Nasdaq Ends 1.5% Down on Higher JOLTS and ME Tensions

Posted on October 1, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Market movements today were driven by geopolitical tensions rather than economic data, which sent most stocks lower, with Nasdaq ending 1.50% down. An Iranian missile strike on Israel led to a decline in risk assets and a surge in safe havens. However, crude oil prices benefited from the incident as markets feared potential damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure following Israel’s warning of retaliation.

US stock markets ended up mostly in red today

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European Economic News Preview: Eurozone Flash Inflation, Final Factory PMI Due

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Flash inflation and final factory Purchasing Managers’ survey results from the euro area are the major reports due on Tuesday.

At 3.15 am ET, Spain’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ survey results are due. Economists forecast the index to fall to 50.2 in September from 50.5 in the previous month.

At 3.45 am ET, manufacturing PMI data is due from Italy. The indicator is seen at 49.0 in September, down from 49.4 in the previous month.

Thereafter, final PMI survey results are due from France and Germany at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 4.00 am ET, Eurozone final factory PMI survey data is due. The initial estimate showed that the index dropped to 44.8 in September from 45.8 in the prior month.

At 4.30 am ET, UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI survey data is due. The final reading is seen at 51.5 in September, unchanged from the flash estimate.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is slated to release euro area final inflation data for September. Economists forecast inflation to ease to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent in August.

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EchoStar Stock Hit On Deal To Sell Dish TV To DirecTV

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Shares of EchoStar Corp. dropped around 12 percent on Monday’s regular trading and more than 1 percent in the extended trading on the Nasdaq after the firm agreed to sell its video distribution business Dish TV and digital business Sling TV to rival DirecTV for a nominal price of $1, plus the assumption of DISH DBS’s net debt.

The combination of DIRECTV and DISH would create the largest pay-TV provider, benefiting U.S. video consumers with more flexibility and better value in the highly competitive video industry, which is at present dominated by streaming services of large tech companies and programmers.

With the move, EchoStar expects to get greater financial flexibility, and to be able to focus on launching a nationwide 5G Open RAN wireless service to compete with major carriers. The deal will also strengthen EchoStar’s Boost Mobile brand as the fourth major facilities-based carrier in the U.S. Additionally, EchoStar plans to leverage its satellite assets to develop innovative direct-to-device solutions.

The sale would reduce EchoStar’s total consolidated debt by $11.7 billion, and decrease its refinancing needs by around $6.7 billion through 2026.

The combined DirecTV – DISH video company is expected to have increased scale to incentivize programmers to allow DirecTV to deliver smaller packages at lower price points.

EchoStar noted that combined, DirecTV and DISH have collectively lost 63 percent of their satellite customers since 2016. Traditional pay TV penetration in U.S. households is now less than 50 percent.

Bill Morrow, Chief Executive Officer, DirecTV, said, “DirecTV operates in a highly competitive video distribution industry. With greater scale, we expect a combined DirecTV and DISH will be better able to work with programmers to realize our vision for the future of TV, which is to aggregate, curate, and distribute content tailored to customers’ interests, and to be better positioned to realize operating efficiencies while creating value for customers through additional investment.”

DirecTV estimates that the combination has the potential to generate cost synergies of at least $1 billion per annum. These synergies are expected to be achieved by the third anniversary of closing, assuming the closing is in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In a relative deal, TPG Inc., which holds the minority interest in DirecTV, agreed to acquire from telecom major AT&T the remaining 70 percent stake in DirecTV that it does not already own. AT&T expects to receive approximately $7.6 billion in cash payments from DirecTV and the buyer through 2029. Completion of the deal is not contingent on DirecTV’s acquisition of DISH.

On the Nasdaq, EchoStar closed Monday’s trading at $24.82, down 11.5 percent. In the after hours trading, the shares fell 1.3 percent further.

Eurozone Manufacturing Activity Falls Deeper Into Contraction

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Eurozone manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction in September on falling output, orders, employment and procurement activity, final data compiled by S&P Global showed on Tuesday.

The HCOB factory Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 45.0 in September from 45.8 in August. The flash reading was 44.8.

The latest score was the lowest in the year-to-date period and was also below average seen across the current 27-month downturn.

Production continued to fall in September and at the fastest rate in the year-to-date period. Likewise, new orders decreased at the fastest pace since December. Sales performances were also adversely affected by global conditions.

There was broad-based retrenchment in factories. Purchasing activity shrank at the quickest rate since last December, while inventories were depleted more rapidly.
Further, staffing capacity continued to be cut and the job shedding was the most pronounced since October 2012, excluding pandemic-hit months.

With the level of incoming new orders shrinking further, manufacturers made additional inroads to their backlogs of work in September.

On the price front, input costs dropped for the first time since May. Prices of goods leaving the factory gate also decreased in September.

Looking ahead, eurozone manufacturers remained slightly optimistic on balance, with those forecasting growth over the next 12 months still outnumbering those predicting contraction.

National survey showed that Spain was the strongest performer with growth improving to a four-month high. Meanwhile, Germany recorded its most pronounced worsening of factory conditions for twelve months.

“While handling the global manufacturing downturn surprisingly well, Spain just does not have enough weight to lift the rest of the eurozone with it,” Hamburg Commercial Bank Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia said.

“The worsening industrial slump in Germany, for example, is too big for Spain’s momentum in September to make much of a difference,” de la Rubia added.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a 12-month low in September. The index registered 40.6, down from 42.4 in August but came in above the flash score of 40.3.

France’s manufacturing economy also continued to be blighted by subdued demand conditions with further deterioration in new orders leading output, purchasing, inventories and employment all to fall further in September. The factory PMI posted 44.6 compared to 43.9 in August. The initial score was 44.0.

The downturn in the Italian manufacturing sector deepened in September as output, new orders and pre-production inventories declined at faster rates. The HCOB factory PMI slid to 48.3 in September from 49.4 in August.

Spain’s manufacturing activity posted strong growth in September on solid increases in output and new orders. The headline HCOB PMI rose to 53.0 from 50.5 in August. Manufacturing activity continued to grow for the eighth straight month.

Cryptos Muted As Powell Rules Out Any Preset Course

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Cryptocurrencies weakened over the past 24 hours as markets digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s forward guidance on monetary policy. Jerome Powell, in his speech on Monday at the Annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics made it clear that monetary policy would move over time toward a more neutral stance. He however clarified that the Fed was not on any preset course.

The Fed Chair also reiterated that with the risks to achieving the employment and inflation goals roughly in balance, the Fed would continue to make decisions meeting by meeting.

Jerome Powell also attributed the recent rate cut to a growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of the policy stance, strength in the labor market could be maintained with moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.

The 6-currency Dollar Index has increased to 101.00 versus 100.76 on Monday and 100.42 on Friday.

Overall crypto market capitalization is currently at $2.26 trillion versus $2.27 trillion a day earlier.

Bitcoin edged down 0.01 percent overnight to trade at $64,076.02, around 13 percent below the all-time high. BTC has gained 0.60 percent in the past week while holding on to gains of more than 51 percent in 2024. The original cryptocurrency traded between $64,316.45 and $62,873.62 in the past 24 hours.

Data from Farside Investors on Bitcoin Spot ETF products in the U.S. showed a net inflow of 61 million on Monday as compared with $494 million on Friday.

Ethereum added 0.37 percent in the past 24 hours to trade at $2,643.63, around 46 percent below the previous peak. Weekly losses are close to 0.42 percent. Gains in 2024 have increased to close to 16 percent. Ether traded between $2,657.62 and $2,576.98 in the past 24 hours.

Data from Farside Investors on Ethereum Spot ETF products in the U.S. showed a net outflow of $1 million on Monday versus a net inflow of $58.7 million on Friday.

4th ranked BNB (BNB) added 0.33 percent overnight, limiting weekly losses to 3.75 percent at its current trading price of $580.87.

5th ranked Solana (SOL) added 0.6 percent overnight, lifting weekly gains to 6.2 percent. SOL is currently trading at $156.98.

6th ranked XRP (XRP) has shed 3.1 percent overnight to trade at $0.6292. Amidst weekly gains of 6.9 percent, the cryptocurrency issued by Ripple Labs has rallied 2.3 percent on a year-to-date basis.

8th ranked Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped 2.5 percent overnight to trade at $0.1185.

9th ranked Toncoin (TON) edged up 0.2 percent overnight. TON is currently trading at $5.82.

10th ranked TRON (TRX) added 0.83 percent overnight and 3 percent in the past week. TRX is currently changing hands at $0.1567.

69th ranked Popcat (POPCAT) and 90th ranked EigenLayer (EIGEN) topped with overnight gains of more than 10.5 percent. 50th ranked Bonk (BONK) and 37th ranked dogwifhat (WIF) followed with overnight gains of more than 8 percent.

91st ranked Neo (NEO) is the greatest laggard, shedding close to 7 percent overnight. 94th ranked Ethena (ENA) slipped 5.3 percent followed by 83rd ranked Conflux (CFX) that has declined 4.6 percent in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, amidst relief at the Fed’s preferred PCE-data revealing a softening in inflation, digital asset investment products recorded the third consecutive week of inflows. The CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly report showed inflows of $1.2 billion during the week ended September 27 as compared with inflows of $321 million during the week ended September 21. Year-to-date flows have increased to $23.7 billion. According to the report, Bitcoin topped flows by asset, iShares ETF topped flows by provider and United States topped flows by country during the past week.
Bitcoin-based products dominated with inflows of $1.1 billion. After five straight weeks of outflows, Ethereum-based products recorded inflows of $86.9 million. Multi-asset products received inflows of $65 million followed by Short Bitcoin products that got inflows of $8.8 million. Solana-based products however recorded outflows of $4.8 million.

More than 80 percent of the cumulative AUM of $92.7 billion is attributed to Bitcoin products that account for an AUM of $74.6 billion. Bitcoin’s dominance of crypto market is much lower, at around 56 percent. AUM of Ethereum products stood at $11.0 billion. Multi-asset portfolios command assets under management of $4.5 billion. An AUM of $1.3 billion is attributed to Solana-based products and $608 million to Binance-based products.

The provider-wise analysis of flows inter alia shows inflows of $594 million to iShares ETF followed by $269 million to Ark 21Shares. Fidelity ETF recorded inflows of $206 million. Bitwise ETF also recorded inflows of $83 million. Outflows of $117 million were recorded from Grayscale Investments.

iShares ETF tops with a cumulative AUM of $25.1 billion implying a share of 27 percent. Though year-to-date outflows are more than $19.5 billion, Grayscale Investments still accounts for an AUM of $21.2 billion, which is 22.9 percent of the cumulative AUM of $92.7 billion. Fidelity commands an AUM of $11.9 billion, followed by ARK 21Shares and 21Shares that have both mobilized assets under management to the tune of $3.3 billion. The top 3 viz iShares, Grayscale Investments and Fidelity account for more than 62.7 percent of the total AUM.

The country-wise analysis shows weekly inflows of $1.2 billion to United States. Switzerland followed with inflows of $84 million. Germany has recorded outflows of more than $20 million followed by Sweden and Brazil that have recorded outflows of $3 million each.

Of the cumulative AUM of $92.7 billion, $70 billion or 75.5 percent is in United States. Switzerland follows with AUM of more than $5.1 billion whereas Canada accounts for an AUM of $4.5 billion. Germany accounts for an AUM of $3.9 billion followed by Sweden with an AUM of $3.0 billion.

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Yen Falls After Ishiba's Surprise Win

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

The Japanese yen weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, as markets reacted to incoming PM Shigeru Ishiba’s support for the Bank of Japan’s moves to raise interest rates from their near-zero level and also backed other policies, such as possibly raising corporate taxes.

With a majority of votes in both chambers of parliament, Ishiba, the head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was formally named prime minister on Tuesday. The market has been keenly observing the implementation of his economic initiatives.

Markets also reacted positively to remarks by U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested the central bank will continue to lower interest rates but stressed the downward path for rates is not on a preset course.

Powell’s remarks partly offset optimism the Fed will continue to lower interest rates aggressively in the coming months.

The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for November 6-7, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 65.3 percent chance the central bank will lower rates by 25 basis points and a 34.7 percent chance of another 50-basis point rate cut.

In economic news, the unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent in August, the ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday. That was below expectations for 2.6 percent and down from 2.7 percent in July. The jobs-to-applicant ratio was 1.23, which missed forecasts for 1.24 – which would have been unchanged from the previous month. The anticipation rate ticked up to 63.6 percent from 63.5 percent a month earlier.

The latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed that the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in September, and at a faster rate, with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.7. That’s down from 49.8 in August and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment showed large manufacturing in Japan was steady in the third quarter of 2024, with a diffusion index score of +13. That beat forecasts for a reading of +12 and was unchanged from three months ago. The outlook came in at +14, matching expectations and steady from the previous quarter.

The large non-manufacturers index came in at +34, beating forecasts for +32 and up from +33. The outlook was +28, down from +34 three months earlier. The medium manufacturing index was at +8 with an outlook of +9, while the medium non-manufacturing index was at +23 with an outlook of +16. The small manufacturing index was at 0, while the small non-manufacturing index was at +14.

In the Asian trading today, the yen fell to 4-day lows of 160.91 against the euro, 193.37 against the pound and 170.71 against the Swiss franc, from yesterday’s closing quotes of 159.91, 192.02 and 169.82, respectively. If the yen extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 167.00 against the euro, 198.00 against the pound and 174.00 against the franc.

Against the U.S., Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars, the yen slipped to 4-day lows of 144.54, 100.11, 91.50 and 106.89 from Monday’s closing quotes of 143.62, 99.27, 91.17 and 106.18, respectively. The yen is likely to find support around 149.00 against the greenback, 102.00 against the aussie, 93.00 against the kiwi and 110.00 against the loonie.

Looking ahead, manufacturing PMI reports from U.S. and Canada for September and U.S. construction spending data for August are slated for release in the New York session.

Eurozone Inflation Falls Below 2% Target

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Eurozone inflation fell below the 2 percent target for the first time in more than three years in September, signaling faster interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

The harmonized index of consumer prices posted an annual increase of 1.8 percent compared to a 2.2 percent rise in August, flash data from Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Inflation fell below 2 percent for the first time since June 2021. Economists had forecast inflation to moderate to 1.9 percent.

At the same time, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, core inflation eased only marginally to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent in the prior month.

Data showed that the annual fall in energy prices doubled to 6.0 percent from 3.0 percent. Non-energy industrial goods prices logged a steady growth of 0.4 percent.

Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose at a slightly faster pace of 2.4 percent following a 2.3 percent gain. Services cost gained 4.0 percent after rising 4.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, the HICP was down 0.1 percent.

With growth under pressure now, it seems that the door is open for the ECB to move faster, ING economist Bert Colijn said.

“While it does not seem like a done deal, it does bring the October meeting into play for a possible step up in easing,” the economist added.

Capital Economics’ economist Franziska Palmas said it now looks very likely that, after a temporary rebound in the headline rate due to base effects in the next three months, inflation will stay below target in the coming year.

Accordingly, the economist expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points in October to 3.25 percent.

In June, the ECB had cut its rates for the first time since 2019. After opting for a pause in July, the bank again reduced its key rates by 25 basis points in September.

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Markets Weak As Fed In No Haste To Ease Rates

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Market sentiment remains weak as Chair Jerome Powell on Monday indicated that the Fed was not on any preset course in respect of monetary policy. Reiterating its view that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals were roughly in balance, the Fed has clarified that decisions would continue to be made meeting by meeting. The Fed’s commitment to carefully assess incoming data has added weight to the major economic data from the U.S. due during the week including PMI, JOLTs Job Openings and the monthly non-farm payrolls report.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool that tracks the expectations of interest rate traders, the likelihood of a half-point cut in the next Fed review in November has fallen to 40 percent from 58 percent a week earlier.

Wall Street Futures are trading in negative territory. European benchmarks are trading mostly higher amidst inflation in the Euro Area falling below the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Asian markets finished trading on a mixed note.

Dollar Index has firmed up in response to Fed Chair’s comments. Bond yields eased across regions. Prospect of additional supply dragged down crude oil prices. Gold rebounded after two sessions of losses. Top-ranked cryptocurrencies are trading on a mixed note.

Here is a snapshot of the major world markets at this hour.

Stock Indexes:

DJIA (US30) at 42,217.70, down 0.27%
S&P 500 (US500) at 5,759.00, down 0.06%
Germany’s DAX at 19,391.55, up 0.26%
U.K.’s FTSE 100 at 8,270.03, up 0.40%
France’s CAC 40 at 7,624.72, down 0.14%
Euro Stoxx 50 at 5,007.25, up 0.14%
Japan’s Nikkei 225 at 38,650.50, up 1.97%
Australia’s S&P ASX 200 at 8,208.90, down 0.74%
China’s Shanghai Composite at 3,336.50, up 8.06% (Sep 30)
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng at 21,133.68, up 2.43% (Sep 30)

Currencies:

EUR/USD at 1.1092, down 0.38%
GBP/USD at 1.3317, down 0.40%
USD/JPY at 143.72, up 0.07%
AUD/USD at 0.6905, down 0.11%
USD/CAD at 1.3533, up 0.06%
Dollar Index at 101.09, up 0.31%

Ten-Year Govt Bond Yields:

U.S. at 3.742%, down 1.78%
Germany at 2.0505%, down 3.87%
France at 2.812%, down 3.83%
U.K. at 3.9785%, down 0.76%
Japan at 0.850%, down 0.58%

Commodities:

Brent Oil Futures (Dec) at $71.01, down 0.96%.
Crude Oil WTI Futures (Nov) at $67.40, down 1.13%.
Gold Futures (Dec) at $2,670.80, up 0.43%.

Cryptocurrencies:

Bitcoin at $64,067.78, down 0.02%
Ethereum at $2,636.38, up 0.95%
BNB at $578.81, up 0.55%
Solana at $157.00, up 1.54%
XRP at $0.6307, down 0.61%.

McCormick Lifts FY24 Earnings View After Strong Q3 Results; Stock Up

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

Shares of McCormick & Co. Inc. were gaining around 5 percent in the pre-market activity on the NYSE after the seasonings and spices maker increased its fiscal 2024 outlook for earnings after reporting higher third-quarter earnings, above market. The company further reaffirmed its sales and operating profit growth outlook for the year on a constant currency basis.

Brendan Foley, President and CEO, stated, “This quarter we reached a meaningful milestone by delivering total global positive volume growth, reflecting improved trends across both segments, and we expect this momentum to continue into the fourth quarter. …Our year to date results coupled with our growth plans reinforce our confidence in achieving the mid to high-end of our projected sales growth for 2024. Our business fundamentals are strong, and we expect to continue to deliver profitable growth.”

FY24 Outlook

For fiscal year 2024, McCormick now expects earnings per share to be in the range of $2.81 to $2.86, compared to $2.52 of earnings per share in 2023. Adjusted earnings per share are now projected to be in the range of $2.85 to $2.90, compared to $2.70 a year ago, which represents an expected increase of 5 percent to 7 percent.

The company previously projected earnings per share on a reported basis to be in the range of $2.76 to $2.81, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $2.85.

Analysts on average expect the company to earn $2.86 per share, according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts’ estimates typically exclude special items.

Further, operating income in 2024 is now expected to grow by 9 percent to 11 percent from $963 million in 2023, and adjusted operating income is expected to increase 4 percent to 6 percent.

The previous view for operating income was to grow by 8 percent to 10 percent, and adjusted operating income to increase 3 percent to 5 percent, or in constant currency 4 percent to 6 percent.

In 2024, McCormick expects sales to range between a decline of 1 percent to an increase of 1 percent compared to 2023, with minimal impact from currency. The Company expects a favorable impact from the prior year’s pricing actions.

Previously, the company expected sales to range between a decline of 2 percent to flat compared to 2023, or between a decline of 1 percent to an increase of 1 percent on a constant currency basis.

The company added that its strategic decisions in 2023 to discontinue low margin business and divest a small canning business will impact volume growth in 2024.

Q3 Results

McCormick’s profit for its third quarter increased from the same period last year and beat the Street estimates.

The company’s earnings totaled $223.1 million or $0.83 per share, compared to $170.1 million or $0.63 per share in last year’s third quarter. Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.67 per share.

The company’s sales for the quarter fell 0.3 percent to $1.679 billion from $1.684 billion last year as volume growth of 1 percent was partially offset by price.

In Consumer segment, the company delivered solid volume growth, despite a more challenging macro environment in China.

The company plans to host its Investor Day on October 22 in Hunt Valley, Maryland.

Ikn pre-market activity on the NYSE, McCormick shares were trading at $86.00, up 4.50 percent.

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Euro Slides As Eurozone Inflation Dips Below 2% Target, Signaling ECB Rate Cut

Posted on October 1, 2024 by RTT Staff Writer

The euro weakened against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday, after Eurozone inflation fell below the 2 percent target for the first time in more than three years in September, signaling faster interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

The harmonized index of consumer prices posted an annual increase of 1.8 percent compared to a 2.2 percent rise in August, flash data from Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Inflation fell below 2 percent for the first time since June 2021. Economists had forecast inflation to moderate to 1.9 percent.

On a monthly basis, the HICP was down 0.1 percent.

Accordingly, the economist expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points in October to 3.25 percent.

In June, the ECB had cut its rates for the first time since 2019. After opting for a pause in July, the bank again reduced its key rates by 25 basis points in September.

A speech by European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos along with the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings data may garner investor attention as the day progresses.

In the European trading today, the euro fell to an 8-day low of 1.1084 against the U.S. dollar, from an early high of 1.1145. The next possible downside target for the euro is seen around the 1.09 region.

Against the pound, the NZ dollar and the Swiss franc, the euro edged down to 0.8320, 1.7542 and 0.9386 from early highs of 0.8337, 1.7623 and 0.9435, respectively. If the euro extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.81 against the pound, 1.74 against the kiwi and 0.92 against the franc.

Moving away from an early 4-day high of 160.91 against the yen, the euro edged down to 159.30. On the downside, 154.00 is seen as the next support level for the euro.

Against the Australia and the Canadian dollars, the euro edged slipped to nearly a 3-month low of 1.6051 and a 5-day low of 1.4994 from early highs of 1.6115 and 1.5072, respectively. The euro may test support around 1.59 against the aussie and 1.48 against the loonie.

Looking ahead, manufacturing PMI reports from U.S. and Canada for September and U.S. construction spending data for August are slated for release in the New York session.