Forex Signals Brief July 26: US PCE Inflation Closes the Week

Posted on July 26, 2024July 26, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday it started with the German IFO Business Climate index, which showed another slowdown, against expectations for an improvement this month. However, the Euro held its ground well against most major currencies yesterday, despite private loans also missing expectations.

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Bitcoin Bulls Defiant: Are Smart Traders Loading And Targeting $74,000?

Posted on July 26, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Bitcoin closed lower yesterday, but unlike the day before, the bar had a long lower wick pointing to strength. In the days ahead, traders might consider bull entries and double down on dips, considering that the dominant trend is upward.

Notably, prices are still inside last week’s range. For this reason, every dip above the 20-day moving average is attractive for aggressive buyers targeting this week’s highs. However, if sellers push on, any drop below $60,000, reversing July 15 gains, cancels this bullish outlook.

As mentioned earlier, buyers have the upper hand. The coin is within a bullish breakout formation after gains of July 15. As it is, Bitcoin is up 23% from July lows, pushing gains in the last day and week to roughly 5%.

Traders are closely monitoring the following trending Bitcoin news:

Despite recent losses, permanent holders have been accumulating. By the third week of July, they have added roughly 260,000 BTC. Notably, and for the avoidance of doubt, these addresses are not spot Bitcoin ETF issuers or miners.
The contraction of Bitcoin prices roughly coincides with swelling USDT activity. In the past, every time billions flow into stablecoins, mostly USDT, BTC, and crypto prices tend to swell.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] is firm, rejecting losses of early this week.

As it is, the uptrend remains since the coin is moving inside last week’s range.

Since Bitcoin is still above $60,000 and $62,000, retesting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 2024 trade range, bulls have the upper hand.

In line with this, aggressive buyers may look to buy on dips, expecting a retest of $69,000 in the days to come.

However, conservative traders, on the other hand, can wait for a clean close above $70,000 and the July 21 high before committing. In that event, the first target would be $74,000.

Ethereum Drops 20% In 2 Months: Whales Buy Over 700,000 ETH, What Do They Know?

Posted on July 26, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum is under immense selling pressure, looking at the performance in the daily chart. Two days after the spot Ethereum ETFs went live, bulls are slowing down as the market struggles to soak the oversupply from ETHE outflows. Technically, buyers are upbeat, expecting Ethereum to follow Bitcoin and fly in the coming weeks. The problem is that the reception has been decent but way below what spot Bitcoin ETFs received in the first few trading days.

So far, ETH is dumping. It is down 10% from last week’s highs, and sellers are pressing the gas pedal despite optimism. Presently, Ethereum is up 3% on the last day but down 5% on the previous week. At the same time, the average trading volume, a metric for gauging participation, is down to $21 billion. By all measures, it is high but below average. For buyers to take over there must be rejection of lower lows at the back of rising trading volume.

As cracks begin to form, traders are watching the following Ethereum news events today:

Amid the discouraging ETH sell-off, it is emerging that whales have been taking advantage of this price decline to buy even more. On July 24, on-chain data reveals that these large entities bought roughly $1 billion worth of ETH, adding to the 400,000 ETH they acquired on July 23.
At the same time, so far this year, the number of active Ethereum and layer-2 addresses increased by over 120%. According to Glassnode, platforms like Arbitrum and Base were among the most active, commanding over 1.8 million addresses.

Ethereum Price Analysis

After surging to nearly $4,000 in late May, Ethereum is fast-dropping, looking at the performance in the daily chart.

At spot rates, ETH is down 20% in roughly two months.

Active traders can look to sell, aligning with the dominant trend.

The immediate target will be $3,000 and $2,800. Any attempt higher but within the July 25 bear bar may offer entries.

However, should there be a total reversal, prices will likely bounce back strongly.

Conservative, risk-on traders can wait for a clean close above $3,500 before committing. In that event, Ethereum could find the momentum to float, rising to as high as $4,000 and $4,100 in a buy trend continuation pattern.

XRP Resilient: Donald Trump Backed By Ripple Executive, Will Bulls Break $0.62?

Posted on July 26, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is, for the lack of a better word, all over the place, though buyers have the upper hand. The failure of buyers to break higher, closing above $0.62, may offer entries for traders who want to enter at around current prices. Overall, there is room for growth since the bullish breakout formation of July 12 and 13 remains. Though technical candlestick formations count, Ripple is mainly driven by fundamental factors.

As XRP bulls tussle to flip USDC to sixth, they are resilient. A look at the daily chart shows that the coin is up a decent 50% from July lows. The momentum might have slowed in the past day, down 1%, but up 10% in the previous week. Overall, there is engagement, looking at the expansion of trading volume to $1.9 billion.

Traders are looking at the following Ripple and XRP news:

Reports show that the pro-crypto presidential candidate Donald Trump has received over $4 million in donations. Donors include the Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty who contributed $300,000 in XRP.
One of Ripple’s key partners in Southeast Asia, SBI, has partnered with Franklin Templeton, one of the issuers of spot Ethereum ETFs. The collaboration will allow the two firms to form a joint venture focused on crypto. SBI will be the majority holder.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is in an uptrend, trending within a bullish breakout formation.

The local resistance will be $0.62.

On the lower end, XRP has support at $0.55.

Since the coin is within a bull flag and buyers have the upper hand, traders might consider buying dips above $0.55 and targeting $0.62.

On the other hand, a firm close above $0.62, supported by rising volume, might push the coin to $0.66 in a buy trend continuation formation.

Bitcoin Cracks Forming: Will Mt. Gox Distribution Force A Sell-Off to $60,000?

Posted on July 25, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Bitcoin is trending lower at press time, looking at the formation in the daily chart. For now, whether the coin will solidly reclaim $66,000 and convincingly close above last week’s highs for trend continuation remains to be seen. Before then, the path of least resistance will be southwards, at least in the short term.

Technically, bulls have the upper hand. However, the failure of buyers to soak in losses from earlier this week is a concern. Due to the selling pressure of July 24 and earlier today, Bitcoin is down, extending losses. The coin is down 4% in the past day and shedding 2% in the previous week. At the same time, trading volume continues to shrink, reaching $34 billion in the last day.

The following Bitcoin news events are dominating headlines:

Even as millions of BTC are distributed by Mt. Gox, on-chain data, especially those linked to distributing exchanges like Kraken, shows that there has been no spike in spot trading activity. For this reason, buyers still have a chance since there is no panic selling.
Riot Platforms, one of the leading Bitcoin miners, acquired Block Mining for over $92 million, per a press release on July 24. The objective is to increase the miner’s capacity, cementing its role in the Bitcoin mining scene.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] remains red when writing, but buyers dominate from the top-down preview.

Buyers have the upper hand as long as prices remain inside the bull bar and the trading range of July 15 to 21.

For this reason, aggressive Bitcoin traders can consider loading the dip, targeting $70,000 and $72,000 in the short term.

However, a close above $69,000 and last week’s highs could ignite buying pressure, accelerating the leg up to all-time highs.

If not, and sellers double down, any drop below $60,000 will cancel this bullish outlook.

Ethereum Melting After Spot ETF Launch: Will ETH Retest $3,000?

Posted on July 25, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum is down, compounding fears among traders that the coin could extend losses throughout the second half of the week. For now, the coin is retesting $3,100 and risks plunging even lower in the days ahead. If anything, aggressive sellers can align with this emerging trend, targeting $3,000 and $2,800. Even so, considering the fundamental factors in play, ETH will likely find support in the medium to long term, eventually breaking above $3,500 in a buy trend continuation formation.

Losses of July 24 can be seen in how Ethereum performs. To put in the numbers, ETH is down 9% in 24 hours and relatively stable in the previous week of trading, shedding 8%. At the same time, the contraction is pushing engagement higher. The average trading volume is $21 billion.

Traders are watching the following trending Ethereum news today:

Though spot Ethereum ETFs are up to a strong start, analysts argue that the enthusiasm doesn’t march that seen when similar products were launched for Bitcoin. On the first day, slightly over $1.1 billion of inflows was registered, representing roughly 30% funneled to BTC on launch.
A recent paper exploring the Ethereum builder market scene has been endorsed by Vitalik Buterin. The paper seeks to find insights into what drives success and profitability among dapp developers.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is in red, sinking from $3,500, looking at the performance in the daily chart.

Buyers are upbeat, but the drop below $3,300 throws a wrench into the bulls’ equation.

In the short to medium term, aggressive buyers can look to double down, expecting a rebound above $3,500.

This preview, however, holds only if Ethereum remains above $3,000.

If not, any drop below the psychological round number, $3,000, cancels this bullish outlook and will likely forcer ETH to $2,800.

A comfortable breach of $3,500 and last week’s highs might accelerate the leg up to $4,100 and 2021 highs in the coming weeks.

XRP Shaky: Is The Rally To $0.74 After Ripple-SEC Case Settlement Unstoppable?

Posted on July 25, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is firm down at press time but remains confined in a bullish formation. From the look of things, every attempt lower could offer entries for aggressive traders to load up, expecting a sharp breakout above $0.66. The bullish bar seen yesterday forced valuation higher, temporarily lifting XRP above USDC yesterday. However, bulls need sustained gains above $0.66, mirroring gains seen for the better part of last week. In that event, XRP could soar to fresh multi-week highs, confirming the breakout of July 15.

As XRP prices rip higher, the coin is up 1% in 24 hours but up 5% in the past week. At the same time, the average trading volume is up, rising to over $2.2 billion. Even though lower than the mean of last week, there is activity and prices are edging higher; a net positive for bulls.

XRP and Ripple traders are closely monitoring the following news events:

From the candlestick charts, XRP has faced strong rejections at $0.65. This line must be decisively broken for buyers to confirm their control. In that event, the breakout bar must be with rising volume and the candlestick wide ranging.
Among other factors that might propel XRP to fresh high is the expected spike in on-demand liquidity adoption in the United States once the Ripple-SEC case is settled. The absence of regulatory clarity presents major challenges for interested payment processors.

XRP Price Analysis

At spot rates, [[XRP/USD]] is in a bullish formation.

As mentioned earlier, traders can consider loading opportunities.

For risk-off traders, every attempt lower might be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at $0.66 and $0.74.

On the other side of the equation, risk-on, conservative traders can wait for a clean break above last week’s highs and $0.66 before considering longs. Their targets would be $0.93 and $1.

Any unexpected drop forcing XRP below $0.55 cancels this bullish outlook.

Forex Signals Brief July 24: BOC Expected to Cut Rates Again by 25 bps

Posted on July 24, 2024July 24, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

With the exception of the JPY, the USD continued its upward trajectory against all major currencies yesterday as safe havens gained traction amid a general decline in risk appetite. The USDJPY is still trending lower and is set to challenge its key 100-day moving average, as well as its low from last Friday at 155.350. Despite trading up for most of the day, the market closed slightly lower. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all experienced declines of -0.15%, -0.15%, and -0.06%, respectively.

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Bitcoin Shaky As Kraken Distributes Mt. Gox BTC: Back To $63,000?

Posted on July 24, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Bitcoin is trending lower at press time, sinking below $66,000 yesterday. Of note, looking at the formation in the daily chart, the bear bar of July 23 is engulfing, wiping out gains of July 20 and 21. If anything, there should be concerns about whether buyers have what it takes to push back against this wave of liquidation. Should there be a confirmation of yesterday’s losses, forcing the coin below the crucial support, now resistance, tough questions will be asked.

Amid this sell-off, Bitcoin remains in an uptrend following the expansion from the second week of July. For now, BTC is up 20% from July lows. However, it is down 1% in the past day, adding 1% in the previous week. Of note, engagement is also suppressed, falling to $32 billion in the past day.

Traders are closely keeping tabs on the following Bitcoin news:

Kraken, the crypto exchange, has begun distributing BTC to Mt. Gox victims. The compensation marks ten years of patience after the defunct exchange was robbed of billions worth of BTC in 2014.
One analyst notes that despite the recent price volatility, the average exchange volume flow is higher. If there is a spike of 11%, pushing exchange flow to 45%, it will exceed the average annual volume threshold. Usually, when this happens, prices tend to recover.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The [[BTC/USD]] uptrend stands at a precarious state.

Though Bitcoin is up 20% from July lows, it remains under pressure, dropping below $66,000.

Conservative traders can consider staying away for now. A close above last week’s highs and, ideally, $72,000 will be crucial for trend continuation.

If sellers press on, the reaction at $63,000 will be crucial. A bounce will reinvigorate buyers, allowing BTC to bounce higher in alignment with last week’s gains.

If not, BTC could sink lower, even falling below $60,000.

Ethereum Makes History: Why Is ETH Price So Boring Below $3,500?

Posted on July 24, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum is stable, a day after the United States SEC approved the trading of spot ETFs. Issuers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have listed their assets to clients through NYSE and Cboe. It is historic, considering that no one expected the product to see the light of day, at least not this year. However, with the change of tune by the strict regulator, experts now predict ETH will attract institutional interest. If ETH finds the billions that Bitcoin benefited from, the coin could easily glide above $4,000.

At press time, Ethereum is stable over the last day and week. However, because of the added institutional demand, the average trading volume is up, rising to over $23 billion. In the days ahead, it will be crucial to see how prices react. A close above $3,500 could draw more traders, lifting ETH towards the $3,700 resistance level.

Traders are watching the following trending Ethereum news:

Yesterday, the United States SEC approved multiple spot Ethereum ETFs. According to public data, these products are now available for trading at various bourses, including Cboe, NYSE, and NASDAQ.
According to experts, the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs means the coin has turned the corner on the regulatory front. Since the shift from proof-of-work to staking, regulators in the United States have failed to publicly clarify the status of ETH.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is moving horizontally at press time but bullish.

However, if past price action in BTC after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs guide, the coin could cool off.

If that happens, ETH should stay steady above $3,300 and $2,800.

Even so, considering the general optimism, every low might offer opportunities for traders to accumulate on dips.

A close above $3,500 might see Ethereum lift off, rallying to $3,700.

On the other hand, a decisive breach of $4,100 may see bulls flow back, setting eyes on $4,900.