Bitcoin Bounces Back—Can MSTR Follow Suit and Rally 10%+ After Epic $19B Wipeout?

Bitcoin bounced above the $111K at the first trading session of the week.

MSTR will monitor Bitcoin’s recovery this week, but be prepared for a decline—trade tariffs are still a wild card. It is riskier than direct Bitcoin/ETFs because of leverage, but fundamentals support recovery (no forced sales; BTC scarcity intact). Hold for $200K BTC targets (4x MSTR upside) if you’re long; if not, wait for mNAV stabilization. Don’t ask for financial advice.

President Trump’s announcement of 100% more tariffs on China escalated trade tensions and caused a severe flash crash in Bitcoin on October 10-11.

Bitcoin fell from a peak of about $125,000 with a 14–17% drop in just a few hours. This resulted in the loss of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions across cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin has partially recovered to between $111,000 and $115,000, holding above a crucial support level of $110,000 but falling short of a full recovery.

Technical analysis indicates a sell as the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout zone ($107,000–$110,000) is retested and the RSI is close to 30 on daily charts, indicating oversold conditions.

Strategy formerly known as MicroStrategy had 640,250 BTC (about 1% of supply) was held in August 2025 at an average cost of $73,000, making it worth about $71 billion as of October 16 (down from $80 billion before the crash).

This amounts to unrealized gains of about $21 billion so far this year, but the October decline erased about $10 billion in market value for their holdings in a single week. Although its stock has somewhat decoupled from Bitcoin due to eroding premiums, the company’s Bitcoin yield has remained strong at 91 percent annualized since 2020, outpacing many tech peers. During the flash crash week (October 7–14), MSTR stock plummeted more than Bitcoin, plunging -18 percent and closing at $297 on October 11, the lowest since early 2024.

The market NAV premium, or mNAV, has decreased from 3.4x in November 2024 to 1.32x-1.6x at this time, indicating a decline in investor trust in the “leveraged BTC proxy” argument. It trades similarly to a pure ETF (no premium for growth) below 1x. ~1.5-2x is the beta to Bitcoin (MSTR drops more on).

Bullish Breakthrough – Trump Heir Spotlights XRP as SWIFT Slayer

The conversation shifted to the development of digital payments and how XRP is changing global banking systems, with the participation of Donald Trump Jr. and Bitboy.

XRP Eyes $5 Target Soon as Institutional Access Expands

The well-known cryptocurrency analyst CryptoSensei (@Crypt0Senseii) posted the Bitboy video on X, which described how XRP is tackling cross-border payments, one of the most enduring inefficiencies in international capital markets.

Armstrong made a stark analogy between XRP and the conventional SWIFT network, which serves as the foundation for the majority of international financial transactions, during the conversation. While acknowledging that the SWIFT system is still a “network of information,” he referred to Bitcoin and XRP as “networks of value.”.

Practically speaking, this distinction means that SWIFT only transmits transaction messages between banks; manual or delayed procedures are then used to move the money. XRP addresses the liquidity issue, improving the system’s overall speed and efficiency, while SWIFT transmits messages.

“The SWIFT system always has to come in on the back end and do all the work when something is happening on it,” he stated. Armstrong continued by highlighting the difficulties that many companies encounter when sending money abroad, citing manual verifications and time zones as the main reasons for settlement delays.

XRP aims to eliminate various obstacles in the international payment process. It is noteworthy that XRP transactions can be completed in just 30 seconds, while traditional international payments often take five to seven days to settle. Ripple’s mission to modernize global finance centers on this speed, along with reduced costs and the ability to bridge different currencies.

During my conversation with Armstrong, I acknowledged his explanations with brief responses. This discussion occurs at a time when digital assets are being addressed in the political arena. President Donald Trump has openly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies, stating that the digital economy is a leader in innovation. A closer look at XRP’s international payment system by Trump’s team may indicate a shift in how traditional political leaders view blockchain technology.

Historic Tie-Up: Ripple and AmEx Team Up to Redefine Cross-Border Finance with XRP

American Express and Ripple are collaborating to highlight how well-known financial institutions are adjusting to online, international payment systems. Ripple’s relationship with American Express predates the most recent wave of crypto-fintech collaborations by several years.

Crypto ETFs on the Fast Track: Ripple’s Institutional DeFi Push Fuels XRP Optimism

The researcher’s post was well received by the XRP community, which has long seen Ripple’s business alliances as proof of XRP’s ongoing significance in the financial industry.

Major financial firms like Visa, Wirecard, and American Express have been making significant investments in technology and partnering to improve international digital payment systems, as highlighted in the UK Fintech Week discussion. The speaker pointed out that these companies are working to enhance online platforms and give merchants the ability to transact more effectively in global marketplaces. American Express and Ripple’s partnership was cited as an illustration of how it was established.

Experts have demonstrated that American Express makes use of XRP, which is intended to enable real-time, cross-border transactions.

The partnership has improved international payments for corporate clients by enabling quicker and more transparent settlements between companies operating in various regions.

The announcement that Coinbase and American Express are collaborating to introduce a cryptocurrency credit card that offers Bitcoin rewards coincides with the renewed attention being paid to Ripple’s role. American Express’s announcement placed the company in line with the expanding trend of conventional payment companies launching consumer-focused digital asset products.

Ripple’s partnership with American Express, however, predates this development and represents an earlier stage of blockchain adoption in financial services, as SMQKE highlighted by sharing the video. Advocates of XRP take pride in this distinction, claiming that the digital asset is better than its rivals and has remained a steady presence at the enterprise level.

Ripple Price Prediction: The XRP Rebounds as Turmoil Fades — Can the Momentum Extend?

Despite a strong recovery from a worldwide selloff, Ripple’s XRP price is still restricted at $3 because of ongoing market volatility and regulatory uncertainty.
Continue reading “Ripple Price Prediction: The XRP Rebounds as Turmoil Fades — Can the Momentum Extend?”

ETH Can’t Grip $4K: BlackRock’s ETF Exit Signals Deeper Downtrend Ahead

Ethereum (ETH) price has sharply fallen below the $ 4,000 mark. Investors show caution following the October crash and ETF exits. The collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) did not recover to their pre-crash levels, despite bouncing back relatively quickly.

 

Ethereum (ETH), which lost 13 percent over three days, dropped below $ 3,700 yesterday. It briefly surged after hitting a local low, but bears kept ETH at $ 3,923. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is struggling to maintain its price above $105,000, a key threshold for short-term investor expectations.

US investors in spot Ethereum ETFs are pulling significant liquidity as market pessimism persists. While Franklin Templeton, 21 Shares, and Invesco products showed no changes, the six largest ETFs experienced withdrawals. Ethereum ETFs are underperforming; yesterday, BlackRock’s ETHA was the worst.

Market turbulence has negatively impacted Ethereum spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue tracker data, total net outflows across all funds amounted to $232.08. 08 million. BlackRock’s ETHA fund lost $146 million, while Grayscale’s ETHE and Fidelity’s FETH saw outflows of $30 million and $26 million, respectively, in a single day.

This resulted in the third most painful week in the past eight months and the fifth worst week for the Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF segment since its launch in July 2024. After a single-day loss of $367 million, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced even larger withdrawals, exceeding $500 million.

Selling pressure is rising as traders take profits following recent gains, evidenced by the taker sell dominance in the Spot Taker CVD data. This indicates a gradual transfer of tokens from short-term traders to more patient buyers. In addition, declining social metrics and rising NVT levels suggest Ethereum’s upward trend may soon face resistance. Specifically, if retail inflows decrease, the asset could struggle to maintain its current price range if selling pressure continues.

XRP’s Great Escape: Buyers Storm In as Ripple Fuels Jailbreak Rally

XRP has been in a difficult situation for a few weeks following a painful crash on October 10, which was nearly repeated a week later.  However, Ripple’s native token has gained some ground and is currently trading near $2.4, up 4% for the day. Santiment provided data indicating that the token’s long-term trends remain favorable as the number of mid- to large stakeholders continues to grow.

 

Specifically, the analytics resource reported that wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens reached a new all-time high of 317.5K. CoinGlass reports that, despite the price increase, the open interest in derivatives decreased by 526 percent to roughly $350 billion.

This countertrend suggests that even with a resurgence of buying pressure, traders may still exercise caution. After a week of consolidation, during which XRP repeatedly tested the $1 level, the latest price movement occurred. The recent spike indicates renewed interest in the token and places it among the day’s top gainers.

Conversely, the decline in open interest suggests that many derivatives market participants have not yet regained confidence. Active futures and perpetual contracts are measured by open interest; thus, a decrease in this indicator as the price rises often signals reduced speculative activity or traders liquidating older positions. Additionally, the market appears to be recovering from the heavy losses seen earlier.

Meanwhile, according to Ripple Van Winkle, most market participants have not noticed any significant development in XRP. His recent post and video analysis claim that XRP has duplicated a technical pattern identical to the one that induced its most recent 600 percent surge.

He suggested that XRP might soon enter a phase that will realign market dynamics while many traders focus on Bitcoin’s dominance and short-term volatility.

Ripple Van Winkle argued that the recent correction in major cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin’s steep decline from its recent highs, is part of a larger, engineered pattern.

He pointed to ongoing liquidations on Binance, claiming these are rerouting liquidity from Bitcoin into altcoins, particularly utility-driven assets like XRP, and liquidating leveraged positions. According to him, institutional money has historically shifted from Bitcoin at its peak into pro during previous cycles.

Beaten-Down Bitcoin Finds Footing at $105K

There have been outflows of over $1.2 billion from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds this week, but Charles Schwab reports increased interest in the products.

 

A negative week for Bitcoin-related asset and institutional investment products was capped on Friday by a total outflow of $366.6 million from the eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. According to SoSoValue, the largest withdrawal was from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which lost $268.6 million.

A small withdrawal also occurred from the Valkyrie ETF, Grayscale’s GBTC saw an outflow of $25 million, and Fidelity’s fund lost $67.2 million. On Friday, the others saw no flows. Despite a modest inflow on Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs experienced another negative day, with a weekly outflow of $1.22 billion. This happened when the underlying asset dropped from just over $115,000 on Monday to a four-month low of just below $104,000 on Friday, resulting in over $10,000 in withdrawals.

Ten of the last twelve Octobers have seen gains for Bitcoin, but this month defies that trend, dropping 6% so far, according to CoinGlass. Analysts remain optimistic that Uptober will resume, as previous gains often occur in the second half of the month, possibly spurred by expected rate cuts from the Fed.

The Associated Press reported on Friday that the write-off of bad loans to commercial customers has caused Wall Street to become increasingly concerned about the state of the country’s regional banks

The asset lost more than $5,000 in a few hours, sinking to a four-month low of $103,850 on Friday. Although it has since rebounded to trade around $107,000 on Saturday morning in Asia, it remains over 15% below its peak. Bitcoin is currently for sale. Be prepared for a potential bailout similar to 2023 if the current regional banking wobble in the US escalates into a crisis. And if you have extra money, go shopping,” Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of BitMEX, stated.

Ripple’s XRP Sinks to Oversold Lows But $2 Crash Imminent

XRP has declined by nearly 15% over the past week and 3% today, despite a sharp rise in exchange outflows. Deeper signals suggest that the latest buying surge may be a trap, even though it initially an accumulation. While retail investors show clear enthusiasm, major investor groups and key technical patterns warn that XRP’s recovery might not last.

The Hodler Net Position Change—a measure of long-term investors’ buying or selling activity—has dropped significantly.  Holdings decreased by 34 percent, from 163.68. 68 million XRP to 107.84. 84 million XRP from October 2 to October 15,

This indicates that long-term holders are selling rather than preparing for a comeback.
XRP is expected to move between $ 2. 2.3 and $ 2. 2.5 over the next week. A decline seems more likely because the chances of additional gains are low (less than 20%). The default scenario is the price remaining in a sideways range between $ 2 30 and $ 2 44. While a bullish move above $ 2. 50 seems unlikely; a clear drop below $ 2.30 could trigger a fall toward $ 2.18–$ 2.20.

Two other metrics support this outlook. The Smart Money Index (SMI), which measured the positioning of experienced traders, has fallen to its second-lowest point since early October. This reflects a decrease in rebound confidence. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors the flow of money into or out of large wallets, stays below zero.

The lack of significant buying by large wallets indicates weak conviction. Taken together, these indicators suggest that major players are pulling back, despite price volatility attracting many traders.

Exchange outflows have risen despite poor confidence among large holders, which is often seen as a bullish sign. From –12. 7 million XRP on October 10 to –960 million XRP on October 15, the Exchange Net Position Change- measuring the movement of XRP in or out of exchanges- has increased by over 7,400 percent. This signals that investors are withdrawing tokens from exchanges, reducing immediate selling pressure.

Smart money, whales, and long-term holders are staying on the sidelines, implying that this activity likely points to potential retail accumulation—smaller investors hoping to profit from a rebound. Retail-driven buying without whale support has historically caused rallies to fade quickly, trapping late buyers as prices reverse.

Paxos’ $300 Trillion Stablecoin Gaffe

PayPal’s blockchain partner, Paxos, encountered a “technical error” on Wednesday that resulted in the creation of $300 trillion worth of PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD.

Market observers noticed this massive influx of PYUSD on Etherscan, an Ethereum blockchain analytics platform and block explorer. Paxos quickly identified the error and burned the excess PYUSD, which had been accidentally minted during an internal transfer, according to a statement the company released on social media.

Paxos emphasized, “An internal technical error occurred. There isn’t any security lapse, and customers’ money is secure. We have addressed the underlying issue.”

PYUSD is marketed as a stablecoin fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, U.S. Treasury bonds, and similar cash equivalents. PayPal asserts that the tokens can always be redeemed for U.S. dollars on a one-to-one basis. However, this technical error highlights that while PayPal and its independent third-party attestation reports ensure the dollar peg, this guarantee is not directly tied to the stablecoin’s minting process.

The $300 trillion in PYUSD would theoretically require more than double the world’s estimated total GDP, suggesting that there are not enough dollars in circulation globally to support such an amount. This situation arose during a period of growing interest in stablecoins, as more banks and payment systems started to adopt them.

BTC Breaks Down: Bears Smell Blood below $110K

The bears are back in town because Bitcoin just fell below $109,000. This correction is intriguing because of its timing, which may also be related to US President Donald Trump.

The POTUS is reportedly meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the time of writing, just one day before Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits him at the White House.

Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery, trading near $109,000 after testing support at $107,500. Interestingly, the ongoing gold rally might boost Bitcoin’s growth

Bitcoin has historically experienced strong rallies following peaks in gold’s momentum. If this pattern continues, a rotation after gold’s peak could push Bitcoin to all-time highs. To keep the bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to stay above $110,000 for now.

Bitcoin recovered to $112,000 after initially holding that support but then fell to $108,500 after losing over $3K in less than an hour.

CoinGlass data reports that the total value of liquidated positions is rising again, approaching $600 million. Nearly 200,000 traders are wiped out each day, and the largest liquidation involved nearly $10 million on Hyperliquid.