Category: Daily Opportunities

Argentina surprises with 6.3% GDP growth in H2 2025

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from a 5.8% increase in the previous quarter, the National Statistics and Census Institute (Indec) said on Wednesday.

Argentina’s new president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech before the crowd, during an inauguration ceremony at the Congress in Buenos Aires on December 10, 2023. Libertarian economist Javier Milei was sworn in Sunday as Argentina’s president, after a resounding election victory fuelled by fury over the country’s economic crisis. (Photo by Luis ROBAYO / AFP)

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast 6.5% growth for the April–June period, while the central bank’s (BCRA) most recent market expectations report projected a more modest 4.4% annual expansion for 2025.

Despite the upbeat GDP figure, analysts caution that the economy continues to face major challenges, with persistent weakness in consumer spending and industrial activity. High interest rates and long-standing structural issues also threaten the sustainability of growth in the medium term.

Domestic strains and financial stress

Markets turned jittery after the BCRA intervened by selling foreign reserves, raising concerns about its capacity to meet upcoming debt obligations. Investor unease deepened as government setbacks in Congress added to political uncertainty.

Dollar-denominated bonds slumped sharply on Thursday, dropping as much as 7.8% in New York, while locally traded bonds tumbled up to 11.2%. The country’s risk premium surged past 1,400 basis points, extending a more than 50% jump since the ruling coalition La Libertad Avanza suffered a heavy defeat in the Buenos Aires provincial elections.

The sell-off highlights growing skepticism over Argentina’s ability to stabilize its finances, with investors bracing for heightened volatility ahead.

New U.S.-Regulated Crypto Aims to Become Everyday Payment Currency

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The digital currency could play a role in payroll processing due to its stability while fully complying with the most stringent regulatory standards.

Tether, a global leader in the digital asset ecosystem, has launched a U.S.-regulated cryptocurrency called USA, designed to position itself as a digital alternative to cash and traditional payment systems.

The token arrives backed by transparent reserves and strict compliance with U.S. oversight. Its issuance is framed within the recently approved GENIUS Act, which regulates the creation of stablecoins and represents a major step toward bridging financial innovation with regulatory control.

The new stablecoin will leverage Hadron by Tether, considered the most advanced tokenization platform for real-world assets. It will be issued by Anchorage Digital, the first federally regulated crypto bank in the United States, with Cantor Fitzgerald serving as both reserve custodian and primary distributor.

Payroll and everyday transactions

Similar to USDC and USDT, the new coin aims to become one of the leading options for salary payments, benefiting from its stable value compared to volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Stablecoins are also subject to the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, which began implementation in June 2024 across the European Union and is expected to be fully enforced by 2026.

These digital assets have increasingly functioned as a form of “digital dollar” in emerging markets and communities with limited access to traditional financial services, reaching nearly 500 million users worldwide.

Tether’s market leadership

Currently, Tether’s USD token is the most widely adopted stablecoin globally, with a market capitalization exceeding $169 billion. Its daily transaction volume already surpasses that of traditional payment giants, including major credit card operators and remittance companies.

With USA, Tether aims to strengthen its foothold in the regulated digital financial infrastructure, driving adoption for payroll, consumer spending, and everyday transactions under a strict U.S. regulatory framework.

Fed Rate Cut Boosts Mexican Peso at Market Close

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso extended its rally on Wednesday, closing stronger against the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts, a move that fueled appetite for emerging-market currencies.

With the advance, the peso notched its eighth consecutive winning session, bringing its cumulative appreciation to 2.25% in that stretch.

According to data from Banco de México (Banxico), the peso settled at 18.3186 per dollar, a gain of 0.23% or 4.18 cents from Monday’s close. The move pushed the currency to its strongest level since July 23, 2024, when it touched 18.1690 per dollar.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The boost came as the Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark rate, bringing it into the 4.00%-4.25% range. While widely expected, the decision confirmed the central bank’s shift toward a more accommodative stance.

The updated “dot plot” signaled two more cuts before year-end, a dovish tilt that weighed on the dollar globally. The ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.36% on the day to 96.98 but remains under pressure as markets anticipate further easing.

Wall Street: Stocks Performance

On Wall Street, trading turned volatile after the Fed’s move. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 6,600.35, while the Nasdaq fell 0.33% to 22,261.33, pressured by weakness in tech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 0.57% to 46,018.32 after fluctuating during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, in which he highlighted growing risks in the labor market.

The Fed’s decision and forward guidance will now test Wall Street’s recent rally, which has been underpinned by expectations of rate cuts and renewed enthusiasm around AI-linked stocks. But sentiment took a hit Wednesday as Nvidia dragged on the Nasdaq: shares fell after a report that China’s internet regulator had ordered the country’s top tech firms to halt purchases of all chips made by the AI leader.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the peso to remain supported as long as Fed policy stays dovish and U.S. labor data remain weak. However, a sustained rally could face headwinds if risk sentiment sours or if U.S. yields rebound unexpectedly.

Fed Slashes Rates for the First Time in 2025 – More Cuts Coming

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark rate, bringing it to a range of 4%-4.25%, in a decision widely anticipated by the market.

The move reflects weak employment data in recent months, while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Officials also signaled that additional cuts are likely for the remainder of 2025.

“The recent data suggest that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job creation has slowed and the unemployment rate has edged up slightly, but remains low. Inflation has risen and remains somewhat elevated,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in its statement. The committee highlighted that “uncertainty about economic prospects remains high” and that downside risks to employment have increased.

In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the slowdown largely reflects weaker labor force growth due to lower immigration and reduced labor participation. He added that labor demand has softened, with job creation below the level needed to keep unemployment stable.

Market Expectations and Future Cuts

Market expectations quickly aligned with the Fed’s guidance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now see two additional 25-basis-point cuts this year—on October 29 and December 10—totaling 50 points. The Fed’s “dot plot” projections also suggest a policy rate averaging 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, down from prior expectations of 3.6% and 3.4%.

Powell addressed the impact of tariffs, noting that while recent measures have begun pushing prices for some goods, their overall effect on inflation is expected to be temporary. Still, he acknowledged that longer-lasting inflationary effects remain a risk.

The rate cut was supported by 11 of the 12 FOMC members, with new governor Stephen Miran dissenting, advocating a larger 50-basis-point reduction. Questions about central bank independence arose due to Miran’s prior role as a top economic advisor to former President Trump.

Europe Proposes Higher Tariffs on Israel, Sanctions Two Ministers

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The European Commission on Wednesday proposed raising tariffs on certain Israeli imports—primarily agricultural products—and sanctioning two of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right ministers.

“The goal is not to punish Israel. The goal is to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels.

If adopted by the bloc’s 27 member states, the new trade measures would increase the cost of targeted Israeli imports by roughly €227 million ($269 million). Israel exported €15.9 billion worth of goods to the EU last year, making the bloc its largest trading partner. Under the proposal, around 37% of those imports would be affected.

The Commission also recommended sanctions against National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Brussels had floated similar measures in August 2024, but failed to secure unanimous backing. Unanimity is required for sanctions to pass, while trade measures need only a qualified majority—though diplomats warn even that threshold could be difficult to reach.

“Every member state agrees the situation in Gaza is unsustainable. The war must end,” Kallas emphasized.

The EU proposal comes as Israel steps up its offensive in Gaza. On Tuesday, Israeli forces launched heavy air and ground strikes shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Jerusalem and reaffirmed Washington’s “full support” for Netanyahu. Witnesses described the assault as “intense and relentless,” destroying at least three homes and leaving residents trapped under rubble.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared Gaza was “in flames,” vowing that the Israel Defense Forces would continue striking Hamas until hostages are freed and the group is defeated.

Bank of America Sounds the Alarm: Global Stocks Are Overvalued

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The latest global fund manager survey from Bank of America (BofA) points to renewed optimism in markets, though accompanied by a clear warning: a record 58% of respondents now see global equities as overvalued, slightly higher than August’s 57%.

By contrast, only 10% believe bond markets are trading above fair value.

The report highlights the most bullish sentiment since February, with cash levels at lows, equity allocations at seven-month highs, and rising confidence in global growth. BofA’s composite measure of sentiment—combining cash balances, equity positioning, and growth expectations—climbed to 5.4 points from 4.5 in August, its strongest reading in seven months. Growth expectations jumped to 25%, reversing last month’s gloom when a net 41% anticipated a slowdown.

Fund Managers Track Inflation, Dollar Weakness, and Fed Policy

Managers point to optimism stemming from the end of trade frictions, the beginning of interest rate cuts, and a rebound in bond yields. Still, risks remain front of mind: 26% cite a second inflation wave as the top “tail risk,” while 24% fear the Federal Reserve could lose independence, triggering a weaker dollar. Concerns that trade wars might tip the global economy into recession have fallen sharply, with only 12% naming it as the biggest risk, compared to 29% in August.

The survey also shows a widening gap between short-term rate expectations and inflation outlooks. Just 6% expect higher policy rates, in line with the six-month average, but the share anticipating higher inflation has surged to 49% in 2025, from just 9% in September 2024. Meanwhile, a net 23% expect higher long-term yields—the highest proportion since August 2022.

Portfolio Shifts Reflect Growing Risk Appetite

On the currency front, 38% of respondents say they are increasing hedges against a weaker dollar—the highest level since June—while those leaving currency hedges unchanged dropped to 35%, the lowest this year.

Asset allocation in September reflected stronger appetite for equities, with a tilt toward healthcare, telecoms, and consumer discretionary. Fund managers trimmed exposure to utilities, energy, and UK and EU equities. Relative to historical trends, positioning remains overweight in equities, emerging markets, telecoms, and banks, while energy, the U.S. dollar, REITs, and cash are underweight. Notably, 39% of respondents reported keeping gold allocations near 0%, signaling the precious metal is not currently viewed as a priority safe haven.

Energy Shock: Oil Jumps After Ukraine Attacks

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Oil markets turned volatile on Tuesday, with prices climbing as traders assessed the fallout from intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and growing threats of tougher Western sanctions.

Brent crude for November delivery rose 1.53% to $68.47 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October delivery jumped 1.93% to $64.52. The move reflects mounting fears that Russia’s energy exports—vital to global supply chains—could face major disruptions.

Moscow reported that it had shot down 221 Ukrainian drones in one of the largest assaults since the start of its full-scale offensive. Among the reported targets was Primorsk port, Russia’s most critical hub for crude shipments to Europe, along with one of the country’s largest refineries. Analysts warn that if damage is confirmed, global markets could lose a meaningful share of Russian supply, adding fresh volatility to an already fragile energy landscape.

[[USOIL-graph]]

At the same time, geopolitical risks are shifting beyond the Middle East. The U.S. is pushing for broader action, with President Donald Trump vowing to impose harsher penalties on Moscow if NATO allies stop buying Russian oil. He also suggested that member nations consider raising tariffs on China as a way to weaken Beijing’s financial support for Russia.

The heightened tensions underscore how fragile global energy security has become, with traders now pricing in a wider geopolitical risk premium that could extend well into the final quarter of 2025.

Wall Street Ends Winning Streak as Fed Kicks Off Key Meetings

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

New York stocks pulled back from record levels on Tuesday, September 16, as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting—one that former President Trump publicly weighed in on earlier in the day.

“POWELL MUST CUT RATES—NOW, AND BY MORE THAN HE PLANNED,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform Tuesday morning, arguing that such a move would lift the housing market, which has shown signs of weakness for months.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% to 45,758.27 points; the S&P 500 edged down 0.1% to 6,607.02; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% to 22,333.96.

[[SPX-graph]]

U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations in August

Retail sales in the U.S. rose more strongly than expected in August, driven in part by e-commerce demand, even as concerns linger over a weakening labor market heading into the final weeks of the third quarter.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in the world’s largest economy climbed 0.6%, matching July’s upwardly revised growth and beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.2% increase, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. Retail sales primarily reflect goods spending and are not adjusted for inflation.

The Fed kicked off its two-day meeting Tuesday and is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The decision will be accompanied by updated economic projections, with many investors betting on three cuts before year-end.

Trade Talks Between the U.S. and China

Risk appetite also improved on renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks taking place in Madrid.

On Monday, Trump posted that the “big trade meeting in Europe… went VERY WELL!” He added that an agreement had also been reached on a “certain” company that young Americans wanted saved, referring to TikTok.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a framework agreement had been reached for U.S. ownership of TikTok. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Friday to finalize the details.

Corporate Highlights on Wall Street

  • Ford fell 0.6% after announcing plans to cut up to 1,000 jobs at its electric vehicle plant in Cologne, Germany, citing weak demand.
  • Google slipped 0.2% after revealing plans to invest £5 billion ($6.8 billion) in the U.K. ahead of President Trump’s state visit, which is expected to feature several trade and collaboration agreements.
  • Oracle rose 1.5% following reports from CBS News that it is part of a consortium that would allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. if a U.S.-China framework agreement is finalized.

Bitcoin Soars Back to $116K as Fed Decision Looms

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Cryptocurrencies traded with a bullish tone on Tuesday, September 16, as investors anxiously await the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 1.3% over the past 24 hours to $116,500, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) slipped 0.2%, dipping below $4,500. Across the altcoin space, momentum was broadly positive, with BNB up 3.6%, Solana gaining 2.4%, and XRP advancing 1.4%. TRON was the exception, edging down 0.3%.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Nerves Ahead of the Fed

Markets are bracing for what is widely expected to be a rate cut by the Fed, though analysts caution that history shows such decisions don’t always translate into immediate stock market gains. “It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Wednesday, but historical patterns do not guarantee that this will result in short-term gains for equity indices.

In theory, a gold bull market should support Bitcoin in the medium term, as BTC tends to lag the precious metal by roughly three months.

Traditional Markets

Unlike the upbeat start to the week, Wall Street slipped on Tuesday. The pullback came even as major tech names continued to show strength, with investors awaiting the outcome of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

In Europe, stocks corrected sharply. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.22%, Germany’s DAX lost 1.79%, and France’s CAC dropped 1%. Investors are closely watching France after the resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou, a development that could bring political uncertainty in the coming days.

In Asia, trading was mixed: Shanghai’s Composite Index edged up 0.04%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.03%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.32%.

Trump Loses Legal Fight to Remove Fed Official Lisa Cook

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Trump administration suffered another legal setback in its clash with the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rejected President Donald Trump’s request to immediately dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring she will participate in this Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on monetary policy.

“Given these unique circumstances and the strong likelihood that Cook will prevail, at least on her due process claim, the government’s request for relief is rightly denied,” wrote Circuit Judge Brad Garcia in the ruling. The decision was backed by two of the three judges on the panel, with Trump-appointed Judge Gregory Katsas dissenting, according to The Hill.

Mortgage Fraud Allegations

Trump had announced Cook’s dismissal late last month after she was accused of misrepresenting two properties in Michigan and Georgia as primary residences just weeks apart in 2021, and improperly classifying a third property as a “second home.”

Last week, a federal judge had already issued a temporary order blocking the dismissal, ruling that the administration’s allegations did not meet the legal threshold for removal under the Federal Reserve Act. The court also found that the way the firing was carried out may have violated Cook’s constitutional due process rights.

A Power Struggle with the Fed

The dispute underscores Trump’s ongoing battle with the Fed, which he has repeatedly criticized for not cutting interest rates fast enough to stimulate the economy. With this decision, Cook will cast her vote in the upcoming FOMC meeting on interest-rate cuts.

Trump already has two close allies on the Fed Board—Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both appointed during his first term. He also recently installed Stephen Miran, a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to temporarily fill a vacant seat through January.

Still, the FOMC’s decision ultimately rests with its 12 voting members: the Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed, and a rotating group of regional Fed presidents.