J.P. Morgan and Citi CEOs Arrive in Argentina Amid Historic Bailout

Posted on October 21, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Citi chief Jane Fraser are arriving in Argentina this Wednesday amid mounting U.S.-led efforts to secure a $40 billion financial support package for President Javier Milei’s government.

Argentina’s new president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023. Libertarian economist Javier Milei was sworn in Sunday as Argentina’s president, after a resounding election victory fuelled by fury over the country’s economic crisis. (Photo by Luis ROBAYO / AFP)

According to The Wall Street Journal, a group of major U.S. banks — including J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs — remain hesitant to approve a $20 billion loan for Argentina without guarantees or collateral. The plan, coordinated by the U.S. Treasury, aims to channel private capital into Argentine sovereign debt while Washington provides an additional $20 billion currency stabilization line, bringing total support to $40 billion.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that “talks remain ongoing” and that further details will be released once the framework is finalized. For now, the loan remains uncertain, pending decisions on whether the Argentine government or Washington will assume the credit risk.

Relevant Meetings and U.S. Support

Dimon is expected to meet with J.P. Morgan’s local team in Buenos Aires, though a meeting with Argentine officials has not yet been confirmed. The visit coincides with a period of close alignment between the Milei administration and the White House, as well as J.P. Morgan’s broader plan to invest $1.5 trillion across key global sectors including energy, mining, and industrials to strengthen U.S. supply chains.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Argentina deal is raising concerns inside the IMF, where some officials fear the Trump administration could prioritize direct U.S. commitments over multilateral lending channels, given the size and geopolitical weight of the proposed package.

Mexican Peso Slips as Dollar Surges Ahead of U.S.-China Deal Talks

Posted on October 21, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso edged lower against the U.S. dollar in the first trading session of the week, as markets awaited updates on U.S.-China trade negotiations and developments surrounding the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 20th day.

The exchange rate closed at 18.4111 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.3899 in the previous session, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). That represented a 2.12-cent loss for the local currency, equivalent to a 0.12% decline. During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 18.4194 and a low of 18.3526. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 98.62 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of official economic data. Even so, traders are hopeful that Friday’s publication of the September inflation report will go ahead, as it will be a key input for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on October 28–29.

Meanwhile, investors remain focused on trade developments. Today’s main catalyst was the easing of tensions between the U.S. and China, with attention now turning to upcoming meetings between officials in Malaysia.

On the domestic front, the week will be defined by the release of economic activity (IGAE) and inflation data, both crucial for assessing whether Banxico will continue cutting interest rates through the remainder of the year.

From a technical perspective, the room for further peso appreciation is narrowing, according to technical indicators, suggesting that the exchange rate may be approaching a correction phase that could drive it toward the 18.70 pesos per dollar level.

Bitcoin Rises 2.5% as Ethereum Nears $4,000

Posted on October 21, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The crypto market rebounded sharply in the past few hours after days of heavy liquidations, supported by encouraging signals from Japan and China and growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before year-end.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 2.5% in the past 24 hours, trading around $110,400, while Ethereum (ETH) has gained 1%, hovering near the $4,000 mark, according to Binance data.

Across the altcoin universe, gains were broad-based. Notable performers include Chainlink (+10.7%), XRP (+5.3%), and Polkadot (+4.1%).

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Drivers Behind the Rally

The rebound was fueled by two key developments in Asia, which also lifted sentiment on Wall Street.

First, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party reached a coalition agreement with the Innovation Party, paving the way for Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime minister on Tuesday.

Second, China reported GDP growth of 4.8% in the third quarter—the slowest in a year but still above expectations. While the figure represents a moderation from 5.2% in Q2, the year-to-date growth rate has already met Beijing’s 5% annual target.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar index slipped slightly to 98.40, giving a further boost to dollar-denominated assets such as bitcoin.

Gold prices remained steady near $4,200, a sign some analysts interpret as potential exhaustion of the metal’s bullish trend—a pattern that has historically preceded renewed strength in BTC.

Fed in Focus

Despite recent volatility, analysts remain optimistic about the outlook for cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin. Markets are increasingly pricing in continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for two more rate cuts in 2025.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors assign nearly a 100% probability that the U.S. central bank will lower its benchmark rate in both October and December.

This week will be crucial for confirming that outlook, as the September inflation report in the United States is set to be released. The data will be a key input for the Fed’s next moves amid a challenging backdrop shaped by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed official economic updates.

Donald Trump Announces Plan to Seal a Trade Deal with Xi Jinping

Posted on October 20, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he intends to seal a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea, and confirmed that he will travel to China early next year.

Trump said that discussions with his Chinese counterpart are “more or less planned” and expressed confidence in reaching a “strong and mutually beneficial” deal between the two global powers.

During a White House reception for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Trump stated that his goal is to “close a fair trade agreement with Beijing,” adding that bilateral relations could stabilize after months of tensions over tariffs and technology restrictions.

The announcement comes in the context of an ongoing tariff dispute between Washington and Beijing that has fueled uncertainty in global markets. Trump, however, downplayed the conflict and voiced optimism about the negotiations.

The meeting between the two leaders is expected to take place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. It will be the first face-to-face encounter between Trump and Xi since the start of Trump’s second term and is expected to focus on setting new rules for technology transfer and market access.

Markets Today – Good News

Wall Street’s main indexes are rallying sharply on Monday as investors look to move past concerns related to regional banks and artificial intelligence. A similar trend is visible across the major stock markets in Asia and Europe, where gains are widespread.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.35% and is nearing its all-time high reached on October 8. Locally, Germany’s DAX rose 1.95% and France’s CAC 40 added 0.39%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.52%.

[[DAX-graph]]

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite advanced 0.63% after data showed China’s economic activity grew 1.1% year-over-year in the third quarter—above expectations—along with industrial production, which rose 6.5% year-over-year.

Morgan Stanley to Issue $8 Billion in Debt

Posted on October 20, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s largest investment banks, priced an $8 billion investment-grade bond offering on Friday—its third deal of this kind in the week following the release of third-quarter earnings by major banks.

The deal, split into four tranches, included an 11-year bond—the longest maturity—which offered a yield 0.9 percentage points above comparable U.S. Treasuries. According to a person familiar with the transaction, the spread was tightened by 25 basis points from initial guidance.

Continued Debt Issuance by Morgan Stanley

During syndication, the bank removed a six-year floating-rate tranche that had initially been included. Morgan Stanley took a similar approach in April, when it pulled a floating-rate portion from an originally five-part deal that also raised $8 billion—matching the size of its January issuance. So far this year, the firm has completed three four-tranche offerings of the same amount, all for general corporate purposes.

The transaction added to the week’s surge in primary market activity: Goldman Sachs raised $10 billion last Tuesday, while JPMorgan issued $5 billion on Wednesday.

All three deals came after the six largest U.S. banks reported strong quarterly results. However, optimism was partially dampened on Thursday when two regional banks disclosed losses tied to fraud involving loans backed by funds investing in distressed commercial mortgage assets.

An Unusual Timing

On Thursday, the average yield on U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds fell to a year-to-date low of 4.69%, while spreads remained near historic lows (below 0.8 percentage points), keeping funding costs attractive for high-quality issuers.

Even so, analysts pointed out that choosing Friday as the issuance date was unusual: historically, only about 1% of high-grade bond deals are launched on that day. In fact, Morgan Stanley’s deal was the only top-tier U.S. corporate bond issuance in the primary market that Friday.

Nassim Taleb Slams Trump for Bailing Out Milei

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan and one of today’s most influential writers, ridiculed both libertarians and Donald Trump for rescuing Argentina.

Taleb Slammed Trump for bailing out Milei.

“Libertarians fundamentally oppose bailing out U.S. companies with public funds and protection mechanisms,” Taleb wrote on Twitter.

“But what if we bail out a foreign country, using public funds and safety nets, just because it has a libertarian president?” the philosopher, economist, and former financial executive mocked.

The Black Swan is widely regarded as a book that foresaw the 2008 financial crash, cementing Taleb’s reputation as a leading thinker on risk and uncertainty.

Taleb’s commentary comes in response to a New York Times article on the Trump administration’s bailout. The newspaper headlined: “U.S. Risks Taxpayer Money on a Big Argentine Bet,” highlighting widespread criticism of the plan.

The bailout of Javier Milei has faced sharp criticism across the U.S., from farmers to academic circles, who see it as a mechanism allowing funds connected to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to exit before the plan overseen by Toto Caputo collapses.

IMF Weighs In

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also weighed in this Friday, urging Argentina to build up reserves to face dollar shocks—a fresh rebuke to Luis “Toto” Caputo for not meeting that part of the agreement.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called on Argentina to make “additional efforts” to accelerate labor and tax reforms. Presenting the report at the conclusion of the IMF-World Bank Annual Assembly in Washington, Georgieva highlighted how election-related uncertainty has affected Argentina’s economic outlook.

“Annual core inflation continues to decline gradually, while economic activity has slowed recently, reflecting shocks and uncertainties linked to the elections,” the IMF report stated.

“Sustained efforts are needed to maintain the fiscal anchor, strengthen monetary and liquidity management frameworks, and increase reserve buffers to facilitate durable access to international capital markets,” the IMF added.

Mexican Peso Strengthens Against the Dollar, Capping a Week of Gains

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the final session of the week, supported by a market that continued to weigh the risks from U.S.–China trade tensions and the prospect of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The exchange rate closed at 18.3899 pesos per dollar. Compared to Thursday’s official Banxico close of 18.4318, the move represented a gain of 4.19 centavos, or 0.23%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 18.5528 and a low of 18.3648 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.04% to 98.41 points.

U.S. President Donald Trump said his proposed additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods is unsustainable, but blamed Beijing for the stalled trade negotiations, which began after the U.S. imposed tighter controls on rare earth exports.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Trump also confirmed in an interview with Fox Business on Friday that he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea—a meeting he had cast doubt on last week—and even expressed admiration for the Chinese leader.

Market Projections – Mexican Peso

Meanwhile, markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate cut at the October 29 meeting. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he is currently inclined to support a reduction at the upcoming policy decision.

Looking ahead to the overnight session, analysts expect a trading range of 18.34 to 18.47 pesos per dollar, citing lower risk aversion and the peso’s resilience as investors await greater clarity on tariffs over the weekend.

The dollar’s weakness over the week provided moderate support to the peso. Today’s close, compared to 18.5424 pesos per dollar last Friday, left the local currency with an accumulated gain of 15.25 centavos, or 0.82%.

Bitcoin Stabilizes? Selling Pressure Eases as Bulls Defend $107,000

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

With double-digit losses in altcoins and record ETF outflows, the crypto sector has seen its market cap plunge by $800 billion in just hours, while demand for safe-haven assets like gold surges.

The cryptocurrency market is facing a sharp sell-off this Friday, with Bitcoin dropping 2.1% and threatening to break below the $106,000 level, according to Binance. Ethereum fared no better, falling as much as 3.4% and nearing the $3,800 mark.

The crash extended across altcoins. Binance Coin suffered the biggest loss with a 6.7% decline, followed by Cardano (-5.3%), Dogecoin (-4.3%), Solana (-3.7%), and XRP (-3.7%), signaling an aggressive exit from lower-cap tokens.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Massive Liquidations

Selling pressure triggered a cascade of forced liquidations totaling nearly $1.2 billion in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass.

Notably, 79% of these liquidations were long positions—evidence that leveraged traders were caught on the wrong side of the move and unable to meet margin calls.

Traditional crypto investment vehicles were also hit. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their worst day of the month, posting $530.9 million in net outflows. Ethereum ETFs saw smaller, but still significant, outflows of $56.9 million.

As a result, total crypto market capitalization fell 6% to around $3.5 trillion—down $800 billion from the $4.3 trillion peak earlier this month.

Short Position Build-Up Signals Bearish Expectations

Bitcoin open interest surged 2.85% in the last 24 hours, surpassing $73 billion.

Analysts warn that when open interest rises as price drops, it often signals traders opening new short positions in anticipation of further declines.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell into deep fear territory at around 30 points—more than 20 points lower than last week.

Macro Uncertainty and Flight to Safety

The crypto sell-off comes amid escalating global trade tensions. China accused the U.S. of creating “unnecessary panic,” while concerns over regional U.S. banks persist.

In this environment, investors are rapidly shifting toward safe-haven assets. Gold surged to a historic $30 trillion market cap, undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative at a moment of peak vulnerability for crypto investors.

Looking Ahead

Despite the turmoil, on-chain data suggests long-term fundamentals remain strong. Exchange balances continue to decline, whale activity is rising, and on-chain volume indicates accumulation—potentially setting the stage for the next major rally.

“This phase is challenging, but also strategic,” analysts note. “It may present an opportunity to position ahead of a potential rebound—while staying mindful of volatility and global risk.”

Wall Street Edges Higher After Trump–Xi Meeting Confirmed

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Despite signs of exhaustion in major equity markets, recent comments from the U.S. president about trade negotiations with China provided some relief to investors.

Stocks remains volatile this week but slightly bullish.

U.S. stocks traded slightly higher on Friday after the previous session showed the first hints of fatigue in the months-long rally on Wall Street.

The S&P 500, which tracks the largest U.S. companies, gained 0.18%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.28%.

However, some of the most actively traded names—Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, and AMD—fell more than 2% in market trading.

[[SPX-graph]]

Key Drivers on Wall Street

President Donald Trump confirmed that a meeting with his Chinese counterpart is still on schedule, easing some tensions. Still, investors remain on edge due to mounting credit concerns at regional banks.

Yesterday, regional lender Zions plunged 13% after warning it would record $50 million in third-quarter losses tied to two loans from its California division. Western Alliance shares sank 11% after filing a fraud lawsuit against Cantor Group V, LLC.

Adding to the unease: the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 17th day, and growing skepticism toward the artificial intelligence sector amid fears of a potential bubble.

Global Markets in the Red

The global backdrop is largely negative. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx dropped 1.45%. Germany’s DAX fell 2.11%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.74%. Outside the eurozone, the UK’s FTSE 100 lost 1.42%.

Asian markets also tumbled. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.95%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.48%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.48%.

Mexican Peso Strengthens as the U.S. Dollar Weakens

Posted on October 16, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso inched higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by broad dollar weakness as investors increased their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

The exchange rate closed at 18.4318 pesos per dollar, improving from 18.4723 in the previous session, according to data from Banco de México (Banxico). This represents a gain of 4.05 centavos, or 0.22%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 18.4740 and a low of 18.3564 pesos. The ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.33% to 98.34 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Fed Officials Signal More Cuts

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he supports another rate cut at the central bank’s late-October meeting. Other key Fed officials have echoed this view amid signs of a weakening labor market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures are pricing in a 96.8% probability of another 25-basis-point cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.

Trade Tensions Still in Focus

Markets are also keeping a close eye on U.S.–China trade tensions. Fed Governor Stephen Miran warned that U.S. economic growth next year could depend on whether global trade risks materialize.

For now, the peso is benefiting from dollar softness and improved risk appetite as traders monitor the possibility of escalating global supply chain disruptions.

Technical Breakout

From a technical perspective, the peso’s appreciation marks a bearish break below the key 18.40 support level, reflecting broader dollar weakness and growing demand for risk assets.