Author: Arslan Butt

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

Elon Musk Launches $44B X Chat to Take on WhatsApp and Telegram

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Elon Musk is preparing to launch X Chat, a fully encrypted messaging app designed to challenge WhatsApp and Telegram. Speaking on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Musk confirmed that the app will roll out “within the next few months,” and emphasized its core mission: absolute privacy with no advertising hooks.

“On X, we just rebuilt the entire messaging stack into what’s called X Chat,” Musk explained. Unlike conventional messengers, he said, X Chat “won’t sell or share user data with advertisers.” The billionaire likened its encryption model to the Bitcoin blockchain, where security is built on decentralized principles rather than ad-driven data collection.

Musk criticized existing messaging platforms, claiming they often compromise privacy for profit. “If a service knows enough about what you’re texting to target ads, that’s a massive vulnerability,” he said, warning that such systems could expose users to potential data breaches.

WhatsApp’s Encryption Under Scrutiny

While WhatsApp asserts that all messages are end-to-end encrypted using the Signal Protocol, critics say the app still gathers significant metadata — such as contact frequency and chat timestamps — that can reveal personal communication patterns.

Moreover, backup copies of chats stored on cloud services are not automatically encrypted, creating another weak spot for potential privacy breaches.

Key privacy concerns with WhatsApp include:

  • Unencrypted metadata revealing chat frequency and contacts
  • Optional, not automatic, chat backup encryption
  • Data sharing with Meta subsidiaries under certain integrations

WhatsApp’s FAQ claims it does not “collect or sell data,” but admits to sharing select information with Meta to “improve and support” related services — a practice privacy advocates have long criticized.

X Chat to Set New Privacy Benchmark

Musk promises that X Chat will eliminate these vulnerabilities entirely. The system, he said, is being designed as a “fully encrypted” communications network, capable of supporting texting, file sharing, voice, and video calls without relying on any advertising or data-tracking framework.

“I’m not saying it’s perfect,” Musk added, “but our goal with X Chat is to make it the least insecure messaging system ever built.”

The app will launch both as an integrated feature within X (formerly Twitter) and as a standalone application for global users. If successful, it could mark a pivotal shift toward user-controlled communication — one where privacy, not profit, becomes the foundation of digital messaging.

Musk’s move also aligns with his broader $44 billion X platform vision: to transform it from a social media network into an all-in-one digital ecosystem for communication, finance, and media.

Coinbase Goes Big: $2B BVNK Buyout Sparks Stablecoin Shockwave#

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Coinbase Global Inc. is reportedly nearing a $2 billion acquisition of London-based stablecoin platform BVNK, signaling a significant expansion into digital payments infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, the deal is in advanced negotiations, with due diligence already underway. Insiders reveal that the transaction could close by late 2025 or early 2026, though terms remain subject to change.

By Q3 2025, USDC was generating nearly 20% of the company’s total income, mainly because of the nice little earner they were getting from their deal with Circle Internet Group, the people behind USDC. This partnership lets Coinbase get in on a bit of the action as Circle’s reserve assets start paying interest.

Not that they were slacking off either—they’d been working hard to get USDC into more of the places people use, like Shopify, so businesses can take crypto payments with next to no hassle. And in the meantime, they’d wrangled themselves some pretty sweet exclusive negotiating rights with BVNK after a pretty intense bidding battle, which only goes to show how far ahead of the game Coinbase is in the stablecoin stakes.

If completed, the BVNK buyout would be Coinbase’s largest fintech acquisition since its public debut, reflecting growing institutional confidence in stablecoins, blockchain-based assets pegged to fiat currencies.

Stablecoins Fuel Coinbase’s Growth

Stablecoins have rapidly evolved into one of Coinbase’s top-performing revenue streams. If Coinbase gets its hands on BVNK, it’ll gain access to a large merchant network, which should make cross-border bill settlement much easier and more efficient. And it’s all part of a bigger push – following on from their recent experiment with Citigroup using stablecoins to make corporate payments.

It was last month that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told lawmakers that the US crypto regulations bill was in the bag—90% of lawmakers were on the same page, and it was almost certain to pass before the year was out. And if the BVNK deal goes ahead as planned, it’ll be even clearer that Coinbase is leading the charge in all this regulated digital payments business, plugging the gap between old finance and new crypto networks worldwide.

Key highlights of Coinbase’s stablecoin expansion include:

  • 20% of quarterly revenue derived from stablecoins
  • Strategic partnership with Circle and Shopify integration
  • Exclusive acquisition rights for BVNK following competitive bids

This diversification strategy comes as the US enacts its first stablecoin regulatory framework, providing a clearer path to compliant growth.

BVNK Adds Merchant Network and Compliance Edge

Founded in 2021, BVNK has raised $90 million to date and quickly emerged as a fintech leader in crypto and stablecoin payments. Its infrastructure enables merchants to process both fiat and blockchain-based transactions with full regulatory compliance — a feature that makes it particularly attractive to institutional investors.

Coinbase’s acquisition would give it access to BVNK’s vast merchant network, streamlining cross-border settlements and improving payment efficiency. This follows a recent Coinbase–Citigroup pilot project exploring stablecoin-based corporate payments to modernize financial transfers between traditional and crypto accounts.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently told lawmakers that the long-anticipated US crypto market structure bill is “90% aligned” across party lines and likely to pass before year-end. If the BVNK deal closes as expected, it will position Coinbase at the forefront of regulated digital payments, bridging traditional finance and decentralized networks on a global scale.

Virtu Financial Reveals $63M XRP Stake Amid $260M Institutional Sell-Off

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Virtu Financial, a $7 billion Wall Street powerhouse, has finally let slip that it’s got a $63 million stash of XRP—a big deal that really underscores just how eager institutions are to get in on the digital asset action. This came out in a filing they’ve done with the US Securities and Exchange Commission—and makes it clear that, from September 30, 2025, on, they’ve got a direct stake in Ripple’s XRP, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Virtu, for those who may not know, has built a name for itself as a major player in trading and liquidity provision across equities, ETFs, and fixed income. But now they’re starting to put down a marker on the digital assets front – and it’s all coming at a time when interest in XRP-linked financial products is really taking off. One key milestone that’s helped grease the wheels for this is the Canary’s XRP ETF proposal, which has avoided a hold-up by the SEC—a move that’s sent a clear signal that mainstream adoption is on its way.

  • Virtu’s crypto exposure: XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum
  • Portfolio value: Over $7 billion, which is a pretty huge amount of assets
  • XRP position: $63 million – which they’ve now fessed up to in a recent SEC filing

As a result of all this, Virtu is now joining a pretty long list of Wall Street big-hitters who are dipping their toes into blockchain-backed assets following some pretty significant US regulatory clarifications on Ripple’s operations.

Whale Activity Suggests Time to Sell Up

Now, despite Virtu being pretty bullish, on-chain analysis from Glassnode suggests that big XRP whales have been cashing out in a big way. Since mid-August, XRP’s price has fallen 27%, from $3.30 to $2.40.

Over the same period, the long-term XRP holders—who’d been holding onto their stash since November 2024—have ramped up selling by a whopping 580%. According to Glassnode, daily sell volumes have shot up from $38 million to a massive $260 million, based on a seven-day moving average.

This tells us that early investors are taking the opportunity to pocket some profits, while the market redistributes. Analysts say that while all this selling creates some short-term volatility, it makes it easier for institutional players like Virtu to step in and scoop up XRP in the future.

Institutional Demand is Propping Up XRP

Yes, selling pressure is still strong – but — flow of new money into exchanges like Coinbase is telling a differeveryry. Data from Coinglass shows that over the past 12 hours, $23.93 million in fresh XRP has flowed in, a recent high that broadly aligns with the modest price gains we’ve seen.

To add to the optimism, Ripple-backed Evernorth has just expanded its XRP hoard to a new high of $1 billion—and that’s a big vote of confidence in the asset’s long-term prospects.

As of now, XRP is trading at $2.51. That’s a 3.17% jump in the past 24 hours – and a whole 21.22% hike year on year. Despite all the heavy selling, institutional buying, and clearer US regulations, XRP is firmly on the map.

Gold Weekly Forecast: $4,000 Support Holds as Traders Brace for Key US Data

Posted on by Arslan Butt

 [[Gold]] wrapped up the week near the $4,000 level on Friday. It’s a critical psychological level that has now become the battleground between bulls and bears. The metal’s steady tone triggered as the market participants digest a mixed set of US economic data.

Moreover, the market prepares for a packed week of employment and inflation indicators that could drive both the dollar and precious metals.

This week’s macro picture reflected a soft landing narrative and moderate resilience in consumer confidence. However, a weakness in housing and factory activity presents a different story.

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut to 4.00% from 4.25%, widely expected by markets, kept sentiment cautious yet stable. For gold, that meant holding ground amid shifting risk appetite and expectations that the Fed may stay on pause into early 2026.

Fundamental Recap: Fed’s Cautious Optimism

The latest economic readings underscored the uneven nature of the US recovery:

  • Richmond Manufacturing Index: Improved to -4 (forecast -11, prior –17), signaling a mild rebound but still contractionary.
  • CB Consumer Confidence: Posted 94.6, better than forecasts of 93.4 but below September’s 95.6 — households remain resilient but wary.
  • Pending Home Sales: Flat at 0.0%, missing expectations of +1.6% and down sharply from +4.2%, pointing to persistent housing weakness.

The US Fed’s rate decision and accompanying statement reinforced a balanced stance. It’s acknowledging easing inflation, however, it’s also warning of uneven growth.

Policymakers highlighted that while labor markets remain tight, higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing and manufacturing.

Overall, the tone supported the view that inflation is softening, but not enough for a clear policy pivot.

Economic Events Ahead: Data-Heavy Week Looms

The upcoming week is stacked with high-impact US data that could set the tone for gold’s next move. Traders will be watching for signs of labor market cooling and inflation stability — both critical to shaping the Fed’s next steps.

Key events to watch:

  • Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (prev. 49.1, forecast 49.4) — a reading above 50 could strengthen the dollar.
  • Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings expected at 7.21 million, steady from 7.23 million, testing labor demand.
  • Wednesday: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (+28K forecast) and ISM Services PMI (50.8 expected).
  • Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims and remarks from FOMC member Waller.
  • Friday: A triple set — Core PCE Price Index (+0.2%), Non-Farm Payrolls, and Unemployment Rate, capped by Michigan Consumer Sentiment (53.0) and Inflation Expectations.

Together, these releases will determine whether the Fed’s “soft landing” story survives or cracks under inflation and job-market surprises.

Gold Technical Outlook: Triangle Breakout on the Horizon

On the technical side, gold’s 4-hour chart shows a descending triangle pattern. Typically, such a pattern reflects compression before a likely breakout. The XAU/USD pair continues to respect the $4,000 support zone. That with the trendline from $4,380 acting as dynamic resistance.

The RSI near 49 remains neutral but hints at a bullish divergence, suggesting that momentum could soon shift upward.

Gold Technical Outlook
Gold Technical Outlook

In addition, closing of candles over $4,035 is likely to confirm a breakout, opening room for $4,155 and $4,245 targets. On the downside, a drop below $3,886 could accelerate selling toward $3,795 and $3,718.

Trade Setup for the Week:

  • Entry: Buy above $4,035 (breakout confirmation)
  • Stop-Loss: Below $3,886
  • Targets: $4,155 and $4,245
  • Alternative Setup: Short below $3,886, targeting $3,795 and $3,718

[[Gold-graph]]

Gold is coiling tightly within converging trendlines, awaiting a catalyst — and this week’s flood of US data might just be it. Traders should watch for confirmation candles before committing, as a breakout from this structure could define November’s price trajectory.

GBP/USD Outlook: UK House Prices Edge Up 2.4% in October as Pound Slides Toward $1.31

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The UK housing market showed modest strength in October, with annual house price growth rising to 2.4%, up slightly from 2.2% in September, according to Nationwide’s House Price Index. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3%, lifting the average home value to £272,226.

Nationwide’s Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the housing market has remained “broadly stable” despite slower consumer confidence and higher borrowing costs. “Prices are close to all-time highs, and mortgage rates are still more than double pre-pandemic levels,” he noted, adding that the market’s resilience reflects strong household balance sheets and limited housing supply.

If income growth continues to outpace house price inflation, Gardner expects affordability to improve modestly into early 2026, especially if the Bank of England resumes rate cuts.

Renovations Remain a Major Value Driver

Nationwide’s survey found kitchen and bathroom upgrades were the most popular home improvements in the past five years, with 71% of homeowners investing in these areas. Meanwhile, green upgrades—especially solar panels—are gaining traction, with 34% of renovators adding eco-friendly features.

Younger homeowners (25–34) led the sustainability charge, with nearly 70% opting for energy-efficient additions. Nationwide’s data also showed that adding a loft conversion or extension with a bedroom and bathroom can lift a property’s value by as much as 24%, while a 10% increase in total floor space typically raises value by 5%.

Pound Weakens as GBP/USD Tests $1.31

While housing shows signs of stability, the British pound is losing ground. The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3105, slipping within a descending channel that’s capped gains since mid-October. The 20-period EMA remains above current price levels, confirming the downtrend’s strength.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

A three black crows pattern on the 4-hour chart underscores bearish momentum, with the RSI near 27, suggesting an oversold but still fragile setup. A break below 1.3080 could open the door to 1.3030 and 1.2990, while resistance sits at 1.3160–1.3240.

For short-term traders, the bias remains bearish. Selling rallies below 1.3200 offers the best risk-reward scenario until momentum indicators or bullish candlesticks confirm a reversal.

GBP/USD Outlook: Market Calm, Currency Caution

The UK housing market continues to show quiet strength, but the pound’s technical picture reflects investor caution ahead of potential policy shifts. As traders monitor both BoE decisions and U.S. dollar strength, November could prove pivotal—both for homebuyers watching rates and for traders navigating sterling’s next major move.

EUR/USD Struggles Near 1.1550 as Inflation Cools, Fed Speeches Loom

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure around 1.1550, extending losses after a wave of mixed Eurozone data signaled weaker economic momentum across the bloc. Germany’s retail sales rose just 0.2% in October, missing expectations, while import prices improved modestly by 0.2% after months of decline.

Inflation readings offered little support. The Eurozone’s flash CPI slowed to 2.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI held steady at 2.4%, in line with forecasts. France’s preliminary CPI ticked up by 0.1%, and Italy’s fell –0.3%, showing that price pressures are easing unevenly across member states.

The muted data reinforced the view that the European Central Bank will maintain a cautious stance, balancing cooling inflation with stagnating growth. With the ECB holding its main refinancing rate at 2.15%, traders now look to the Federal Reserve speakers — including Logan, Bostic, and Hammack — for fresh cues on the dollar’s short-term direction.

EUR/USD Technical Setup: Euro Eyes 1.1500 Support

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD continues to respect its descending trendline from September highs, confirming the broader downtrend. The pair trades below the 20-period EMA, which has turned sharply lower near 1.1595, aligning with bearish momentum.

Recent sessions show a bearish engulfing candle followed by small-bodied Doji candles — a sign of market hesitation rather than reversal. The RSI hovers near 36, just above oversold territory, suggesting sellers remain in control but may face short-term exhaustion.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

If the euro holds below 1.1560, downside targets emerge at 1.1500 and 1.1450, key psychological and structural support levels. A sustained break below 1.1500 could open the door toward 1.1390. Conversely, a rebound above 1.1620 would be the first sign of a momentum shift, with resistance seen at 1.1665 and 1.1728.

EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Until Data Surprises

With Eurozone inflation cooling and the dollar supported by firm U.S. data, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD remains lower. Unless the upcoming FOMC remarks or U.S. PMI readings disappoint, the euro is likely to stay range-bound or test deeper support near 1.1450 before any recovery attempt.

Short-term traders may consider selling rallies below 1.1600, targeting 1.1450, while maintaining tight stops above 1.1625. A break below 1.1500 could extend bearish momentum into early November.

JSE 40 Eyes Breakout Above 102,800 ZAR as Rand Weakens and Traders Brace for November Volatility

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s FTSE All Share Index closed down a bit on Friday, losing 165 points (0.15%) to 109,504.78 ZAR. This move looks a lot like a broader trend of risk aversion, especially since the South African rand has been losing value against the US dollar. It’s weakest in nearly three months, which is only making investors more cautious ahead of key local data releases.

Market types are blaming the weakness on the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone, suggesting it might delay cutting interest rates, which has sent the dollar higher and caused a lot of money to flow out of emerging markets such as South Africa. The JSE Top 40 Index dropped 0.7%, dragged down by banks and mining stocks, while gold prices stayed steady near a three-month high amid investor concern and a search for a safe place to put their money.

Global Cues Shaping Investor Sentiment

The rand’s slide is due to a combination of domestic and global factors. Overses, investors reacted to a US-China rare-earth trade agreement, which is reigniting worries about supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, big US tech companies like Meta and Microsoft are taking a hit as markets are having second thoughts about the profitability of these giant AI projects.

However, some Asian markets are doing well after Amazon and Apple beat expectations in their earnings reports. That contrast really highlights the mixed global outlook right now – where there is some optimism, but it’s mixed in with a lot of caution about the potential for tighter money and trade risks to kick in.

JSE 40 Technical Outlook: Breakout in the Works

The South Africa JSE Top 40 Index (JSE40) is stuck in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which suggests it could breakout. The price action is a series of lower highs and higher lows, which is a good indicator that buyers and sellers are roughly balanced.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see a load of candles clustering near the triangle’s apex, with a pretty flat 20-period EMA around 102,450 ZAR, which isn’t giving us any clear momentum. We have a load of spinning tops and doji candles popping up, which is a sign that people are getting a bit mixed up. The RSI (47.7) has finally started moving up, a sign that bearish pressure is fading.

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

If the price breaks above 102,765 ZAR we could see a run up to 104,140 ZAR and then 105,060 ZAR. But if it drops below 101,260 ZAR it could drop all the way down to 99,950 ZAR.

Trade Setup:

  • Bullish bias: Good time to go long above 102,800 ZAR aiming for 104,100-105,000 ZAR.
  • Bearish bias: Good time to go short below 101,200 ZAR with targets near 99,950 ZAR.

Outlook for Early November

The JSE40 is coiled up tight within its triangle structure, which means volatility is waiting to kick in. As South Africa releases trade and inflation-linked bond data early next week, traders are just waiting for the breakout to confirm. With the rand under pressure and global risk sentiment all over the shop, the index’s next move could define its November trajectory —and right now, that’s one of the clearest trade setups we’ve had in weeks.

New York Freezes $63M in Multichain USDC as Singapore Liquidation Proceeds

Posted on by Arslan Butt

A Federal court in New York has just solidified a freeze on 63 million in USDC stablecoins that are tied to Multichain, the not-so-lucky cross-chain bridge that went under. This decision came after a request from the liquidators in Singapore – an interesting sign of things to come as far as cooperation between the US and Singaporean authorities is concerned – as they try to recover assets in what is already one of the biggest cross-border insolvency cases the crypto industry has ever seen.

District Court Judge David S. Jones of New York’s Southern District ordered Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, to keep those three Ethereum wallets on ice and ensure the matching dollar reserves are safe as well. That ruling – made under a section 1519 of the US Bankruptcy Code – effectively gives the court a provisional green light to make a move to prevent some really serious damage if those assets were to get let loose.

Key details of the ruling include:

  • Assets involved: $63 million in USDC stablecoins.
  • Court authority: Section 1519, Chapter 15 provisional relief.
  • Parties involved: Circle, KPMG Singapore, and Multichain’s liquidators.

The order temporarily halts any competing claims to the frozen assets while the US court reviews whether Singapore’s liquidation qualifies as a “foreign main proceeding” under Chapter 15, which governs cross-border insolvency cooperation.

Class Action Paused Amid Jurisdiction Review

The New York order also pauses a separate class action filed by US investors seeking control of the same frozen funds. That case was recently transferred from state court to the federal Southern District of New York, after Circle invoked the Class Action Fairness Act, which allows multi-jurisdictional disputes involving large classes to be heard in federal court.

Suppose Singapore manages to get its liquidation case up to Chapter 15 standards. In that case, it’ll mean that those liquidators will be officially permitted to go after Multichans assets worldwide under court supervision. Whether or not this ultimately works out is still to be seen – but one thing is for sure: this decision will be a major test of how well the two countries can work together on this case – or if they can at all – and prevent any potential asset hijinks or outright scams.

Decrypt reached out to Circle, Joel H. Levitin, Multichain’s US attorney, and the KPMG Singapore liquidators, though none had commented at the time of writing.

Multichain’s Fall from $9.2B to Collapse

Once a major cross-chain bridge connecting Binance Chain, Avalanche, Polygon, and Ethereum, Multichain (formerly Anyswap) allowed users to move tokens across blockchains by locking assets on one network and issuing equivalents on another.

At its 2022 peak, Multichain held $9.2 billion in total value locked, according to DeFiLlama. But the platform’s operations unraveled in May 2023, when transactions began freezing amid reports that CEO Zhaojun was detained in China.

By July 2023, roughly $125 million in assets were transferred from Multichain’s wallets to unknown addresses—what the company later called “abnormal transactions.” The incident forced a complete shutdown, triggering investigations across multiple jurisdictions and now, a high-profile US-Singapore legal collaboration to recover remaining funds.

Canary Capital’s XRP ETF Eyes Nov. 13 Launch Following SEC S-1 Update

Posted on by Arslan Butt

In a significant boost for Ripple’s ecosystem, Canary Capital has now filed an updated S-1 registration for the long-awaited spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) it’s been working on for ages. It’s removed a key “delaying amendment” that had previously blocked the automatic approval process. This means the product is now in position to launch on November 13th – all being well, of course, with final Nasdaq clearance and SEC review.

The updated filing actually mirrors the success Canary’s had with Solana (SOL) and Hedera (HBAR) ETFs—both of which really started to pick up traction once similar procedural updates were put in place. By taking out that delaying amendment, the XRP ETF is now good to go and can become auto-effective within 20 days of the filing being made—a timeline that’s got the crypto folk and ETF watchers as excited as a kid on Christmas morning.

A few key points to take away from the filing are

  • They’ve removed that “delaying amendment,” so things can now move much faster.
  • The launch timeline still looks on track for November 13th—or at least that’s the plan if Nasdaq gives it the all-clear.
  • There’s a risk that U.S. government operations delay the SEC’s processing.

Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terret reckons the timing could be brought forward a bit if the SEC can review the ETF without any dramas. On the other hand, if they get any feedback, that’s going to slow things down.

XRP’s Institutional Appeal on the Rise

Canary’s move follows the strong market performance of the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF, launched six weeks ago and already surpassing $100 million in assets under management. Although it’s structured under the ’40 Act framework, it’s viewed as a pretty big deal—the first “spot” XRP ETF in the market.

Canary’s proposed product could capitalize on the same enthusiasm. Bloomberg’s senior ETF strategist Eric Balchunas has given it the thumbs up as “strategically timed” saying the firm’s been able to keep the momentum going with its previous ETF launches which has got to be a bonus.

People watching the market expect that making ETFs more accessible could boost XRP’s price, potentially reaching $10 if institutional demand continues through Q4 2025.

Bitwise Predicts a Billion-Dollar Inflow

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, an XRP ETF “could easily become a billion-dollar fund within months”. He’s noted that XRP has a large and loyal following among investors, unlike some other assets. In a DL News interview, Hougan noted that despite the doubters about Ripple’s history, the asset’s robust ecosystem has put it on the map for mainstream financial adoption.

Last October, there were around 20 XRP ETFs under review by the SEC—XRP was just behind Bitcoin and Solana, with 23 each, and Ethereum had 16 filed, according to data from Bloomberg’s Balchunas.

If approved on schedule, Canary Capital’s XRP ETF could be another big marker in the growing convergence of digital assets and Wall Street investment products, which will keep reshaping institutional exposure to crypto.

Crypto Market Braces for $16B Options Expiry as 10x Research Shorts ETH

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The crypto market got slammed this week with a big drop in value for BTC, ETH, and the big-name altcoins. That wiped out almost $200 billion from the total market valuation – a staggering loss. And the impact wasn’t just on prices : over $1.2 billion in long positions got wiped out on the big exchanges as investors panicked out of positions .

The real reason behind the slide is the massive $16 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry in October – that’s the major driver of things over the short-term. Trading activity has gone into overdrive on the CME and Deribit exchanges , with institutional investors scrambling to rebalance their portfolios at a time when cash is tight and risk attitudes are changing.

Bitcoin Options Snapshot

  • 123,000 BTC options, worth $13.52 billion, are expiring today.
  • Put-call ratio: 0.70, with max pain at $114,000, suggesting a mild bullish bias.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the put/call ratio rose to 1.35, signaling increased downside hedging.

Despite short-term caution, traders expect a potential rebound if Bitcoin holds the $112,000 support, as options data show a concentration of calls expiring in the money.

Ethereum Faces Heavier Pressure

Ethereum’s setup appears more fragile. Around 642,000 ETH options, valued at $2.5 billion, are also expiring today. The put-call ratio at 0.68 has turned bearish, with put volume nearly doubling to 209,000 contracts within 24 hours.

Key derivatives data highlight growing defensive positioning:

  • Max pain point: $4,100, above the current $3,836 spot level.
  • Open interest: concentrated at the $4,000 and $3,600 strikes.
  • Rising put exposure indicates traders hedging for November weakness.

The bearish tone reflects waning institutional confidence in Ethereum amid ongoing ETF outflows and liquidity constraints.

Fed Policy and Macro Backdrop

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady near 99.50 during Friday’s Asian session despite hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed’s 10–2 vote to cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.75%–4.00% range underscored internal division, with Governor Stephen Miran favoring a deeper cut and Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 71% probability of another rate cut in December, up from 66% a day earlier. However, Powell noted the ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates data assessment, delaying further policy adjustments.

Trade optimism offered a mild offset after Trump and Xi’s meeting, where the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% from 57%. At the same time, China pledged to limit fentanyl exports and expand U.S. agricultural purchases.

Analyst Outlook: Bitcoin Resilient, Ethereum at Risk

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin’s volatility spike signals potential upside catalysts ahead, while Ethereum’s market structure remains fragile. Analyst Markus Thielen recommends short exposure on ETH, noting the fading appeal of its “digital treasury” narrative and weakening institutional support.

He adds that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are now driven less by macro liquidity and more by actual capital flows, making derivatives positioning and institutional sentiment the dominant forces shaping November’s crypto landscape.