EUR/USD Price Hits 1.1668 Breakout as BofA Eyes 1.17 Target by End of 2025

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

Bank of America has doubled down on its EUR/USD forecast, expecting the euro to hit 1.17 by the end of 2025. And that’s even as the bank expects two rate cuts from the European Central Bank, one in September and one in December, each 25 basis points. That would take the ECB’s terminal deposit rate to 1.50%, the end of the easing cycle.

Interestingly, BofA’s forecast isn’t just about short term policy easing. The bank also expects the ECB to reverse course in 2027, with two rate hikes in March and June, and the deposit rate back up to 2.00% by the end of the year. That long term policy roadmap, combined with underlying economic resilience, means the euro can be strong even during easing.

What really sets the euro apart right now, according to BofA, is its resilience against the dollar, particularly when benchmarked against short term US-EU rate differentials. The dollar’s vulnerability to policy uncertainty – including ambiguity around future Fed decisions – is fueling this strength.

EUR/USD Breaks 1.1668 Channel Top

BofA’s forecast is backed up by a solid technical breakout on the EUR/USD chart. On the 2 hour chart the pair broke above a descending channel and took out 1.1668 with conviction. That level, once a ceiling, is now a base for further upside, with the 50 period SMA at 1.1621.

Momentum is shifting fast. The RSI has surged past 66, but not yet overbought. There may still be room to run.

Key resistance levels now in play:

1.1720 – a horizontal level
1.1765 – the mid July high
1.1815 – the June high

If 1.1668 fails, look for support at 1.1621, 1.1581 and 1.1535. But for now, the trend is with the bulls.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Macro Tailwinds

Beyond the charts, the macro fundamentals are lining up with the bullish case. The US dollar is under pressure from cooling inflation and rising odds of rate cuts by Q4. The eurozone has dodged recession for now and consumer resilience and regional stability is showing through.

This is a great environment for a stronger euro – especially as investors reprice the risk premium on US assets amid political and monetary uncertainty.

If EUR/USD can take out 1.1720 it may open the door to 1.1815 and BofA’s 1.17 target sooner than expected. In short, the fundamentals and the technicals are saying the same thing: euro strength is just getting started.

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Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

WTI Crude Oil Stalls at $67.33—Breakout or Breakdown Ahead This Week?

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

WTI crude is stuck at $67.33, trading in a narrowing triangle. The market is struggling to find direction with mixed global signals. Price is capped below the descending trendline resistance at $68.81 and finding support above the 50 period SMA at $67.04.

The triangle is closing in, so a breakout is likely in the coming days. These patterns act as pressure cookers – when the breakout happens, it’s usually fast and directional. But without a fundamental catalyst, the breakout may lack conviction.

For now, crude is in wait and see mode, with buyers and sellers locked in a tug of war.

RSI Still in Balance

RSI is at 48.88, neither oversold nor overbought. Traders are holding off on big bets until a trend emerges.

Price is also close to the 50 SMA, now flatlining at $67.04. This level will be key to watch. Above it and the triangle remains bullish, below it and we could see downside towards $66.32 and $65.42.

Technically:

Resistance to watch: $68.81 and $69.61
Immediate support: $67.04 and $66.32
Triangle base support: $65.42 and $64.54

If price breaks above $68.81 with volume, it could be bullish towards $70.45. Below $66.32 and we could see $65-$64.50.

WTI Crude Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — WTI Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Macro Factors Keeping Bulls On Hold

Oil prices are caught in a macro tug of war. Geopolitical tensions and hopes for stimulus from China are supportive. But soft demand in Europe and high US inventories are capping prices.

The US dollar’s recent pullback has helped crude, but not enough to break out. Markets are also watching the August 1 tariff implementation date which could rekindle fears of trade disruptions – especially if US crude exports become collateral.Unless something big happens (OPEC+, trade, inventory) WTI will stay in a range. But if it breaks out of this triangle it will be fast.

Silver Price Eyes $39 as Gold Breaks Out—Can Bulls Ride the Dollar Weakness?

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

Silver (XAG/USD) is riding gold’s coattails as safe-haven demand increases with a weakening US dollar and rising trade tensions. It’s trading at $38.52 after bouncing off key Fibonacci levels, with renewed bullishness driven by macro and technical factors.

Gold’s move above $3,373 has set the tone for precious metals as investors hedge against dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. As we’ve seen in recent Reuters coverage, traders are getting cautious ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. If the US goes ahead with new tariffs on Chinese and European goods, silver (like gold) could see more inflows as investors seek protection from trade volatility.

Plus, slowing global growth and signs the Fed may not hike are supporting metals. With inflation softening and rate cut talk resurfacing, non-yielding assets like silver are still attractive. Silver also has the dual benefit of being a monetary and industrial metal, and with cooling Treasury yields and potential manufacturing resilience, it’s getting an extra boost.

Silver Technical Break Holds Above $38.46

On the technicals, silver has broken above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $38.46 and is now testing short-term resistance in a rising trend channel. The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $38.04 is still support. Price has respected the trendline from the $36.27 low, so the structure is still bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.61, so momentum is increasing. Not yet overbought, but approaching 70, a level that historically means short-term pullbacks or consolidation. But in strong trends, 70 often precedes continued rallies rather than immediate corrections—especially when the macro trend is a weakening dollar.

If bulls hold above $38.46, next targets are $39.13 and $40.00. Below $38.04 and it may retest the 38.2% and 50% Fibs at $38.04 and $37.70 respectively.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: $38.52, $39.13* Support: $38.04, $37.70, $37.36
RSI: 66.61 (bullish but getting overbought)

Silver Outlook: Bullish But Cautious

Silver’s short-term direction will be driven by macro headlines. If new tariffs are confirmed, safe-haven demand will increase and both gold and silver will rise. If the Fed is dovish and inflation is soft, it will be a tailwind for XAG/USD to go higher.

For now, traders are cautiously bullish. The technical break is holding, momentum is strong and the macro is supportive of more upside. But volume and follow-through above $38.52 will be key to sustain the rally to $39–$40.

Unless the dollar has a surprise comeback or the Fed turns hawkish, silver’s path of least resistance is up—at least for now.

Gold Price Breaks Out: $3,373 Level Reclaimed as Dollar Weakens, Rally Ahead?

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

Gold up as dollar softens and trade hopes build. Spot price breaks above $3,373, out of symmetrical triangle.

The dollar is the key here. After weeks of strength, it’s finally faltering as traders get cautious on US tariffs on China and Europe. As Reuters reports, traders are getting defensive and gold is benefiting from the safe-haven trade. This is what happens when gold and the dollar move inversely – when the dollar goes down, gold goes up.

Geopolitical jitters and lack of clarity on US trade policy are adding to the gold narrative. With the Fed on hold and inflation data mixed, gold’s case is getting stronger – especially as traders rotate out of risk.

Gold Technicals Point Up

From a chart perspective, gold breaking above the triangle is a trend reversal. Gold reclaimed the 50 period SMA, now acting as support at $3,343. Price action has gone from choppy range trading to bullish structure, $3,394 and $3,411 are the next resistance levels.

RSI is at 69.45, close to overbought but still in bull territory. An RSI above 70 can be a cooldown but this type of overbought can precede a big rally if backed by volume.

If price fails to hold above $3,373, look for pullbacks to $3,328 or $3,309. But with the momentum we have, dips will be seen as buying opportunities rather than a reversal.

Key levels to watch:

Resistance: $3,394 and $3,411
Support: $3,343 (SMA), $3,328, $3,309
RSI near 69: strong but not extreme

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

What to Expect This Week

Next week gold will be driven by macro. US trade negotiations, especially the August 1 tariff decision, will inject volatility into the market. A delay or escalation of tariffs will bring more safe-haven flows into gold and push price to $3,430 – a level not seen in weeks.

Watch out for upcoming economic data – durable goods orders and US GDP – which will impact the dollar and gold.

For now, gold’s technical breakout, a weakening dollar and geopolitical jitters set a bullish tone for the week. Short term dips will happen but the bigger picture remains constructive unless key support is broken.

Solana Surges 6.7%, Market Cap Reclaims $102.6B Amid ETF, Institutional Demand

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Arslan Butt

Solana (SOL) is back in the $100 billion club, hitting $102.6 billion on July 21. This comes after a 6.7% increase in market cap and 6.18% gain in SOL’s price, with the token peaking at $191.52 in the last 24 hours. The last time Solana was above this threshold was in January 2025 when it reached an all-time high of $293.31 and $117 billion market cap.

This is the first time in H2 2025 Solana has reached this valuation level, after a big recovery from earlier declines. SOL was above $100 billion in November 2024 before macroeconomic turbulence (Trump’s blanket tariffs) triggered a broad crypto market correction.

As of latest data, Solana is the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market cap, just $9 billion behind Binance Coin (BNB) and $40 billion ahead of USD Coin (USDC).

Institutional Demand Drives Rally

Much of Solana’s current momentum is due to institutional demand. A big catalyst has been the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, which offers staking rewards – a rarity among crypto ETFs. Since launch, the fund has had consistent weekly inflows and now has $99.7 million in assets.

The ETF’s design has attracted more financial institutions to view SOL as a long-term stakeable asset. And a new wave of entrants – SOL Strategy, DeFi Development Corp, and similar firms – have started buying SOL for staking and treasury diversification.

Key Metrics:

34.8% in the last month
25.7% in the last 2 weeks
6.7% in the last 24 hours
SOL is now at $191.29

The gains have restored market confidence in Solana’s price and long-term fundamentals.

Solana to Go Higher

Solana’s strength suggests it can go higher if institutional inflows continue and the broader market improves. With the REX-Osprey ETF near $100 million in assets and more treasury-backed crypto strategies participating, SOL may test its early year highs in the next few weeks.If this continues, $200 is a possibility. Solana’s DeFi infrastructure and staking is attracting capital in a recovering market.

Summary:

SOL at $102.6B, first in H2 2025
$191.29, 34.8% up in the last month
REX-Osprey ETF has $99.7M
#6 by market cap, behind BNB

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Posted on July 21, 2025 by Skerdian Meta

ASML Holding (ASML) Shows Signs of Pullback – Is the Rally Over?

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Konstantin Kaiser

ASML Holding (ASML) has delivered an extraordinary rally of approximately 206% over the past two years, reflecting strong investor confidence and bullish momentum. However, since peaking, the stock has entered a significant corrective phase, retracing nearly 48% from its highs over the past year — signaling a potential shift in trend dynamics and investor sentiment.

ASML Holding Rebounds Strongly from Golden Ratio Support

Following the correction that began in mid-2024, ASML Holding (ASML) retraced sharply to test a key confluence of technical support: the 50-month EMA aligned with the golden ratio level at $623. This zone held firmly, acting as a pivotal support from which the stock staged an impressive rebound of approximately 43%.

This bounce not only preserved the structural integrity of the long-term uptrend but also ensured the EMAs remained in a golden crossover configuration, reaffirming the bullish outlook on a macro time frame. Additionally, the MACD histogram has resumed an upward trajectory, indicating a recovery in momentum.

However, it is worth noting that the MACD lines remain bearishly crossed, and the RSI is currently positioned in neutral territory, suggesting that momentum remains mixed in the near term. As of this month, price action points to the onset of another corrective move, with a potential retest of the 50-month EMA support zone between $623 and $680 now in play.

ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Rejected Below Key Golden Ratio Resistance at $925

ASML Holding (ASML) has so far failed to reach the critical golden ratio resistance at $925, despite successfully breaking above the 50-week EMA resistance at $752 in previous sessions. However, recent price action has turned notably weaker: the MACD histogram has begun to tick bearishly lower since last week, signaling waning bullish momentum. That said, both the MACD lines and EMAs remain bullishly crossed, underscoring that the broader trend has not yet fully reversed.

Meanwhile, the RSI remains in neutral territory, offering no clear directional bias. Technically, this places ASML in a vulnerable spot, especially as the stock declined by 11.6% this week alone, now threatening to close back below the 50-week EMA at $752 — a level that had previously flipped to support.

If this breakdown confirms, ASML may extend its correction toward the 200-week EMA at $691, with further downside risk toward the golden ratio support at $623, which has proven to be a historically significant level.

ASML Stock Shows Mixed Signals on the Daily Chart

The daily chart for ASML Holding (ASML) presents a conflicting technical landscape. On the bullish side, the EMAs have recently formed a golden crossover, signaling continued strength in the short- to medium-term trend.

However, momentum indicators point to underlying weakness. Prior to the recent 11% drop, the RSI formed a bearish divergence, often a reliable precursor to sharp corrections. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are bearishly crossed, and the MACD histogram continues to tick lower, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum.

These mixed signals suggest that while the broader structure remains intact, caution is warranted in the short term as the stock digests recent volatility.

ASML Holding (ASML) Stock: Similar Outlook on the 4H Chart

The 4-hour chart reflects a continuation of the mixed technical signals seen on higher timeframes. The RSI has formed a bearish divergence, and the MACD remains firmly in bearish territory, both pointing to sustained downside momentum in the near term.

However, the EMAs continue to hold a golden crossover formation, suggesting that the broader short-term trend remains intact for now. Given the current setup, ASML appears poised to extend its downward trajectory, yet a technical rebound may occur near key support between $623 and $691 — a zone marked by long-term Fibonacci and EMA confluence.