BofA Signals $55 Floor for Oil as Demand Holds Steady

Posted on October 18, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

BofA believes that the oil price floor is likely to form at $55 per barrel. The company is sticking to its Brent forecast of $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $64 per barrel in the first half of 2026, according to that report.

However, the report cautioned that “if U. S. -As OPEC+ production ramps up and trade tensions with China intensify, Brent may fall below $50 per barrel. The report states that market participants have been “sick worried about a crude oil glut for almost a year now.”

It also notes that the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil have dropped by roughly half from their 2022 peaks of $128 and $124 per barrel, respectively. “Of course, OPEC+’s agreement to raise quotas within the Group of 8 by roughly four million barrels per day over 18 months beginning in April 2025 is largely responsible for this year’s lower oil prices,” the report stated.

“China’s rapid strategic oil stockpiling and the impending surplus in 1H26 have caused Brent to have an odd term structure: tight in the front, loose in the back,” it added. “However, oil prices have dropped sharply in recent days as China reinstated some restrictions on rare earth elements (REE), the United States threatened China with new tariffs, and Iran threw down the gauntlet by turning on transponders to show the world where its oil is going,” the report continued.

The current long-term contango of almost $4 per barrel and the short-term oil backwardation structure are anomalies that will fail, according to BofA’s report. According to the report, “we estimate that only 5% of months over the past 20 years have had a contangoed long-term curve with a backwardated near-term curve.”.

The long-term contango of almost $4 per barrel today is a notable anomaly in contrast to the levels of short-term backwardation that we are currently witnessing, the report continued. “One of,” BofA stated in the report.

Gold beaten Blue Black, Expect $3,500 Pullback

Posted on October 18, 2025October 18, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

US President Donald Trump’s remark that triple-digit tariffs on China are unsustainable caused gold to plummet 2% after hitting a record high of $4,379 earlier Friday. Bullion prices are currently trading between $4,230 and $4,240 at the time of writing. Gold is weakened amid the greenback’s recovery.

The largest change, however, is in US Treasury yields, where the yield on the 10-year T-note has increased by almost three basis points.

US President Donald Trump stated that he expects to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea in a few weeks and that imposing higher threatened tariffs on China was not feasible and would probably worsen tensions between the two nations.

Precious metals dropped as a result of those remarks, which also improved risk appetite. However, the upward trend in gold is present around the $4,200 mark, as the ongoing pullback make room for buyers. Gold fell by almost 25% in a month after prices peaked in 2006, the last time we witnessed a similar situation.

Once more, those warning signs are flashing, indicating an impending peak, and our analysis suggests a possible decline to the $3,500 mark. Officials at the Federal Reserve (Fed) had stepped over the line.

Fed President Alberto Musalem remains fully committed to bringing inflation down to the 2 percent target. Fed Governor Christopher Waller earlier echoed Musalem’s remarks, while Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari stated that the economy is not slowing as much as we believe.

Silver, meanwhile, has formally ended its 45-year cup-and-handle configuration. Although prices may rise before falling back, markets expect that a move towards $200 is fair value in the long run, particularly as a decades-long period of manipulation comes to an end. Gold is currently ignoring the upper trendline resistance, indicating a potential blow-off top akin to 2006.

Solana’s $168 Dive Sends Crypto Sentiment into Fear Zone

Posted on October 11, 2025October 11, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Solana’s native token (SOL) has experienced a sharp decline, falling to approximately $168 in the early hours of the day. This reflects a drop of about 9–10 percent from the highs of $220–$230 reached the previous day, as part of a broader sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. The overall value of the cryptocurrency market has decreased by 1-2 percent, now sitting at $413 trillion.

Many long positions in SOL were liquidated in the last day, creating a vicious cycle of forced selling. Bitcoin is experiencing a sideways decline below $112K compounded by macroeconomic concerns, which could delay potential Solana ETF approvals. This situation has also adversely affected alternative cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum seeing a 2 percent decrease.

The cryptocurrency market is currently at its lowest level in almost six months, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100 percent tariff on China. In its Saturday update, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which assesses general market sentiment, dropped 37 points from a “Greed” reading of 64 on Friday to a “Fear” level of 27.

Bitcoin’s price briefly fell from $112,185 to $102,000 on the Binance perpetual futures pair. According to CoinGlass, long and short positions in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated to the tune of approximately $19.27 billion in the past day.

The last time the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached such a low level was on April 16, shortly after Bitcoin dropped to $77,000 due to escalating trade tensions. Before that, on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day halt to higher reciprocal tariffs, reverting the majority of nations to the standard 10 percent rate.

U.S Stocks Crash as Trump invokes Tariff Tsunami on China

Posted on October 10, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

President Donald Trump warned of a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, causing stocks on Wall Street to decline and raising concerns about the potential escalation of a trade war.

This increase in tensions between the world’s two largest economies coincided with fears of a bubble forming in the artificial intelligence sector, which has driven the recent bull market. As a result of Trump’s comments, the S&P 500 dropped by more than 1%. Investors sought safety in gold and bonds. Despite experiencing its strongest week since November, the dollar weakened, and oil prices also fell.

Trump claimed that recent “hostile” export restrictions gave him “no reason” to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Ahead of his scheduled meeting with Xi in Asia later this month, he posted on social media following a series of actions taken by the US and China to potentially disrupt the flow of materials and technology between the two nations.

The S&P 500 has soared since the tariff-related meltdown in April, driven by optimism about artificial intelligence and expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. With the index at one of its highest valuations in 25 years, there is little room for bad news.

Calls for a pause in the equity rally are increasing, even as trade tensions surge, as the S&P 500 has doubled in the past three years.

There are “flashing yellow lights” warning investors to slow down as the market nears its third anniversary of rebounding from the October 2022 lows. The market’s optimism has been so intense that investors are flocking to stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

Palantir’s Bubble Bursts: Why PLTR’s 211x (P/E) Multiple Screams ‘Sell Now

Posted on October 8, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Palantir Technologies ( PLTR) experienced significant growth, up 143% year-to-date and 363.11% over the past year.

The 52-week trading range is between $39 and $190. PLTR is now recognized alongside Nvidia (NVDA) as a leading AI performer, having risen 147% in 2025. Analysts credit this surge to a 78% increase in earnings and a 48% growth in quarterly revenue.

The company’s full-year revenue guidance has been raised to $4.14 to $4.15 billion, notably above the previous consensus of $3.89 billion.

PLTR’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is an exceptionally high 211, significantly above the S&P 500’s 23 and Nvidia’s 41.5.

Opinions among investors are mixed, while some technical indicators suggest potential pullbacks. Some view the stock as overbought, while others believe it is positioned for further AI-driven growth.

Palantir’s high valuation relies on consistent strong performance in a rapidly evolving AI market, and even minor missteps could lead to significant declines.

The enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio is approximately 150x, and the stock’s forward P/E ratio exceeds 200, far surpassing competitors like Snowflake (SNOW), which trades at about 10x sales, and even Nvidia at its peak.

Palantir reported revenue of $1 billion, representing 48%, with U.S. government revenue up 53% and commercial revenue up 93%.

However, as the company grows, it faces the “law of large numbers,” which may impact its growth trajectory.

Analysts predict that fiscal year 2025 revenue will be around $3.9 billion; however, a miss in Q3 guidance, due in early November, could greatly impact the stock price. Investors may not be satisfied with even a 50% growth rate; if actual results fall short of expectations, the stock could face a severe decline.

Euro Under Pressure as Dollar Nears Two-Month High

Posted on October 8, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading at 1.1659, down by 0.4% for the day. The euro has now fallen for three consecutive sessions, moving closer to the lower end of its recent trading range, which is around 1.1600.

The pair remains up around 6 percentage points year-over-year despite this downturn, though it has not changed significantly over the past month.

The main factors contributing to the euro’s decline are domestic challenges in Europe and a recent surge in the US dollar, driven by safe-haven flows amid increasing political risks in the US.

Political instability in France has intensified following the resignation of newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, just after he formed his cabinet.

This resignation has exacerbated coalition instability and facilitated gains by far-right parties. Meanwhile, Germany’s economic output has dropped to a three-month low, and France’s manufacturing activity has seen its most significant decline since May 2020, raising renewed concerns about governance within the Eurozone.

The dollar nearly reached a two-month high, as concerns about fiscal and economic issues affected the currencies of its Group 10 peers across the Asia Pacific and Europe. The Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.2 percent, nearing its highest level since early August.

Traders in Asia reported that hedge funds were purchasing more bearish options against the euro and yen, contributing to this rise.

In recent days, the US currency has rebounded after dropping to its lowest level in over two years in September. This recovery has been fueled by various unfavorable events abroad, which have overshadowed the negative effects of the US government shutdown.

Political unrest in France has weakened the euro, while the yen has declined amid rumors that Japan’s likely new leader may favor slower interest rate increases and more fiscal expansion.

The dollar gauge has risen nearly 1% since the end of September, although it declined by 7.5% year-to-date. Contributing factors to this decline throughout most of 2023 include the Federal Reserve’s easing policies, a reduction in US exceptionalism, and the growing appeal of gold as a safe-haven investment.

Negative effects are also anticipated from the US government shutdown. The three most recent instances—2013, early 2018, and late 2018 into 2019—saw a decline in the gauge during and immediately following the deadlock. All of this is raising concerns about the dollar’s ability to recover steadily over the upcoming months.

Warren Buffett Strikes Gold: Berkshire Snaps Up OxyChem for $9.7B in Mega-Chemical Play

Posted on October 2, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical division for approximately $9.7 billion in cash. The deal is the latest sign that Buffett appears to be returning to the market after years of avoiding large takeovers and gradually selling major holdings.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Occidental’s shares rose 1.4%, while Berkshire’s Class B stock declined 0.3%.

Buffett held nearly a record $344 billion in cash.
After purchasing rival CrownRock LP for $10.08 billion, Occidental, in which Berkshire owns about 27%, has announced nearly $4 billion in asset sales since early last year as part of its debt reduction efforts. The company stated its goal to lower its principal debt below $15 billion, using $6.55 billion of the proceeds from the sale of OxyChem.

OxyChem produces basic chemicals like sodium hydroxide and chlorine. Now that the prime sites are drilled, oil producers are working to boost efficiency to offset slowing output growth in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the largest US shale basin. This is when the proposed sale to Berkshire takes place.

Occidental is closing a significant chapter in its history. The company entered the chemicals industry decades ago, but in recent years, its annual sales in that division have declined. In August, Occidental reduced its full-year forecast for OxyChem’s pre-tax income by approximately 15%, to between $800 million and $900 million.

The company’s foray into the chemicals industry started decades ago, but its yearly sales in that segment have decreased. In August, Occidental lowered its full-year estimate for OxyChem’s pre-tax income by roughly 15%, to between $800 million and $900 million.

10-Year Treasury Bets Soar as Bond Traders Eye U.S Government Shutdown

Posted on October 1, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Bond traders are investing millions of dollars in options bets, believing that 10-year Treasuries are set for a rally that will drive yields to five-month lows.

Traders increased their bullish positions on Tuesday, just before a US government shutdown that could harm the economy and potentially reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the end of October.

This activity follows last week’s surge in bullish 10-year options trades, with one position valued at approximately $50 million betting on yields dropping to as low as 3.95% during that period. The yield would be near its lowest since the market turmoil caused by tariffs in April.

The US government shut down for the first time in nearly seven years after Congress missed a midnight funding deadline.

The White House budget office shut down the government except for essential functions and instructed agencies to begin implementing plans for a funding lapse. According to Citigroup Inc., long-term Treasuries tend to benefit from extended shutdowns. Strategists note that in 2018, 10-year yields fell by almost half a percentage point during a shutdown that lasted over a month. The rally started beforehand amid growing fears that a shutdown could trigger a recession

10-year Treasury yields barely moved, staying around 15 percent. President Donald Trump heightened the risk this time by threatening to fire “a lot” of federal employees if a shutdown occurs on Tuesday. Key economic data, including the highly anticipated monthly employment report due Friday, could also be delayed.

Gold Climbs to New Heights as US Shutdown Sparks Investor Caution

Posted on October 1, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Gold reached a new all-time high as the US government shutdown began, potentially threatening disruptions such as delays in the release of important economic data.

A fifth day of rallying saw the bullion asset rise to $3,875.5 an ounce. The White House issued its first directive in seven years after the failure of a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government closure in Washington, instructing government agencies to “execute their plans for an orderly shutdown.”

A suspension of federal operations risks adding pressure to the US dollar, while the release of key economic data, like Friday’s non-farm payroll figures, may be delayed. This year, gold has gained over 47 percent, positioning it for the largest annual increase since 1979.

Central bank purchases and rising holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds have supported the rally since the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates again. September saw the highest monthly ETF inflows in three years. Markets are also closely watching differing opinions among US officials regarding monetary policy

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that a weaker labor market might require additional rate cuts this year, but officials must remain cautious about potential sustained inflation.

Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advised caution when considering further interest rate cuts as long as inflation remains above target and the labor market stays largely balanced. Due to these concerns and ongoing worries about the central bank’s independence, gold continues to attract significant haven demand.

Last week, Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s lawyers urged the US Supreme Court to allow her to stay in her position while she challenges President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her.

Trump Wins Big: $24.5M YouTube Settlement After Jan 6 Account Ban

Posted on September 30, 2025September 30, 2025 by Olumide Adesina

Google agreed to settle Donald Trump’s claims that he was banned from his YouTube channel following the January scandal by paying $24.5 million.

A court filing claims that the riot at the US Capitol on June 6, 2021, was unlawful censorship. Trump’s lengthy legal battle against the suspension is now over, thanks to the settlement announced on Monday.

According to the filing, $22 million will be used to build a new ballroom in the White House, a project that is very important to Trump. Google chose not to respond. A few other plaintiffs who joined Trump in the lawsuit will receive the remaining funds.

Trump has been able to negotiate advantageous settlements with other tech and media behemoths that he accused of mistreating him since regaining the presidency in November, even though courts have consistently held that social media companies have a First Amendment right to moderate content as they see fit.

ABC News, owned by Walt Disney, agreed to pay $15 million to settle a lawsuit alleging that anchor George Stephanopoulos had defamed Trump in a statement regarding a lawsuit against the Trump presidential foundation or museum.

Meta Platforms Inc. agreed to pay a total of $25 million, which includes $22 million for a Trump library, to settle Trump’s lawsuit regarding his Facebook ban following the 2020 election defeat and the attack on the Capitol by a group of his supporters. Trump and Twitter’s legal battle over its Jan. 6 bans in February.

Details of a settlement were not disclosed in court filings. X, the name Elon Musk gave the platform after purchasing it in 2022, reportedly agreed to pay roughly $10 million to settle the president’s claims.