Day: July 17, 2025

Mexican Peso Weakens as Dollar Gains Strength; Closes at 18.75 per Dollar

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and a decline in jobless claims, which boosted the greenback.

The exchange rate closed the session at 18.7569 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.7274 on Wednesday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a loss of 2.95 centavos, or 0.16%, for the Mexican currency.

The dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.8455 and a low of 18.7217 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — rose 0.36% to 98.64 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

Strong U.S. Economic Data

U.S. retail sales increased 0.6% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of 0.2%, and rose 3.5% year-over-year. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5%, also exceeding the forecast of 0.3%.

While these figures are positive for the U.S. economy, they may complicate the outlook for President Donald Trump, as a strong economy and a firmer dollar support arguments for holding interest rates steady.

Labor Market Supports Rate Pause

On the labor front, jobless claims fell to 221,000 in the week ending July 12 — down 7,000 from the prior week and below the consensus estimate of 234,000 — pointing to continued strength in the labor market.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler added to the sentiment by saying the central bank should hold off on rate cuts “for some time” as tariffs begin to show up in inflation data.

Short-Term Outlook

Given current trends, analysts expect the peso to trade between 18.76 and 18.83 through the end of the day. In overnight trading, the expected range is 18.72 to 18.83.

Euro Bets Rise as Markets Debate Whether the Dollar Has Bottomed

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Retail inflation in the European Union (EU) reached 2% in June, yet the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated it is unlikely to cut interest rates again until trade tensions with the United States are resolved. In this context, the euro has appreciated nearly 12% so far this year, fueled by global uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

stock markets plunge after trump tariffs

The headline consumer price index matched the midpoint of the ECB’s inflation target, accelerating slightly from May’s 1.9% and in line with analysts’ expectations. Core inflation — which excludes volatile components like food and energy — held steady at 2.3%, unchanged from the previous month.
EU’s Standoff with Trump

Despite the uptick in inflation, the ECB signaled it would likely pause rate cuts at its upcoming meeting later this month, citing the uncertain outlook created by renewed trade tensions with the U.S. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports.

[[EUR/USD-graph]]

“A firm hand is needed to deal with the uncertainty unleashed by the latest tariff threat from the U.S. president,” said one ECB official earlier this week. The impact of geopolitical swings and trade tensions with the U.S. on prices remains “highly unpredictable,” he added.

Although the current trade climate is complicating monetary policy decisions, it is unlikely to derail the ECB’s plan to hold rates steady next week, according to five central bank policymakers who spoke with Reuters.

Market Projection – Euro Bets

While Trump appears open to deals that could reduce tariffs, his latest comments make clear he’s not interested in drawn-out negotiations. This reintroduces uncertainty at a time when countries like the EU are trying to secure agreements to avoid another escalation.

Compounding the uncertainty are Trump’s renewed efforts to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, primarily due to Powell’s reluctance to cut interest rates despite inflationary pressures tied to tariffs. On Thursday, the president said it was “unlikely” he would fire Powell — a sharp contrast to reports earlier in the week suggesting otherwise.
Euro Strengthens

Financial markets seem to be interpreting Trump’s tariff threat as a negotiating tactic. Strategists at Morgan Stanley told Bloomberg that a move beyond $1.30 for the euro “should not be underestimated.”

The investment bank joins Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas SA, and Barclays in forecasting further euro strength. Year to date, the euro has gained 11.8% against the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Signaling Stronger Consumer Demand

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.6% in June, surpassing the 0.1% increase forecast by a Reuters poll of economists, according to data released Thursday by the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. The rebound follows an unrevised 0.9% decline in May.

However, analysts warn that the stronger-than-expected data may reflect higher prices for goods affected by import tariffs, rather than a true increase in sales volume. This week’s inflation data revealed sharp price hikes in tariff-sensitive categories such as sporting goods, appliances, furniture, and toys.

While household consumption remains resilient, there are signs of a slowdown in discretionary spending. Core retail sales — which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services — rose 0.5% in June, following a downward revision to 0.2% in May. These core figures feed directly into the GDP’s consumer spending component, which had increased by 0.4% in May.

Jobless Claims Fall Below Expectations, Suggesting Labor Market Resilience

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits came in lower than expected last week, totaling 221,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The figure was revised upward for the prior week to 228,000, from an earlier estimate of 227,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 new claims.

The four-week moving average, a more stable indicator that smooths out short-term volatility, dropped to 229,500. Meanwhile, continuing claims — the number of people receiving benefits beyond their first week — rose slightly to 1.956 million.

Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Microsoft Face the Challenge of High Valuations

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Shares of major U.S. tech companies have surged in recent months, driven by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence, pushing many stocks to record highs and raising valuation concerns among Wall Street analysts and investors.

A new record of $4 trillion made history for Nvidia.
A new record of $4 trillion made history for Nvidia.

Over the past three months, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Microsoft have posted an average gain of 35%. Among them, Nvidia and Meta stood out as market favorites, soaring 52% and 41%, respectively.

As a result, these four tech giants now trade at an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30x — well above the S&P 500’s 22x multiple. Meta, Nvidia, and Microsoft are currently trading at forward P/E ratios above their three-year averages, while Alphabet sits just slightly below its historical norm.

[[NVDA/USD-graph]]

Beyond the “Magnificent Seven”

The rally extended beyond the most iconic names. Broadcom, for instance, jumped 57% in the last quarter, reaching its highest valuation in five years, while Uber climbed 25%.

“We believe the recent surge in large-cap tech and AI stocks has been primarily driven by P/E multiple expansion,” UBS Financial Services noted. “While we maintain a structurally positive outlook on AI, we would prefer to see gains underpinned by upward earnings-per-share revisions rather than pure valuation expansion.”

Given the lofty valuations, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and the upcoming Q2 earnings season, UBS highlighted the importance of a balanced and selective approach.

“We recommend investors seek diversified exposure across semiconductors, software, and internet platforms, rather than concentrating risk in a single segment or individual stock,” the report concluded.

PayPal (PYPL) Stock Analysis: Is a Bullish Reversal Finally Underway?

Posted on by Konstantin Kaiser

PayPal (PYPL) remains under significant long-term pressure, currently trading over 76% below its 2021 all-time high. The stock has been in a multi-year downtrend since July 2021, culminating in a local bottom in October 2023. From there, it entered a recovery phase, but broader technical signals suggest this rebound remains structurally fragile.

PayPal (PYPL) Stock Shows A Bearish Trend

The initial recovery leg peaked in January 2025, precisely at the 50-month EMA, which acted as a dynamic resistance level around $89.21. That test resulted in a decisive bearish rejection, leading to a retracement down to the $56 support region — a key area where buyers re-entered and stabilized price action.

Since that low, PYPL has been trending higher for the past three months, but this current upswing is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. This month, bullish momentum is visibly weakening, raising caution for continuation traders.

From a momentum perspective:

  • The MACD histogram continues to print bearish, indicating underlying trend weakness, even though the MACD lines remain in a bullish crossover — a mixed signal that reflects a tug-of-war between short-term buyers and longer-term sellers.

  • The RSI sits in a neutral zone, offering no clear directional bias at present.

On a year-to-date basis, PYPL is down approximately 20%, underscoring its underperformance relative to broader tech benchmarks.

In summary, while PayPal has managed a technical rebound off multi-year lows, the rejection at the 50-month EMA and the recent momentum deceleration suggest that the recovery remains vulnerable, and confirmation of trend continuation remains absent. Traders should closely monitor support levels and watch for any breakdown in momentum indicators to reassess directional bias.

PayPal
PayPal

PayPal (PYPL) – Weekly Chart: Correction Targets & Technical Structure

PayPal (PYPL) continues to trade within a corrective structure, with the weekly chart confirming a bearish mid-term trend. A death cross formation between the 50-week and 200-week EMAs reinforces bearish pressure, while the MACD histogram has started to tick lower, signaling renewed downside momentum. Notably, the MACD lines remain in a bullish crossover, reflecting residual strength from the prior rebound phase. The RSI remains neutral, providing no clear directional signal at this stage.

Currently, PYPL is testing support at the 50-week EMA near $72.60. A decisive break below this level would likely open the door for further downside towards the Fibonacci support levels at $69 and $63, respectively — both key zones to watch for potential buyer re-entry.

On the upside, any bullish reaction would face its next major resistance at the 200-week EMA, currently situated around $88. A weekly close above this level would be required to shift the mid-term technical outlook back toward neutral-to-bullish.

PayPal
PayPal

PayPal (PYPL) – Daily Chart: A Potential Golden Crossover in Sight

On the daily timeframe, momentum remains mixed with a bearish crossover in the MACD lines and a MACD histogram that continues to tick lower, indicating short-term downside pressure. The RSI is tracking within neutral territory, offering no clear momentum bias.

However, price action is approaching a key technical juncture: the daily EMAs are nearing a potential golden crossover, where the 50-day EMA could cross above the 200-day EMA. If confirmed, this would signal a bullish shift in the short- to medium-term trend, despite current weakness in momentum indicators.

Conclusion: While the current momentum backdrop remains soft, the potential for a golden EMA crossover adds a constructive undertone to the daily structure. A confirmation of this crossover could attract fresh bullish interest, provided support levels hold in the near term.

PayPal
PayPal

PayPal (PYPL) – 4H Chart: Bullish Confirmation

On the 4-hour chart, PayPal has confirmed a short-term bullish trend with a completed golden crossover of the EMAs — a technical signal suggesting upward momentum is gaining traction. Supporting this, the MACD histogram is currently ticking higher, indicating strengthening bullish pressure beneath the surface.

However, this move is not yet fully confirmed across all indicators: the MACD lines remain bearishly crossed, and the RSI continues to hover in neutral territory, reflecting a market still in transition.

Conclusion: There is further upside, with key resistances at $88 and $89. Should the PYPL stock fail to breakout bullishly, it could retrace down to the Fib support levels at $69 and $63.

PayPal
PayPal

Polkadot (DOT) Breakout Alert: Major Bull Cycle Brewing as $4.052 Falls

Posted on by Roy Levine

Polkadot (DOT) is flashing a powerful bullish signal as it pushes past a critical multi-timeframe resistance level at $4.052 — a line that acts as a pivotal inflection point. This breakout, reinforced by a short-term trigger breach at $4.169, is now opening the door to a medium-term rally that could propel DOT toward $4.958 — a move representing nearly 20% upside from current levels.

Polkadot Thumbnail Image
Polkadot (DOT) Bullish Looking Thumbnail Image

Backed by renewed interest in scalable layer-0 networks and cross-chain interoperability protocols, DOT’s technical and fundamental landscape is aligning for what could become the early phase of a much larger structural bull cycle.

Breakout Levels & Bullish Structure

On the Daily chart, DOT has successfully broken above its short-term key resistance at $4.169, a level that capped price action throughout the early part of July. This breakout confirms short-term bullish momentum, especially as price is now sustaining above that threshold on successive daily candles.

Polkadot Daily Chart
Polkadot (DOT) Bullish Looking Daily Chart

Zooming out to the Weekly chart, we’re seeing price breach the long-standing major resistance at $4.052, which has historically acted as both support and resistance across several market cycles. The convergence of these two breakout points — short-term trigger at $4.169 and macro inflection at $4.052 — adds significant credibility to the bullish thesis.

Polkadot Weekly Chart
Polkadot (DOT) Bullish Looking Weekly Chart

Key Levels

  • Bullish Trigger (Daily): $4.169

  • Macro Pivotal Key-level: $4.052

  • Next Major Key-resistance & Primary Target: $4.958

  • Extended Resistance / Previous High: $5.40

  • Invalidation / Stop Zone: Below $3.54

From a technical perspective, these breakouts mark a transition from consolidation into trend expansion. This structural shift implies that DOT could be entering a new impulsive wave — supported by higher lows and increasing volume on breakout candles.

Price Action Outlook: Bulls Take the Steering Wheel

Price action confirms that the bulls are taking initiative. The current breakout is not just a wick rejection or low-volume anomaly — it’s supported by multiple closes above the key levels, rising momentum, and a pattern of higher lows stretching back to late June.

Importantly, trading volume has seen a mild uptick over the past few sessions, suggesting that accumulation is active and follow-through buying is in play. If price can hold above the $4.17 region, traders should expect progressive stair-step movements toward $4.95 and beyond.

On the weekly timeframe, the structure looks even more compelling: DOT is breaking a macro downtrend structure that began in late Q1. This could be the early ignition point for a larger cycle, especially if Bitcoin and the broader market continue to stabilize or grind higher.

Polkadot Ecosystem Update: Fueling the Fundamentals

Polkadot continues to innovate as the most mature Layer-0 interoperability platform in the Web3 ecosystem. Its relay chain and parachain architecture allows multiple blockchains to operate independently while sharing security and communicating across chains — a unique advantage in a multi-chain future.

Recent developments include:

  • Continued growth in parachain adoption: New projects are winning auction slots and building vertical-specific chains (e.g. gaming, DeFi, identity).

  • XCM (Cross-Consensus Messaging) Expansion: Improving composability between parachains and the broader Web3 universe.

  • Governance 2.0 rollout: Giving token holders more responsive and efficient control over the protocol.

This robust ecosystem development reinforces the idea that DOT is not just another altcoin, but rather, a foundational infrastructure layer for the evolving blockchain economy.

Conclusion: DOT Eyes $4.958 as New Bull Cycle Ignites

With both the Daily and Weekly resistance levels caving in, Polkadot is showing strong potential to rally toward $4.958, its next major target. If bulls can maintain price above $4.17, the setup remains clean and directional, with the macro target at $5.40 a longer-term objective.

Traders and investors should watch for continued strength and consolidation above the breakout zones. This is a pivotal moment in DOT’s technical landscape — and one that could mark the beginning of a broader trend shift in its favor.