Euro Under Pressure as Dollar Nears Two-Month High

Posted on October 8, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading at 1.1659, down by 0.4% for the day. The euro has now fallen for three consecutive sessions, moving closer to the lower end of its recent trading range, which is around 1.1600.

The pair remains up around 6 percentage points year-over-year despite this downturn, though it has not changed significantly over the past month.

The main factors contributing to the euro’s decline are domestic challenges in Europe and a recent surge in the US dollar, driven by safe-haven flows amid increasing political risks in the US.

Political instability in France has intensified following the resignation of newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, just after he formed his cabinet.

This resignation has exacerbated coalition instability and facilitated gains by far-right parties. Meanwhile, Germany’s economic output has dropped to a three-month low, and France’s manufacturing activity has seen its most significant decline since May 2020, raising renewed concerns about governance within the Eurozone.

The dollar nearly reached a two-month high, as concerns about fiscal and economic issues affected the currencies of its Group 10 peers across the Asia Pacific and Europe. The Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.2 percent, nearing its highest level since early August.

Traders in Asia reported that hedge funds were purchasing more bearish options against the euro and yen, contributing to this rise.

In recent days, the US currency has rebounded after dropping to its lowest level in over two years in September. This recovery has been fueled by various unfavorable events abroad, which have overshadowed the negative effects of the US government shutdown.

Political unrest in France has weakened the euro, while the yen has declined amid rumors that Japan’s likely new leader may favor slower interest rate increases and more fiscal expansion.

The dollar gauge has risen nearly 1% since the end of September, although it declined by 7.5% year-to-date. Contributing factors to this decline throughout most of 2023 include the Federal Reserve’s easing policies, a reduction in US exceptionalism, and the growing appeal of gold as a safe-haven investment.

Negative effects are also anticipated from the US government shutdown. The three most recent instances—2013, early 2018, and late 2018 into 2019—saw a decline in the gauge during and immediately following the deadlock. All of this is raising concerns about the dollar’s ability to recover steadily over the upcoming months.

EUR/USD : Euro Climbs to Four-Year Peak, $1.2 Within Range

Posted on September 16, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The euro pushed closer to its highest level in four years as investors braced for this week’s interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would solidify its divergent path from the European Central Bank. The common currency gained up to 0.3 percent on Tuesday, reaching $1.1791, its highest level since July 3.

It has the best nine-month performance on record, gaining about 14% in 2025. Options indicate that a break above July’s high of $1.1829 would be the strongest level since September 2021 and could pave the way for a run at the highly anticipated level of $1.20.

Demand is being bolstered by expectations that the ECB won’t lower rates any further as the Fed is perceived to be ready to begin a loosening cycle. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates by a total of 25 basis points in 2025, which is making the euro more appealing.

The demand for options that allow the purchase of the Euro is increasing steadily. This trend is reflected in one-week risk reversals, which serve as a gauge of market sentiment and positioning, particularly since the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that it will halt further easing.

Supporting this observation is data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which shows that more than two-thirds of Euro-dollar options traded on Monday were bullish bets, with significant interest in strike prices above $1.20.

Foreign exchange traders, who prefer to remain anonymous as they are not authorized to speak publicly, noted that hedge funds that previously pursued bullish exposure through complex strategies are now shifting toward simpler bets on Euro gains. This change suggests a growing conviction among these traders regarding the Euro’s potential for appreciation.

Euro Plunges to Biggest Daily Loss Against Dollar Since May

Posted on July 28, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The greenback appreciated against the euro as investors seem to be welcoming a relaxation of Donald Trump’s trade war. A Euro was worth $1.16, a 1.7 percent decline. The worst daily loss since May.

The Euro fell after a brief spike when trading resumed following the weekend break, when Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached an agreement on the framework.

The dollar has fallen 9 percent against the euro since the year began, and it is now trading at $1.16. In a broader sense, the DXY dollar index, which compares the performance of the US dollar to a group of major currencies, is down 8 percent for the entire year 2025.

There are numerous reasons for the dollar’s decline, but they are all connected, either directly or indirectly, to the policies of the Trump administration. The outlook for US growth has gotten worse.

The Fed has been hesitant to lower interest rates because officials have stated that they want to assess the effect of tariffs on inflation before making any additional rate cuts. However, President Donald Trump has frequently criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower rates, which has strained relations between the Fed and the White House.

Investors will want to know if the dollar’s strength will last because many economists believe that tariffs, which are essentially taxes on US consumers and businesses, will slow economic growth in the world’s largest economy

The demand for the US dollar would decline as a result. Throughout 2025, the dollar has declined, with a euro now purchasing 13 cents more than it did on January 1.

Dollar Sinks 3-1/2-year low against Euro on U.S Fed Stability

Posted on June 26, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The dollar fell to a new 3-1/2-year low against the euro amid concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s future independence, which eroded confidence in the country’s monetary policy.

President Donald Trump considered replacing and announcing Powell’s successor by September or October to weaken Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position. He added, “The action would cast doubt on the possible deterioration of Fed independence and possibly damage credibility.”

Trump called Powell “terrible” on Wednesday for not cutting interest rates more aggressively, and the Fed Chair told the Senate that policy needed to remain cautious because the President’s tariff plans posed an inflation risk. A week earlier, the probability of a rate cut at the July Fed meeting was only 12%.

JPMorgan warned that tariffs would increase inflation and slow US economic growth, raising the risk of a recession by 40%. In their report, JPMorgan analysts stated, “We expect higher US tariff rates, and the risk of additional negative shocks is elevated. Our baseline scenario includes the conclusion of a phase of uncertainty because of these developments.”

Markets are pricing 64 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from about 46 basis points last Friday. The euro rose 0.2 percent to hit $1.1687, its highest since October 2021, leading to an overall decline in the dollar.

The targets for the following charts were $1.1692 and $1.1909. On the yen, the dollar decreased 0.2 percent to 144.89, and the dollar index fell to 97.491, its lowest since early 2022. Additionally, Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies resurface as his trade deal deadline of July 9 approaches.

U.S dollar stands firm, Fed leaves interest rates unchanged

Posted on June 19, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The dollar remained stable as investors considered Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on inflation; however, sentiment remained weak due to concerns about potential US involvement in a wider Middle East conflict.

The Fed held rates steady in a move that was widely anticipated. While not all policymakers agreed that rate cuts were necessary, they are still expected to lower rates by half a percentage point this year. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs trickle down to consumers, and Powell predicted that inflation in goods prices would increase during the summer.

The dollar index, which compares the greenback’s strength to six other currencies, rose 0.8 percent for the week, reaching 98.957, its highest level since late February. As the Israel-Iran conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday, investors’ attention remained on developments in the Middle East.

Concerns about possible US involvement increased as Trump left everyone wondering if the US would join Israel in bombarding Iranian nuclear sites.

Powell stated at a press conference on Wednesday that “the tariff’s cost must ultimately be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer.” He added, “We are aware of that since companies say so.

Powell’s remarks, which drew further criticism from Trump, illustrate the challenges policymakers face in managing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical risks. This creates concerns among investors regarding the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

Traders expect at least two rate cuts this year, although analysts are uncertain about the starting point. The Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank are set to announce their policies later today.

Anglo American Share Price Drops as Voting Rights Shift Results in Target Cut—Breakdown or Rebound?

Posted on June 18, 2025June 27, 2025 by Skerdian Meta

Despite significant cost reductions and a historic platinum demerger, Anglo American’s shares fell precipitously last week as market mood shifted to caution. Continue reading “Anglo American Share Price Drops as Voting Rights Shift Results in Target Cut—Breakdown or Rebound?” →

UK inflation rate soften in May but above Bank of England Target

Posted on June 18, 2025June 18, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

U.K. inflation remained above the Bank of England’s medium-term target ahead of its policy-setting meeting later this week, despite a slight annual cooling in May. Although it decreased slightly from the 3 percent rise in May, annual consumer price inflation was still higher than in the U.K.

The BOE’s medium-term goal is 2 percent. The monthly rate increased by 0.2 percent, reversing the 1.2 percent increase observed in March. Analysts had predicted the CPI would rise by 0.3 percent annually and 0.2 percent monthly.

With the annual rate at 3.5 percent, down from 3.8 percent the previous month, the core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased by 0.2 percent monthly. Increased employer expenses, such as higher minimum wages and National Insurance premiums, contributed to April’s higher figure, but these effects should eventually fade.

The Bank of England survey released late last week showed that while short-term expectations decreased, the British public’s expectations for inflation over the medium term remained at their highest level in several years. According to the survey, inflation expectations in five years were at 3 to 0.6 percent in May, unchanged from February’s reading, which was the highest since November 2019.

Inflation expectations for the next year fell from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent, while those for the following year remained at 3.2 percent, the highest level since November 2022. After lowering its key base rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent at the beginning of May, the Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at its policy-setting meeting on Thursday.

U.S dollar Loses more Weight

Posted on April 17, 2025April 17, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The greenback appeared destined to record its fourth consecutive weekly decline as investors fled the United States because of tariffs despite recovering from a seven-month low against the yen.

Investor confidence in US economic growth and stability has been undermined by the US’s threat, imposition, and subsequent postponement of massive tariffs, which have caused the dollar to decline.

Among the G10 currencies, the safe-haven Swiss franc has gained the most, by 8%, since April 2. It is currently testing strong resistance at a decade-high of 0.81 at 0.8151 per dollar.

The euro and yen are not far behind with gains of about 5% on the dollar in just over two weeks. The euro eased marginally to $1.1373 in the morning in Asia, still poised for a fourth consecutive weekly increase despite the European Central Bank’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut later in the day.

When Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s economy minister, stated that foreign exchange had not been discussed at the trade talks in Washington, the dollar recovered above 142 yen after plunging to a seven-month low of 14.62 yen early in the Asia session.

The yen had appreciated going into the meetings, in the hopes that the nations would agree to strengthen

However, gains could be undone if no agreement is reached, as the long yen is at its highest since 1986. The dollar index was poised to record its fourth consecutive week of losses at 99.5 on the Thursday session trade.

Investor dump U.S dollar amid High Uncertainty

Posted on April 11, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The ongoing trade war has raised concerns about the US dollar’s ability to serve as a safe haven, leading to its continued decline against other major currencies on Friday. China responded to the most recent US tariffs of 145 percent by imposing 125 percent tariffs on American goods.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had already reached a new three-year low, continued its downward trend during Friday’s session, closing at approximately 99.7.

Investor confidence is generally waning amid a bleak outlook for the US economy. Investor anxiety over an imminent recession is reflected in the greenback. The dollar and Treasury remain vulnerable to future collapses and function as high-beta assets about risk sentiment.

Repairing the harm will necessitate a more extensive relaxation of Trump’s protectionist policies, even if the dollar recovers on good trade news.

The market reacted negatively when the Producer Price Index reported lower-than-expected results for April, and the University of Michigan sentiment index showed a decline, raising fears of deflation.

Labor market data presented a mixed picture, with unemployment claims slightly increasing to 223,000, while continuing claims decreased to 1.85 million. China’s confirmation of retaliatory tariffs on US imports, matching Washington’s hike of 125 percent, intensified concerns about a potential global recession.

Despite these economic worries, the dollar weakened over the past week. On April 1, just before Liberation Day, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was 4.17 percent, but on Friday, it rose to 4.46 percent. Typically, one would not expect the dollar to decline as Treasury yields increase.

U.S. dollar melts like Butter under hot Knife

Posted on April 9, 2025April 10, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

President Donald Trump’s tariffs hike against China on Wednesday caused the haven currency to plummet, escalating concerns about a prolonged trade war and a legal battle.

The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar’s strength against six major currencies, fell more than 40 basis points to 102.277 after reaching its lowest levels since September 2024.

In retaliation for China’s imposition of 34 percent retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. last week, President Trump signed an order on Tuesday imposing an additional 50 percent tariff on China, bringing the total amount of U.S. tariffs against the country to 104 percent.

The dollar was under pressure due to concerns about a potential U.S. economic downturn. The United States Central Bank might cut interest rates further.

After initially indicating 92 basis points of cuts this year, Fed fund futures surged Wednesday to suggest around 111 basis points.

Markets believe that the lack of quick alternatives for some Chinese goods makes the U.S. even more vulnerable to inflation and recession, contributing to the dollar’s struggles due to the additional tariffs on China.

Meanwhile, the negative impact of higher tariffs on Chinese exporters is diminishing,” ING analysts wrote in a note.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that markets might still be underestimating the likelihood of a full-blown U.S. recession following the steep increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. “We believe there is a high probability.