Author: Timothy St. John

Timothy St John is a seasoned financial analyst and writer, catering to the dynamic landscapes of the US and European markets. Boasting over a decade of extensive freelance writing experience, he has made significant contributions to reputable platforms such as Yahoo!Finance, business.com: Expert Business Advice, Tips, and Resources - Business.com, and numerous others. Timothy's expertise lies in in-depth research and comprehensive coverage of stock and cryptocurrency movements, coupled with a keen understanding of the economic factors influencing currency dynamics. Timothy majored in English at East Tennessee State University, and you can find him on LinkedIn.

Trump Enraged over United States GDP Figures

Posted on February 20, 2026 by Timothy St. John

For 2025, the United States’ gross domestic product rose by 1.4%, and President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social that it would have been higher if not for Democrats causing a government shutdown.

Consumers spent less in the last quarter than usual as prices rose and government shutdowns caused disruption.

The Dow Jones expected a GDP of 2.5% for the United States, but slowing consumer spending resulted in a much lower figure and growth of just 1.4%. Trump blames it on the extended government shutdown- the longest in United States history.

He blasted the Democrats and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over on social media, attributing the lower than expected GDP to their actions. Trump has been hounding the Fed and Powell in particular to issue more interest rate cuts since he took back the office of the presidency.

Economic Growth Data Shows Slowed Consumer Spending

This week saw the release of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product data showing an expanding economy. The numbers were well below what Wall Street predicted they would be, however, disappointing many investors. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields moved slightly higher to 4.09% and the U.S Dollar ticked upward 0.01%.

One of the key reasons why the GDP numbers fell short of expectations was sluggish consumer spending. U.S. residents spent less during the extensive government shutdown since the event meant that many government employees were not receiving pay checks. This happened during an important spending period just ahead of the winter holidays.

Investments faltered as well, and the stock market and crypto markets both saw sharp declines during the government shutdown and throughout November and December last year. Inflation data demonstrated that consumers are still affected by high prices, and that is partly why Walmart (WMT) performed so well in its most recent quarter as consumers sought out low cost options for essentials.

Government spending fell off sharply in the last quarter, and at the same time consumer spending became slower. The Commerce Department says that the shutdown could have cost the GDP total about 1 point. President Trump was far quicker to place the blame and said that the shutdown cost the United States GDP “at least two points.” He also blamed the Fed for high interest rates, pointing out Powell specifically for the Fed’s policies.

Natural Gas Hovers Near 4-Month Low

Posted on February 20, 2026 by Timothy St. John

On Friday, gas futures stayed close to the $3 level, which is the lowest point for U.S. gas futures in four months despite strong export movement and stabilizing reserve levels.

The natural gas market expects lower prices soon.

Gas reserves are no longer extremely high like they were throughout much of 2025. The massive cold front that swept throughout the United States in January depleted much of the excess supply and caused the gas prices to spike with record demand for heating. This week, the LNG rate has slowed significantly and has been hanging close to $3.

On Friday, U.S. gas futures ticked upward slightly after Thursday’s decline, increasing by 0.49% and hitting a price of $3.01 per MMBtu. Withdrawals from last week of 144 bcf was below the previous year’s 183 bcf. The price of natural gas is expected to remain close to the $3 level for now.

Gas Futures Remain Trapped

LNG rates are being pulled right now between exceptional export flows and warmer than normal temperatures. Weather forecasts call for mild temperatures that should last at least through the start of March. They could remain warmer after that, of course, but that is as far as solid forecasts can be given. Investors should expect the price of gas to drop even further by next week when new forecasts hit.

Output is on the rise throughout the U.S. and production levels are expected to increase through the spring, especially as new plants and new production lines open up. Stocks of natural gas are about 6% below normal levels, but that deficit should not last for long. By March, analysts say, the supply levels will be normal again.

Heating demand will likely stay low thanks to warmer temperatures, and those exports that are helping keep the price elevated may slow down as well. With new plants opening up around the world and warmer temperatures spreading to other countries outside the U.S., demand for exported LNG will likely decline in the coming months.

Reports from the EIA on storage levels have created a bearish outlook for the market. Investors expect the price to drop significantly through March after falling sharply already from January’s highs. The natural gas market is headed toward incredible lows in the coming months, as all indicators point to excessive supply and diminishing demand.

Recovery from the $3 level seems unlikely when Venezuela market is factored in. Now that the Venezuelan natural gas market is opening up again, supplies for the Western Hemisphere will be abundant at a time when demand is incredibly low.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Says Recovery Is False Hope

Posted on February 20, 2026 by Timothy St. John

On Friday, Bitcoin climbed 1.17% to $67,388 (BTC/USD) and may have given investors some hope of a recovery, but the coin is still mostly flat for the week.

Bitcoin is up just a little today but investors should not expect a surge.

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved very little this week, gaining just 0.26% and squashing hopes that it would pick up some bullish momentum. The cryptocurrency market is still mostly trending downward with no end in sight to the bearish behavior.

[[BTC/USD]]

Continuing its tight range trading, Bitcoin remains in a limited pattern that will make it hard for it to break free and score impressive gains. The current movement trend indicates diminishing institutional demand as ETF outflows increase.

Bitcoin Expected to Remain Bearish

There was hope from the market that the latest Federal Reserve meeting would help move Bitcoin along, but that has not happened. The Fed is divided on whether to issue rate cuts, and they decided not to issue any for now. However, members of the Federal Reserve said that if inflation continues to decline closer to the 2% mark, then they would be very likely to enact more cuts to the interest rate.

Bitcoin did not react strongly to the news, with a dip on Thursday and then a slight increase on Friday, putting the coin right back where it started the week off. There is still no sign of a Bitcoin recovery, and the coin is about 47% off its all-time high from October 2025.

Outflows remain strong for spot ETFs, with $403 million reported through Thursday. The trend is likely to continue today as well, and if it does, that would mark five straight weeks of institutional outflows for the coin. Bitcoin is expected to remain in its current tight range for now, although some analysts and market insiders are very hopeful about where it will go later in the year.

Eric Trump Says Bitcoin Volatility Is a Positive

President Donald Trump’s son, Eric Trump, defended Bitcoin’s volatility on Thursday in a CNBC interview. He said that with an asset like Bitcoin there is tremendous upside and volatility is expected. In the interview, he championed the coin and remarked that many major financial institutions are adopting it, including Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, and JPMorgan Chase.

He called Bitcoin the “asset class of its generation,” and he did not seem to share the concern that many analysts have over Bitcoin’s current trajectory and the trajectory of the wider crypto market. The market has been bearish for months, and even a short surge in January was quickly countered by financial headwinds that sent the market tumbling downward once more.

Stocks Dip before Nvidia Releases Quarterly Earnings; AI Stocks under Pressure

Posted on February 20, 2026 by Timothy St. John

Nvidia (NVDA) will be releasing their quarterly earnings report on February 25th, and it is sure to impact the stock market heavily. U.S stocks closed low on Thursday ahead of that release.

Government officials at the Fed worry that AI will disrupt the jobs market.

AI stocks are still under severe scrutiny, and investors and analysts alike will be looking at Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report to chart the future of the AI market. Stocks ticked down on Thursday, with the Dow Jones falling 0.54% and the Nasdaq dropping 0.31%. The S&P 500 rounded out the top three indices with a loss of 0.28%.

Financial and tech techs fell throughout the day on Thursday, partly due to continued concern over AI disruption and partly due to rising tensions between the United States and Iran. These stocks could fall further after Nvidia’s quarterly report since the company carries a lot of weight on the stock market.

Nvidia’s Earnings Predictions

Nvidia’s stock price has only climbed 0.8% this year in a sluggish start for not just them but for the wider AI market. During this month’s earnings season, multiple tech stocks in the AI field have reported excellent revenue but large capex costs, and their stocks have suffered as a result.

Nvidia is not just one of the Magnificent Seven stocks that help shift market momentum, but they are also the stock with the highest market cap. Their movements carry weight with the stock indices, affecting 7.8% of the S&P 500 alone.

For the fourth quarter, Nvidia is anticipating an earnings per share increase of 71% and revenue of around $66 billion. However, Wall Street estimates for the company’s earnings report are wide ranging, and Nvidia could surprise shareholders with the numbers they announce next week.

Fed Governor Warns of AI Disrupting Workplaces

AI impact on jobs was one of the areas of concern this week for the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr said that artificial intelligence could seriously disrupt the jobs market, replacing human employees with software. He warned policymakers to be cautious about how they handle the issue so that they do not make rash decisions that could negatively affect jobs in the future.

The disruption that AI could cause has already impacted stock markets, leading to a pullback on tech and financial stocks in recent weeks as industry insiders talk up the potential dangers of widespread AI usage. Tech stocks are also falling due to high capital expenditure costs that appear to be growing in 2026 rather than shrinking.

Walmart Announces Strong Q4 Revenue Growth

Posted on February 19, 2026 by Timothy St. John

Posting excellent fourth quarter results, Walmart (WMT) sets the tone for the economic environment with 5.6% revenue growth on sales of $190.7 billion.

Q4 earnings for Walmart show excellent revenue growth.

Analysts have been watching Walmart closely to see how it would fare in its first quarterly report since joining the trillion dollar market cap club earlier this month. They impressed by performing well during a potentially tumultuous time of changing leadership as they switched out their Executive Council and Chief Growth Officer.

The online side of the company saw strong growth for the most recent quarter, as did their physical stores. In-store sales increased by 4.6% for the quarter, and digital sales jumped 24%. The company fell below Wall Street estimates, however, with their 2027 projections.

Walmart Closes out Earnings Season in a Big Way

The current earnings season is almost over, and investors have seen reports from Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and now Walmart. These high profile companies are often barometers for how the economy is doing, and if they can perform well during the quarter, they tell the public that the economy is doing well too.

Walmart’s stock market performance can be slightly different from other major companies when it comes to identifying economic health and growth. This is a company that often performs well when the economy is under pressure because many consumers turn to Walmart for lower prices and cost-savings options. However, the most recent inflation data shows great promise for the overall health of the U.S. economy, reading at 2.4% and noticeable improvement over the previous month’s 2.7%.

The company issued guidance for the upcoming year, and this is where they disappointed. The company’s consolidated net sales for 2027 should be around 3.5% to 4.5% higher than the previous year. That is below the Wall Street prediction of 5% growth, and the underwhelming projection caused Walmart stock to slip late in the day on Thursday.

Walmart’s stock has been mostly falling for the past week as shareholders lost confidence in their ability to fire on all fronts for the Q4 earnings report. Even though they beat expectations when it came to revenue, they failed to hit the mark on future guidance. The company’s record holiday sales should have saved them from a stock decline, and we may still see the stock recover in the coming days as more of their numbers are processed by the market.

Natural Gas Remains Close to $3 as Demand Slips

Posted on February 19, 2026 by Timothy St. John

The price of natural gas futures in the United States slipped this week, hovering close to $3 as demand for heating fall further and temperatures warm.

The cost of gas is dropping as warm weather takes over.

The LNG rate is expected to remain low since warm weather forecasts are dominating. Natural gas ticked up 1.64% on Thursday but is still around $3.06 per million British Thermal Units. Crude oil likewise climbed 1.41%, but these increases are not likely to be part of a larger bear trend for the market.

Negative sentiment is slipping slightly as Thursday progresses, and the price of gas futures may find a foothold a little above the $3 mark for now. No weather changes or supply level drops can explain the uptick, and we suspect it is the result of minor market correction.

Warm Weather to Persist

Investors should anticipate low prices for the coming weeks since forecasters are calling for warm weather through the beginning of March now. Output is slightly higher across the United States, with the lower 48 states reporting output of 108.5 bcfd for February. That is a slight increase from January’s 106.3 bcfd output.

Now, output is near record highs and production has returned to normal levels since the winter snow and ice have cleared across much of the United States. Export plant outflows are also higher, with major United States plants reporting 18.6 bcfd for February so far. That puts the export numbers on a path to beat out December’s numbers.

Natural gas prices are considered stable for the U.S. market for now, and there is little indication that they will continue to drop or to drop sharply. Instead, we expect prices to remain relatively close to $3, and there is a high probability that the price will stay above that level for the week.

As we move into the last week of February, though, the price of gas futures should shift and move downward in anticipation of decreasing demand, increased injections into the supply, and warmer temperatures. The weather in March should be warmer than its was in February, leading to less demand for heating and less demand for exports to other countries that will start to see warmer weather as well.

Brent oil is up 1.36% for the day, and heating oil has climbed 1.18%. We believe these are mostly market corrections and not indicators of a rising bull market trend.

BTC Price Prediction after Falling to $66K; Bitcoin in Tight Trading Range

Posted on February 19, 2026 by Timothy St. John

Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading within a tight range this week after dropping to $66,497 (BTC/USD) but is also sparking “Extreme Fear” for investor sentiment.

Bitcoin is trapped in a limited range of trading.

Investors are fearful about where Bitcoin is headed and about how long it will stay bearish. The coin fell 1.51% on Wednesday and may decline further on Thursday as market sentiment is extremely low. The coin has been trading between $65.7K and $71.7K for weeks now.

[[BTC/USD]]

Where BTC’s rate will go from here is hard to guess, but it looks like it could drop further. Bitcoin’s movement seemingly ignored the recent jobs data and inflation news that helped the stock market climb higher. This tells us that the coin is trapped in a cycle driven by internal investor sentiment toward the market, which is overwhelmingly negative and fearful.

Bitcoin Expected to Slip Further

The spot ETFs for the Bitcoin market in the United States declined on Wednesday, falling further with $133 million recorded for net outflows. That arm of the Bitcoin market is hemorrhaging investors, and this is part of why the Bitcoin market sentiment is in the range of Extreme Fear. It is possible that the outflows will continue and mark the fifth week in a row that ETFs have declined.

In the past, Bitcoin would have received help from the wider cryptocurrency market to pull it out of a rut, but not this time. Across the board, the crypto market is bearish, with losses recorded for Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), BNB (BNB), and many others. Those losses are not just recorded for Wednesday but over the last week as well, indicating a trend that is severe and certainly no fluke that the market expects to quickly reverse.

A few crypto coins have recorded gains over the past week, but these are not the majority, and Bitcoin is struggling on its own to climb out of the current downtrend. With months of losses and extensive ETF outflows, Bitcoin is in a tough situation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that investors are worried about where Bitcoin is headed. When that index is in the position of Extreme Fear, the coin is likely to have trouble making back gains anytime soon.

Investors may want to keep their eyes on ETF movements, as the strength of inflows and outflows often indicate where the coin is headed and how stable it is. For now, Bitcoin’s stability is low and the bears have control.

Federal Reserve Divided on Rate Cuts as Nvidia Headlines Stock Market Gains

Posted on February 19, 2026 by Timothy St. John

U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the way as it gained 1.63%, overcoming recent trends for this and other technology stocks.

The Federal Reserve decided not to issue new rate cuts this week.

Wednesday ended on a positive note for the stock markets, and tech stocks appear to be making a comeback after weeks of oppressively bearish movement. Nvidia helped push stocks higher, as investors watched with interest as the stock made impressive gains this week.

The Nasdaq was able to increase by 0.8%, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.3%, and the S&P 500 added 0.6%. Now, the S&P 500 is very close to setting a new record high after climbing 12% over the last 12 months.

Tech Stocks Enjoy Minor Rally

It is not accurate to say that investors are no longer worried about AI disruption and profitability for tech companies, but technology stocks have done very well this week. Nvidia has been one of the better performing tech stocks so far, moving from $181 to $187 per share in a shortened week.

The company has seen its stock jump after announcing a partnership with Meta Platforms (META). The two companies will work together as Nvidia provides millions of AI components necessary for Meta’s AI expansion. It should be noted that Meta Platforms is one of the AI-related companies that performed exceptionally well this earnings season and saw its stock jump after the quarterly earnings report. Meta plans to spend $136 billion on AI in 2026, soundly hushing talk that the market may be dead or stagnant soon.

Several tech companies released their earnings reports this week, including Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), which gained 7.6% after they shared profits and revenue numbers that exceeded Wall Street predictions. Analog Devices (ADI) also gained 2.6% this week when they announced their earnings for the most recent quarter. The chip company beat expectations as they enjoyed record customer orders for the quarter.

The FOMC meeting on Wednesday was not decisive. The members of the Federal Reserve were split on whether to issue a rate cut or not. They mentioned the surprising strength of the economy but also said that a new interest rate cut would not be coming just yet. The future interest rate decisions could lead to a rate hike according to Fed officials. They reiterated that they are waiting for inflation to drop in order to issue more rate cuts with a clear conscience. The target for the Fed is 2%, and inflation is currently sitting at 2.4%- a drop from the previous month.

Tesla Stock Reacts to Ruling on Use of “Autopilot”

Posted on February 18, 2026 by Timothy St. John

Tesla (TSLA) had to drop the word “autopilot” from its descriptions for its vehicles in marketing materials after a California ruling, and their stock is bullish today along with the wider market.

Tesla may see its stock reacts soon as it has to change its advertising materials.

Tesla would have faced a 30-day suspension of manufacturer and dealer licenses in California if they had not complied with a ruling calling for them to take the word “autopilot” off of their marketing materials. The company could have taken a stock hit as a result, but they moved swiftly and are enjoying a 1.16% bump for Wednesday.

In December, the California Department of Motor Vehicles addressed concerns from consumers about the use of the term “Autopilot” in marketing materials from electric car makers like Tesla. Now, Tesla has to avoid using that term as well as “Full Self-Driving,” as they indicate that driver supervision is necessary.

Tax Credit End Hurts Tesla Sales

This threat of suspension comes at an important time for Tesla as they are trying to recover from the end of the government EV tax credit program. That incentive program provided buyers with money back from the government for purchasing a new electric vehicle, and the program was responsible for helping EV sales for years.

The key tax credit initiative ended on October 2, 2025, and the company has seen declining EV sales since then. They had to adjust their outlook for 2026 EV sales as a result, and the wider electric vehicle market is seeing lower sales globally as well.

Tesla stock is valued at $414 per share at the time of writing, and that puts it only slightly above where it was three months ago at $395. In mid-December, the Tesla stock price peaked at $489, and it has mostly declined since then.

It appears that Tesla has dodged the latest hurdle well and avoided license suspension. Now, they have to rethink how they market their vehicles and avoid running afoul of the DMV. The term “Full Self-Driving” can only be used if their vehicles can respond to traffic signals and change lanes within the city. “Autopilot” is allowed when vehicles can fully brake, accelerate, and stay properly within lanes on highways. As long as the vehicles need supervision to accomplish these tasks safely, Tesla and its competitors cannot use the terms.

Stocks Tick up ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting

Posted on February 18, 2026 by Timothy St. John

Stock market indices rose on Tuesday by the time trading closed off, and they jumped on Wednesday morning as the market opened and prepared for the latest FOMC meeting.

Palantir is one of the leading stocks for Wednesday as AI stocks look promising.

The Federal Reserve will be holding its January meeting on Wednesday, and the market is bullish ahead of that meeting. The Nasdaq climbed 1.16% while the Dow gained 0.55%. The S&P 500 increased by 0.77% as well, rounding out the top three stock indices for the U.S. market.

Stock futures remained positive at the time of writing and are pointing toward positive consumer sentiment over the FOMC meeting and the state of the economy. Recent inflation data was promising and came in better than expected for the jobs market and the consumer price index.

Tech Companies Catch a Break

After days of bearish movement for many technology stocks, there is positive movement on the stock indices for a number of them. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is out in front with a 5.13% increase after a strong Q4 earnings report. Microsoft (MSFT) has caught a break after several rough weeks, with a 0.72% increase for Wednesday.

Nvidia (NVDA) is another strong performer today, with 2.42% in gains after signing a deal with Meta Platforms to provide them with millions of AI chips. The company is enjoying excellent stock movement just a week out from its quarterly earnings report that will be key to determining where investor sentiment lies with AI companies.

Technology companies are still under severe scrutiny as they need to prove to shareholders that they can be profitable despite major investments into AI technology. Nvidia’s earnings next week will likely be crucial, but the easing off that is taking place this week is promising for the tech sector. Apple (AAPL) gained 0.66% on Wednesday, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell 1.41%, indicating that the entire AI sector is not bullish just yet.

Later this week, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index will release, indicating where inflation might be headed. That could work together with the FOMC meeting outcome to give the market a lot of momentum heading into next week.