Category: Daily Opportunities

Mexican Peso Slips Against the Dollar, Posts Weekly Loss of 1.84%

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso ended slightly lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, weighed down by renewed market jitters following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on dozens of trade partners—including key countries like Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan.

The exchange rate closed at 18.8886 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.8680 the previous day, according to data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico). This marks a modest daily decline of 2.06 centavos, or 0.11%.

The dollar traded in a wide range during the session, between a high of 18.9810 and a low of 18.5109 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, dropped 1.24% to 98.82 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Tariff Anxiety and U.S. Job Data Drive Volatility

Although President Donald Trump granted Mexico a 90-day extension before imposing tariffs on its exports, he raised duties on several other countries, sparking concerns about broader economic fallout.

The peso initially tumbled to its weakest level in over a month but pared losses after weaker-than-expected U.S. job data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, easing some pressure on the peso.

Following the report, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with odds jumping to 90% from 45% before the data. A Fed rate cut could help support the peso—especially as Banxico is also expected to ease policy further in 2025, with markets now pricing in up to 50 basis points of cuts.

Weekly Loss and Year-End Outlook

For the week, the peso posted a sharp 1.84% loss, retreating from 18.5469 last Friday to 18.8886—an overall drop of 34.17 centavos.

A Banxico survey released Friday showed that analysts now expect the peso to close the year at 19.80 per dollar, which would imply a roughly 4.8% decline from current levels. Still, this outlook is slightly more optimistic than the previous forecast of 20.13.

Bitcoin Plunges to $113,000 as Altcoins Drop Up to 6%

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its downward trend on Friday, dropping to around $113,000 and distancing itself from its all-time high of $122,979.87 reached on July 14.

The broader crypto market followed suit, with altcoins retreating by as much as 6%, according to Binance data. The selloff in cryptocurrencies mirrors losses on Wall Street, where major stock indexes fell in response to a series of aggressive new tariff announcements by the U.S., which rattled global markets.

BTC dropped 3% on the day to $113,483, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 5.6% to $3,545.45. Over the past week, Bitcoin is down 2.7% and ETH has shed 3.6%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Among other major coins, XRP slipped 1.5% to $3.01, BNB declined 4.4% to $759.01, and Solana (SOL) lost 5.4% to $165.69. Memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) retreated 3% to $0.2066, and Tron (TRX) edged down 0.6% to $0.326.

Potential for a Deeper Correction Ahead

According to a new report from Buenbit, the latest U.S. tariffs on countries without bilateral trade deals have amplified market volatility, pressuring the S&P 500 and boosting the U.S. dollar—both of which have weighed on crypto assets.

The report noted that BTC broke below the $116,000 mark this week, ending a 16-day consolidation period—an indicator that a deeper correction could be underway. “This technical breakdown occurred in a macroeconomic context that, while relatively stable, remains restrictive,” the report added. The Federal Reserve recently held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive time, and fresh U.S. tariff announcements added further turbulence to global markets.

In parallel, the U.S. government released an extensive digital asset policy report with recommendations for the SEC, Treasury, and banking regulators, aiming to clarify the regulatory framework for crypto markets.

Looking ahead to August—a historically tough month for cryptocurrencies since 2021—analysts at Buenbit emphasize the importance of maintaining key support levels: $114,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH. Positive flows into in-kind exchange-traded products (ETPs) and visible progress on regulatory implementation will also be crucial to reversing the current bearish cycle.

Trump’s Tariffs Hit BRICS Nations Hard

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Several BRICS countries—including Brazil, South Africa, and India—were hit with above-average tariffs in the latest wave of trade measures announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Brazil, in particular, was targeted with a steep 50% tariff, the highest imposed on any U.S. trade partner. South Africa faced a 30% tariff, while India was hit with 25%. Meanwhile, the U.S. extended trade negotiations with China and threatened fresh sanctions against Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine.

The moves come just two weeks after Trump sharply criticized the BRICS bloc following its July summit in Rio de Janeiro, where member nations reaffirmed plans to strengthen financial ties, develop BRICS Pay—a cross-border payment system in local currencies—and launch a new multilateral guarantee fund.

“When I learned about this so-called BRICS group—basically six countries—I came down on them hard,” Trump said on July 18. “And if they ever become something serious, they won’t last long. We cannot let anyone play games with us.” Trump also reaffirmed his commitment to preserving the U.S. dollar’s global reserve status and warned that any country aligning with what he called the group’s “anti-American policies” would face tariffs.

Shortly before those remarks, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) opened an investigation into Brazil over alleged unfair practices affecting American firms operating there. A key focus of the probe is Pix, Brazil’s central bank–developed instant payment system, which U.S. officials claim disadvantages foreign competitors.

A Strategic Blow to a Rising Bloc

The BRICS nations collectively represent nearly 48% of the world’s population and account for 27.1% of global GDP—slightly more than the United States’ 26.3%, according to American Quarterly. Since 2020, and especially following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, BRICS countries have intensified economic and political cooperation, increasing trade volumes, investments, and shared initiatives across sectors. This growing influence challenges the long-standing dominance of the U.S.-led global order.

Trump’s aggressive tariff measures are seen by some analysts as a deliberate attempt to fracture BRICS solidarity. India, in particular, was singled out not only for its trade practices but also for its close ties to Russia.

“India has always bought the majority of its military equipment from Russia and remains one of the largest buyers of Russian energy, alongside China,” Trump stated. “They’re helping finance the war in Ukraine.”

He later added: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can drag each other’s dead economies down, for all I care. We’ve done very little business with India. Their tariffs are way too high—some of the highest in the world.”

Looking Ahead

As BRICS continues to rise in geopolitical relevance, experts suggest the U.S. may eventually need to reach some form of accommodation with the group. “You can’t strike a deal with the EU and ignore BRICS,” one analyst noted. “Collectively, these countries carry serious weight.”

U.S. Job Growth Cools Sharply in July, Signs of Labor Market Weakness Emerge

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. labor market cooled more than expected in July, with only 73,000 jobs added—well below the 176,000 forecast—highlighting a marked slowdown in hiring.

Adding to the downbeat tone, June’s figures were revised downward by 14,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June.

The report, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflects a significant loss of momentum in the labor market. It came just two days after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, reinforcing the sense of caution among policymakers.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described the labor market as being in “balance,” noting that both supply and demand for workers are easing in tandem—but warned that this dynamic carries downside risks.

Hiring has also slowed amid uncertainty over the final structure of the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. On Thursday, just ahead of his self-imposed deadline, Trump announced steep new tariffs on dozens of trade partners.

Further compounding labor market strain are the White House’s tough immigration policies, which have tightened the supply of available workers and accelerated the retirement wave among baby boomers.

With lower immigration inflows, economists now estimate the U.S. economy only needs to create around 100,000 jobs per month—or even fewer—to keep pace with the working-age population. July’s figure fell well short of that threshold, raising concerns about the health of the post-pandemic labor recovery.

Mexican Peso Ends Flat After Trade Deal with U.S., Posts Loss for July

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso closed Thursday’s session virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar, following news that Mexico secured a 90-day extension on the grace period before new U.S. tariffs take effect.

The exchange rate ended the day at 18.8680 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.8567 the previous day, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a marginal loss of 1.13 centavos, or 0.06%.

Throughout the session, the dollar traded between a high of 18.9053 and a low of 18.7719 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.12% to 100.08 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Tariff Agreement Provides Temporary Relief

Just one day before the U.S. tariffs were set to take effect, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she had reached an agreement with President Donald Trump during a phone call to delay their implementation.

The new grace period grants Mexico an additional 90 days before a 30% tariff on its exports is applied. Trump confirmed the extension on his social platform Truth Social, though he stated that the 25% tariff on fentanyl trafficking would remain in place.

While the delay is seen as a positive development—and could help Mexico avoid a recession—the broader economic outlook remains uncertain.

Intra-Day Recovery

The peso managed to recover from earlier losses triggered by dollar strength, fueled by both the tariff news and strong U.S. economic data. At its lowest point during the session, the peso hit its weakest level in over a month.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. reported that its core inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—closely watched by the Federal Reserve—rose 2.6% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts.

On the labor front, jobless claims rose by just 1,000 last week to 218,000, indicating continued stability in the U.S. job market and low layoff rates.

Negative Month for the Peso

Despite the stable close, July ended on a sour note for the Mexican currency. Compared to its level of 18.7654 at the end of June, the peso lost 10.26 centavos over the month, a decline of 0.55%.

Ferrari Plunges 13% on Wall Street — Worst Drop Since IPO

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Ferrari’s stock plunged nearly 13% on Wall Street—its steepest single-day drop since going public—even after the Italian supercar maker posted financial results that beat Wall Street expectations. The selloff was driven by growing concerns over the company’s future profitability.

The sharp decline came after Ferrari announced plans to cut prices in the U.S., one of its key markets. According to analysts at Citigroup, this move could pressure profit margins amid slowing growth in both sales volumes and average vehicle prices. Investors are now closely watching how Ferrari’s operating margins will hold up in the second half of the year.

The pricing change is part of Ferrari’s strategy to adjust U.S. vehicle pricing now that tariffs on European Union-made products are expected to fall from 27.5% to 15%. The price cuts aim to roll back earlier increases introduced in April, but markets worry this will weigh on earnings.

Solid Results Overshadowed by Margin Concerns

Despite the negative market reaction, Ferrari delivered strong second-quarter results that exceeded analyst forecasts.

Revenue came in at €1.787 billion, up 4% year-over-year at constant currency and in line with expectations. Of that, €1.507 billion came from car and parts sales, and €205 million from commercial partnerships.

Adjusted net profit reached €425 million, up 3% from the same quarter in 2024. Earnings per share stood at €2.38, beating the market consensus of €2.12.

Ferrari also reported it delivered 3,494 cars during the quarter—10 more than the same period last year. Deliveries were distributed across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (1,646 units); the Americas (993); China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (274); and the rest of Asia-Pacific (581).

While the fundamentals remain strong, the market’s focus has shifted to how Ferrari will maintain profitability in the face of pricing pressures and a slower sales outlook.

Donald Trump Delays Tariff Hike on Mexico by 90 Days

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday that current tariffs on Mexican goods will remain unchanged for the next 90 days, allowing time to negotiate a new trade agreement.

The decision came after a phone call with Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum.

“We have agreed to extend, for 90 days, exactly the same deal we had during the previous short-term period,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Under the agreement, Mexico will continue paying a 25% tariff on fentanyl, 25% on automobiles, and 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper.

Trump also claimed that Mexico had agreed to immediately remove many of its non-tariff trade barriers, though he did not specify which ones. Many Mexican exports are already protected under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the regional trade pact that replaced NAFTA.

Tariffs Take Effect Amid Push to Cut U.S. Trade Deficit

The Trump administration’s broader tariff strategy aims to reduce the U.S.’s long-standing trade deficit, even if it means slower economic growth and higher inflation—both at home and abroad.

Friday, August 1, marks the deadline Trump set for reaching tariff agreements with key trade partners. As that deadline approaches, the U.S. has secured deals with just nine countries: the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, the European Union, South Korea, Pakistan, and India. Notably, each agreement includes different tariff levels:

So far, the U.S. has reached deals with just nine countries: the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, the European Union, South Korea, Pakistan, and India. However, the final tariff rates vary widely. For instance, the U.K. accepted a 10% tariff, the same as the original proposal; Vietnam agreed to a reduced 20% rate, down from an initially proposed 46%; and Japan settled at 15%, lower than the original 24%.

Some countries saw increases: the Philippines agreed to a 19% tariff, up from 17%, and the European Union accepted a 15% rate, higher than the 10% initially floated. South Korea’s final rate was 15%, reduced from the proposed 25%. Pakistan’s final figure hasn’t been disclosed, but the original offer was 29%. India settled at 25%, just below the originally proposed 26%.

Meanwhile, other nations—including Argentina—are still in talks, hoping to finalize agreements in the coming days.

Microsoft Surpasses $4 Trillion in Market Capitalization

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Microsoft, the tech giant founded by Bill Gates, has officially become the second company in history to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion—surpassed only by Nvidia.

The milestone came after Microsoft reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, triggering a surge in its share price during Thursday’s pre-market trading.

Shares jumped as much as 9.1%, reaching $560 per share. Until now, Nvidia had been the only company to cross the $4 trillion mark, achieving the feat earlier this month.

Microsoft’s rise reflects its growing influence in the artificial intelligence space, where it has emerged as one of the key players fueling a wave of market capitalization gains across the tech sector.

A standout from the earnings report was Microsoft’s cloud business. Azure, its cloud computing unit, posted a 39% increase in revenue—well above the 34% analysts had forecast.

Within the so-called “Magnificent Seven” group of major tech firms, Microsoft now ranks as the second-best performer. After a sharp drop in April—when its stock hit lows due to tariff threats from President Donald Trump—Microsoft shares have rallied nearly 45%, closing near record highs.

Wall Street responded positively to this latest milestone. Of the 72 analysts covering the stock, 65 now rate it a “Buy,” while only one recommends selling.

Nvidia Still Leads the Pack

Despite Microsoft’s achievement, Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable company. Boosted by investor enthusiasm over its dominant role in AI, Nvidia surpassed Microsoft in late June to take the top spot.

As of Wednesday, Nvidia shares were trading around $157.42, up 2.62% from Tuesday’s close. At the end of June, Nvidia’s market cap stood at $3.86 trillion—4.3% higher than Microsoft’s $3.69 trillion. In early July, Nvidia became the first company to cross the $4 trillion threshold, cementing its leadership in the increasingly competitive AI space.

Mexican Peso Slips as Dollar Strengthens; Closes at 18.85 per Dollar

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso lost ground against the dollar on Wednesday, as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady and reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data.

The exchange rate closed at 18.8567 pesos per dollar, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), marking a loss of 10.58 centavos or 0.56% compared to Tuesday’s close of 18.7509. The dollar traded in a range between 18.6990 and 18.8709 pesos during the session.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The dollar gained strength after U.S. GDP data showed the economy expanded 3% in the second quarter, beating analyst estimates. In addition, ADP employment figures showed continued strength in the labor market. These upbeat numbers, while signaling economic resilience, also dampened hopes of an imminent Fed rate cut.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 1.02% to 99.93 points.

Federal Reserve Decision

The peso’s losses were further fueled by the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, maintaining the federal funds target range at 4.25%–4.50%. The vote was not unanimous, with two officials favoring a 25-basis-point cut, reflecting growing division within the committee.

The Fed’s cautious stance amid global uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures continues to limit room for carry trades, potentially putting more upward pressure on the exchange rate. Resistance levels remain near the 50-day moving average at 18.91 and at 19 pesos per dollar.

On the local front, Mexico’s preliminary GDP data for the second quarter showed growth of 0.7%, beating expectations of 0.4%. However, this was not enough to support the peso, as the impact was overshadowed by the strength of the U.S. economy and the rising dollar.

Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on Copper Imports

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Wednesday imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1, citing national security concerns.

The tariffs will not apply to copper scrap or raw materials such as copper ores, concentrates, blister, cathodes, or anodes, according to the statement. The move follows a Section 232 investigation ordered by Trump in February.

Alongside the tariffs, the order includes measures to support the domestic copper industry—most notably, a requirement that 25% of high-grade copper scrap produced in the U.S. be sold domestically.

Copper prices fell as much as 18% before trimming losses, trading at $5.1310 per pound. Much of the U.S. market had anticipated some form of tariff on raw copper, a key input for wiring and other materials widely used in construction and automotive manufacturing.

The U.S. imported $17 billion worth of copper last year, according to Commerce Department data. Chile was the largest foreign supplier, shipping $6 billion worth of copper to the U.S. in 2024.

More Tariffs: Trump Targets India with New Trade Penalties

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new 25% tariff on goods imported from India, along with an additional penalty tied to India’s ongoing purchases of oil from Russia.

Posting on Truth Social Wednesday, Trump said that while “India is our friend,” its tariffs on U.S. products are “far too high.” He also criticized India for buying military equipment and oil from Russia—actions he claims have helped prolong the war in Ukraine.

As a result, Trump said the U.S. will impose an extra trade penalty on Indian imports starting Friday, as part of a broader update to tariffs affecting multiple countries.