IBIT alone.

Bitcoin Extends Its Historic Slide

Since reaching its all-time high of $126,300 in October, Bitcoin has undergone a correction of nearly 30%, and has yet to recover from the steep decline. By dropping below a crucial support level, BTC has pushed U.S. ETF investors into widespread losses.

The combination of ETF outflows and selling by long-term holders has drained market liquidity, pressuring Bitcoin prices in the short term and signaling weakening confidence.

A major crypto options platform also stressed the importance of U.S. monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s decisions:
“With persistent doubts about the strength of the U.S. labor market and the odds of a December rate cut now little better than a coin toss, there are very few macroeconomic catalysts to fuel optimism as the year draws to a close.”

Bank of America to Pour Billions of Dollars Into Artificial Intelligence

Posted on November 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The bank aims to use artificial intelligence to allow each banker to cover more clients, personalize financial advice, and significantly increase the productivity of its internal developers.

Bank of America, one of Wall Street’s largest financial institutions, is allocating a substantial portion of its technology budget—around $13 billion—to accelerate its digital strategy. Roughly $4 billion of that is specifically dedicated to emerging technologies, with artificial intelligence (AI) at the center of the effort.

As part of this strategy, the bank expects AI-powered tools to enhance both productivity and revenue for its relationship bankers by automating routine tasks, such as preparing documents for client meetings. Thanks to these efficiency gains, a banker who once handled around 15 clients could potentially manage up to 50 clients.

In wealth management, Bank of America is using AI to combine market intelligence with client portfolio data, enabling financial advisors to provide more personalized recommendations.

A Strong Push Into Technology

The bank’s internal adoption of AI is also expanding rapidly. Its roughly 18,000 developers have been using AI agents for software testing and other optimization tasks, achieving reductions of up to 90% in some test processes.

Another standout example is the bank’s virtual assistant, Erica, launched in 2018. Since then, Erica has handled nearly $3 billion customer interactions, performing tasks that would otherwise require around 11,000 employees, such as ordering checks or filing claims.

When asked about AI’s potential impact on jobs, Bank of America’s chief technology officer emphasized that the goal is not workforce reduction, but rather training the bank’s 213,000 employees to use these tools effectively—freeing them from mundane tasks so they can focus on generating more business.

An Innovative Strategy

Bank of America’s approach contrasts with that of other banks—such as Wells Fargo—which have emphasized workforce cuts as a consequence of adopting AI.

The U.S. bank sees artificial intelligence as a lever to boost operational efficiency, expand client coverage per banker, personalize financial advisory services, and significantly increase developer productivity.

It is also embracing a transition in which employees evolve to work alongside AI rather than be replaced by it—reflecting how the banking sector is reshaping its processes and business models in response to the growing influence of artificial intelligence.

Wall Street Ends in the Red as Tech Valuation Fears Shake Markets

Posted on November 18, 2025November 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Market pressure centered on Nvidia, whose shares fell nearly 3%.

Markets Sink. — Markets Sink on high valuations.

U.S. stocks declined again on Tuesday, dragged down by another pullback in technology names as concerns grow over the lofty valuations of companies tied to artificial intelligence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.07% to close at 46,091.68 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.82% to 6,617.37 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the hardest hit, sliding 1.21% to 22,432.85 points.
With these moves, both the Dow and the S&P 500 notched their fourth straight session of losses, while the Nasdaq has fallen in three of the past four sessions.

[[SPX-graph]]

Market pressure was driven largely by Nvidia. Shares of the AI chipmaker fell nearly 3%. Among the “Magnificent Seven,” Amazon posted the steepest decline, dropping more than 4%, while Microsoft slid 2.7%.

The market also digested the announcement of an ambitious alliance that failed to lift the stocks involved. Anthropic said it will invest $30 billion with Microsoft to use its cloud services. In addition, Nvidia and Microsoft will contribute $10 billion and $5 billion, respectively, to the startup.

Investors remain focused on Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings results, scheduled for release on Wednesday after the closing bell. The numbers will be crucial in determining whether the AI boom continues to support sector profits.
If the leading company in the market’s most dynamic segment delivers upbeat guidance and stronger-than-expected earnings, revenue, and margins, it could offer a significant boost to investor sentiment.

Separately, Home Depot shares retreated after the company reported weaker-than-expected results and lowered its guidance for the year.

On Thursday, the September U.S. employment report—delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown—will also be published. Private surveys point to a slowdown in the labor market.

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar as Economic Uncertainty Builds

Posted on November 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, reversed its early gains and slipped 0.03%.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar on Tuesday, following the long holiday weekend in Mexico, amid heightened risk aversion among investors awaiting key economic data releases in both Mexico and the United States later this week.

According to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the exchange rate closed at 18.3390 pesos per dollar, representing a 0.16% depreciation, or 2.88 centavos, compared with Friday’s close.
Today, the exchange rate experienced a downward correction after having been pushed higher by low trading volumes during the holiday, as investor caution increases and risk appetite cools.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Meanwhile, the DXY reversed its early advance and slipped 0.03% to settle at 99.56.

Investors also remain focused on the release of U.S. economic indicators this week, looking for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
For the overnight session, analysts expect the exchange rate to fluctuate between 18.30 and 18.43 pesos per dollar, considering the reactivation of Mexican markets, greater trading volume, and an empty economic calendar for Mexico tomorrow.

Mexican Stock Market

Mexican stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, following the long holiday weekend, as investors await new economic information from both Mexico and the United States.

The S&P/BMV IPC of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) fell 0.55% to 61,984.45 points, while the FTSE BIVA of the Institutional Stock Exchange (Biva) dropped 0.54% to 1,235.37 units, according to final closing data.

With these results, both equity benchmarks recorded their fourth consecutive session of losses, something not seen since June.
On the domestic front, investors are awaiting Thursday’s release of minutes from the Bank of Mexico’s most recent meeting, as well as Friday’s publication of third-quarter GDP.

Nvidia Stock Drops Sharply Just Hours Before Earnings Reveal

Posted on November 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Nvidia shares, the semiconductor giant, are falling sharply this Tuesday on Wall Street, marking their second consecutive session of losses as investors wait for the company’s third-quarter earnings report.

Nvidia's all seeing eye is looking down on Tuesday. — Nvidia’s all seeing eye is looking down on Tuesday.

The tech company’s stock was down 1.54%, trading at $183.90 per share.
In November, Nvidia’s shares have fallen 9.16%. However, for 2025, they still show a strong gain of 36.95%.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

The decline in Nvidia is dragging down U.S. markets amid profit-taking, as investors await the quarterly report to be released tomorrow—a report that will test whether the artificial intelligence momentum that has fueled markets in recent quarters still holds. Attention is centered on Nvidia’s results, which could set the tone for AI-related valuations at a time of uncertainty over interest rates and tech earnings. Specialists warn that the report may be decisive in determining whether the market takes a breather or deepens its correction, as the S&P 500 has already fallen 3.2% from its latest record high.

European and Asian Markets

Around the world, the picture is also negative. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.51%. Local losses are broad-based: Germany’s DAX drops 1.41%, while France’s CAC 40 slides 1.61%. Outside the eurozone, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 retreats 1.25%.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunges 1.72%, while the Shanghai Composite falls 0.81%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi sinks 3.32%, similar to the steep drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225, which falls 3.17%.

In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda throughout the day. Traders remain on alert over the possibility of government intervention, as the yen continues weakening to multi-month lows, surpassing 155 per dollar—a level close to the one that triggered a currency intervention last year.

BTC Stuck at $92K as Fears of a 2026 Bottom Surge

Posted on November 18, 2025November 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Experts warned of further downside for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, while others remain optimistic about a potential rebound.

The cryptocurrency market is trading higher on Tuesday. Bitcoin (BTC), however, is down 0.6% at $93,361, according to Binance. Earlier in the morning, it briefly slipped below the $90,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) is rebounding 0.7% to $3,148.

Altcoins are also moving higher: XRP is up 1.2%, BNB rises 1.9%, and Solana (SOL) jumps 4%. Further behind, Lido Staked Ether (STETH) gains 0.5%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) posts broader gains of 0.5%.
[[BTC/USD-graph]]

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Despite BTC falling to $89,000—its lowest level in seven months—a well-known crypto analyst issued a bold prediction on X, claiming that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could bottom out in October 2026.

His reasoning draws on two prior market cycles:

the 2017–18 cycle, when Bitcoin hit a bottom in December 2018 after peaking in December 2017; and
the 2021–22 cycle, when BTC reached its low in November 2022, one year after its all-time high.

Assuming Bitcoin set its latest market peak on October 6 at $126,200, the next bottom could arrive in October 2026, presenting what he described as an “ideal buying opportunity.”

Since Bitcoin’s all-time high, the crypto market has erased $1.2 trillion in capitalization—about 28% of its total value. According to the analyst, the asset class has effectively entered its “2025 bear market.”

However, other market specialists disagree, suggesting instead that the next crypto-cycle peak may arrive within the next 12 to 36 months. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has deepened its reading of “extreme fear”, reaching levels not seen since February.