Day: November 2, 2023

USD/CHF Resumes Uptrend Despite Threats From SNB’s Jordan

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Since reversing from lows around 0.8550s in July, this forex pair has been bullish, which continued until the beginning of October, when the price reversed down at approximately 09250 as the conflict in the Middle East erupted. This recovery has been fueled in large part by a favorable gain in US bond rates, which has maintained the USD bullish, although the CHF has benefited from the safe haven status since early October. Continue reading “USD/CHF Resumes Uptrend Despite Threats From SNB’s Jordan” →

Gold and Crude Oil Stage a Bounce Off Support

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Since the Israel-Hamas war erupted earlier in October, Gold and Oil have undoubtedly been the most impacted assets. They continued to increase but turned lower late last month as the conflict didn’t seem to be escalating. Gold retreated back down to $1,970 following the break above $2,000. It is presently trading at $1,985 after falling to $,980 where sellers met the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart. Continue reading “Gold and Crude Oil Stage a Bounce Off Support” →

Buying the Retreat in USD/JPY as the USD Starts to Reverse Again

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

USD/JPY surged higher after the Bank of Japan failed to impress markets with a decisive move earlier this week, but retreated after the FED also did the same. Although it is reversing back up now after dipping just below 150.

The USD turned bearish yesterday after the FED refrained from hinting on another rate hike and continued to slip lower today as well. Short-term Treasury rates were declining, helping to drag the USD down. However, markets have not slowed, with the S&P opening with a gap higher and continuing to approach the session high, up 1.5%. Continue reading “Buying the Retreat in USD/JPY as the USD Starts to Reverse Again” →

$80 Within Reach in WTI Oil As Sentiment Improves

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday, for the majority of the day, West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Oil bids were on the back foot as the US Dollar (USD) found strong bids across the board initially, but then the decline continued even as the USD turned bearish in the US session, lowering energy prices. Meanwhile, global economic data continues to disappoint, delaying market expectations for increased Crude Oil demand as growth in Europe and China continues to fall behind market estimates.

Crude Oil began October in a great way, but it ended down at the bottom almost where it started. Following the Middle East tensions, WTI Oil opened at $80 last month and climbed to $89.90 before failing to reach the key round mark of $90 and reversing significantly lower. yesterday the price fell below $81, so we are back where we started before the conflict in Gaza started.

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil has erased all of the gains made since the outset of the Israel-Hamas war, indicating that the market is beginning to look beyond the conflict in the absence of a further escalation with Iran. The break below the major support at the $83 level is noteworthy, raising the possibility of a further decline into the $78 level, which contains the previous swing low. Yesterday the EIA crude Oil inventories were released and they pushed the price further down after showing yet another increase. Continue reading “$80 Within Reach in WTI Oil As Sentiment Improves” →

US Labour Market Continues to Remain Tight, Keeping the USD in Favour

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The US labour sector has been the strongest one during these hard times, being one of the reasons the FED has been hawkish, so employment reports have been in center stage. Yesterday we had two employment reports, with the ADP being released first. It showed an increase but missed expectations, although that’s not a very important report.

The JOLTS job openings report is released on Tuesdays usually but it was issued on a Wednesday this month, following the ADP private sector employment report and only a few hours before the FED’s monetary policy statement. After slowly dropping from 10.3 million to 8.9 million between April and July, job opportunities increased significantly to 9.6 million in August. Continue reading “US Labour Market Continues to Remain Tight, Keeping the USD in Favour” →

Forex Signals Brief November 2: Will the GBP Dive After the BOE Meeting?

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the European and Asian sessions were quiet, as traders were waiting for the data from the US and the FOMC meeting later in the day. We did have the Chinese Caixin and the UK PMI manufacturing reports for October, which showed that the activity in this sector is falling deeper in contraction, but the action was slow.

The US session was quite busy with economic data and the FED decision. Overall, Powell did not attempt to increase the chances of a December rate hike. The outcomes was bumpy for markets, but the US currency eventually dropped despite two positive jobs reports, Treasury yields fell to 4.70 lows, and shares rose. The Australian dollar was a significant winner as it sensed a move away from global tightening, as well as new easing and expenditure in China.

The Euro and the GBP were eventually turbulent as European rates declined. Both currencies turned bearish but had been saved by widespread USD selling after the soft ISM reading which showed that this sector fell deeper in contraction. The Yen also reversed part of yesterday’s massive surge, with the USD/JPY losing around 100 pips from the top. The biggest changes were in equities and bonds, indicating that some respite is on the way. Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief November 2: Will the GBP Dive After the BOE Meeting?” →

EUR/USD Sees Uptick Amid FOMC Aftermath and Mixed Economic Data

Posted on by Arslan Butt

During Thursday’s early Asian trading session, the [[EUR/USD]] pair experienced a notable ascent, surpassing the 1.0580 mark. This upward trajectory was primarily attributed to the US Dollar’s diminished strength following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The major currency pair is currently positioned around 1.0597, marking a 0.26% increase for the day.

The FOMC, as anticipated, maintained the federal funds rate at a steady 5.25–5.50% on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his press address, emphasized the need for a persistent rise in long-end yields, driven by higher-term premiums, to exert an influence on monetary policy. Powell acknowledged the current policy’s restrictive nature and hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes, albeit without apparent enthusiasm. Post-meeting, the Greenback witnessed a decline, with market sentiment suggesting the culmination of the rate hike cycle.

Continue reading “EUR/USD Sees Uptick Amid FOMC Aftermath and Mixed Economic Data” →

Gold Price Analysis: Key Factors Influencing XAU/USD Dynamics and Technical Outlook

Posted on by Arslan Butt

In the Asian trading session on Thursday, [[Gold]] price (XAU/USD) experienced a slight uptrend, yet failed to consistently surpass the significant $2,000 benchmark. The prevailing positive risk sentiment is identified as the primary constraint for the metal’s upward movement. Nonetheless, the commodity remains positioned above the recent low of approximately $1,970-1,969, suggesting caution for those anticipating a sharp decline.

Continue reading “Gold Price Analysis: Key Factors Influencing XAU/USD Dynamics and Technical Outlook” →