Forex Signals Brief July 26: US PCE Inflation Closes the Week

Yesterday it started with the German IFO Business Climate index, which showed another slowdown, against expectations for an improvement this month. However, the Euro held its ground well against most major currencies yesterday, despite private loans also missing expectations.

US PCE inflation will be the most important release of the week

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Forex Signals Brief July 25: Eyes on USD GDP and Jobless Claims

The U.S. stock market experienced a negative start yesterday which ended even worse, impacted by disappointing earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla released after the market close on Tuesday. Former Fed Governor Dudley expressed concerns that the negative unemployment cycle was beginning and cautioned that the Fed should not delay rate cuts, suggesting it might already be too late to prevent rising unemployment. These remarks, alongside the earnings reports, contributed to the S&P and Nasdaq having their worst trading days since late 2022. In the Forex market, the JPY and CHF benefited as investors sought safer assets.

The US Q2 GDP is expected to show a 2% growth

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Forex Signals Brief July 23: US Home Sales to Resume the Decline

The weekend’s headline event was Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic presidential race and the subsequent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Yesterday’s markets saw no major economic data releases. Harris is now almost certain to secure the nomination, as other party officials have also voiced their support. This opened the door for her to receive the nomination.

US existing home sales are expected to  slow in June

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Crypto market volatility burns $172 million

Bitcoin’s price quickly sunk on Sunday following Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not run for president in 2024. Th sudden drop resulted in the liquidation of millions of dollars in long positions, though it was only temporary.

According to data from Binance, Bitcoin’s value fell from $67.4K to $65.8K in just 30 minutes, with sales likely being prompted by the uncertainty surrounding such a significant election upheaval.

The price charts of other popular digital assets like Ethereum and Solana, also show similar short-term declines, Over the previous day, 59,044 traders were liquidated,  a total of $172.12 million. The biggest liquidation order was placed on Binance, $11 million worth of BTCUSDT.

According to CoinGlass data, most of those liquidations were long positions, totaling $110 million, most of which occurred during the significant market decline following Biden’s remark. At $49 million throughout that time, Bitcoin has been the most liquidated, followed by Ethereum at $31 million.

But since then, the values of Bitcoin and other valuable assets have increased to levels not seen in over a month, especially after Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him as the Democratic nominee.

Bitcoin reached a peak of $68,284, a level not seen since June 12; however, as of this writing, it has somewhat decreased. Furthermore, Solana is now at its highest price in the past two months at almost $185.

Popular political meme coins, such as KAMA, the most expensive meme currency featuring Kamala Harris, are manufactured on Solana. On Sunday, KAMA surged to a new all-time high price, surpassing $0.025 before beginning to decline. On the other hand, the most popular Biden token, “Jeo Boden” (BODEN), has dropped 52% today and is currently over 99% below its April peak price.

Ethereum takes spotlight, 5 ETH Spot ETFs set to begin trading

Traders’ expectations are focused on how long the current bullish reversal in Ethereum’s price will endure, given the introduction of ETHer spot ETFs.

Five-spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will begin trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on July 23 “pending regulatory effectiveness,” according to a July 19 announcement from the CBOE.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved rule changes that permit numerous spot ETFs for the super altcoin. Before the new products could be sold, the regulator was still required to approve each fund issuer’s S-1 registration statements.

The five spot Ether ETFs that are set to open for trade include Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, Franklin Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, and 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF.

Nearly every issuer of an ETH ETF has stated plans to temporarily eliminate or decrease fees to fight for market share once the products begin trading. This is an attempt to get an early market edge.

The rise in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio above 1 indicates a noteworthy positive mood among traders, per CryptoQuant. An increase in this indicator coincides with the most recent price rebound, affirming market players are growing more positive about Ethereum’s future. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio may indicate a steady mid-term bullish trend and push prices higher if this upward trend in the ratio holds.

The recent price reversal of Ethereum and a spike in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio point to an optimistic outlook for the futures market. A mid-term bullish trend may be confirmed if this ratio climbs, indicating strong buying demand. Traders will be keen to see if this trend continues, with the potential to drive up the price of Ethereum.

A thorough examination of Ethereum’s daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency started a bullish surge, breaking above the 200-day ($3152) and 100-day ($3340) moving averages, following a noticeable increase in purchasing pressure close to the significant $3K support area.

In addition, ETH has recovered the $3.5K resistance zone, a major challenge for buyers in recent months. This price movement suggests buyers are actively participating in the market and trying to set a new yearly high.

Ethereum has developed a sideways wedge pattern in the past few months. After a brief period of market consolidation, it is anticipated to resume its upward trend to surpass the wedge’s upper boundary at $3.7K. If that resistance line is broken, a new annual high above $4K might result.

Binance latest major entrant to U.S Treasury Bills market

An American judge granted Binance permission to invest some of its customers’ fiat money in US Treasury bills. The court ruling allows cryptocurrency exchange to permit customers to put fiat money into US Treasury bonds.

The District Court of Columbia’s court filing disclosed that the exchange is limited to investing in specific customer holdings under BitGo’s control.

Additionally, the exchange must guarantee that the investments come from corporate assets acquired from other companies or investors. Additionally, the business must submit its investment data every month.
According to court documents that disclose the approval, the approved US Treasury Bills “will mature on a rolling four-week basis,” with no third-party inclusion.
The court’s ruling, which permits Binance to invest client funds in US Treasury Bills, portends the potential role of cryptocurrencies in supporting the US dollar against the BRICS countries’ de-dollarization initiatives.

More precisely, collateralized stablecoins have been proposed as a way to hold US debt instruments, potentially extending US dollar dominance by decades. This would help offset some of the massive inflation caused by years of quantitative easing, subpar monetary policy, and reckless fiscal policy.

Many in the cryptocurrency world expressed optimism upon hearing the news, seeing it as a significant victory for Binance and the sector as a whole. Others predict that the action will boost the value of the BNB token.

On the X platform, discussions have surfaced indicating that the permission may impact Ethena’s USDe stablecoin. Some investors think that USDe holders may switch away from the stablecoin due to Binance’s fresh US Treasury bill investments.

Forex Signals July 19: UK, Canada Retail Sales Closing the Week

Yesterday started with the employment report from Australia, showing a decent jump of 50.2K new jobs in June, confirming that the employment sector remains on solid ground. That sent the AUD 20 pips higher against the USD in the Asian session, but at the end of the day, AUD/USD ended up lower as the USD made a comeback in the US session.

UK and Canada retail sales are expected to turn negative

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Dogwifhat on a rampage despite lagging Solana

Solana-based meme coin WIF rose to prominence as one of the top performers this July, despite Solana (SOL) trailing the overall crypto market, WIF is on the rise.WIF Bulls appear to be fully engaged. It has increased by more than 50% over the last seven days, making it the best performer on a weekly spectrum

Interestingly, out of all the top meme crypto assets with a market valuation above $1 billion, WIF is the only token in the green. Like a big portion of the crypto market, Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), PEPE, BONK, FLOKI, and BRETT are all in the red. Dogwifhat is still the fourth-biggest memecoin in market valuation, trailing only Pepe, valued at about $5 billion, almost twice as much as Dogwifhat.

 

 

The price of WIF increased from $1.5, gaining traction and closing at $2.37. Important indicators that indicate buyers are in control, such as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.19, reinforce the bullish trend.

The bullish outlook is strengthened by the affirmation of a buy signal by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This would motivate traders to place more buy orders, which can likely push WIF over the resistance level of $2.5. Bulls must overcome seller congestion at the blue declining trend line to accomplish a two-fold rally and hit the previous all-time high of $4.85.

Solana faced selling pressure close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of the previous negative move, despite testing the $160 resistance.
There are immediate resistance levels at $162 and $172. Another bullish wave is probably in the works if there is a clear daily closing above $162. Solana may aim for stronger resistances around $188 and possibly $192, with a potential extension towards the $200 level, if it can break above $162.

Following its ride on the meme coin craze from March to April, WIF took a significant setback that resulted in a month-long consolidation. WIF stayed comparatively stable during this cycle, despite other meme coins like PEPE and BONK experiencing increases. Several members of the crypto community speculated that WIF had peaked.

An asset’s social volume and investors’ feelings are blended to provide a balanced viewpoint captured by the Santiment Weighted Sentiment indicator. When there is a rise in social volume surrounding an asset, the indicator surges, and most of the messages are favorable. When the emotion is negative the volume is still strong. It remains at zero if the social volume is high but the sentiment is ambiguous. It also remains close to 0 at low volumes.

The weighted sentiment of WIF is 0.6, which suggests that the cryptocurrency community has a positive outlook. The social context of Santiment also reveals that terms like “high” and “rally” have been frequently used about WIF. Corrections occasionally follow a token when the crowd becomes too exuberant, even though this suggests that there may be more upsides.

Since its launch on November 20, 2023, the value of this meme coin has increased by about 2800%. Based on its popularity, the WIF price prediction indicates a bullish performance to outperform well-known meme coins like BONK and Shiba Inu.

Ether Bulls show exhaustion despite SEC’s approval

Ethereum surged by double digits in the past week, but the bullish momentum was stopped by solid resistance near $3,500. On July 18, there was a following decline to $3,400 even though the SEC approved two more Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ether’s futures market hasn’t seen much activity despite this encouraging trend.

 

At least three issuers were reportedly granted provisional approval by the SEC on July 23 to start trading spot Ether ETFs. Following revisions to the funds’ S-1 registrations, eight spot Ether ETFs are pending final regulatory clearance.

Ethereum’s daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency started a bullish climb, breaking above the 100-day ($3.3K) and 200-day ($3.1K) moving averages, following a noticeable increase in purchasing pressure close to the significant $3K support region.

In addition, ETH has recovered the $3.5K resistance zone, a major challenge for buyers in recent months. This price movement suggests buyers actively participate in the market and try to set a new yearly high.

However, Ethereum has developed a sideways wedge pattern. After a brief period of market consolidation, it is anticipated to resume its upward trend to surpass the wedge’s upper boundary at $3.7K. A new annual high above $4K might result if this barrier is successfully overcome.

The annualized premium, or basis rate, for Ether fixed-month contracts, is currently 11%, which suggests a reasonable level of optimism. Nevertheless, considering the prospective inflows from the impending spot ETF launch in the US, it is rather alarming that this indicator has not maintained levels above 12% for the last month. In contrast, the base rate for Bitcoin is likewise 11%, suggesting that Ethereum investors are not overly optimistic.
Ether Bulls’ gas would be elevated if the anticipation of robust spot ETF net inflows is validated, the present lack of confidence allows space for a surprise.  Ether’s rally hasn’t been impressive despite a favorable scenario for risk-on assets suggests that investors are not as enthusiastic, which lessens the likelihood of a bull run above $4,000.

The market is showing strength as the current consolidation phase validates the recent breakout above the trendline and completes a pullback to it. The price will soon resume its positive trend if it closes above its last central pivot of $3524.

Forex Signals Brief July 16: Canada CPI Inflation and US Retail Sales!

Yesterday the week started with a round of economic data from China which once again leaned on the soft side, setting the tone for the Asian and European sessions. as A Result, European and Asian stock markets ended up lower, while risk currencies gained against the USD, which started the week on the soft side too.

CPI Inflation is expected to fall again in Canada, which would weigh n the CAD

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