Trump Announces Tariff Cuts for India for Ending Russian Oil Purchases

Posted on February 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

However, the details of the agreement remain unclear. The announcement caught markets by surprise, as progress in the negotiations had been kept strictly confidential.

India is strengthening its alliance with the west.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday morning that the United States will cut tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for India halting its purchases of Russian oil and instead sourcing crude from the United States and Venezuela. “This will help bring an end to the war in Ukraine,” Trump said.

So far, Trump’s social media post has not been followed by any official details from either the White House or the Indian government. Under the agreement as outlined by Trump, the U.S. will lower its tariffs on Indian products below those applied to most Asian countries. In addition to cutting the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18%, Washington will also remove an extra 25% punitive tariff tied specifically to India’s purchases of Russian oil.

Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to buy US$500 billion worth of American products, reduce Indian tariffs to zero, and stop importing Russian crude—one of Washington’s key demands. While Modi has not publicly confirmed the specifics of the deal, officials on both sides welcomed the announcement, and investors reacted positively to the news.

The Russian Oil Dilemma

That said, Indian refineries are likely to require a transition period to unwind existing oil supply agreements with Russia before imports can be fully halted. According to Reuters, the Indian government has not yet instructed refiners to stop buying Russian crude.

Meanwhile, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin said it has received no official communication from India regarding a suspension of oil purchases.

In this context, credit rating agency Moody’s warned that an abrupt halt to Russian oil imports could disrupt India’s economic growth. “A complete shift away from non-Russian oil could also tighten global supply, push prices higher, and lead to increased inflation, given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers,” the agency said.

Wall Street Starts February Higher and Silver Jumps 11%

Posted on February 3, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 49,407.66 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.57% to 6,978.65, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.56% to 23,592.11.

Silver’s Momentum Reset Sets the Stage for the Next Leg Higher

Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher on Monday, February 2, supported by gains in defensive consumer-staples stocks. Investors rebounded from last week’s relentless sell-off in gold and silver and shifted their focus back to trade developments, after President Donald Trump announced a new agreement with India.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 49,407.66 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.57% to 6,978.65, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.56% to 23,592.11.

[[SPX-graph]]

India moves away from Russian oil

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said he had spoken with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi about “many things,” including trade and efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“He agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, from Venezuela,” Trump said, referring to Modi. India’s purchases of Russian crude had been a major sticking point in trade negotiations with Washington.

Trump also said both leaders agreed on a trade deal under which the U.S. would lower its reciprocal tariff rate on India from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India committed to purchasing more than $500 billion worth of U.S. products.

January jobs report delayed

Media reports on Monday indicated that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics had delayed the release of the January employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, due to the partial government shutdown.

Federal government services were suspended over the weekend after the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding package covering five appropriations bills on Friday, but the House of Representatives did not return to work until Monday.

The shutdown is not expected to resemble last year’s record-long closure, as lawmakers anticipate that the House will approve the funding package.

Confidence rebounds at the start of February

Market sentiment had been severely hit late last week by a sharp collapse in gold and silver prices. Precious metals were pressured by a stronger dollar and heavy profit-taking following months of strong gains.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

However, sentiment improved quickly. At the start of the next trading day, spot gold posted one of its strongest daily gains in decades during Tuesday’s Asian session, while spot silver also staged a sharp rebound. Gold surged more than 5%, climbing back above $4,850 an ounce, while silver jumped over 11%, reclaiming levels above $85 an ounce.

Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Bet on Robust Corporate Profits in 2026

Posted on February 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies remain solid.

Wall Street operators are ready for the earnings season.

Against a global backdrop marked by volatility and structural shifts in financial markets, two of Wall Street’s leading institutions—Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan—are growing increasingly optimistic about the outlook for U.S. corporations heading into 2026.

That confidence is grounded in a combination of strong corporate results, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and a notable equity rotation that is broadening market leadership after years of near-exclusive dominance by mega-cap technology stocks.

Why Goldman Sachs Is Confident in Wall Street Earnings

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, profit forecasts for S&P 500 companies remain healthy. More than half of the firms that have already issued guidance for 2026 have exceeded analysts’ expectations, pointing to resilient and broad-based earnings growth.

Goldman expects the index to finish the year higher, supported by an estimated 12% increase in earnings per share, reflecting the strength of corporate fundamentals across multiple sectors.

This focus on profit growth underpins the bank’s constructive outlook: while the bull market may not replicate the outsized gains seen in 2025, there is growing consensus that ample upside remains, driven by solid fundamentals and an economy that continues to show momentum.

J.P. Morgan shares a similarly upbeat view. Its strategists noted that the current earnings season has delivered “encouraging” results, with capital expenditures supported by strong and expanding profits. This dynamic is helping to broaden the earnings base beyond the sectors that previously led the market.

A Strategic Market Rotation

A key element in both banks’ narrative is the equity rotation that has taken hold on Wall Street. After years in which the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants accounted for much of the market’s performance, investors are increasingly shifting toward mid- and small-cap stocks, as well as cyclical sectors such as materials, healthcare, and consumer industries.

This rotation is not only diversifying sources of returns but also reducing reliance on a handful of mega-cap companies. Looking ahead to 2026, this expanding market breadth could translate into lower vulnerability to sharp corrections and a wider range of opportunities for active investors.

Market Reversal: Gold, Silver, and Oil Rout as the Dollar Gains Strength

Posted on February 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Gold fell 3.2% and silver dropped 3.4% after weeks of record highs. Oil plunged 5% on signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a stronger dollar.

Commodity-linked financial assets posted sharp losses on Monday, amid a broad market selloff driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and signs of geopolitical de-escalation. Gold, silver, and oil led the declines after several weeks of rapid gains and repeated record highs.

In precious metals, spot gold fell as much as nearly 10% intraday before trimming losses. By 10:08 GMT, it was down 3.2% at $4,708.19 per ounce, extending the correction that began after reaching a record $5,594.82 on January 29. Since that peak, gold has lost roughly $900, erasing a significant portion of its year-to-date gains.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

The sharpest single-day drop occurred on January 30, when gold plunged more than 9.8%, marking its steepest daily decline since 1983. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.3% at $4,730.40 per ounce.

Speculative Silver Moves

Silver proved even more volatile. Spot prices fell 3.4% to $81.65 per ounce, after tumbling as much as 15% earlier in the session. In cumulative terms, silver has now dropped nearly 33% from its all-time high of $121.64, reached just last week.

One of the key triggers behind the selloff was the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) decision to raise margin requirements for precious-metal futures. The move was announced on January 30 and took effect after Monday’s market close. Analysts noted that higher margins increase the cost of holding speculative positions, forcing many investors to unwind trades.

U.S. monetary policy expectations also weighed on the market. Following the formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, investors began recalibrating their outlook. While Warsh is generally seen as supportive of rate cuts over the medium term, markets anticipate a tougher stance on balance-sheet policy, a dynamic that typically supports the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index edged higher in recent days, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers and adding further downward pressure on precious metals.

Other metals followed the same trend. Platinum fell 4.3% to $2,070.64 per ounce, after hitting a record $2,918.80 on January 26. Palladium declined 2.1% to $1,662.68 per ounce.

Netflix Slides to One-Year Low as Market Uncertainty Grows Over Warner Bros.

Posted on February 2, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

Despite posting solid results, shares of the streaming giant have fallen to their lowest level in a year, as investors grow increasingly concerned about the financial impact of a potential US$100 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Netflix is in the midst of a major deal and could see stock values surge.

Even after delivering strong operating performance, Netflix shares slid to a 52-week low, reflecting mounting market skepticism toward the company’s expansion strategy. The decline comes alongside speculation that Netflix could prevail in the US$100 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery—an operation that, rather than exciting investors, has revived concerns over margins, leverage, and financial discipline.

The market’s negative reaction does not stem from weakness in Netflix’s core business. The company remains profitable and continues to aggressively expand both its content offering and advertising infrastructure. Instead, investor unease reflects a clash between Netflix’s long-term strategic vision and short-term financial constraints. The focus has shifted to potential margin compression and the uncertain costs associated with an acquisition of such magnitude.

Speaking with Fortune, Melissa Otto, Director at Visible Alpha (S&P Global), was blunt: Netflix shares could become “dead money until a meaningful catalyst emerges.” Since the announcement of the Warner Bros. deal, the stock has fallen from around US$109 to the low-US$80 range, as investors reassess the company’s growth model.

Markets have also reacted cautiously to changes in the deal’s structure, which shifted to an all-cash offer, as well as Netflix’s decision to suspend its share buyback program. According to Anthony Sabino, a law professor at St. John’s University, investors are wary of the level of debt Netflix would need to assume to finance the transaction—even if the strategic rationale appears compelling.

Netflix warns of margin pressure

Adding to these concerns are Netflix’s own forward-looking projections. The company has signaled declining profit margins, consistent with a return to pre-pandemic spending levels. Content costs are expected to reach approximately US$20 billion this year, with no clear signs of deceleration.

While some analysts continue to see upside in areas such as advertising and live events, the outcome of the Warner Bros. transaction has emerged as the single most important factor shaping the stock’s performance.

China Imposes Full-Day Silver Fund Pauses Amid Commodity Mania

Posted on February 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

China suspended trading of five commodity funds on Friday to reduce the underlying risks of investment mania in gold, silver, and oil, and to stop the mania of gold, silver, and oil investors.

The only public fund investing in silver futures in mainland China, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, a listed open-ended fund (LOF), will be suspended for the entire day on Friday, the second such halt since January 22.

The only public fund in China that makes direct investments in silver futures, the UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, was suspended for the duration of the trading day. After several risk alerts and brief pauses since late 2025, this is its second full-day suspension since January 22.

The fund has traded at unsustainable premiums—around 36 percent over Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contracts—driven by speculative demand, social media hype, and limited alternatives for Chinese investors to gain silver exposure.

Shorter one-hour suspensions (until 10:30 a.m.) were imposed on four oil LOFs. According to analysts quoted in reports, these halts are intended to preserve capital market stability, shield retail investors from potential “huge losses” if conditions abruptly reverse, and lower underlying systemic risks.

A significant increase in silver and gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply limitations (including China’s previous export restrictions), is among the background factors.

Chinese investors’ speculative demand, demonstrated by the premiums local prices have earned over international benchmarks, contributed to the increase in global prices. There have also been other indications of high demand. With warnings that the premium over Shanghai Futures Exchange contracts is “unsustainable,”

China’s sole pure-play silver fund temporarily stopped trading this week and turned away new clients. Citigroup Inc. stated earlier this week that “Chinese retail investors tend to be trend-following, like traders in US futures and derivatives markets.”

The bank projected that silver would reach $150 in three months and that strong buying would continue “due to robust short-term momentum.” Gold prices have risen alongside demand from exchange-traded funds backed by the metal. However, ETF withdrawals have not stopped silver’s recent sharp increases.

Gold and Silver Plunge Nearly 30% as the Dollar Strengthens

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the designation of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp correction in metals and weighed on oil prices and other key assets.

Gold and silver prices plunged by as much as nearly 30% on Friday, in a session marked by a stronger dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell.

Spot gold fell 8.8% to $4,893.14 per ounce, while silver collapsed almost 28% to $83.96.

The sell-off—described by analysts as a broad profit-taking move—also pressured other precious metals. The drivers behind the sharp decline appear to be a combination of factors, ranging from the announcement of the incoming Fed chair to broader macroeconomic flows.

Whether we look at the dollar or real yield expectations, the combination of these factors helped trigger profit-taking. Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as his candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May, placing a frequent critic of the central bank in one of the most influential economic roles.

Gold had reached a record high of $5,594.82 per ounce on Thursday and remains on track to post a nearly 16% gain for the month, marking its sixth consecutive monthly advance.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Stronger Dollar After Warsh Confirmation

Warsh’s nomination fueled a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which recovered part of the losses accumulated earlier in the week and rebounded from its lowest levels in nearly four years.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.7% to 96.835. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.6%, the British pound slipped 0.5%, and the dollar gained 1% against the Japanese yen.

[[USD/JPY-graph]]

A stronger dollar makes gold and other dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers, further amplifying the correction in precious metals.

Oil Prices Fall on Signs of Easing Tensions With Iran

Oil prices also declined on Friday amid indications that the United States may pursue talks with Iran over its nuclear program, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions from a U.S. military strike. Still, crude prices were heading toward strong monthly gains due to elevated geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude futures fell $1.10 to $69.61 per barrel, after rising 3.4% and closing Thursday at their highest level since July 31. The March contract expires on Friday. The more actively traded April contract slipped $1.29 to $68.30.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.25 to $64.17 per barrel, after also gaining 3.4% in the previous session.

Who Is Kevin Warsh, the Pick to Lead the Federal Reserve

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The former Federal Reserve governor will replace Jerome Powell in May, amid strong pressure from the White House to curb the independence of the U.S. central bank.

Stocks are down today as Warsh is nominated for Fed Governor.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday selected economist and former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the central bank when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

“I’ve known Kevin for a long time and I have no doubt that he will go down in history as one of the GREAT Federal Reserve chairs—perhaps the best. Beyond everything else, he’s a central figure and he will never let you down,” Trump said on Friday morning.

During his first term, Trump had passed over Warsh in favor of Powell, a decision he later publicly regretted when the Fed chair refused to cut interest rates as quickly and aggressively as the president demanded.

This time around, Trump made explicit support for lower interest rates one of his key criteria for choosing the next head of the U.S. central bank.

Warsh’s background and his shift on high rates

Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and has deep Wall Street experience, including a role as a partner at the firm managing the fortune of legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller. He also has family ties to Ron Lauder, a prominent Trump supporter.

During his tenure at the Fed, Warsh was the primary liaison between then-Chair Ben Bernanke and Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis, and a leading advocate of a more restrictive monetary policy stance.

In recent months, however, he has shifted his position and publicly aligned himself with Trump’s criticism of the Fed. In particular, he has argued that the central bank has underestimated the disinflationary potential of productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.

Markets expect moderation: tensions with Trump ahead?

Warsh has called for a “regime change” in monetary policy. Among his proposals is a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet—an idea that clashes with Trump’s preference for looser monetary conditions, at a time when the president has been pushing for greater control over the central bank.

Markets view Warsh as supportive of interest rate cuts, but far less inclined toward the aggressive easing associated with other potential candidates Trump had considered, such as Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder.

Just a day before the nomination was made official, Trump publicly insulted Powell, calling him an “idiot” and demanding a “substantial” reduction in interest rates, arguing that the United States should have “the lowest rates in the world.”

Gold Plunges, the Dollar Strengthens, and Oil Slides After the Fed Pivots

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp correction in gold and put downward pressure on oil prices and other key assets.

Gold prices plunged more than 7%, breaking below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold, in a session dominated by dollar strength after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell.

Spot gold fell 7.5% to $4,992.05 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery dropped 6.4% to $4,985. The selloff came just one day after the precious metal hit a record high of $5,594.82 per ounce.

Despite the sharp daily pullback, gold remains on track to close January with gains of more than 15%, which would mark its best monthly performance since 1999 and its sixth consecutive monthly advance.

Stronger dollar after Warsh confirmation

Warsh’s appointment at the helm of the Fed sparked a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which recovered part of its weekly losses and moved away from four-year lows.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.37% to 96.48 points. At the same time, the euro fell 0.3%, sterling slipped 0.4%, and the dollar gained 0.5% against the Japanese yen.

A stronger dollar makes gold and other dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers, contributing to the deeper correction in precious metals.

Precious metals: broad-based profit taking

The decline in gold spread across the broader precious metals complex, which also posted steep losses amid heavy profit-taking after weeks of record-breaking gains.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Spot silver plunged 14.1% to $99.77 per ounce after reaching an all-time high of $121.64 on Thursday. Even so, silver is up nearly 42% for the month, on track for its strongest monthly performance on record.

Platinum slid 15.7% to $2,216.55 per ounce after touching a record $2,918.80 earlier in the week, while palladium dropped 13.4% to $1,737.50.

Oil retreats amid signs of easing tensions with Iran

Oil prices also moved lower, falling close to 1%, after Trump signaled openness to renewed dialogue with Iran over its nuclear program, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.

[[USOIL-graph]]

Brent crude slipped to $70.03 per barrel, while the most active contract fell to $68.79. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $64.70 per barrel.

The U.S. Lifted Some Sanctions on Venezuela to Facilitate Oil Sales

Posted on January 30, 2026 by Ignacio Teson

The move was announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC and will allow U.S. companies to buy, sell, transport, store, and refine Venezuelan crude oil.

The energy sector is closing in on Venezuela with Maduro out.

The U.S. government has lifted some sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s oil industry in an effort to facilitate the sale, purchase, and transportation of its crude by American companies. While additional easing measures are expected, restrictions related to oil production remain in place.

The OFAC authorization allows U.S. firms to buy, sell, transport, store, and refine Venezuelan crude, but it does not lift existing U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil production itself.

A White House official told Reuters that the measure would “help existing Venezuelan oil flow to market” and added that further announcements on sanctions relief would follow. President Donald Trump said the United States intends to maintain indefinite oversight of Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues following the removal of former President Nicolás Maduro.

U.S. eases Venezuela sanctions to support oil sales

The Republican leader said he wants U.S. oil companies to invest up to $100 billion to restore production in the OPEC member country to its historical peak levels, after years of underinvestment and mismanagement.

Meanwhile, Washington and Caracas have already reached a preliminary agreement to sell 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. European trading houses Vitol and Trafigura will handle the commercialization of the supply. The new Treasury authorization—known as a general license—opens Venezuelan oil trade to additional companies, provided they are based in the United States.

The measure permits transactions involving the Venezuelan government and state-owned oil company PDVSA related to the “loading, export, re-export, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil, including the refining of such oil, by a U.S.-based entity.”

The license explicitly excludes companies and individuals from rival countries such as China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Russia. It also does not authorize payment arrangements that are not commercially reasonable, that involve debt swaps or payments in gold, or that are denominated in digital currencies.