Cryptocurrencies Curb ETF Enthusiasm, but Bitcoin Holds at Support Level

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Despite a market correction, Bitcoin continues to solidify its role as a store of value, driven by growing institutional interest and ongoing global economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin is gaining momentum as traditional markets surge.

Cryptocurrencies are trading lower, despite a temporary reprieve in U.S. tariff tensions and sustained institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. In this context, Bitcoin is down 0.6%, trading around $94,000 on Binance. Among the top 20 most-traded cryptocurrencies, losses reach up to 2.7%, led by Hedera, Toncoin, and Chainlink (down around 2.5%).

In the crypto-related equity space, shares of Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and several mining companies have pulled back after strong gains last week. This cooldown comes amid a tense economic backdrop, reflected in mixed signals from Wall Street. The good news is that there have been no new attacks from Trump in recent days—but the bad news is that the tariff situation remains unresolved.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

On the macroeconomic front, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index saw a sharp decline, marking its worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. Coupled with a significant drop in cargo shipments from China to the U.S. and concerns over rising prices for Chinese goods, trade tensions are fueling fears about the global economic outlook.

What the Market Is Watching

Despite this backdrop, investor attention remains focused on key economic indicators, including consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and this week’s upcoming jobs data. Expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve remain strong, with markets pricing in three to four cuts by year-end.

In the crypto market, appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to grow. According to Farside Investors, net inflows surpassed $3.2 billion last week alone, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) drawing in $970.9 million. The ETF market is progressing in a “two steps forward, one step back” pattern—exactly as many analysts predicted.

Bitcoin remains an appealing asset, especially for institutional investors, who continue to see its potential as a safe haven during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Notably, the state of Arizona is advancing legislation to establish Bitcoin reserves, potentially becoming the first U.S. state to officially adopt the asset—marking a milestone for institutional adoption.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is trading in a range between $90,000 and $98,000, with volatility that could trigger significant liquidations on both long and short positions. According to Bitget, a $1,000 drop could liquidate over $146 million in long positions, while a similar upside move could wipe out more than $279 million in shorts—suggesting that the market is bracing for a short-term correction.

Despite these fluctuations, overall sentiment remains optimistic. Whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and institutional investors are reaffirming their confidence, reinforcing a bullish outlook for the asset in the weeks ahead.

Mexican Peso Holds Steady Ahead of Key Data and U.S.-China News

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso closed virtually unchanged against the dollar in Tuesday’s session, as traders remained cautious ahead of key economic data releases and developments in U.S.-China trade relations.

The Mexican Peso is volatile amid the US-China Trade War.

The exchange rate ended the day at 19.5755 pesos per dollar, compared to Monday’s official close of 19.5784, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a marginal gain of 0.02% for the peso—less than one cent.

During the session, the dollar traded within a range of 19.6506 to 19.5461 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—rose 0.27% to 99.20.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Mexican Peso Outlook and GDP Figures

Investors are closely watching for the release of important economic indicators, particularly the GDP figures for both Mexico and the United States due on Wednesday. These results are expected to provide insight into the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Some analysts have forecast a contraction in Mexico’s GDP during the first quarter. However, stronger-than-expected data from the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) have cast doubt on just how resilient the Mexican economy may be.

The peso’s recent rally has stalled in the absence of fresh news on U.S.-China trade talks, despite signs that Washington is considering tariff reductions on auto parts and trucks.

Looking ahead to the overnight session, the exchange rate is expected to remain within a range of 19.52 to 19.66, as investor interest in the peso remains limited ahead of Wednesday’s first-quarter GDP reports.

World Bank: Commodity Prices Likely to Return to Pre-COVID Levels

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank forecasts that, when adjusted for inflation, global commodity prices will fall back to their 2015–2019 average over the next two years.

Oil and Agricultural primary products will likely fall.

This marks the end of a price surge fueled by the post-COVID recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Commodity Projections and Outlook

The Bank projects a 12% drop in global commodity prices in 2025, followed by a further 5% decline in 2026, as global economic growth weakens amid escalating trade tensions. In real terms, this would bring prices to their lowest levels in a decade.

[[USOIL-graph]]

While falling prices may help ease short-term inflation risks driven by new U.S. tariffs and rising global trade barriers, the trend could hurt commodity-exporting developing countries—Argentina among them.

“Higher commodity prices have been a windfall for many developing economies—two-thirds of which rely on commodity exports,” said World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill. “But we are now seeing the highest price volatility in more than 50 years. The combination of low prices and high volatility spells trouble.”

Gill urged these countries to liberalize trade where possible, restore fiscal discipline, and foster a more business-friendly environment to attract private investment.

Energy Prices and Inflation

Energy price spikes contributed more than two percentage points to global inflation in 2022. However, their decline in 2023 and 2024 helped moderate inflation, according to the report. The World Bank expects energy prices to fall by 17% in 2025—hitting a five-year low—followed by another 6% drop in 2026.

Brent crude is forecast to average $64 per barrel in 2025—$17 less than in 2024—and just $60 in 2026, as supply remains ample and demand weakens. This drop is partly driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China, the world’s largest auto market. On Tuesday, Brent crude fell over 2%, trading at $63.30 per barrel.

Arizona Approves First U.S. Bitcoin Reserve, Eyes 10% State Investment

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Arizona’s legislative approval marks a potential milestone in the institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the United States, opening the door for a state to formally integrate digital assets into its public treasury.

In a key move toward public adoption of Bitcoin, Arizona lawmakers have passed two bills authorizing the direct investment of public funds in digital assets. With this step, Arizona is on track to become the first U.S. state to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

[[btc/usd-graph]]

On Monday, the Arizona House of Representatives passed Senate Bills 1025 and 1373, which pave the way for allocating up to 10% of the state’s treasury and pension funds into Bitcoin and other digital assets.

The legislation—now awaiting Governor Katie Hobbs’ signature—would empower the State Treasurer to invest up to 10% of state-managed assets in digital currencies. It also establishes a Strategic Reserve Fund for Digital Assets to hold seized crypto and future allocations, with on-chain audit requirements and standardized risk controls.

Arizona’s initiative aligns with similar legislative efforts in Texas, Florida, and New Hampshire, where state governments are exploring Bitcoin-backed reserves to attract blockchain innovation and diversify public asset portfolios. If enacted, Arizona would become the first U.S. state to hold Bitcoin in its public treasury—a potential precedent for national-level integration of digital assets in public finance.

Bitcoin Market Impact

Following the vote, Bitcoin hovered around $95,000, having rebounded 25% from early-April lows. Renewed institutional interest—highlighted by Arizona’s move to validate Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset—is fueling market momentum.

While Governor Hobbs recently reduced the threat of a veto over separate disability funding disputes via a bipartisan deal on April 24, she has yet to comment on her stance regarding the crypto-related bills.

Her signature would trigger immediate implementation, while a veto would stall the legislation and freeze related budget allocations.

How Much Could Arizona Invest in Bitcoin?

Arizona manages substantial public assets. According to official data, the State Treasury oversaw more than $31.4 billion in assets in 2023. A 10% allocation, as permitted under SB 1025, would allow for up to $3.14 billion to be invested in digital assets, including Bitcoin and blockchain-based NFTs.

The legislation limits investment to highly liquid, secure instruments like Bitcoin and certain non-fungible tokens, while mandating compliance with standard fiduciary risk management protocols to safeguard public funds against volatility and custody risks.

A fully implemented $3.14 billion reserve could translate to roughly 31,000 BTC—instantly making Arizona the second-largest public institutional holder of Bitcoin in the U.S., surpassing corporations like Tesla and Marathon Digital.

Looking ahead, Arizona’s move could serve as a model for other states—and even foreign governments—seeking modern strategies to strengthen public reserves.

Cyberscams Totaling $710 Million Shake Stock Markets in Japan

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Online hackers are unleashing a wave of scams within Japan’s stock market. Since February, fraudulent trades have reached a staggering 100 billion yen (around $710 million), with no signs of slowing down.

Typically, the hacked accounts are used to purchase low-priced stocks, both domestically and internationally.

Eight of Japan’s leading brokerage firms, including Rakuten Securities Inc. and SBI Securities Co., have reported unauthorized transactions on their platforms. In response, Japan’s government has urged brokers to engage in “good faith” discussions with affected clients regarding compensation for their losses, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on April 22.

The Japan Securities Dealers Association, the country’s primary industry group for securities firms, is also pressing its members to update their systems and require mandatory multi-factor authentication. Association President Toshio Morita criticized the slow pace of compensation efforts but acknowledged that each firm must set its own policy regarding client reimbursements.

Fraudulent trading incidents surged to 736 cases in the first half of April, compared to just 33 in February, according to Japan’s Financial Services Agency, although the agency did not disclose the total losses suffered by victims. The growing threat poses a risk to the government’s broader strategy to encourage greater investment among citizens.

How the Scams Are Carried Out

The cybercriminals behind these scams likely employ tactics such as “man-in-the-middle” attacks and information-stealing malware to gain access to brokerage accounts.

In man-in-the-middle attacks, hackers exploit both fake and legitimate websites to steal cookies—small text files stored in browsers containing session data.

Typically, users are lured to a fake site through phishing emails or malicious ads. The fake site then redirects them to a real brokerage platform, intercepting their login credentials in the process.

In some sophisticated cases, hackers create elaborate interfaces, where one part of the browser displays the genuine site and another the fraudulent one, deceiving users more effectively.

On the other hand, information stealers are a type of malware specifically designed to extract sensitive information, such as user IDs and passwords. Hidden inside phishing emails, malicious ads, or fake websites, these programs can silently infiltrate a user’s device and steal personal data without the user’s knowledge.

At least 105,000 credential leaks have been recorded in Japan, according to a study by Macnica Security Research Center.

One particular vulnerability in Japan is the public’s preference for accessing brokerage platforms via web browsers rather than more secure mobile apps.

Mexican Peso Slips Slightly at the Start of a Data-Heavy Week

Posted on April 28, 2025April 28, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso weakened slightly against the dollar on Monday, as investors awaited further developments in the U.S.-China trade conflict and prepared for a wave of key economic data releases throughout the week.

The mexican peso fell but is still showing strength in 2025.

The exchange rate closed the session at 19.5784 pesos per dollar. Compared to Friday’s official close of 19.5223 pesos, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represented a loss of 5.61 centavos, or 0.29%.

During the session, the dollar traded between a high of 19.6088 pesos and a low of 19.4829 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from the Intercontinental Exchange — which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies — fell 0.53% to 98.94 points by the end of the day.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

This week is packed with significant economic releases, notably Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, amid speculation that the country may have entered a recession in the first quarter. The United States is also set to report its own GDP data.

Without new developments in the U.S.-China trade tensions, investors are focused on assessing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which threaten to slow down the world’s largest economy and fuel inflation.

Mexican Peso Outlook

Locally, market participants are seeking greater clarity after several firms suggested that the Mexican economy may have slipped into recession during the first quarter—a claim that President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly rejected at a recent press conference.

The peso started the week trading cautiously around the 19.50 support level, with low trading volume preventing any strong continuation of its recent appreciation. A breakout with higher volume could push the peso toward the 19.20 level, according to some analysts.

Others noted that the peso found some support from positive local data. Earlier in the day, it was reported that Mexico’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2.6% last month, while the country posted a trade surplus of $1.035 billion.

U.S. vs. China: The Second Phase of the Tariff War Begins

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The tariff war between the United States and China has entered its second phase, a stage that will test the resilience and strength of both sides.

China is taking a deliberate three-step approach: retaliation, economic stimulus, and negotiation, rather than hastily seeking deals. Chinese policymakers have long recognized that they cannot safeguard their core interests while making concessions merely to satisfy U.S. demands. Their retaliatory tariffs are designed to push both parties back to the negotiating table sooner rather than later.

Indeed, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce has confirmed that negotiations between the two sides have been ongoing through intermediaries. Meanwhile, China is expected to roll out additional stimulus measures to prevent a sharp slowdown in its GDP growth and financial markets. China is also working to diversify its exports beyond the U.S. market, focusing more on neighboring countries, as reflected by the recent “Central Conference on Work Related to Neighboring Countries” and President Xi Jinping’s scheduled visits to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations.

Impact on Chinese Exports to the U.S.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese exports to the U.S. totaled nearly $525 billion in 2024. Most Chinese exporting industries have only a limited to moderate ability to pass on higher tariff costs to their customers.

Chinese companies need to enhance the value of their products, explore new markets, optimize supply chains, and reduce dependence on the U.S. market. On the governmental side, support measures for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in affected sectors are critical.

What Immediate Support Has Been Seen?

Capital Markets: Central Huijin Investment Ltd. (an arm of China’s Ministry of Finance) and other state-owned enterprises made a coordinated effort to intervene in domestic stock markets to counteract the sell-off triggered by the trade war.
Chinese Currency: Managing the yuan’s exchange rate is delicate; while a combination of currency depreciation and interest rate cuts could help exports, it also risks provoking U.S. retaliation. Thus, the optimal strategy for China appears to be maintaining exchange rate stability within a controlled range.
Industrial Self-Help Initiatives: JD.com announced plans to purchase RMB 200 billion worth of export goods throughout the year to support exporters. Over a dozen other online platforms—including Alibaba’s Freshippo, Meituan, Douyin (ByteDance), Kuaishou, and VIP.com—as well as traditional retailers like Yonghui, CR Vanguard, and Lianhua, have launched similar initiatives.

Morgan Stanley: Weaker Dollar to Boost U.S. Stocks

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Morgan Stanley stated that a weakening dollar will support the earnings of U.S. companies, helping the American stock market outperform the rest of the world.

Morgan Stanley HQ has placed its bets for Q2 2025.

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley emphasized that betting on the U.S. remains a viable option. He cited the relatively stable earnings growth and the perception of U.S. companies as higher-quality businesses.

Wilson expects the S&P 500 to stay within a range of 5,000 to 5,500 points. For a more substantial rally, he noted, several conditions would need to be met: a tariff agreement with China, a clear rebound in earnings estimates, and the prospect of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

The Morgan Stanley strategist reiterated that the weaker dollar should bolster U.S. corporate earnings, strengthening the U.S. equity market relative to global peers.

Diverging Views

In contrast, Mislav Matejka of JPMorgan Chase & Co. favors international stocks over U.S. equities. In his latest note, he argued that the risk-reward profile is currently better for non-U.S. stocks, especially if former President Donald Trump continues to roll back tariff policies and recession risks remain elevated.

Matejka is not alone in his cautious stance on U.S. equities. Alain Bokobza, head of asset allocation at Societe Generale SA, warned that investors are likely to continue reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks and the dollar if Trump persists with his trade agenda.

Last week, strategists at Bank of America Corp. also advised selling U.S. stocks and taking advantage of dollar strength, arguing that the conditions needed to sustain gains are not currently in place.

Wall Street Closes Higher on Tech Rally, Posts Weekly Gains

Posted on April 25, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

Driven by a rally in major tech stocks, Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher on Friday, with traders encouraged by signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

Market operators enjoyed the rally in the pit.

All three major indexes posted gains to end the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks 30 of the largest U.S. companies, edged up 0.05% to 40,113.50. The broader S&P 500 rose 0.74% to 5,525.21, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.26% to 17,382.94.

[[SPX-graph]]

The S&P 500—and especially the Nasdaq—were lifted by strong performances from the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” the top market-cap tech companies linked to artificial intelligence. Nvidia led the charge, jumping 4.3%.

Although Beijing denied progress in trade talks—as claimed by U.S. President Donald Trump—it did announce exemptions on some U.S. imports from its steep 125% tariffs. Despite the contradictory signals, markets interpreted the news as a sign of cooling tensions.

Investors also kept a close eye on the ongoing Q1 earnings season, now in full swing. So far, 179 S&P 500 companies have reported, with 73% beating expectations, according to LSEG.

Among the highlights was Alphabet (+1.68%), Google’s parent company, which posted a 28% jump in Google Cloud revenue and reported that its investments in AI are beginning to pay off.

With these gains, all three indexes wrapped up a strong week:

Dow Jones: +2.48% this week (still down 5.71% YTD)
S&P 500: +4.59% (down 6.06% in 2025)
Nasdaq: +6.73% (still down 9.98% YTD)

Notable Movers

Strong earnings renewed optimism around AI, boosting the broader tech sector. NVIDIA (+4%) and Meta Platforms (+2.7%) both extended their bullish momentum.

On the downside, Intel sank 7% after issuing weak forward guidance, which overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings. The struggling chipmaker also raised concerns over macroeconomic headwinds stemming from the ongoing trade dispute.

T-Mobile US tumbled 11.5% after reporting fewer-than-expected wireless subscriber additions in Q1, as increased competition and aggressive promotions weighed on growth in a saturated U.S. market.

Colgate-Palmolive rose 1.4% despite slashing its full-year forecast for organic sales. The consumer goods giant cited pressure from U.S. tariffs but still delivered better-than-expected Q1 earnings.

Spotify shares rose 2.3% even after reports—via the Financial Times—that the streaming giant plans to raise subscription prices in several countries across Europe and Latin America.

Mexican Peso Gains Nearly 1% on the Week, Closes at 19.52 per Dollar

Posted on April 25, 2025 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso appreciated against the dollar at the end of the week, supported by optimism over potential progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite mixed signals from the media.

Latin American Economies have dragged global growth down.

The exchange rate closed the session at 19.5223 pesos per dollar. Compared to Thursday’s official close of 19.5809, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the peso gained 5.86 centavos, or 0.30%.

The dollar traded in a range between a high of 19.6898 and a low of 19.5125 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.31% to 99.60 points at the close.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Despite a backdrop of uncertainty, the peso managed to end the week on a positive note. Compared to last Friday’s reference rate of 19.7124 pesos from LSEG (no Banxico reference due to a holiday), the currency posted a gain of 19.01 centavos, or 0.96%.

Shifting Headlines

China announced some tariff exemptions on U.S. imports, boosting hopes that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies might end in a market-friendly resolution.

In an interview with Time magazine published Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with China were ongoing and claimed President Xi Jinping had called him on Tuesday. However, Beijing has disputed Trump’s version of events.

Trump also said he would consider it a “total victory” if the U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50% on foreign imports within a year. These shifting headlines and lack of concrete announcements have kept the exchange rate within a tight range.

Local Economic Boost

Domestically, the peso found support in a better-than-expected economic activity report for February, defying analysts’ expectations that Mexico might have entered a technical recession in the first quarter.

Mexico’s Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) rose 1% in February, according to the INEGI. Year-over-year, however, it was down 0.7%. These figures suggest the country’s economic performance could be less weak than previously anticipated.