Wall Street Extends Gains Ahead of the Holidays

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

As expectations grow for another Federal Reserve rate cut, U.S. equities closed higher again, albeit on thin holiday trading.

Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.

Major Wall Street indexes finished in positive territory on Monday, extending their recent gains. Markets are aiming for a strong year-end performance, even as trading volumes remain subdued during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Thursday for Christmas—factors that typically reduce trading volumes and can amplify price swings.

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Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,872.78, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% to 23,428.83.

Economic data in focus for Fed clues

Last week’s U.S. inflation data further supported the market’s overall momentum. A surprisingly soft reading of the consumer price index (CPI) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could move more quickly to cut interest rates in 2026. The data pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, providing an additional tailwind for equities.

“If the unemployment rate continues to rise, we believe the Fed will respond by lowering its policy rate. Otherwise, Fed cuts in 2026 are likely to come later, only once it becomes clear that inflationary pressures are easing,” said Michael Gapen, economist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.

Investors are also closely watching developments related to the Fed’s leadership transition for further policy signals. With the term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to end in May and U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly interviewing several potential successors, markets are parsing any comments related to interest rates and monetary strategy.

Wall Street movers

Technology stocks drew particular attention after chipmaker Micron Technology jumped 4.1% last week following a strong earnings outlook, reigniting enthusiasm for AI-linked stocks.

The forecast helped restore confidence in a sector that had recently faced pressure from elevated valuations, heavy capital requirements, and concerns over whether demand growth would justify higher prices.

Shares of Oracle Corporation climbed 3.3% after reports that TikTok agreed to sell its U.S. operations to a new joint venture, with Oracle expected to play a key role in providing cloud and data-infrastructure services.

The news lifted Oracle and supported gains across large-cap technology stocks, reflecting continued confidence that demand for advanced chips remains strong, even as valuation concerns persist.

Larry Ellison vs. Netflix: the battle intensifies

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in to personally guarantee $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, a move designed to undermine the key defense used by Warner’s board to support a rival deal with Netflix.

The amendment, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday, directly addresses Warner Bros. Discovery’s claims last week that Paramount’s financing was “illusory.” By providing an irrevocable personal guarantee, Ellison—the world’s fifth-richest individual—has effectively backed the bid with his $246 billion fortune, supporting an offer led by his son, David Ellison, CEO of Paramount.

The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery has become a high-stakes showdown between traditional Hollywood and the streaming frontier. Paramount has maintained its $30-per-share all-cash offer, valuing WBD at approximately $108.4 billion including debt. This contrasts with the $82.7 billion cash-and-stock deal WBD recently reached with Netflix, which includes separating the company’s studio and streaming assets from its cable networks.

Given the hostile nature of the bid, Paramount is appealing directly to WBD shareholders, bypassing a board that has so far remained aligned with Netflix’s proposal. Paramount has extended its tender offer deadline to January 21, 2026.

Google Boosts AI Strategy with $5 Billion Investment

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. tech giant had already invested in Intersect and is now deepening its commitment to energy infrastructure.

A picture taken on November 20, 2017 shows logos of US multinational technology company Google. AFP PHOTO / LOIC VENANCE

Google, through its parent company Alphabet, announced the acquisition of energy and data-center infrastructure specialist Intersect Power for $4.75 billion, funded with cash and assumed debt.

The deal is part of Alphabet’s strategy to secure more reliable and sustainable electricity for its rapidly expanding data-center footprint, which underpins core services such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.

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Alphabet had previously invested in Intersect and is now reinforcing its long-term commitment to the energy infrastructure required to support accelerating technological growth.

Betting on data centers

Data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, and demand is rising sharply—particularly due to the energy-intensive nature of AI workloads.

By acquiring Intersect, Alphabet aims to expand its ability to generate and manage power alongside the continued expansion of its U.S. data-center network.

While some of Intersect’s operating assets in Texas and California are excluded from the transaction and will continue to operate independently, the acquisition brings a pipeline of key development projects and deep expertise in energy infrastructure. These capabilities are expected to help Alphabet accelerate the construction and operation of new energy and data hubs.

Alphabet expects to close the transaction in the first half of 2026. The company plans to retain the Intersect brand and leadership team, while integrating it closely with Google’s technical teams to jointly plan the future energy needs of its data centers.

A push into energy

The acquisition highlights how major technology firms are increasingly competing not only for talent and innovation, but also for access to reliable and affordable energy to power the next generation of AI applications.

Google faces growing pressure to secure sufficient electricity as the physical infrastructure behind AI becomes more energy-intensive—a challenge shared across the sector.

Analysts view the move as a strategic step for Alphabet, allowing it to integrate more deeply across the full energy-to-data value chain, improving efficiency and resilience across its global data-center network.

The deal also aligns with Alphabet’s broader sustainability strategy and its track record of investments in clean energy and partnerships with renewable-energy developers.

Gold Surges past $4,440 to All-Time High

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The precious metal is up 68% so far this year, while silver has also broken past its historical peak.

Spot gold prices are posting strong gains on Monday, trading at $4,448.95 per ounce, surpassing the $4,400 mark for the first time and setting a new all-time high. This marks one of the strongest years on record for the precious metal, which has risen 68% year to date.

Driven by heavy central bank purchases, safe-haven inflows, and lower interest rates, bullion is on track for its largest annual gain since 1979.

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Silver is following a similar path. The metal extended its rally with a 3% daily gain, reaching a new record of $69.52 per ounce. After breaking its previous peak, silver is trading around $69.20, and in 2025 its price has surged by roughly 138%.

Fed rate-cut expectations fuel the rally

Markets are increasingly focused on the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, particularly after November inflation came in at 2.7%, well below expectations. This has pushed the U.S. dollar lower against major currencies, making gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

Lower interest rates tend to boost demand for real assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, copper prices have also reached record highs, signaling strong investor appetite for commodities more broadly—likely reflecting expectations that inflation may remain elevated for longer.

J.P. Morgan Redefined the Global Economy Based on New Topics

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Wall Street bank argues that the new global cycle will favor sectors linked to technology, energy, and infrastructure, while resource-supplying regions such as Latin America gain relevance.

The global financial system is undergoing a generational shift. According to J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Outlook, the world economy has moved beyond the era of low inflation and highly efficient globalization that dominated recent decades and is entering a new phase shaped by three structural forces: the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, the fragmentation of the international economic order, and a higher, more persistent inflation environment.

Rather than temporary disruptions, the bank argues that these trends are here to stay, forcing investors to rethink both asset allocation strategies and the relative positioning of regions and sectors in the global landscape.

Artificial intelligence: the defining transformation of the cycle

For J.P. Morgan, artificial intelligence represents a technological revolution on par with electrification or the mass adoption of the internet. While the report does not foresee an imminent bubble burst, it does acknowledge signs of overexuberance in certain market segments.

Today, nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is directly influenced by AI-related expectations, whether through infrastructure investment, productivity gains, or expanding corporate margins. The bank highlights that investment in digital infrastructure has accelerated sharply in recent years and that AI-related spending contributed more to U.S. GDP growth than private consumption in 2025.

Still, the report stresses that the key question is not whether AI is a bubble, but who will ultimately capture the economic value of this transition. History suggests that early movers are not always the long-term winners, reinforcing the case for active and selective management across both public and private markets.

Global fragmentation: from efficiency to security

The second major theme of the 2026 Outlook is the fragmentation of global trade and finance. J.P. Morgan describes a world moving away from extreme efficiency toward greater emphasis on resilience, security, and control over strategic resources.

Geopolitical tensions, the return of high tariffs, and the formation of trade blocs are reshaping global value chains. The report notes that globalization as previously understood began losing momentum after the global financial crisis, with recent conflicts accelerating this shift.

In this new environment, sectors tied to energy, defense, critical infrastructure, and supply-chain security emerge as structural winners. Europe, for instance, is undergoing a historic pivot toward higher military and infrastructure spending, marking a departure from the so-called “peace dividend” that defined the post-Cold War era.

Structural inflation and a paradigm shift

The third pillar of the report is inflation. J.P. Morgan argues that prices are unlikely to return to the low-inflation regime that prevailed before the pandemic. Persistent fiscal deficits, population aging, more active industrial policies, and trade fragmentation point to a world where inflation is both more volatile and structurally higher.

“We see several post-pandemic forces that increase the risk of inflationary shocks. The deepest—and hardest to measure—risk is the psychology of consumers and firms. After the pandemic, both groups re-internalized the possibility of inflation, and corporate behavior shifted toward much faster price adjustments,” the report states.

In addition, the bank warns that bottlenecks remain in key sectors: “These constraints create an environment in which prices adjust faster than supply and can remain elevated even amid weak demand. Producers that control these bottlenecks retain significant pricing power.”

Mexican Peso Holds Firm, Edges Higher for the Week

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso showed little movement at the end of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The peso closed stable against the dollar on Friday, ending the week largely unchanged. The local currency showed minimal fluctuations after a week influenced by key policy decisions from multiple central banks, including Banxico.

The exchange rate finished the session at 17.9994 pesos per dollar. Compared with Thursday’s close of 18.0032 pesos per dollar, according to official Banxico data, this represented a marginal gain of 0.02% for the currency, less than a cent.

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During the day, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.0390 pesos and a low of 17.9887 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies on the Intercontinental Exchange, rose 0.15% to 98.60.

Mexican Peso Performance

Earlier in the day, the peso retreated due to a stronger dollar in the market and following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike to levels not seen in 30 years, along with its statement that further increases could occur in 2026—defining a new trajectory after years of low rates.

Today, the peso was pressured by the strength of the U.S. currency as well as the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, which continues to reduce the attractiveness of the local currency in carry trade strategies.

Mexican Central Bank Policy

On the domestic front, Banxico lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points yesterday, marking the 13th reduction since the easing cycle began last year. The move also narrowed the interest rate differential for carry trades, which could be reflected in the exchange rate.

With today’s close, the peso slightly extended its weekly gain. Compared with last Friday’s official close of 18.0354 pesos, according to the central bank, the current level represents an accumulated gain of 3.60 cents, or 0.20%.

Trump Media & Technology Partners with TAE Technologies

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Donald Trump’s company, TMTG, is set to merge with nuclear fusion energy firm TAE Technologies.

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the social media platform Truth Social and linked to U.S. President Donald Trump, announced a merger agreement with nuclear fusion energy company TAE Technologies valued at more than $6 billion.

The all-stock deal aims to position the combined entity as one of the world’s first publicly traded nuclear fusion energy companies.

Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders of TMTG and TAE will each own approximately 50% of the new group once the transaction is completed. The merger is expected to close in mid-2026, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder consent.

Donald Trump’s company seals a multibillion-dollar deal

TMTG has agreed to contribute up to $200 million in cash at closing, with an additional $100 million available after filing registration documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The newly formed company plans to identify a site and begin construction in 2026 of what it describes as the “first utility-scale fusion power plant,” with an initial generation capacity of 50 megawatts of electricity. Future projects could expand capacity to between 350 and 500 megawatts.

This technology, which seeks to replicate the process that occurs in the sun by fusing light atomic nuclei, promises abundant, stable, and low-emission energy, although it has yet to be commercially proven.

Founded in 1998, TAE Technologies is backed by major investors including Google, Chevron, and Goldman Sachs. The company has built and operated several fusion reactor prototypes and has raised more than $1.3 billion in private capital, according to reports.

Diversified business strategy

Beyond fusion energy, TAE also operates business units focused on energy storage and bioscience solutions.

For Trump Media, which suffered significant operating losses and a sharp decline in its share price during 2025, the deal represents an effort to diversify into highly complex technology and energy sectors, following earlier expansion into crypto assets and financial services.

TMTG shares reacted positively to the announcement, rising more than 24% in premarket trading.

Executives from both companies—Devin Nunes of TMTG and Michl Binderbauer of TAE—will serve as co-chief executives of the new entity, which will also include divisions such as TAE Power Solutions and TAE Life Sciences under the Trump Media & Technology Group umbrella.

OpenAI Targets $100B to Surpass Visa and Oracle

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The company could reach a valuation of $830 billion and continue expanding its investments in artificial intelligence.

FILE – The OpenAI logo is seen on a mobile phone in front of a computer screen displaying output from ChatGPT, on March 21, 2023, in Boston. The Italian government’s privacy watchdog said Friday March 31, 2023 that it is temporarily blocking the artificial intelligence software ChatGPT in the wake of a data breach. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer, File)

OpenAI, the artificial intelligence (AI) company best known for developing ChatGPT, is in talks to pursue one of the most ambitious funding rounds in tech history, aiming to raise up to $100 billion and reach a valuation of around $830 billion.

According to sources familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal, the discussions are still at an early stage, but they underscore the scale of the U.S.-based company’s growth ambitions and investment plans.

If completed, the capital raise would rank among the largest private funding rounds ever attempted, far surpassing most previous fundraisings in the technology sector.

The company behind ChatGPT keeps growing

OpenAI’s interest in attracting capital from sovereign wealth funds and other major financial players reflects its growing infrastructure needs and its ongoing development of advanced AI technologies.

The company is targeting the completion of the funding round by the end of the first quarter of next year, although the terms could still change as negotiations progress.

A potential valuation of $830 billion would represent a significant leap from recent funding rounds and from the roughly $500 billion valuation implied by secondary share transactions.

At that level, OpenAI would be worth more than major global companies such as Tencent ($726.4 billion), Visa ($670.1 billion), Oracle ($551.4 billion), and Mastercard ($512.4 billion).

This rapid rise highlights how quickly OpenAI has scaled within the tech ecosystem, driven by the growing adoption of its products and expectations surrounding new applications based on machine learning.

Challenges facing artificial intelligence

The fundraising effort comes at a time when investment in artificial intelligence has begun to show signs of cooling after its initial surge.

Despite strong demand from companies seeking to integrate AI into their operations, some investors remain cautious about the long-term sustainability of massive capital commitments to the sector.

At the same time, the industry faces challenges such as supply chain constraints for key components, including memory chips critical to AI infrastructure.

OpenAI declined to comment on the reports. However, sources close to the process suggest the company is also exploring alternative sources of capital, including potential strategic partnerships with major technology firms.

Recurring rumors point to interest from giants such as Amazon, which is said to be considering an investment of around $10 billion, although no such talks have been publicly confirmed.

These developments add to speculation about a potential initial public offering (IPO), which some analysts believe could value OpenAI at as much as $1 trillion.

Trump Moves to Improve His Public Image with Surprise Benefits

Posted on December 19, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

In less than 24 hours, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of initiatives and benefits targeting different groups.

Some of these include active-duty soldiers, the cannabis industry. Even astronauts are among the groups, along with promises of more to come, as he grapples with weak economic news and declining approval ratings.

The president is going through a rough stretch, marked by slipping poll numbers and a disappointing jobs report. Among Republicans, however, the greatest concern is the growing fear of a defeat in the 2026 midterm elections.

These challenges are compounded by a string of unwelcome headlines for Trump, ranging from a controversial profile of his chief of staff to reactions to his remarks following the death of filmmaker Rob Reiner. At the same time, he faces mounting foreign policy pressures, including a military escalation in the Caribbean amid rising tensions with Venezuela, a high-profile trip to Asia to discuss trade with foreign leaders, and a war in Ukraine that remains unresolved.

Between promises and policies, Trump seeks to improve his image

Last Wednesday, the president delivered a nearly 20-minute prime-time address in a more formal, scripted tone than his almost daily appearances from the Oval Office. In the speech, he claimed that inflation had been brought under control and predicted that prices for “electricity and everything else will drop dramatically.”

He also said he would soon unveil a housing reform plan aimed at addressing a growing affordability crisis. Housing, along with energy prices and the overall cost of living, is expected to be central issues as Republicans prepare for the 2026 legislative elections.

On Thursday, Trump approved the distribution of $1,776 checks to active-duty service members and designated the days before and after Christmas as federal holidays for 2025—a surprise move for Americans preparing for the year-end holiday season.

He also sought to win back support from the cannabis industry by easing regulations on marijuana use and went as far as authorizing a new mission to send astronauts back to the Moon.

In a development favorable to Trump, the board of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts—stacked with allies handpicked by the president—voted on Thursday to rename the Washington venue the Trump-Kennedy Center.

Mexican Peso Ends Flat Against the Dollar After Banxico Rate Cut

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The widely anticipated rate cut left markets largely unmoved, shifting attention to the central bank’s outlook for next year.

The Mexican peso finished Thursday’s session with minimal changes against the U.S. dollar. The local currency edged slightly higher as markets digested economic data from Mexico and the United States, while focusing on a well-telegraphed interest rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

The exchange rate closed at 18.0032 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.0154 in the previous session, according to official Banxico data. This represented a modest gain of 1.22 centavos, or 0.07%.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range of 18.0243 at the high and 17.9609 at the low. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.04% to 98.44.

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Banxico Cuts Rates Again

Banxico announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, its twelfth consecutive reduction, bringing the rate to 7%. The move was widely priced in by markets. The decision was split, with four board members voting in favor of the cut and one—Jonathan Heath—voting to keep rates unchanged.

Looking ahead, policymakers left the door open to further easing, while stressing that future decisions will depend on factors that could reignite inflationary pressures.

The central bank highlighted the peso’s appreciation since its previous meeting and warned of weak economic growth, citing uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions as “significant downside risks.”

On inflation, Banxico noted that headline inflation rose from 3.63% in early October to 3.80% in November, while core inflation increased from 4.24% to 4.43%, driven mainly by non-food goods. However, inflation expectations for 2025 declined.

Overall, Banxico deemed it appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle, taking into account the inflation outlook, the stronger peso, subdued economic activity, and potential impacts from changes in trade policy.

Economic Data in Focus

In the United States, consumer prices rose less than expected in the year through November. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release monthly inflation figures due to disruptions caused by a prolonged government shutdown.

On the domestic front, Mexico’s retail sales rose 0.4% month over month in October, after remaining flat in September, and posted an annual increase of 3.5%. This marked the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year growth.

Inflation in the U.S. Falls to 2.7%, Below Expectations

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below the 3% level recorded in September. Markets had expected inflation of 3.1%, but the figure surprised to the downside.

Lingering effects from the government shutdown continue to cloud the data. U.S. inflation rose less than expected in November. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.7% year over year, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the figure marks a deceleration from September’s 3% reading and came in below the 3.1% forecast by market analysts.

Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—rose 2.6% year over year in November, also below expectations that hovered near 3%. By comparison, headline CPI had increased 3% over the 12 months through September.

Questions over data reliability

Economists cautioned that the figures should be interpreted carefully, as they are the first inflation readings released since the federal government shutdown ended in mid-November.

Analysts noted that the softer-than-expected CPI reading may partly reflect delays in data collection toward the end of the month, when retailers offered seasonal holiday discounts. As a result, they anticipate a potential acceleration in inflation in December.

Market impact

Given the government shutdown and the lack of fully reliable data, today’s inflation reading is likely to be met with some skepticism. Still, it clearly supports the debate over the pace and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Markets had previously priced in two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026—one in April and another between July and September—but are now increasingly factoring in a third cut of the same size in December.

U.S. Treasury bonds reflected the shift in expectations, with 2-year and 10-year yields trading at 3.45% and 4.11%, respectively, showing compressions of 3–4 basis points. Equity markets also reacted positively, as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures accelerated following the inflation release.

The October “data black hole”

The BLS did not publish October CPI figures after the 43-day government shutdown prevented data collection during that month. As a result, the agency canceled the release, noting that price data could not be gathered retroactively.

The statistics office acknowledged that it “cannot provide specific guidance to data users on how to interpret the missing October observations.”

The prolonged shutdown also disrupted labor market data, as the U.S. government failed to release the October unemployment rate—for the first time in the country’s history.