Author: Arslan Butt

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: $71 Holds as Bulls Eye $76 After Sharp Pullback

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Silver prices (XAG/USD) opened up in the European session trading around the $71.86 level, holding steady after a pretty sharp pullback from that recent high of $82.00. Despite the correction, silver is still one of the top performers among the precious metals this year & is benefiting from a combination of the US monetary policy easing up and the ongoing global uncertainty.

Like gold, silver is also getting a boost from the expectations that the Federal Reserve might keep cutting interest rates right on into 2026. When the yields are low, the non-yielding assets generally do better, and silver has been following that script pretty closely – even if you do see some short-term ups and downs.

The geopolitical risks are still very much part of the background, with the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the strained relationship between the US and Venezuela keeping that safe-haven demand in place – even though silver’s industrial exposure adds a bit of a layer on top of global growth expectations.

Fed Outlook and Macro Risks Shape Demand

The Federal Reserve’s 25-point rate cut, bringing the rates down to 3.50%-3.75%, just reinforced the view that policymakers are much more comfortable with inflationary trends than they were. However, there’s still division within the FOMC, suggesting the path ahead won’t be smooth.

According to CME FedWatch, the chances of a rate cut in January have now slipped to around 15%, trimming near-term optimism. Even so, the overall easing trend remains very supportive of metals.

At the same time, the CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which can prompt traders to take profits in the short term. In that sense, that’s actually what helped explain the recent pullback from the $82 level, rather than signaling a reversal of the trend.

Silver Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, silver is still in good shape. On the 4-hour chart, the price is actually holding up within a rising channel with the lower trend line providing a bit of a buffer around the $71.00 – $71.50 level. The recent candles do show long lower wicks, which is a sign that buyers are stepping in when the price dips.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Fibonacci retracement levels do highlight this current balance:

  • 50% retracement: $72.36 is still acting a bit like a near-term pivot point
  • 61.8% retracement: $69.62 is a bit of a downside safety net
  • 200-day EMA: around $67.72, which just reinforces the fact that the bigger trend is still quite bullish

The momentum has cooled off but hasn’t broken yet, and the RSI has stabilized in the low 50s, a sign of consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. The price structure looks a bit like a short-term triangle is forming within the bigger bullish move.

Short Term Levels and Trade Setup

If silver can stay above $71.00, we could see momentum pick up again and reach the $75.00-$76.00 level. If we see a sustained break below $69.60, it would weaken the bullish case and push us to deeper support.

Trade idea: Buy near $71.00, target $75.00-$76.00, stop below $69.60.

Gold Surges 65% in 2025, But $4,256 Support Now Defines the Next Move

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Gold prices went into reverse gear after an absolutely astonishing rally that catapulted XAU/USD to $4350 earlier this week. The metal is still up a whopping 65% in 2025, which has got to be the strongest annual performance since 1979. But the momentum has slowed down significantly.

The earlier surge was largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve would follow up with even more interest rate cuts in 2026, which would continue to put real yields under pressure and keep gold as a safe-haven investment very much in the picture. On top of that, geopolitical risk also loomed large, with tensions between Israel and Iran and renewed strain between the US and Venezuela spooking investors into seeking safer assets.

Fed Policy Keeps Gold in Focus

The Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut, which lowered rates to 3.50% to 3.75%, only reinforced gold’s long-term appeal, even though Fed officials remain divided about what to do next. The December meeting minutes made it clear that most are open to more easing if inflation really starts to slow.

But, it looks like the market is now downplaying the chances of an immediate rate cut in January – the CME FedWatch now says there’s only about a 15% chance of it happening, which has definitely cooled some of the near-term enthusiasm and contributed to gold’s recent price pullback.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Geopolitics Support, Margins Cap Upside

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is still providing a solid floor under prices, but the upside is getting more balanced.

Some of the key headwinds are:

  • Higher CME margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which are making it more expensive to hold positions
  • Profit-taking after those record highs
  • Reports that we might actually be seeing some progress towards a peace deal in Ukraine, which could reduce the demand for safe-haven assets

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Levels Now Matter More

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 4-hour chart, gold is currently trading at about $4317, down from the $4550 peak. Price has dropped below the rising channel midline and also below the 50-period EMA, while the 200-period EMA at $4256 is acting as a critical support level at the moment.

The pullback is lining up with the 38.2% / 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, and the RSI is at 38, which is still pretty bearish without being oversold. If we stay above $4256, then the bigger trend remains intact. A break below would open up $4180.

JSE Top 40 Holds 108,000 as Rand Rallies 12% and Gold Lifts Miners

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The South African JSE Top 40 Index is currently trading at around 108,400 – not far off it’s recent highs. The rand is doing its part to prop up the market, holding strong at around 16.6650 to the US dollar. That’s a pretty impressive 12% gain so far this year, the best we’ve seen since 2009. So far, so good, in terms of inflation control, government finances, and precious metal prices.

Rand at 16.66 Still a Driving Force Behind Equity Support

A strong rand – at 16.6650 – is continuing to drive the market higher, mainly on better-than-expected inflation control, some decent progress on the fiscal front so far this year, and, of course, firm precious metal prices. The US dollar has had a rough time, down around 9% this year so far, mainly due to expectations of US interest rate cuts and growing concerns about the country’s budget deficit.

All of this has made South African assets attractive to offshore investors, particularly those keen on the country’s big-cap stocks, especially those with international revenue streams.

Gold and Platinum Prices Lift Mining Stocks

It’s not just the rand that’s helping support the market – gold and platinum prices have also been on the rise, which has been a real boost for some of the country’s biggest mining stocks. A weaker dollar tends to push up the price of precious metals, so this trend has been a welcome one for investors in mining stocks on the JSE. As a result, gains in these shares have offset some of the losses elsewhere in the market, keeping the overall index fairly resilient despite some mixed signals from around the world.

Budget Deficit Widens to 14.99bn Rand

But, of course, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. The budget deficit has just come in at 14.99 billion rand in November, a sharp increase on the 4.46 billion rand it was last year. This is naturally raising concerns about borrowing needs & interest costs, especially for sectors like banks and state-linked companies that are sensitive to this.

Still, equity investors are willing to look past these short-term fiscal worries as long as the rand stays strong and commodity prices keep rising.

JSE Top 40 Technical Outlook – Near 108,000

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

From a purely technical perspective, the index is looking fairly positive at the moment. On the 2-hour chart, the price is still stuck inside a rising channel, with a good run of higher highs and higher lows since November.

The recent pullback from 110,300-110,400 stalled out around 108,300-108,400, roughly in line with the 50-period EMA. Candlesticks suggest hesitation rather than real distribution – and the RSI did take a dip towards the low-40s before turning back up again.

As long as the index stays above 108,000, a bounce back up to 109,400 and a retest of 110,300 is still very much on the cards. If we see a sustained break below 107,150, though, that would be the first sign that the momentum is shifting.

Cypherpunk Technologies Expands ZEC Holdings with $29M Purchase as Zcash Eyes $600 Breakout

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Nasdaq-listed Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) has shown that it is serious about the privacy sector by buying a lot of Zcash [[ZEC/USD]] tokens for $29 million. This shows that more institutions are trusting cryptocurrencies that protect privacy. ZEC is now trading above $525, but it has dropped 2.5% in the last 24 hours as it tests a key technical resistance zone.

Cypherpunk Technologies Expands ZEC Holdings with $29M Purchase as Zcash Eyes $600 Breakout
Zcash price analysis

Zcash’s Institutional Accumulation Accelerates

Winklevoss Capital-backed digital asset treasury business bought 56,418 ZEC at an average price of $514 per token. This brought its total holdings to 290,062.67 ZEC, or about 1.76% of the token’s circulation supply. This deliberate accumulation is part of a big goal to get 5% of ZEC’s total supply, which will put the company at the head of the privacy cryptocurrency movement.

Will McEvoy, the CIO of Cypherpunk, remarked, “We are well positioned for a market that is repricing the societal importance of privacy.” This statement shows the company’s broader goal. The company, which changed its name from Leap Therapeutics to Leap Therapeutics in November, has seen its stock price rise by around 170% since then. It is now selling at around $1.18, which shows that investors are excited about digital assets that focus on privacy.

Privacy Coin Narrative Drives ZEC’s 800% Gains in a 2025

Zcash has been quite strong in 2025, rising more than 800% from about $58 a year ago to about $536. This is a lot better than Bitcoin, which has dropped about 5% over the same time. The privacy-focused blockchain, which started as a Bitcoin fork in 2016, uses zero-knowledge proofs to confirm transactions without giving away the sender, receiver, or transaction data. This feature is getting more attention as people become more worried about government surveillance and the loss of digital privacy.

Important people in the sector have noticed. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, said on Monday that ZEC might be getting ready to climb toward $1,000. He said this was because Federal Reserve funding methods might make zero-knowledge technology more liquid. Other crypto experts agree with him that privacy tokens are becoming more important as AI technology and digital surveillance improve.

Alex Bornstein, the executive director of the Zcash Foundation, says that the asset’s rise is due to natural demand caused by growing concerns about government overreach. This means that the surge is based on real market concern rather than speculation.

ZEC/USD Technical Analysis: Critical Resistance Test Ahead

From a technical point of view, ZEC is currently testing major resistance near $550 after bouncing off the support level of an ascending triangle pattern that has formed over the past few weeks. This bullish continuation pattern looks like accumulation and could mean more higher if resistance breaks.

If ZEC makes a clear move over $550, it will probably go up to $600, where it will face its next significant resistance zone at $616. If the momentum keeps up, the token might reach the $728 mark and then go for its all-time high. The Relative Strength Index is still above neutral, which shows that the market is still going up. However, the Stochastic Oscillator is now in overbought zone, which usually means that the market will consolidate or pull back in the short term.

But not all analysts are as hopeful. Eric Van Tassel said that a retreat to $400 is still feasible, especially if ZEC doesn’t break through the current resistance levels. If the lower edge of the ascending triangle breaks, bears might send prices down to the $375 support zone.

[[ZEC/USD-graph]]

 

Zcash Price Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown?

The next several sessions will be very important for ZEC’s path. Bulls need to stay above $550 for a while to confirm breakout momentum. If they can’t break through this level, they might take profits and test lower support zones. Zcash seems to be in a good position to take advantage of macro tailwinds as institutional support grows and privacy concerns rise around the world. This is only true if technical resistance gives way to buying pressure.

XRP Supply Hits 8-Year Low as Whale Accumulation Defies Market Exodus

Posted on by Arslan Butt

XRP [[XRP/USD]] is trading at about $1.87, which is about the same as it was 24 hours ago. Its supply dynamics show that it is very strong, though. Market watchers think that the digital asset has settled into a key technical zone that might affect its path through 2026. Several elements coming together signal that the groundwork is being created for a possible supply-shock rally.

XRP Supply Hits 8-Year Low as Whale Accumulation Defies Market Exodus
XRP price analysis

XRP Exchange Supply Plummets to 2018 Levels, Signaling Accumulation Phase

The most important shift in XRP’s market structure is the huge drop in the number of tokens held on exchanges. Glassnode data shows that XRP balances on exchanges have dropped to about 1.6 billion tokens as of late December, down from 3.76 billion on October 8. This is a shocking drop of 2.16 billion tokens in less than three months. This is the lowest amount of supply on the exchange since August 2018, which is a technical setting that has historically come before big price increases.

The dip happened at the same time as record-breaking outflows from exchanges. On October 19, the net position change among exchanges fell by 1.4 billion XRP, the greatest single-day spike in the asset’s history. When there are big outflows like this, it usually means that institutional players and big holders are buying a lot of tokens and putting them in cold storage or investment vehicles instead of making them available for rapid sale.

Market expert Skipper said that new ETF products are actively taking XRP off of exchanges, which changes the way the asset’s price is discovered. As 2026 goes on, XRP will solidify its standing as an institutional-grade digital asset thanks to this tightening of supply and the increased use of XRP by institutions.

Divergent Fund Flows Reveal Shifting Investor Preferences

Bitcoin and Ethereum have had a lot of problems, but XRP has been a big winner in terms of investment flow. The most recent CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows report says that investment vehicles linked to XRP brought in $70.2 million in new money last week. This brings the total amount of money that has come in since the US ETF debuts in mid-October to almost $1.07 billion.

This is very different from the push on larger assets to leave. During the same time, Bitcoin-focused products saw about $443 million in redemptions, while Ethereum saw $59.5 million leave. Since the middle of October, Bitcoin has lost nearly $2.8 billion in total, while Ethereum has lost about $1.6 billion. The fact that most of these redemptions happened in the US shows that investors are deliberately changing their positions, moving money away from established assets and into choice alternatives like XRP.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: Triple-Bottom Formation at Key Support

From a technical point of view, XRP is staying above a key demand zone between $1.60 and $1.84 that has been a reliable support level since 2025. The most important support level is $1.78, where Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows that investors bought 1.87 billion tokens. This shows that a lot of people are interested in buying.

Analysts say that the current market movement has created what they call a possible triple-bottom pattern on the weekly timescale. If XRP stays above $1.78 and bounces back from this area, technical estimates say the breakout goal is $3.79, which is more than 100% higher than where it is now.

Long-term momentum indicators are showing unusual signals that support this bullish situation. The Stochastic RSI on the three-week interval has dropped to 0.00, which is the lowest level it has ever been at. This happened only once previously, at the worst of the bear market in 2022. When this indicator hit zero in the last cycle, it was followed by a long accumulation phase that set the stage for XRP’s next big rise.

Also, chart pattern research has found that the current market structure is very similar to the one from 2016 to 2017. In both times, there was a protracted ABC correction phase preceding big rallies. If this historical fractal keeps going, XRP may be close to the conclusion of its correction phase, which would set it up for the next big upward move.

[[XRP/USD-graph]]

 

XRP Price Prediction: Structural Setup Favors 2026 Recovery

It looks like XRP is set up for a big comeback in 2026 because of the way supply-side dynamics, fund flows, and technical indicators are all coming together. There is a strong case for upward potential because of the combination of exchange balances at an eight-year low, steady ETF inflows of over $1 billion, and prices staying above important support levels.

If XRP stays above $1.78 and can handle the current selling pressure, it could test resistance at $2.50–$3.00 in the first half of 2026. But if a supply shock happens as institutional demand rises and exchange balances keep falling, the triple-bottom breakout goal of $3.79 becomes more and more likely.

The main risk to this view is that it could break below the $1.78 support level. This would remove a lot of price support and could lead to a worse decline. However, because of the historically low supply of exchanges and the steady accumulation of institutional investors shown in fund flow data, it seems that downside risk is structurally restricted at current levels.

Ethereum’s “Stealth Bull” Emerges: Record 8.7M Smart Contracts and $2B Staking Queue Signal 2026 Resurgence

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Ethereum [[ETH/USD]] is trading above $2,900, which is 1.8% more than it was 24 hours ago. But the actual drama is happening beneath the surface. Even while prices are still stuck in a limited range, on-chain indicators show that more institutions are using the platform and developers are becoming more confident. This might lead to a big surge in 2025.

Ethereum’s "Stealth Bull" Emerges: Record 8.7M Smart Contracts and $2B Staking Queue Signal 2026 Resurgence
Ethereum price analysis

Record Smart Contract Deployment Signals Developer Confidence

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Ethereum network quietly reached an amazing milestone: it deployed 8.7 million new smart contracts, which is the most ever and far more than any prior record. Token Terminal says that this rise is due to natural growth in three main areas: tokenizing real-world assets, building infrastructure for stablecoins, and developing core protocols.

This number is very important since deploying a contract is usually a good sign of what will happen on the network in the future. In the past, more smart contracts being made has led to more users, higher transaction fees, and more value being seized by validators. The analytics platform said that Ethereum is establishing itself as the “global settlement layer.” This role could become more important if traditional finance moves on-chain.

ETH Supply Dynamics Shift in Favor of Bulls

The most interesting thing that has happened is the huge change in how Ethereum’s supply works. Exchange balances are going down at the quickest rate of this market cycle, and capital inflows are finally going up for the first time in six months. There are currently 745,000 ETH waiting to be staked and about 360,000 ETH waiting to go. This is a strong holder conviction ratio of almost 2:1.

CryptoQuant says that the 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta has dropped to neutral territory, which means that aggressive selling pressure is going away. This drop in supply is happening while demand signals are stronger, which could be a good sign for patient investors.

Institutions Accumulate Despite Weak Price Action

Institutional positioning shows that smart investors are increasing their exposure during this period of consolidation. BlackRock’s ETHA spot Ethereum ETF has drawn a lot of interest from institutions. There are 486 long positions and only one short position, which shows that institutions are more confident in Ethereum’s medium-term future than they are in the short term.

Trend Research, on the other hand, added 46,000 ETH to their holdings in just one day, raising their total to 626,000 ETH. This kind of buildup during sideways price movement is typical of savvy money getting ready for expected moves.

ETH/USD Technical Picture: Compression Before Expansion

From a technical point of view, Ethereum is still stuck in a range close below the mid-Bollinger Band at $2,980. The Relative Strength Index shows that the market is moving in a neutral direction, while the MACD indicator says that the market is not sure what to do in the near future. But the support zone between $2,800 and $2,900 has held up after being tested many times, creating a strong floor.

This phase of compression, along with lower volatility, generally comes before big movements in one direction or the other. A strong break above the $3,100 resistance level or a close above the upper Bollinger Band are two critical things to monitor. These might lead to momentum-based purchasing.

[[ETH/USD-graph]]

 

Ethereum’s Dominance in Key Growth Sectors

Ethereum is still the most important player in important growth areas that provide long-term value. The network has more than half of the $307 billion stablecoin market. Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC make up most of the supply. RedStone researchers have named Ethereum the “institutional standard” for tokenization projects because of its security, deep liquidity, and existing infrastructure.

Ethereum’s real-world asset tokenization is worth around $19 billion, which is far more than other chains. As traditional finance looks more and more at blockchain-based settlement infrastructure, this leadership role in tokenization could become quite important.

Ethereum Price Outlook: Foundation for Breakout Being Built

Even if the price movement right now suggests that Ethereum will stay between $2,800 and $3,100, the fact that record development activity is happening, supply dynamics are becoming better, and institutional investors are buying more Ethereum says that the coin is getting ready for a big rise up.

The $3,100 and $3,500 levels are two important resistance levels to keep an eye on. If the price stays above these levels and the market stays strong, it might go back to the $4,000-$4,200 range. If Ethereum doesn’t hold the $2,800 support, it could test deeper support near $2,600.

Bitcoin Holds Above $88,000 as Mixed Signals Cloud Q1 2026 Outlook

Posted on by Arslan Butt

At the time of writing, Bitcoin [[BTC/USD]] is trading above $88,000, which represents a small gain of 1.6% over the last 24 hours. However, the top cryptocurrency is at a very key point right now since it is having trouble getting back to the psychologically important $90,000 mark. Technical and mood indicators are giving contradictory signals for the year ahead.

Bitcoin Holds Above $88,000 as Mixed Signals Cloud Q1 2026 Outlook
Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin’s Social Sentiment Flashes Contrarian Warning Signal

As 2025 comes to a close, new data from analytics company Santiment shows a big change in how people feel about retail. For the first time in a few weeks, social media volume tracking both Bitcoin-related phrases and sentiment indicators shows that bullish comments are outperforming pessimistic ones. In particular, comments that include “higher” and “above” have increased compared to “lower” and “below,” which shows that retail traders are becoming more positive.

But this change could, in a strange way, be a hint that the market is going down. Over the past three months, historical trends show that Bitcoin tends to move against what most people think will happen. For example, price rebounds often happen after surges in pessimistic sentiment, and local tops often happen when there is a lot of greed. The recent rise in positive mood, albeit not very high, shows that traders should be careful as they ring in the New Year.

In addition to the neutral prognosis, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn points out that Bitcoin returns have stayed the same across all significant trading sessions in the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. This consistency shows that no one geographic demography is generating momentum, and market activity is “neutral across the board.”

BTC Supply in Profit Metric Points to Potential Q1 Recovery

Axel Adler, an on-chain analyst, sees an interesting structural change that could lead to a new bullish trend in early 2026, even though things are murky right now. Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit indicator has dropped drastically from its peak in October, when it was over 19 million BTC, to about 13.5 million BTC after the price adjustment from all-time highs.

This drop made the 30-day and 90-day moving averages quite far apart, by over 1.75 million BTC. The 30-day average seems to have found a local bottom in mid-December, which is very important, and it is now stabilizing. Adler’s forecast model, which looks at how these moving averages are getting closer to each other, says that a bullish cross could happen between the end of February and the beginning of March, as long as prices stay where they are.

The convergence is getting smaller, with about 28,000 BTC every day, mostly because the highest values from October are no longer in the 90-day computation frame. But this argument is still quite sensitive to price changes. If supply elasticity is 1.3x, a 10% drop in price would cause Supply in Profit to drop by 13%. The important mark is $70,000. If the price stays below this level for a long time, the bullish convergence scenario is likely to fail, and there is a chance of a long correction like the one that happened in 2022.

BTC/USD Technical Picture: Resistance Overhead, Support Holding

Bitcoin’s immediate fight is in the $88,000 to $90,000 range from a technical point of view. BTC broke out of a downward channel with resistance at $87,300 and has since regained ground above its 100-hour simple moving average. It has also established firm support at $86,700.

There are definite levels of resistance along the way. The first is $88,900, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop. Then come $89,500, $90,200, and finally $91,200–$91,500. A strong break above $90,000 would mean that bulls are back in charge and could perhaps lead to challenging previous highs.

On the other hand, not keeping present levels puts you at risk of going down. $87,500, $86,700, and $85,500 are important support levels, while $85,000 is a key line in the sand. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are still above, showing that the negative trend structure has been in place since the price broke down from $100,000 to $105,000.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

 

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Cautious Optimism for Q1 2026

  • Near-term target (January 2026): $85,000-$92,000 range-bound trading
  • Q1 2026 target: $95,000-$105,000 if bullish cross materializes
  • Bear case: Breakdown below $85,000 targets $70,000-$75,000

Daily Crypto Signals: Ethereum Hits Record Contract Deployment, XRP Exchange Supply Hits 8-Year Lows

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Ethereum [[ETH/USD]] has achieved a historic milestone with 8.7 million smart contracts deployed in the final quarter of 2025, signaling its cementing role as the global settlement layer for tokenized assets. Simultaneously, XRP’s [[XRP/USD]] exchange supply has plummeted to levels not seen since 2018, creating a massive liquidity crunch as institutional ETFs aggressively accumulate the asset ahead of 2026.

Daily Crypto Signals: Ethereum Hits Record Contract Deployment, XRP Exchange Supply Hits 8-Year Lows
Latest crypto market news

Crypto Market Developments: Macro Strains and Institutional Foundations

The global cryptocurrency industry is approaching 2026 with a strong combination of unstable macroeconomic conditions and a major change in how institutions use cryptocurrencies. Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook says that the “four-year cycle” that has been linked to Bitcoin halvings may be coming to a stop. Instead, there may be a long-term bull market driven by fundamental demand. Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, says that as government debt and fiscal deficits grow, more and more investors see “scarce digital commodities” like Bitcoin [[BTC/USD]] and Ethereum as important ways to protect themselves against the devaluation of fiat currency.

This week’s news from Iran was a clear example of this store-of-value story. The national rial fell to a historic low of 1.4 million per U.S. dollar, a huge drop from just 70 per dollar in the 1980s. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called Bitcoin a “lifeboat” for those whose investments are disappearing because of bad economic management. This was said during protests in Tehran. The governor of the Central Bank of Iran has stepped down because of pressure, but this shows how useful borderless digital assets can be in places where inflation is out of control.

On the institutional side, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, which is its first tokenized money market fund, recently reached a milestone by paying out a total of $100 million in dividends. This milestone, made possible by the Securitize platform, shows that tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) may provide on-chain returns that can grow and stay legal. As traditional finance gets more involved with blockchain, progress on regulations is still inconsistent. The “Digital Asset Basic Act” in South Korea has been put on hold until 2026 because the Financial Services Commission and the Bank of Korea can’t agree on stablecoin legislation. Even though it has been delayed, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is still determined to create a stablecoin ecosystem underpinned by the won to defend the country’s monetary sovereignty.

Ethereum (ETH): The Institutional Settlement Layer

[[ETH/USD-graph]]

 

Ethereum’s network health has never been better, even though prices have been moving slowly for a while. According to Token Terminal, the number of new smart contracts made and published on the Ethereum blockchain reached an all-time high of 8.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. This rise is due to natural growth from a huge increase in stablecoin activity and the tokenization of real-world assets. Analysts call Ethereum the “institutional standard” since it has more than half of the world’s $307 billion in circulating stablecoins. Major financial institutions that want to use complicated on-chain apps usually use this network since it has a lot of liquidity and a strong security system.

Ethereum is currently moving through an important support-turned-resistance zone near $3,000. The Oct. 10 market liquidation event stopped the surge toward the previous all-time high of $5,000 for a short period, but the record-breaking contract deployment is seen as a “leading indicator” of how much the network will be used and how much it will cost in the future. As rollups and Layer-2 solutions grow, the base layer’s job as a finality and settlement engine is becoming more and more important. Many observers think that this increase in developer activity will eventually lead to higher prices as the demand for ETH to pay for “block space” grows along with the release of new institutional-grade products.

XRP Supply Shocks and ETF Drains

[[XRP/USD-graph]]

 

XRP is currently going through a “supply shock” that might shape its path through 2026. According to data from Glassnode, the amount of XRP held on centralized exchanges has plummeted to about 1.6 billion tokens, which is the lowest level since August 2018. This means that exchange balances have dropped by 45% in just the last 60 days. This huge outflow into private custody and institutional investment products shows that key holders don’t want to sell. The emergence of spot XRP ETFs is speeding up the drain on liquidity. Since they came out, they have brought in more than $1.15 billion in total, which keeps taking supply off the open market.

XRP is doing a good job of protecting a big demand zone on the charts that runs from $1.60 to $1.84. According to “UTXO realized price distribution” data, technical analysts say that the $1.78 level is the most important area of institutional support, where almost 1.87 billion tokens were recently bought. A lot of traders think that if XRP can hold this floor, it will break out of a “triple-bottom” pattern on the weekly timescale, with a price target of $3.79. As liquidity gets tighter and more institutions start using XRP for cross-border payments, it is ready to go from being a speculative asset to being a key part of the global financial system.

USD/JPY Slides From 157.80 as BoJ Signals 2026 Hikes, Eyes 156 Pivot

Posted on by Arslan Butt

USD/JPY dipped back towards the 155.85 to 156 zone in the European session and retraced some of the gains it had made near 156.30. This move was in response to the Japanese yen getting more support. A few Bank of Japan officials made a point that interest rates in Japan are still pretty low compared with what they need to be & suggested that they should keep raising them at a gentle pace until 2026.

The BoJ’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in December wasn’t a huge surprise, but the way the officials explained why they were doing it is what matters. They reckoned that Japan’s labour market was tightening, and that wages and prices were changing in a way that called for further tightening.

Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that inflation is now closer to the 2% target, which is making the case for more rate hikes.

Fed Caution Keeps Dollar in Check

Back in the States, the dollar wasnt making much headway. The Dollar Index was stuck around 98 as markets awaited the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. At the end of December, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to bring the range down to 3.50-3.75% and signalled that it expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. They actually pencilled in just one cut for 2026 after cutting three times in 2025.

This contrast between the BoJ tightening up and the Fed being pretty cautious has narrowed the policy gap that was actually supporting the USD/JPY pair early on in the year. This has actually led to an increase in demand for the yen, especially when US data is looking a bit softer or there isnt much appetite for risk.

USD/JPY Technical Picture: Consolidation Phase

If you look at the technical picture for USD/JPY on the 4-hour chart, it’s currently trading around 156 after a pretty sharp rejection from the 157.70-157.80 level. More recent candlesticks show smaller bodies and fairly mixed wicks, which suggests that market participants are a bit uncertain and not committing to anything.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Some key technical stuff to keep an eye on is:

  • The rising trendline from early December is still intact.
  • The 50-day EMA (exponential moving average) is hovering around 156, which is acting as a bit of short-term support for now.
  • The 200-day EMA is below at 155.55, reinforcing the overall technical structure.
  • There is key horizontal support at the 155.50 level with a deeper base at 154.50
  • There is resistance coming in at 156.75, and then if that’s broken, a stronger level of resistance at 157.75

The RSI (relative strength index) is stuck in the 45-50 range, reflecting a pretty neutral momentum right now with room to go either way. Price compression between trend support and resistance levels can break out in a particular direction once the market shows some volatility.

What Traders Are Watching Next

The traders are in the hands of the central banks for now. The FOMC minutes could add some short-term volatility to USD/JPY, but the overall trend will depend on whether the BoJ follows through with additional rate hikes in 2026.

Trade Idea: If you see a confirmed break above 156.75, you could look to buy, targeting 157.75, with a stop-loss below 155.80.

GBP/USD Holds $1.35 as 25bp BoE Cut Fuels Bullish Breakout Setup

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The British pound is holding steady around $1.3510 during the European session, building on modest gains against the US dollar as investors try to wrap their heads around the latest guidance from the Bank of England. Although the BoE did go ahead and cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% back in December, officials went out of their way to temper expectations of aggressive easing coming down the pipe.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey made it clear that any future rate cuts would be pretty slow and data-dependent, which has helped soothe market nerves about a sharp slowdown in the UK economy. As a result, traders now think there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see another cut in the first half of the year – with a 50% probability of a second move by year-end. That cautious stance has actually helped the pound outperform its peers, even as the possibility of further rate cuts remains on the table.

Fed Rate Expectations Weighing on Dollar Strength

Over in the States, the US dollar is still getting a bit of a soft time as markets look ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes, due out later today. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in December has kept speculation alive that we might see more easing in 2026 – especially if inflation keeps cooling and labour market conditions start to soften.

While Fed officials have been pretty coy about committing to a clear timeline, traders are still quite sensitive to any hints of a softer policy path. Trading is also pretty thin right now ahead of the New Year holidays, which is limiting volatility – and keeping GBP/USD stuck in a pretty narrow range despite the shifting rate expectations.

GBP/USD Technical Picture Still Looks Constructive

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is just sort of consolidating around $1.3500 on the 4-hour chart after that strong rally from the late-November lows. The recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with mixed wicks, suggesting the momentum is slowing rather than any renewed selling pressure.

The price is still trading within a rising channel, and is being supported by an upward-sloping trendline that has been guiding the move higher for a few weeks now.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key technical levels to keep an eye on:

  • 50-EMA support: around $1.3455
  • 200-EMA support: about $1.3405
  • Horizontal support: $1.3470, then $1.3400
  • Immediate resistance: $1.3535
  • Next upside target: $1.3600

The RSI is still near 55, suggesting the momentum is still pretty mild without getting stretched out of control. While no clear triangle breakout has formed yet, the tightening price action near resistance suggests a directional move might be around the corner once volume picks up.

What Traders Are Watching Out For Next

Given that UK policy guidance is helping stabilize sterling and US rate expectations are putting pressure on the dollar, GBP/USD remains highly sensitive to any incoming signals from central banks.

  • BoE messaging on growth and inflation
  • FOMC minutes for any clues on 2026 rates
  • Breakout behaviour above $1.3535

Trade idea: If we get a confirmed break above $1.3535, then we’re looking to buy up to $1.3600, with a stop-loss below $1.3470.