Author: Maham Arslan

XRP ETF odds slipping. On Polymarket, odds dropped from 98.2% to 75% in two weeks before recovering to 78%. This is the first time since April that XRP ETF odds have been below 80% and is raising new questions about the regulatory situation.

The root cause is ongoing legal uncertainty. Ripple dropped their appeal in the high profile SEC case but the case isn’t closed. Former SEC attorney Marc Fagel said unless the SEC formally withdraws their appeal through a vote the case is still open. This uncertainty is weighing on institutional confidence in the short term.

• XRP ETF odds dropped 23 points in two weeks
• Ripple’s legal battle with SEC is still open
• Bloomberg analysts still estimate 95% chance of approval

Despite the drop some analysts see this as a temporary reaction to procedural delays rather than a change in fundamentals. A favorable outcome could quickly restore market optimism.

Solana up to 92% on ETF Approval Bets

While XRP is down, Solana is up. Solana ETF approval odds are now at 92% on Polymarket, the highest of all crypto assets. Legal clarity, strong network metrics and institutional backing is helping SOL pull ahead of the competition in the ETF race.

Nine asset managers have filed ETF proposals, Invesco’s proposed ticker “QSOL” is the focal point for institutional traders watching Solana’s ecosystem mature.

What’s driving Solana’s move:

• No active lawsuits or regulatory threats
• Faster, cheaper transactions on a high throughput blockchain
• Staking enabled ETFs offer 8% annualized yield

Plus an upcoming Solana hard fork focused on efficiency improvements is another tailwind for the ETF.

XRP Technical Setup eyes $2.23 Breakout

XRP’s chart is looking bullish despite regulatory headwinds. Currently at $2.19 the token is pressing against the $2.20 resistance line, forming an ascending triangle on the hourly chart. This pattern usually precedes breakouts.Golden cross at $2.14 where 50-EMA crosses above 200-EMA. Bullish engulfing candle supported by trendline from $2.03 low means buyers are in control.

Trade setup:

• Buy on breakout: $2.205
• Target 1: $2.232
• Target 2: $2.277
• Stop-loss: Below $2.166

The market will be watching for a volume backed move above $2.20 to confirm the breakout. Otherwise a retest of $2.13 if momentum stalls.

In Summary:

• XRP ETF sentiment is weak at 75% odds due to ongoing legal issues.
• Solana is ahead at 92% approval and strong institutional backing.
• XRP technicals looking bullish if $2.20 breaks, targeting $2.27 short term.

Ripple and the SEC may be nearing a settlement in their long-running XRP lawsuit. Legal expert Fred Rispoli thinks both sides will drop their appeals and agree to a $50 million fine and leave Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling intact—XRP is not a security.

This would end over 4 years of litigation that has shaped the regulatory conversation around digital assets in the US.

Judge Torres Denies Joint Request

On Friday, Judge Torres denied the joint motion from Ripple and the SEC to dissolve the permanent injunction and reduce Ripple’s fine. The court’s decision sends the case back to the appellate level.

• Attorney James Filan said the court denied both parts of the motion.
• Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said, “The ball is back in our court.”
• XRP is still not a security.

Now Ripple has to decide whether to continue to appeal or dismiss it entirely—a move that would align with Rispoli’s prediction of a quiet settlement.

Legal Analyst Forecasts Quiet Finish

Fred Rispoli, who is following the case, thinks a mutual withdrawal of appeals is the most likely outcome. He expects a $50 million settlement that avoids further litigation and gives Ripple regulatory clarity.

He also thinks the SEC may privately tell Ripple that its business operations will not be further enforced as long as it follows the framework already established.

• Courts don’t enforce injunctions unless one side files a violation.
• The SEC won’t monitor Ripple after settlement.
• The current judgment will remain valid without further litigation.

Rispoli said the SEC’s approach during the lawsuit, especially under the previous administration, may have frustrated the court—maybe even influenced Judge Torres’ tone.

Political Backdrop and Timeline

The length of the XRP lawsuit, combined with the shift in political and regulatory attitudes, may have played a role in the court’s decision. Rispoli said Judge Torres’ tone may reflect the court’s frustration with both sides over time.

He also pointed to past mistakes by the SEC, including the Debt Box case where its attorneys were sanctioned, as part of the broader context behind the changing regulatory landscape.

XRP Price Prediction: Technical Outlook

XRP/USD is showing signs of weakness after failing to sustain above $2.15 and breaking below the 50-EMA near $2.14. The pair is now hovering around the $2.09 level, slightly above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $2.07. A sustained move below this level could expose the 0.618 Fib at $2.03, followed by stronger support near $1.97.

The bearish crossover of the 50-EMA and 200-EMA continues to weigh on sentiment, while the downward trendline from the $2.23 high caps upside potential. A rebound needs to clear $2.15 and break above the 200-EMA at $2.19 to revive bullish momentum. Until then, XRP remains vulnerable to further downside within this corrective phase.

Canada’s 3iQ has sparked hope for XRP with the launch of North America’s first spot XRP ETF—XRPQ—on the Toronto Stock Exchange. In just three trading days, the fund has attracted C$32 million in assets, clearly showing demand from institutions and retail investors alike.

This early momentum not only strengthens XRP’s fundamentals but also boosts sentiment around future U.S. approvals. According to 3iQ CEO Pascal St-Jean, the XRP ETF’s performance mirrors that of their Solana ETF, showing strong appetite for regulated digital asset exposure.

ETF Highlights:

• XRPQ launched on TSX with C$32M AUM in 3 days
• Largest XRP ETF in Canada
• Institutional demand

If this is mirrored in the U.S., this could be big, so bullish XRP price prediction in the months to come.

Legal Ruling May Unleash U.S. ETF Demand

A big catalyst for any long term XRP price prediction is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. A revised joint settlement motion was filed on June 12 and is being reviewed by Judge Analisa Torres. It proposes:

• Lifting XRP’s institutional sale injunction
• Reducing Ripple’s penalty to $50M
• Mutual withdrawal of appeals

If approved XRP will be a non-security in U.S. secondary markets and ETFs can list. But legal setbacks could cause volatility. In May a similar proposal was denied due to procedural issues.

Legal Sentiment:

• Polymarket ETF odds dropped to 74% from 98.2%
• Waiting on Judge Torres’ ruling in the coming weeks
• U.S. ETF approval could change XRP’s global liquidity profile

Until then XRP is sensitive to every court update.

 [[XRP/USD-graph]]

XRP Price Prediction: Breakout or Bull Trap?

 [[XRP/USD]] went up 9% to $2.21 before dropping to $2.18 as of writing. Despite strong volume ($5.1B in 24 hours) it was rejected at the descending trendline near the 200-EMA ($2.156).

Two long upper wicks show bearish pressure but price is still above the 50-EMA ($2.094) which is bullish.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $2.21 (trendline), $2.2565, $2.3013* Support: $2.15, $2.09, $2.03
• Trade:
  • Bullish entry above $2.21
  • Targets $2.25-$2.30
  • Conservative stop-loss $2.1320

For now it’s a breakout above $2.21. A bullish engulfing candle with volume would be the green light, failure to hold $2.15 would be a short term pullback.

Speculation that the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit could go into 2026 has sparked debate in the XRP community. But top legal minds close to the case say otherwise. XRP legal expert Bill Morgan shot down the timeline rumor, saying it’s unlikely.

Morgan pointed to Judge Analisa Torres’ track record and the recent joint motion for an “indicative ruling” as signs the case could be over sooner. “Unless the judge denies the motion—which I find improbable—the case won’t be delayed,” Morgan wrote on X.

The case started in December 2020 and centers around the SEC’s claim that Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security. Judge Torres’ 2023 ruling determined XRP was not a security in programmatic sales, giving Ripple partial win. The latest joint filings suggest both sides may be leaning towards closure not escalation.

Expert Opinion: Why 2026 Is Unlikely

Morgan expects the court to rule based on the current judgment rather than prolonged appeals. His reasoning:

• Judge Torres’ summary judgment favors Ripple on key sales classifications.
• Prolonged litigation would be costly for both sides with little added value.
• The joint motion is a rare instance of SEC-Ripple alignment.

If the court grants the motion, Morgan estimates the case could be over in weeks. While James Farrell has floated 2026-2027 scenarios if the motion fails, most legal insiders see that as a long shot.

 [[XRP/USD-graph]]

XRP Technical Setup: Trendline Resistance Holds Price

While the legal outlook is looking up, XRP’s chart tells a different story. Price is stuck below $2.03, trapped under a descending trendline that started last week. The rejection at the 50-period EMA ($2.07) confirms selling pressure.

Candlestick patterns show a bearish harami—a red candle inside a previous green one—a sign of fading momentum. The 200 EMA is at $2.16, reinforcing the broader bearish view.

Short-term levels:

• Resistance: $2.03, $2.08, $2.15
• Support: $1.95, $1.91, $1.87If XRP goes below $1.958, it could go down to $1.91 and $1.87. For bulls to take control, price needs to break and hold above $2.03 with volume and then $2.08 or higher.

Bottom Line: Resolution Near, But Market Not Convinced

Despite the growing alignment and expert opinion that the case could be over in weeks, XRP’s price is still cautious. The lower-highs and trendline rejection show traders aren’t fully pricing in a win yet. That could change quickly—if Judge Torres rules in Ripple’s favor on the joint motion.

For now, eyes are on $1.95 support and $2.03 breakout. Until then, sentiment is defensive even as the legal path is clear.

Ripple has quietly escalated its stablecoin ambitions with another 13 million RLUSD minted, pushing the market cap of its dollar-backed asset to approximately $428.7 million. The move, flagged by the Ripple Stablecoin Tracker, brings RLUSD within striking distance of the symbolic $500 million threshold.

Verified on-chain via Etherscan, the mint is Ripple’s second in less than a week, following a 10 million RLUSD issuance just days earlier. The destination wallet is believed to be tied to Ripple’s liquidity operations, suggesting these tokens are headed for deployment in centralized exchanges or DeFi protocols.

Why it matters: RLUSD is Ripple’s answer to USDT and USDC, however, with a focus on regulatory alignment and cross-chain utility. The project’s positioning is strategic, aligning with Ripple’s broader push into payments, liquidity solutions, and DeFi infrastructure.

Key On-Chain Highlights:

• RLUSD market cap: $428.7M
• Most recent mint: 13M RLUSD
• Total minted in 3 days: 23M RLUSD
• Destination: CEX/DeFi-linked wallet
• Distribution: No single wallet dominance

Institutional Demand Grows for Regulated Stablecoins

Crossing the half-billion mark isn’t just symbolic—it could mark the entry point for institutional adoption. Analysts suggest that a $500M market cap adds credibility for listing RLUSD on major exchanges and integrating it into payment rails, particularly as regulatory clarity improves.

The recent passage of the GENIUS Act, aimed at providing a framework for U.S. stablecoin issuers, may also be fueling Ripple’s aggressive mints. Experts see the act as a green light for compliant issuers like Ripple to scale operations, with RLUSD being a prime candidate.

As demand broadens, Ripple is expected to push RLUSD beyond Ethereum through multi-chain deployments and international integrations, solidifying its role in global finance.

 [[XRP/USD-graph]]

XRP Faces Resistance While RLUSD Gains Traction

While RLUSD gains momentum, [[XRP/USD]] is still fighting to regain bullish footing. Currently trading at $2.14, XRP remains below its 50-EMA ($2.14408) and 200-EMA ($2.17333), with price action capped by a descending trendline.

Candlestick patterns such as spinning tops near resistance highlight indecision. A breakout above $2.18 would shift sentiment, but until then, bearish control persists.

Technical Trade Setup:

• Short Entry: $2.14–$2.145
• Stop-Loss: Above $2.18
• Targets: $2.10794, $2.08507

Traders should watch for MACD confirmation or rejection candles. Until XRP reclaims $2.18, price action may remain subdued—even as RLUSD reshapes Ripple’s long-term outlook.