Author: Ignacio Teson

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

Wall Street Closed Higher, With the Dow and S&P 500 at Record Highs

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2%.

Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.
Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.

U.S. stocks finished little changed on Wednesday, though the S&P 500 closed at another record high, joined this time by the Dow Jones, as stronger-than-expected economic growth data bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy.

In addition, data on initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 came in below expectations, while continuing claims through December 13 exceeded forecasts.

By the close, the Dow Jones climbed 0.60% to 48,731.16 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 6,932.05, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.22% to 23,613.31.

[[SPX-graph]]

Wall Street buoyed by Q3 GDP and the Santa Claus rally

Investors were encouraged by data showing that the U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3%, beating expectations.

While the strong reading briefly pushed Treasury yields higher, equity markets were largely unfazed, as traders viewed the data as backward-looking and unlikely to alter the broader policy outlook.

Markets are also entering the period known as the “Santa Claus rally,” a seasonal phenomenon describing the tendency for U.S. stocks to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January. Gains so far this week have kept that seasonal narrative intact.

Despite robust growth data, expectations that the Federal Reserve will eventually ease monetary policy remain broadly unchanged. Interest-rate futures suggest traders continue to price in rate cuts in 2026, against a backdrop of a resilient economy and persistent inflation pressures.

Wall Street movers

Shares of PowerBank Corporation jumped 4.1% on Wednesday after the company announced it had received the first $4 million payment from a $4 million transaction with Solar Advocate Development LLC related to three community solar projects in New York.

Omeros Corporation surged 75.5% after the FDA approved YARTEMLEA, the first and only treatment for transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA).

Do China’s rare-earth restrictions persist despite the Trump-Xi deal?

China continues to restrict exports of rare-earth elements needed by the United States for domestic production of permanent magnets and other products, despite an October agreement between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at easing such restrictions.

According to a Bloomberg report citing more than a dozen consumers, producers, government officials, and trade experts, while China has increased shipments of finished products—mainly permanent magnets—U.S. industry still lacks access to the raw materials needed to manufacture them domestically.

Ongoing supply constraints underscore lingering tensions in U.S.-China relations following the truce reached on October 30 in South Korea, where the United States agreed to cut tariffs and China pledged to restore rare-earth supplies. At the time, Trump described the deal as the “de facto removal” of several Chinese restrictions.

Argentina’s External Debt Hits 46.7% of GDP

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Argentina’s national statistics agency reported that the stock of gross external debt, measured at nominal value, stood at $316.935 billion.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech.

External debt accounted for 46.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2025, marking the highest level since the first quarter of President Javier Milei’s administration.

On Tuesday, INDEC said gross external debt increased by $9.698 billion between July and September, reaching $316.935 billion. This marked the third consecutive quarterly increase.

The agency, headed by Marco Lavagna, recently reported that Argentina’s economic output during the period totaled nearly $905 trillion pesos, equivalent to approximately $679.337 billion, based on the average exchange rate published by the central bank (BCRA). Using this methodology, external debt as a share of the economy reached its highest level since the first quarter of 2024 (56.1%) and the second-highest since the first quarter of 2022 (48.3%).

What drove external debt in the third quarter?

INDEC explained that the increase in liabilities was mainly driven by higher borrowing among non-financial corporations, households, and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs). Rising debt in the government and banking sectors also played a significant role. Within these sectors, loans accounted for most of the increase, while central bank liabilities declined.

Debt owed to international organizations rose by $3.367 billion to $96.521 billion, representing more than 30% of total external debt. Nearly 60% of that amount was owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while over 30% was split between the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Bank (IBRD).

Debt by institutional sector and currency

By institutional sector, the bulk of external debt is held by the government and NPISHs, which together account for nearly 90% of the total. Government debt mainly reflects bonds held by private creditors and loans from international institutions, while NPISH debt is largely tied to foreign direct investment.

In terms of currency composition, 98.4% of external debt in the third quarter was denominated in foreign currency, with more than 70% classified as long-term debt.

Reuters Flags Key Market Drivers for 2026

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

To sustain momentum in 2026, markets will rely on solid corporate earnings, an accommodative Federal Reserve, and tangible returns from investments in artificial intelligence.

The Federal Reserve may soon be filled with Trump's choice members.
The Federal Reserve may soon be filled with Trump’s choice members.

U.S. equity markets head into 2026 with strong investor optimism, driven by a sustained earnings cycle, heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI), and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to a Reuters analysis.

In 2025, major U.S. stock indexes posted double-digit gains for a third consecutive year. The S&P 500 rose more than 17%, continuing to benefit from growth in technology and other high-productivity sectors.

Analysts note that maintaining this momentum into 2026 will depend on companies continuing to deliver solid results, the Fed keeping a broadly accommodative monetary stance, and AI-related investments translating into measurable productivity and profit gains.

Corporate Earnings

Reuters highlights expectations for corporate earnings growth of more than 15% in 2026, with gains broadening beyond the group of large technology companies that have dominated the index. A wider contribution from small- and mid-cap firms, particularly through improved margins and earnings, could provide additional support for the market.

AI Capex

Investment in AI—one of the main drivers of the recent equity rally—remains central to the outlook. However, investors are increasingly focused on seeing concrete returns from that spending before embracing more aggressive growth expectations.

Federal Reserve Policy

Another key factor for 2026 is U.S. monetary policy. After rate cuts totaling 175 basis points between 2024 and 2025, markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver up to two additional reductions next year. Lower rates would help sustain demand for equities and reduce financing costs, though the scale and timing of any moves will depend on inflation trends and overall economic activity.

Geopolitical developments, particularly relations between the United States and China, also loom as a potential source of volatility or upside, depending on how trade and technology tensions evolve.

Overall, U.S. equity markets enter 2026 with a mix of favorable expectations and structural risks. While confidence in corporate earnings remains high, the real impact of AI investment and the direction of monetary policy will be decisive in determining whether the recent bullish trend can be sustained or gives way to more moderate growth.

Bitcoin Loses Momentum, Heads for a Negative 2025

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Risk aversion persists across the crypto market, as investors await a Federal Reserve rate cut to revive interest.

Bitcoin may have hit bottom and could be preparing to climb,
Bitcoin may have hit bottom and could be preparing to climb,

The cryptocurrency market is trading in the red once again, with losses led by the largest-capitalization tokens.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1% to $86,703.67, according to Binance, and is now posting a 6% decline year-to-date. Ethereum (ETH) follows the same trend, slipping 1.4% to $2,896.34.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Altcoins are also broadly lower: Solana falls 1.4%, BNB drops 1.3%, and Ripple (XRP) declines 1.1%.

Bitcoin pressured by ETF outflows

Bitcoin retreated toward the $87,000 level on Wednesday after another failed attempt to regain ground above $90,000, as thin year-end trading conditions and continued outflows from U.S.-listed spot ETFs weighed on market sentiment.

The leading cryptocurrency struggled to gain momentum during early Asian trading, extending a pattern of subdued price action seen in recent sessions.

This lack of follow-through reflects reduced liquidity ahead of the Christmas holidays, with many market participants stepping aside after Bitcoin was repeatedly rejected near the $90,000 resistance level.

Adding further pressure were sustained ETF outflows. Data from crypto analytics firm SoSoValue showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of nearly $500 million last week, signaling waning institutional demand following strong inflows earlier in the year.

Gold Touches Record High of $4,500 as U.S.–Venezuela Tensions Rise

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The precious metal is up as much as 72% year to date, although some analysts warn that thinner liquidity could destabilize prices.

Gold’s Resilience Deepens as Rate-Cut Bets and Geopolitics Shape Outlook
Gold’s Resilience Deepens as Rate-Cut Bets and Geopolitics Shape Outlook

Gold is rising 1% and has returned to record territory after breaking above the $4,500 mark, currently trading around $4,517 per ounce. The metal remains firmly in an uptrend and is on track for one of its strongest years on record, with gains approaching 72% so far this year.

This time, expectations around interest rates have been compounded by rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Market participants continue to view precious metals as an effective way to diversify portfolios and preserve value, suggesting that gold and silver may not yet have reached their peaks.

Spot silver is up 1.6% at $69.67, after touching a record high of $69.98, with year-to-date gains exceeding 141%. In line with gold and silver, spot platinum is advancing 1.9% to $2,165.67, its highest level in more than 17 years, while palladium is also up 1.9% at $1,792.51, marking a three-year high.

The Fed, Venezuela, and liquidity: key drivers behind gold prices

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Against this backdrop, investors sought refuge in gold, which also received support from reports suggesting the president could appoint a new chair of the Federal Reserve as early as January.

Analysts note that gold may remain particularly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in interest-rate expectations. As year-end approaches, reduced liquidity could amplify price swings.

Some expect a period of consolidation during the holiday season as liquidity dries up. However, they argue that the rally should resume in earnest once trading volumes return, with $5,000 per ounce seen as a natural target for gold next year and $75 per ounce as a longer-term objective for silver.

2026 Will Be Argentina’s Strongest Economic Year in Decades

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Argentina’s deputy economy minister said the October elections marked a “key information threshold” that removed uncertainty about the country’s economic direction, arguing that growth next year will be driven by investment.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023.

In an interview with an Argentine outlet, José Luis Daza, the second-in-command to Economy Minister Luis Caputo, projected a markedly improved outlook for Argentina following the legislative elections held last October. In that context, the economist said that “2026 will be the best year for the economy in decades.”

“Today, waiting carries more costs than benefits. Many investments are already getting underway,” Daza said.

The deputy minister also cited a post by Demian Reidel, president of Nucleoeléctrica Argentina S.A., who highlighted the difference between improvising economic policy and designing long-term state policies with method and predictability—an apparent reference to the government’s new approach.

The Future of Argentina

Despite the upbeat projections, political circles in Argentina have been circulating rumors about a possible departure of Daza from the Economy Ministry. Following the presidential victory of José Antonio Kast in Chile, the official confirmed that he had received offers to join the new Chilean cabinet, though he declined to provide details. Asked about the matter by local media, he said he had been “offered some positions,” fueling speculation about his political future.

Daza reiterated that the October elections represented a “key information threshold” that dispelled doubts about the economic course. As a result, he said, growth in 2026 will be led by investment, but—unlike previous expansionary cycles—will take place under conditions of macroeconomic balance, making it more sustainable.

“It will not only be a year of strong growth, but one with orderly public accounts,” he wrote in a message shared on social media.

According to the economist, the election outcome delivered a strong endorsement of the reform agenda led by President Javier Milei, unlocking projects that had previously been put on hold.

Bitcoin Dips to $87,000 on Strategy Reserve Moves

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Risk aversion remains elevated across the crypto market as investors await a potential Federal Reserve rate cut to reignite interest.

Can Bitcoin regain its October highs after a lengthy December decline?
Can Bitcoin regain its October highs after a lengthy December decline?

The cryptocurrency market is trading lower, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 2.4% at $87,856, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) is following the same trend, falling 3% to $2,959.

Altcoins are broadly weaker as well: BNB is down 2.3%, Ripple (XRP) is off 2.6%, and Solana (SOL) declines 3.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin’s rally stalls on U.S. data and Strategy moves

Investor caution has been driven largely by anticipation of key U.S. economic data, adding to the risk-off sentiment that has dominated markets over the past month. Overall losses, however, have been limited by thin trading volumes due to the year-end holiday period.

U.S. third-quarter GDP data are expected to show a slight slowdown in growth compared with the previous quarter, reflecting softer retail spending and a cooling labor market. Investors are also awaiting October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Meanwhile, Strategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has paused BTC purchases in recent weeks and increased its cash reserves, positioning itself for a potential cooling in crypto prices.

In a regulatory filing, the company led by Michael Saylor disclosed that it raised $748 million in the week ending December 21 without buying Bitcoin. Earlier this month, Strategy had purchased roughly $2 billion worth of BTC, bringing its total holdings to 671,268 bitcoins. Strategy’s shares have fallen by roughly half in value so far in 2025.

Traditional markets

Major Wall Street indexes are trading modestly lower on Tuesday, despite the release of some U.S. economic data that came in better than expected. Elsewhere, global markets are posting slight gains.

In this context, the S&P 500 is down 0.02%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edges up 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading flat.

Top gainers include Albemarle (+5.23%), Gilead Sciences (+3.03%), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (+1.13%). On the downside, Hershey (-3.87%) and First Solar (-2.65%) are among the biggest decliners.

Heading into the final stretch of the year, Wall Street indexes are posting broad gains in 2025: the Nasdaq is up 18.54%, the S&P 500 has risen 15.14%, and the Dow Jones is higher by 12.72%.

Fidelity Sees Bitcoin Bull Cycle Ending at $65,000

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Fidelity’s director of research, Jurrien Timmer, said the leading cryptocurrency is likely to follow its historical cycle.

Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.
Bitcoin swung down fast after a quick climb to $90K.

The crypto market is going through a period of heightened uncertainty, as analysts debate whether Bitcoin (BTC) will enter a bullish or bearish phase in 2026. While some forecasts point to $90,000 as a sign of stability, others—including Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director of Research at Fidelity—believe a significant correction is approaching.

Speaking from one of the world’s largest asset managers, Timmer said Bitcoin is heading toward a $65,000 floor, despite maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. His view is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, driven by halving events. Within this framework, the all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6, would have marked the peak of the cycle—both in price and timing.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Based on this four-year pattern, Fidelity expects 2026 to be a down year, with Bitcoin’s current support zone estimated in the $65,000–$75,000 range.

Timmer’s post on X and the outlook for Bitcoin

“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, I’m concerned that Bitcoin may have completed another halving phase of its four-year cycle, both in price and in time,” Timmer wrote in a post on X.

In the same message, he added: “If we visually align all bull markets, we can see that the October peak of around $125,000, after roughly 145 months of gains, fits the expected pattern quite well. Bitcoin winters typically last about a year, so I suspect that 2026 could be a transition or pause year for Bitcoin.”

Market reaction

In terms of price action, the crypto market is trading lower. Bitcoin is down 2.4% at $87,856, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure, falling 3% to $2,959.

Altcoins are broadly weaker as well: BNB is down 2.3%, Ripple (XRP) is off 2.6%, and Solana (SOL) is down 3.3%.

Wall Street Extends Gains Ahead of the Holidays

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

As expectations grow for another Federal Reserve rate cut, U.S. equities closed higher again, albeit on thin holiday trading.

Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.
Nasdaq is up this week as tech stocks perform very well.

Major Wall Street indexes finished in positive territory on Monday, extending their recent gains. Markets are aiming for a strong year-end performance, even as trading volumes remain subdued during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Thursday for Christmas—factors that typically reduce trading volumes and can amplify price swings.

[[SPX-graph]]

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,872.78, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% to 23,428.83.

Economic data in focus for Fed clues

Last week’s U.S. inflation data further supported the market’s overall momentum. A surprisingly soft reading of the consumer price index (CPI) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could move more quickly to cut interest rates in 2026. The data pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, providing an additional tailwind for equities.

“If the unemployment rate continues to rise, we believe the Fed will respond by lowering its policy rate. Otherwise, Fed cuts in 2026 are likely to come later, only once it becomes clear that inflationary pressures are easing,” said Michael Gapen, economist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.

Investors are also closely watching developments related to the Fed’s leadership transition for further policy signals. With the term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to end in May and U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly interviewing several potential successors, markets are parsing any comments related to interest rates and monetary strategy.

Wall Street movers

Technology stocks drew particular attention after chipmaker Micron Technology jumped 4.1% last week following a strong earnings outlook, reigniting enthusiasm for AI-linked stocks.

The forecast helped restore confidence in a sector that had recently faced pressure from elevated valuations, heavy capital requirements, and concerns over whether demand growth would justify higher prices.

Shares of Oracle Corporation climbed 3.3% after reports that TikTok agreed to sell its U.S. operations to a new joint venture, with Oracle expected to play a key role in providing cloud and data-infrastructure services.

The news lifted Oracle and supported gains across large-cap technology stocks, reflecting continued confidence that demand for advanced chips remains strong, even as valuation concerns persist.

Larry Ellison vs. Netflix: the battle intensifies

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in to personally guarantee $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, a move designed to undermine the key defense used by Warner’s board to support a rival deal with Netflix.

The amendment, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday, directly addresses Warner Bros. Discovery’s claims last week that Paramount’s financing was “illusory.” By providing an irrevocable personal guarantee, Ellison—the world’s fifth-richest individual—has effectively backed the bid with his $246 billion fortune, supporting an offer led by his son, David Ellison, CEO of Paramount.

The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery has become a high-stakes showdown between traditional Hollywood and the streaming frontier. Paramount has maintained its $30-per-share all-cash offer, valuing WBD at approximately $108.4 billion including debt. This contrasts with the $82.7 billion cash-and-stock deal WBD recently reached with Netflix, which includes separating the company’s studio and streaming assets from its cable networks.

Given the hostile nature of the bid, Paramount is appealing directly to WBD shareholders, bypassing a board that has so far remained aligned with Netflix’s proposal. Paramount has extended its tender offer deadline to January 21, 2026.

Google Boosts AI Strategy with $5 Billion Investment

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. tech giant had already invested in Intersect and is now deepening its commitment to energy infrastructure.

A picture taken on November 20, 2017 shows logos of US multinational technology company Google. AFP PHOTO / LOIC VENANCE

Google, through its parent company Alphabet, announced the acquisition of energy and data-center infrastructure specialist Intersect Power for $4.75 billion, funded with cash and assumed debt.

The deal is part of Alphabet’s strategy to secure more reliable and sustainable electricity for its rapidly expanding data-center footprint, which underpins core services such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.

[[GOOGL/USD-graph]]

Alphabet had previously invested in Intersect and is now reinforcing its long-term commitment to the energy infrastructure required to support accelerating technological growth.

Betting on data centers

Data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, and demand is rising sharply—particularly due to the energy-intensive nature of AI workloads.

By acquiring Intersect, Alphabet aims to expand its ability to generate and manage power alongside the continued expansion of its U.S. data-center network.

While some of Intersect’s operating assets in Texas and California are excluded from the transaction and will continue to operate independently, the acquisition brings a pipeline of key development projects and deep expertise in energy infrastructure. These capabilities are expected to help Alphabet accelerate the construction and operation of new energy and data hubs.

Alphabet expects to close the transaction in the first half of 2026. The company plans to retain the Intersect brand and leadership team, while integrating it closely with Google’s technical teams to jointly plan the future energy needs of its data centers.

A push into energy

The acquisition highlights how major technology firms are increasingly competing not only for talent and innovation, but also for access to reliable and affordable energy to power the next generation of AI applications.

Google faces growing pressure to secure sufficient electricity as the physical infrastructure behind AI becomes more energy-intensive—a challenge shared across the sector.

Analysts view the move as a strategic step for Alphabet, allowing it to integrate more deeply across the full energy-to-data value chain, improving efficiency and resilience across its global data-center network.

The deal also aligns with Alphabet’s broader sustainability strategy and its track record of investments in clean energy and partnerships with renewable-energy developers.