Author: Arslan Butt

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

EUR/USD Pressured as US NFP Hits 130K and Unemployment Drops to 4.3%

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The EUR/USD pair reversed sharply on Wednesday after strong US jobs data surprised the market. Earlier, the pair had risen to an intraday high of 1.1926 on weak US retail numbers, but the strong employment report boosted the US dollar.

NFP Data: A Hawkish Surprise for the Fed

The US Department of Labor’s January 2026 report, delayed by a short government shutdown, showed the economy is stronger than many economists expected.

Key Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
Non-Farm Employment Change 130K 66K – 70K 50K (Revised)
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%

Why this matters:

  • Job Growth: The 130,000 new jobs nearly doubled the forecast of 70,000.
  • Unemployment: The rate fell to 4.3%, showing a tighter job market and making it less likely the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively in March.
  • Wage Inflation: Wages rose 0.4% for the month, above the 0.3% estimate, which means inflation is still a challenge for policymakers.

Market Reaction: Dollar Rebounds, Euro Retreats

Before the jobs report, the Euro traded near 1.1910 because US retail sales were flat at $735 billion in December. But the strong jobs data caused the US Dollar Index (DXY) to bounce as traders covered short positions.

Now, markets are rethinking the chances of a rate cut in March. Weak retail sales had made a cut seem likely, but today’s jobs data suggests the Fed may keep rates higher for longer to control inflation.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Pullback to 1.1860

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades near 1.1864 after failing to break through the 1.1940 to 1.1965 resistance area.

  • Immediate Support: The pair is testing short-term support at 1.1836, helped by the 50-period moving average at 1.1827.
  • The Bullish Defense: If the price stays above 1.1780, which is the 100-period moving average, the overall upward trend from mid-January is still in place.
  • Resistance Targets: If the price moves above 1.1946, it could head toward the key 1.2000 level and the recent high of 1.2044.
  • Bearish Risk: If the price closes below 1.1767, it would show the jobs data has changed the trend and could lead to a test of the 1.1728 support.

Trade Idea: Given the current volatility, it may be wise to wait for the price to retest the 1.1830 to 1.1800 support area. If buyers hold this level, going long with a target of 1.1995 and a stop below 1.1765 could offer a good risk-to-reward setup.

Institutional Pivot: Goldman Sachs Discloses $2.36B Crypto Portfolio with Bold Ethereum Weighting

Posted on by Arslan Butt

One notable detail is Goldman’s large investment in Ethereum (ETH). While most institutions focus on Bitcoin, Goldman reported $1.1 billion in Bitcoin and almost as much—$1.0 billion—in Ethereum.

This nearly equal split is a big change from the usual marMoonrockket-cap approach. Analysts like Simon Dedic from  Capital called it “significantly bullish” for Ethereum, saying Goldman sees ETH as more than just a speculative asset—it’s a key utility holding.

ETF-First Strategy: Institutional-Grade Exposure

Goldman Sachs avoids the risks of holding crypto directly by using only ETFs. This lets the bank trade crypto as regulated securities and stay within current compliance rules.

Key ETF Positions Disclosed:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Primarily held through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with additional positions in Fidelity and Grayscale.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Concentrated in the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Fidelity Ethereum Fund.
  • New Entries: The bank also added $153 million in XRP and $108 million in Solana (SOL) ETFs, making these assets part of Goldman’s holdings for the first time.

Hedging Against Volatility: The “Put” Protection

Although Goldman has a large spot position, the filing also shows a careful hedging strategy. The bank holds over $600 million in put options, which gain value if prices drop, and a smaller amount in call options.

This delta-neutral approach suggests much of the $2.36 billion portfolio is used for market-making or arbitrage, not just betting on price increases. This protection matters, since Bitcoin prices have dropped nearly 45% from their late-2025 highs.

Market Sentiment: A “Maturing” Asset Class

Crypto makes up only 0.33% of Goldman’s $811 billion portfolio, but the 15% increase during a price drop is seen as a sign of confidence.

With the CLARITY Act moving through the U.S. Senate, Goldman’s growing presence puts it at the forefront of the next phase of institutional crypto adoption.

UAE Legal Alert: Al Ain Court Orders Crypto Broker to Repay $124,000 Over Risk Breach

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The Al Ain Civil Court has ordered a trading broker to pay back $124,361 to a young investor. This February 11, 2026 ruling marks a significant move toward holding brokers accountable in the UAE’s cryptocurrency sector, especially when they ignore agreed risk management rules.

The Dispute: High-Leverage Trading Versus Agreed Limits

The case involved a $135,501 USDT (Tether) portfolio managed by a broker with a 30% profit-sharing agreement. The parties had a written agreement through messaging apps, setting a 1 to 5% daily return target and a strict 8% stop-loss. However, the broker did not follow these terms.

A court-appointed expert reviewed the case and found that the broker:

  • Ignored Stop-Loss Limits: Continued trading deep into losing positions, effectively “wiping out” the account.
  • Excessive Margin Usage: Leveraged the account well beyond the deposited capital, amplifying the downside.
  • High-Fee Churning: Employed execution methods that generated over $46,000 in platform fees in just a few days, a practice often viewed as “churning” to maximize commission at the client’s expense.

https://gulfnews.com/uae/crime/uae-court-orders-broker-to-repay-124000-after-crypto-losses-1.500439161

Restitution and “Moral Damages”: A New Precedent

The Civil, Commercial and Administrative Court found that the broker’s ‘unprofessional conduct’ and breach of contract meant the investor should get back all lost funds, plus extra penalties.

Award Item Amount (USD/AED)
Principal Restitution $124,361
Moral Damages Dh10,000
Legal Costs Full Coverage by Defendant

The award for moral damages is important because it shows the court recognized the emotional and psychological harm caused by losing life savings due to reckless management.

Key Takeaways for UAE Crypto Investors

This ruling fits with the UAE’s wider effort, led by VARA in Dubai and the SCA, to make the virtual asset sector more professional.

  • Enforceability of Digital Contracts: UAE courts are now more often accepting WhatsApp and email records as valid ‘commencement of proof’ in business disputes.
  • Expert Forensic Audits: Courts now use experts to review blockchain transactions, making it harder for brokers to hide behind the complexity of crypto markets.
  • Broker Liability: Giving your wallet keys to a broker does not protect them from responsibility. They are still legally required to follow the agreed risk limits and duty of care.

Legal Note: This case is a strong warning to unlicensed account managers in the UAE. Under the 2025 UAE Crypto Law, managing digital assets without a license can now result in serious criminal charges as well as civil penalties.

Crypto Policy Update: Ripple CLO Teases “Compromise” as White House Pushes for March 1 Deadline

Posted on by Arslan Butt

A major step forward in U.S. cryptocurrency regulation could be near. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, posted on X Tuesday that a recent White House meeting was “highly constructive.” He suggested that a long-awaited bipartisan compromise on market structure may finally be within reach.

The “Tuesday Breakthrough”: Banks Present Written Terms

Negotiations on February 10, 2026, moved from general discussion to actual policy drafting. For the first time, major banking groups shared a formal “prohibition principle” document that details the regulatory limits they are prepared to accept.

Key Concessions and Discussion Points:

  • Stablecoin Yields: Banks and crypto companies are working to find a compromise on whether non-bank stablecoin issuers can offer interest or rewards. This issue was a major obstacle that previously delayed the GENIUS Act.
  • Custody Exemptions: Talks included ways for traditional banks to provide crypto rewards and custody services without the strict capital requirements that the SEC had previously set, such as the now-rescinded SAB 121.
  • Operational Rules: The group discussed clearer definitions for what counts as “permissible account activity” for crypto-focused firms that want access to the federal payment system.

The March 1 Ultimatum

The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have set a firm March 1 deadline to finish the legislative text. Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee this week, Bessent stressed the need for “market structure and clarity” by spring to avoid more deposit volatility and keep the U.S. competitive.

“We want to be the best regulatory regime for digital assets… to spark innovation,” Bessent stated, reiterating the administration’s goal of bringing crypto activity back onshore.

Market Sentiment: CLARITY Act Odds Dip to 54%

Even though industry leaders like Alderoty are optimistic, many in the market are still unsure. According to Polymarket, the chance of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has dropped to 54%, down from almost 70% in late January.

Indicator Status Market Impact
Polymarket Odds 54% (Down) Reflects fears of election-year gridlock.
Senate Ag Committee Passed Bipartisan “Digital Commodity Infrastructure Act” advanced.
Senate Banking Committee Pending Focus remains on the CLARITY Act markup in late February.
Industry Sentiment Neutral-Bullish Leaders see the White House meetings as a net positive.

Why the CLARITY Act Matters

If passed, the CLARITY Act would settle the “jurisdictional tug-of-war” by giving the CFTC control over most digital asset spot markets, while the SEC would keep authority over assets that fit updated security definitions.

This new framework is expected to bring in a large amount of institutional investment. It would give major banks like Goldman Sachs (which recently reported $2.3 billion in crypto holdings) the clear rules they need for full integration.

USD/JPY Price News: Yen Surges to Weekly Highs as “Takaichi Rally” Shakes Forex Markets

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The USD/JPY exchange rate is facing strong selling pressure this Wednesday, dropping below 153.40 as the Japanese Yen benefits from clearer domestic politics and a weaker U.S. dollar. The pair is down almost 0.9% today, adding to a sharp 3% decline since Monday’s post-election high.

The “Takaichi Mandate”: From Deficit Fears to Fiscal Reality

The main reason for the Yen’s recent strength is Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s big election win on February 8. At first, markets worried her “reflationist” views could cause a debt crisis, but now the focus has shifted to stable policies.

  • The Two-Thirds Supermajority: The LDP’s historic win with 316 seats gives Takaichi strong support for her “Three Pillars” agenda: relief, defense, and growth. She can now move forward without needing to make coalition deals.

  • Fiscal Responsibility: The Takaichi Cabinet has stressed reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio and taking a careful approach to currency monitoring. These comments have eased worries about excessive bond issuance.

  • A “Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact” Move: After six days of losses before the election, traders are now closing short-yen positions as political uncertainty fades. This is a classic example of “sell the rumor, buy the fact.”

Central Bank Divergence: BoJ Eyes 1.00% as Fed Softens

The long-standing “yield gap” that has hurt the Yen is starting to close. As of February 11, the policy outlooks for Japan and the U.S. are moving in different directions:

  1. Bank of Japan (BoJ): The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% in December and may increase them again to 1.00% as soon as March. Board member Kazuyuki Masu recently said that “timely and appropriate” hikes are needed to control inflation caused by imports.

  2. The Federal Reserve: After weaker U.S. retail sales and job data, swap markets now see a 15-20% chance of a rate cut in March. This “dovish tilt” is making the Dollar less attractive for carry trades.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast: 152.00 Support in the Crosshairs

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 4-hour chart, falling below the 155.50 support level has weakened the short-term bullish trend.

Key Levels to Monitor:

  • Bearish Target ($152.12): This is the recent swing low. If the price closes below this level for the day, it could quickly drop toward the key 150.00 level.

  • Dynamic Resistance ($154.55): What was once support is now resistance. The price needs to move back above this level to stop the current downward trend.

  • The “Line in the Sand” ($160.00): The $160.00 level is seen as a key threshold. Although the pair is well below this point, ongoing warnings from the Finance Ministry continue to discourage those betting on the Dollar.

High-Stakes Catalyst: Today’s NFP Double-Feature

The next move for USD/JPY depends on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which comes out today at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The NFP Scenario: If the NFP report is weak (below 50,000) or if there are big downward changes to 2025 data, USD/JPY could fall quickly toward 151.28. On the other hand, a strong report (200,000 or more) could trigger a sharp rebound toward 156.00.

Oil Price News: WTI and Brent Rise as Iran Tensions Eclipse Massive US Inventory Build

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Crude oil prices are moving up today, with WTI reaching $64.50 and Brent close to $69.35. The market is caught between concerns about a possible surplus and increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Heat: Carriers and Tankers in Focus

The primary driver behind today’s 0.9% gain is the escalating tension between Washington and Tehran. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts in Oman, President Donald Trump signaled on Tuesday that he is considering deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.

  • Sanctions Surge: Just hours after the latest nuclear talks ended, the US State Department announced new sanctions on 15 companies and 14 ships connected to Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet.”
  • Strait of Hormuz Risk: A US advisory has warned commercial ships to stay out of Iranian waters, adding new risk to the market. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil.
  • Diplomatic Fragility: Iran called the talks a “good start,” but the US is still applying its “maximum pressure” strategy to limit Iran’s oil income. This keeps worries about supply disruptions in play.

The Inventory Shock: API Reports +13.4M Barrel Build

Limiting further price gains, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large increase in crude inventories of 13.4 million barrels for the week ending February 6.

If the official EIA data later today confirms it, this would be the biggest weekly increase since late 2023. Part of this rise is a rebound after Winter Storm Fern led to an 11.1 million barrel drop and disrupted production in the Permian Basin in late January.

Structural Bearishness: The 2026 Surplus Warning

Although recent news is supporting prices for now, the IEA’s February report gives a more cautious outlook for the year. The agency now predicts a surplus of almost 4 million barrels per day in 2026, which is about 4% of global demand.

Driver 2026 Forecast Market Impact
Global Demand +930,000 bpd Lower than previous years; hit by economic “stalls.”
Supply Growth +2.5 million bpd Driven by US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
OPEC+ Policy Paused hikes Production freeze extended through March to avoid a glut.
Inventory Buffer 433 million bbl+ Bloated balances provide a cushion against price spikes.

 

Technical Analysis: WTI Squeeze Nears Breakout

Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 2-hour chart, WTI at $64.34 is trading within a narrowing range. Prices are moving between a downward trendline from January highs and support at $63.00. If WTI rises above $65.51, it could trigger a short-covering rally up to $67.00. If WTI cannot break above $64.80 and the EIA report is negative, prices may fall back toward the 100-period moving average at $62.55.

Indian refiners are said to be shifting from Russian oil to Middle Eastern and West African types to help secure a trade deal with the US. This move is giving a local boost to mainstream oil prices.

Looking Ahead

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report comes out later today, and the IEA’s full report will follow tomorrow. These updates will help show whether the current price rally can last in an oversupplied market.

Silver Price Update: XAG/USD Rebounds Toward $83 as Market Eyes Sixth Deficit Year

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Silver (XAG/USD) is making a strong recovery this Wednesday, trading between $81.50 and $83.00 per ounce. After briefly topping $100 in January, prices are now settling above a new support level as speculation cools off.

The Deficit Driver: Why 2026 is a “Tight” Year

The latest Silver Institute report from February 10 shows that the silver market is heading into its sixth year of supply shortage. The expected 67 million ounce deficit in 2026 is mainly due to steady industrial demand that does not change much with price.

  • Solar and green technology are major drivers. Global solar PV capacity is expected to reach 665 to 700 GW this year. Even though manufacturers are using less silver per cell, solar still uses about 120 to 125 million ounces.
  • The growth in AI hardware is also boosting demand. Silver’s excellent conductivity is essential for high-speed processors and cooling systems in AI data centers.
  • On the supply side, mine production is only expected to grow by 1% to 820 million ounces. Since more than 70% of silver comes as a by-product from other metals, miners can’t quickly increase output even with high prices.

[[XAG/USD-graph]]

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls Target $87.75 Breakout

Looking at the 2-hour chart, XAG/USD is forming higher lows, supported by an upward trendline near $81.50.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Immediate resistance is at $83.98, which is the current ceiling. If prices break above this level, the next target is the 100-period moving average near $87.75.
  • The pivot point is $85.50. If the price closes above this level for the day, it would show that the correction since January has ended.
  • Critical support is between $79.00 and $80.00. This range has become a key area where institutional investors are buying on dips.
Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Macro Outlook: The “Warsh Shock” & Safe-Haven Demand

Markets are still reacting to Kevin Warsh being nominated as Federal Reserve Chair. His reputation for supporting a strong dollar led to an initial price drop, but silver is now gaining from wider concerns about traditional debt-based systems.

“The rapid stabilization around $75–$82 indicates that silver has completed its backtest from speculative frenzy to its industrial value bottom,” notes Jiayi Li, a global market researcher.

The Gold to Silver Ratio is near multi-year lows at 61 to 62, showing silver’s strength compared to gold. Analysts at Bank of America and Citi are very bullish, with some predicting prices could reach $120 to $150 in late 2026 if silver becomes even harder to find.

Trading Strategy for February 11

With prices staying in a tight range, a breakout looks likely. Most traders are looking to go long near the $81.50 support, setting close stop-losses below $75.50 and aiming for a move back to $93.00.

Gold Price News: XAU/USD Stabilizes Above $5,000 Ahead of High-Stakes US Jobs Report

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Gold (XAU/USD) is steady in early Wednesday trading, staying between $5,040 and $5,070 per ounce. After reaching record highs near $5,610 in January, gold is still recovering. Now, attention is on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which has become the main event this month after recent government delays.

The Macro Setup: A “Two-for-One” Jobs Report

Today’s 8:30 a.m. ET release is unusual. Because a partial federal government shutdown delayed the original schedule, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release both the January hiring data and the annual benchmark revisions for 2025 simultaneously.

 [[XAU/USD-graph]]

Current market consensus for the key metrics includes:

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: Expected +70K (Up from 50K in December)
  • Unemployment Rate: Forecast to hold steady at 4.4%
  • Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Projected at 0.3%

The benchmark revisions are the real wild card. Early estimates suggest the 2025 data could be revised down by 600,000 to 1,000,000 jobs, which might show the US labor market was weaker last year than first thought.

Why Gold is Defending the $5,000 Level

Even with a volatile start to 2026, gold is up almost 10% in the past month and an impressive 73% over the past year. Several key factors are supporting this new period of $5,000-plus prices:

  • Fed Pivot Bets: Weaker economic data, like flat retail sales, has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more supportive. A jobs report today that is weak enough to encourage rate cuts, but not so weak that it signals a recession, would be the best outcome for gold buyers.
  • Central Bank Appetite: Structural buying continues, led by China’s relentless accumulation streak. Analysts from UBS and JP Morgan maintain year-end targets between $5,900 and $6,300, citing de-dollarization as a primary driver.
  • Geopolitical Safe Haven: High-level diplomatic meetings are happening today, including one between Israeli PM Netanyahu and US President Trump. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support gold prices.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Key Levels to Watch

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 1-hour chart, gold is consolidating in a neutral to bullish pattern. The price is currently between support at $4,946 and resistance at $5,092.

  • The Bull Case: A sustained break above $5,092 would likely trigger a momentum-driven rally toward $5,183 and potentially $5,306.
  • The Bear Case: If the jobs data comes in surprisingly hot, gold could lose the $4,946 support level, exposing the ascending trendline at $4,811.

Pro Tip: Momentum has bounced back from oversold levels. The 50-hour and 100-hour moving averages are coming together near $4,980, which suggests buyers are defending this key price level.

Looking Ahead

While today’s NFP report is the main focus now, more volatility is likely. US CPI (inflation) data comes out this Friday and will help shape the Fed’s next interest rate decision.

Solana Struggles at $82 as 39% Monthly Decline Tests Critical Support Levels

Posted on by Arslan Butt

As of Wednesday, Solana [[SOL/USD]] is down 4.7% over the last day, trading at about $82. The cryptocurrency is still going through one of its most difficult times in recent months. Over the past month, the layer-1 blockchain token has dropped 39%, which has many wondering if the present support levels will hold or if more loss is in store.

Solana Struggles at $82 as 39% Monthly Decline Tests Critical Support Levels
Solana price analysis

SOL/USD Technical Setup Reveals Mixed Signals

Solana’s technical picture displays a wide range of intricate markers. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 27.02 indicates that a strong downtrend is still firmly in place, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 52.08, indicating that selling pressure has momentarily paused. Although some analysts point to histogram divergence that suggests possible momentum shifts, the MACD displays a bearish crossover that has not yet reversed.

Right now, Solana is consolidating in the $83–$87 region, which is thought to provide crucial short-term support. SOL has lost its last monthly support between $98 and $100, according to several analysts, and the price structure is still displaying lower highs and lower lows. Bearish control is reinforced by the fact that the cryptocurrency is currently trading considerably below both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages of $166.24 and $123.11, respectively.

But oversold indications are starting to appear. Despite the fact that purchasers have not yet made a firm move, the Money Flow Index’s close to extreme readings indicate that selling pressure may be waning.

Key Price Levels: $98-$108 Target for Bulls, $52 Risk for Bears

Analysts concur that any significant rebound in the future needs to retake the $98–$108 range. If SOL stabilizes above current levels, February projections indicate it may move inside this range, which represents both psychological resistance around $100 and previous support.

A prolonged rise above $108 might lead to a reevaluation of the overall trend. While annual predictions reach $203.12, indicating possible gains of 134% if longer-term recovery patterns emerge, quarterly forecasts point to $142.85, indicating a 64.8% recovery from present prices.

Targets will group around $78–$80, with deeper support close to $70, if the $85 area fails. According to more pessimistic monthly projections, SOL may test $52.30, which would indicate a substantial increase in downside risk should selling pick up speed.

[[SOL/USD-graph]]

 

Institutional Outflows Add Complexity

Additional pressure points are revealed by on-chain data. Analysts saw the estimated 72-hour departure of over 1 million SOL from centralized exchanges as stress-driven repositioning less than obvious accumulation. The second-largest net withdrawals ever recorded was from Solana-linked ETFs, totaling over $11.9 million.

Compared to historical averages, trading volume has decreased to $4.07 billion per day, indicating a decrease in trader confidence. Long-term selling pressure from larger holdings is seen in the On-Balance Volume, which is -114.69 billion.

Solana Foundation Focuses on Revenue-Driven Growth

Lily Liu, president of the Solana Foundation, is committed to the long-term goal despite price obstacles. Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Liu promoted “Internet Capital Markets,” contending that blockchains are more suited for tokenized, open financial markets than for wide-ranging web3 initiatives. She insisted that genuine network utilization must provide sustainable value for long-term holder opportunities, placing more emphasis on revenue-focused indicators than governance tokens.

Liu positioned Solana as neutral infrastructure for billions of internet users, highlighting Asia as the “core market” for cryptocurrency due to its Bitcoin beginnings and large user base.

Ethereum Holds $2,000 Support: Accumulation Zone or Just the First Low?

Posted on by Arslan Butt

With increasing technical pressure threatening to force the second-largest cryptocurrency into a protracted consolidation period, Ethereum [[ETH/USD]] is currently trading at about $2,000, down 4% over the last day. Analysts are comparing the current 31% year-to-date decline to past trends, which indicate that additional downward testing would be required before any long-term recovery.

Ethereum Holds $2,000 Support: Accumulation Zone or Just the First Low?
Ethereum price analysis

Historical Fractal Points to Multi-Month Consolidation

There are notable parallels between Ethereum’s 2021–2022 cycle and its current price behavior, according to market specialists. Fractal research suggests that rather than a clear market bottom, ETH’s recent decline below $1,736 is probably just the “first low” in a longer period of consolidation.

Before starting a steady upward trend in 2021, Ethereum oscillated for over a year between an initial low of about $1,730 and deeper support at $885. Using this paradigm in light of the current situation, analysts predict that ETH could fluctuate between $1,300 and $2,000 in the upcoming months, with possible tests towards $1,500 to $1,600 prior to establishing a stable basis.

On-Chain Data Maps Critical Support and Resistance Zones

Significant obstacles to upward movement are created by the strong overhead resistance at $2,822 (5.86% of ETH supply) and $3,119 (6.15%), according to Ethereum’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data. Significant demand clusters that indicate possible support zones below present levels can be seen at $1,881 (1.58 million ETH) and $1,237.

This perspective is supported by derivatives data. Vulnerability to seller pressure is indicated by the liquidation heat map, which displays $4-6 billion in cumulative long liquidations at danger between $1,455 and $1,700. But more than $12 billion in short liquidity is stacked up to $3,000, suggesting that once downside liquidations are absorbed, directional bias may move higher.

ETH/USD Near-Term Technical Setup Remains Bearish

Ethereum encounters immediate opposition on shorter timeframes at $2,040-$2,050, where a contracting triangle pattern has developed. Following a quick surge to $2,168, ETH had a correction below the 100-hour SMA. $2,065 and $2,120 are important resistance levels; a break over these might target $2,165–$2,280. With the hourly MACD in the bearish zone and the RSI below 50, technical indicators are still pessimistic.

$2,000 is the downside support, while $1,950 is the primary support. Declines toward $1,900 or $1,820 could be triggered by a break below $1,950.

Ambitious Price Targets Face Reality Check

It looks more difficult to meet Standard Chartered’s prediction of $7,500 by the end of 2026. It would take a 275% rise in less than ten months to reach this goal from present prices, requiring drastic changes like consistent inflows into Spot Ethereum ETFs and a notable improvement in the ETH/BTC ratio.

There are some encouraging indications despite the bearish technicals. According to CryptoQuant statistics, net outflows of more than 220,000 ETH caused exchange withdrawals to spike to all-time highs in October 2025. Last Thursday, Binance reported daily outflows of 158,000 ETH, indicating possible buildup. Furthermore, Ethereum’s stablecoin transaction volume has grown 200% in the last 18 months, despite ETH prices remaining 30% lower. Some analysts feel this discrepancy may lead to future repricing.

[[ETH/USD-graph]]

 

Ethereum Price Prediction: Extended Range-Bound Trading Expected

Technical and on-chain convergence suggest that Ethereum will probably be range-bound between $1,300 and $2,000 for a while. In order to establish a definitive bottom, the route of least resistance suggests retesting between $1,500 and $1,600. The probabilities have drastically decreased, but the $7,500 year-end targets are still mathematically achievable. If bulls recover $2,150, more realistic short-term goals include a gradual comeback toward $2,500–$3,000.

As Ethereum moves through its consolidation period, traders should brace themselves for ongoing volatility and possible downward tests. The crucial support level to keep an eye on is $1,950.