Author: Arslan Butt

AngloGold Ashanti plc (JSE: ANG) up 5.58% to ZAR 89,364 as the stock continues to break out. The company was named a preliminary addition to four major FTSE Russell U.S. indexes—including the Russell 1000®, 2000®, 3000®, and Midcap®. Official inclusion will be effective after U.S. markets close on June 27, 2025 and trading will begin June 30.

This is a big deal for AngloGold’s visibility among global institutional investors, especially after the NYSE primary listing in September 2023. CEO Alberto Calderón called it a “milestone” to support long term shareholder value.

Why this matters:

• Over $10.6 trillion is benchmarked to Russell indexes
• The reconstitution is expected to trigger $53 billion in trading flows
• Inclusion increases liquidity and exposure for ANG stock

AngloGold Ashanti plc (JSE: ANG) Technical Setup Signals Upside Continuation

On the charts, AngloGold is in a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. After bouncing off support at ZAR 79,323 price action accelerated with a strong bullish engulfing candle that broke the 50-period EMA at ZAR 81,294.

ANG is now testing a major horizontal and channel resistance at ZAR 89,667 after a confirmed breakout above ZAR 86,030 with the MACD showing widening momentum and bullish crossover—strong buy conviction.

Technical Trade Setup:

• Entry: Above ZAR 89,667 (confirmed breakout)
• Stop-loss: ZAR 86,000 (below last swing high)
• Target 1: ZAR 91,934
• Target 2: ZAR 94,153
• Momentum: MACD rising, no bearish divergence detected

Wait for volume and candle closes near resistance before entering new positions. A confirmed breakout could be a multi-week trend continuation.

Gold and Rand Fundamentals Support

This technical strength is supported by the macro environment. Gold is still high on a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions especially around Israel-Iran and US tariff rhetoric. As a safe-haven asset gold is seeing buying back.The rand also strengthened 0.2% to 17.7150/USD on June 12 ahead of local mining data. A stronger rand can be a headwind for exporters like AngloGold but investors are focused on growth and inflows rather than currency risk.

AngloGold Ashanti is at the sweet spot of technical and institutional momentum.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (JSE: CPI) fell 0.21% to ZAR 347,151 on Thursday, in line with the broader market rather than company specific weakness. The pullback is in line with the concerns around the South African mining sector, with Stats SA to release April numbers tomorrow showing a expected 4.3% year on year decline. That would be a bigger decline than March’s 2.8% and would put pressure on overall economic growth.

Investors are cautious. The South African 2035 bond yield is up slightly to 10.11% as the economic uncertainty continues. Lower mining output can impact loan demand and credit quality – areas that are key to Capitec’s consumer banking business.

But Capitec’s fundamentals are still solid. The stock is consolidating above the 50 period EMA and a rising trendline on the 4 hour chart, a key technical support level.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd Support Holds, But Momentum Fades

Technically Capitec is at a crossroads. A failed breakout above ZAR 357,694 has led to a pullback and the stock is testing the ZAR 347,113 EMA and ZAR 345,038 trendline. A rejection candle at the highs suggests buyer fatigue.

The MACD is showing a bearish crossover and momentum is fading. If ZAR 345,038 breaks, next supports are at ZAR 337,538 and ZAR 330,194. A bounce could take CPI to ZAR 357,694 and possibly ZAR 366,288.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd Trade Setup:

• Entry: Long above ZAR 350,000 or short below ZAR 345,000
• Stop-loss: ZAR 343,000
• Target 1: ZAR 357,600
• Target 2: ZAR 366,000
• Risk: Moderate; confirmation needed via MACD or price action

Macro Will Help Capitec

Despite the short term dip, the broader indicators are looking up. The JSE All Share Index is above 96,000 points as consumer activity is picking up. Q1 GDP growth was 0.1% but the OECD is forecasting 1.3% for 2025.

Key signs of economic improvement:

• New car sales up 21% YoY in May* Consumer spending up 3% YoY in Q1 2025
• Foreign capital inflows as USD weakens

Strategists like Izak Odendaal think falling global rates and infrastructure reforms will help the economy. Capitec with its retail presence will benefit from easing credit and rising consumption.

For now CPI is at a crossroads. A move above or below the ZAR 345,000-ZAR 350,000 zone will decide its short term direction.

The JSE Top 40 Index fell to 88,600 ZAR on Friday, down from a recent high of 89,331 ZAR. The decline comes as geopolitical tensions rise after Israeli airstrikes in the Middle East and investors flock to safety globally. The rand had been strong in recent weeks after the budget impasse was resolved and inflation expectations came down, but the outlook has deteriorated sharply. Oil prices have risen again and that’s putting pressure on South African equities.

South Africa’s 2035 government bond yield jumped 16.5 basis points to 10.25%. There was no major domestic data on Friday but next week’s inflation and retail sales numbers may influence the market.

Growth Stagnates, Joblessness Rises

The South African economy is still underperforming. GDP grew 0.1% in Q1 2025, not enough to match population growth, so effectively stagnant. Unemployment rose to 32.9% and broader labour underutilisation to 43.1%. These numbers are structural issues.

• B-BBEE policies are socially important but controversial among investors.
• The informal sector employs millions but relies on a failing formal economy.
• MIP fintech data suggests real economic activity may be understated.

These challenges erode private sector confidence and limit job creation, so South Africa is lagging its emerging market peers.

Comparisons Show Policy Gaps

South Africa’s stagnation is stark compared to countries like Singapore, whose GDP grew from $300 billion in 2013 to $500 billion in 2024. South Africa’s economy has only grown to $403 billion over the same period.

• Singapore’s growth is due to policy flexibility and pro-business reforms.
• South Africa’s labour laws and regulatory uncertainty discourage investment.
• Capital is flowing to markets with a clear growth story.

Without bold structural reforms, South Africa will underperform further.

JSE Top 40 Technical Analysis: Support Holds

The JSE Top 40 Index is at the 50-day EMA of 88,676 ZAR and the ascending trendline from June 4. Momentum is fading and the MACD is bearish. A break of 88,554 could see 88,050 and 87,612.8 next. To get back to bullish the index needs to close above 89,331. Until then the technicals are weak against the macro and geopolitical backdrop.