Author: Maham Arslan

Ripple’s token, XRP, dropped to nine-month lows near $1.59 in early February 2026 as a bearish chart pattern broke down. This article looks at how Ripple’s billion-token escrow unlock and recent high-volume liquidations are affecting the XRP Ledger.

The XRP token plummeted more than 5% in a 24-hour window on February 1–2, 2026, marking a sharp rejection from the $1.80 psychological floor. This article examines the convergence of technical breakdowns and fundamental supply shocks, specifically the routine but high-impact monthly escrow release, which has left XRP struggling to maintain its footing above $1.50. The current sell-off underscores how structural technical patterns can override long-term utility narratives during periods of extreme market fear.

Key Takeaways

• Price Collapse: XRP hit approximately $1.59 on February 2, 2026, a significant drop from January peaks above $2.00, confirming a breakdown from a long-term descending triangle.
• Escrow Pressure: Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP on February 1, 2026. While roughly 800 million were re-locked, the net supply increase added liquidity into a “risk-off” market environment.
• Network Resilience: Despite price weakness, XRPL daily transactions hit 1.9 million, and Real-World Asset (RWA) TVL on the ledger reached a record $235 million.
• Sentiment Shift: The Fear & Greed Index for XRP has plunged to 14 (Extreme Fear), reflecting broader altcoin underperformance against Bitcoin.

XRP’s Spectacular Breakdown Amid the Market Turmoil

As the wider crypto market lost $220 billion in value, XRP also saw a major technical change. In early February 2026, its price fell below the $1.81 support, which had held since late 2025. The price dropped to $1.5290 before settling near $1.59, causing many leveraged traders to be liquidated.

This crash shows a widening gap between XRP’s real-world use and its market price. Even though Ripple got new regulatory approvals in Dubai and Singapore this year, the price is still stuck in a bearish trend that has blocked any recovery since mid-2025.

What Caused the Wipeout in XRP Price: Top 4 Reasons

The primary catalyst for XRP’s recent decline was the technical resolution of a months-long consolidation phase. However, secondary fundamental factors amplified the volatility:

1. Descending Triangle Resolution: The price breached the horizontal floor at $1.81. In technical analysis, this breakdown often leads to a “measured move” downside, targeting the next liquidity pools near $1.28.
2. Monthly Escrow Inflation: The release of 1 billion tokens on February 1 reminded the market of the ongoing supply expansion. Even with the standard re-locking of most tokens, the optics during a bearish week triggered pre-emptive selling.
3. ETF Outflows: After a period of institutional hype, spot XRP ETFs saw a net outflow of $41 million in late January, suggesting that “smart money” is temporarily rotating into safer yields or gold.
4. Death Cross Positioning: The price has remained stuck below the 200-day SMA ($2.35) and 100-day EMA ($2.22), creating a heavy “ceiling” that discourages new buyers from entering until a trend reversal is confirmed.

XRP Price Forecast: Why the Downtrend Still Matters Near $1.60

Looking at the charts, XRP/USD shows signs of a continued downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping toward 35, which means the asset is getting close to being oversold, but sellers still have the upper hand.

XRP is now trading in a narrow range between $1.55 and $1.65. The price shows strong selling at both the start and end of each session.

• Support: The nearest support is at $1.50, with a stronger level at $1.28.
• Resistance: Any bounce will likely meet selling at $1.71 and again at $1.81, which is now resistance.
• Indicator Check: The MACD histogram is still negative, but if XRP stays above $1.50 this week, there are early signs of a possible hidden bullish divergence.

Trade Idea: You might consider a short position if XRP bounces to $1.70, aiming for a target of $1.30 and setting a stop-loss above $1.85.

Bottom Line: Utility Growth vs. Technical Gravity

The early February 2026 drop in XRP shows that real-world adoption, such as the Ripple Treasury launch, often takes time to affect prices. Even though XRPL activity is high, the fading $3.00 price target has made XRP a high-volatility sentiment play. Investors should watch escrow re-locks and ETF flows to see if $1.60 is a long-term buying opportunity or just a stop before another drop to $1.00.

XRP is trading near $1.88, attempting to stabilize after weeks of steady pressure from a clearly defined descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. Recent candles between $1.85 and $1.88 show long lower wicks and smaller real bodies, a classic sign that buyers are stepping in on dips rather than chasing higher prices. Still, recovery attempts remain limited, with XRP unable to reclaim the 50-EMA, keeping short-term control in sellers’ hands.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Structure Still Defines the Trend

From a broader perspective, XRP continues to print lower highs after failing near $2.35, forming a well-contained bearish channel. The decisive break below $2.01, a former horizontal support, marked a clear shift in momentum and turned that area into resistance.

For now, the $1.92–$1.95 zone acts as a ceiling for any bounce. Below current levels, attention turns to $1.80, a psychological and technical support. If that level gives way, downside risk extends toward $1.73, where prior demand previously slowed selling pressure.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: Momentum Signals Caution, Not Panic

Momentum indicators reflect the same cautious tone. The RSI near 40 points to weakening demand but stops short of oversold territory. This suggests selling pressure is controlled rather than aggressive. A sustained break above the descending trendline and reclaim of the $2.01–$2.05 zone would be needed to meaningfully shift sentiment.

Key levels to watch

• Resistance: $1.92–$1.95, then $2.05
• Support: $1.80, followed by $1.73
• Trend bias: Bearish below the trendline
• Momentum: Weak, not oversold

Trade idea: Sell rallies near $1.95, target $1.80, stop above $2.05.

XRP is trading near $1.91 as of January 24, 2026, showing early signs of stabilization after a volatile start to the year. The token is up roughly 0.4% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume holding above $2 bn, signaling that participation remains active even as momentum cools. With a market capitalization of $116.5 bn, XRP continues to rank among the five largest digital assets globally.

While price has pulled back nearly 19% from January highs, this move looks more like consolidation than capitulation. Market sentiment has turned cautious amid delays in US crypto legislation and broader risk-off positioning, but structural demand has not disappeared.

Market Caution Meets Institutional Patience

Short-term pressure has emerged as Washington debates around market structure bills stall in Senate committees. That uncertainty has muted speculative inflows across major tokens, XRP included. Still, institutional framing around XRP remains intact. Ripple leadership continues to emphasize long-term adoption, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse reiterating expectations for new crypto all-time highs in 2026, driven by tokenization and enterprise-grade infrastructure.

Recent discussions at Davos highlighted XRP Ledger’s role in handling trillions in tokenized value, reinforcing its positioning beyond retail trading cycles.

XRPL Usage and Supply Dynamics Matter

XRP’s fundamentals continue to quietly strengthen. The XRP Ledger processes 1.5–1.8 mn transactions daily, with settlement finality measured in seconds and average fees below $0.0002. Unlike inflationary networks, XRP’s supply is fixed at 100 bn, with roughly 60.85 bn in circulation. Transaction fees are burned, and reserves are locked across wallets, liquidity pools, and institutional products, creating gradual supply compression over time.

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin expansion, including recent exchange listings and XRPL integration, adds another layer of utility that indirectly supports XRP demand.

XRP/USD Technical Structure Shows Compression, Not Breakdown

From a technical perspective, XRP remains range-bound but stable. Price is holding above the $1.88–$1.90 support zone, an area repeatedly defended by buyers. On lower timeframes, XRP trades within a descending channel, capped by a trendline near $1.96. Momentum indicators are neutral, with RSI hovering near 50, reflecting balance rather than trend exhaustion.

A sustained break above $1.96–$2.03 would signal structural repair and reopen upside toward the $2.10–$2.20 zone.

What to Watch Next

• Regulatory clarity in the US
• RLUSD adoption and XRPL DeFi growth
• Price behavior around the $1.90 support base

Trade idea: Buy a confirmed breakout above $1.96, target $2.08, stop below $1.88.

XRP is still going strong at just over $1.90, as it continues to weather a rough patch that’s knocked the token down by over 13% in the last week. Despite the drop, XRP still manages to come in at number five overall on the crypto leaderboard with a market cap of around $115.7 billion – that’s a lot of XRP in circulation, with 60.8 billion tokens out there now.

Trading activity is still pretty hot, with 24-hour volume over $3.4 billion – that’s a big deal and suggests traders are still really active in the market and not in a rush to get out of their positions. But the bigger picture is looking pretty fragile, with a sag in both Bitcoin and Ethereum keeping investors on the back foot and making them even more cautious.

Fundamentals are Still Looking Up Despite the Current Price Slump

On the surface, the short-term picture for XRP looks pretty gloomy – but it’s a bit of a different story when you look at the bigger picture. Ripple President Monica Long recently touted 2026 as the year crypto really starts to take off, suggesting we can expect more institutions to come on board, real-world use cases to develop, and a big upswing in tokenized assets.

Ripple’s ecosystem is still expanding, with all sorts of interesting developments around XRP ETFs, institutional investors growing more interested in the token, and the RLUSD stablecoin hitting a nice milestone of $1 billion in market cap. But the market still isn’t buying any of this, and instead is focused on the here and now – ie, macro risk, softer ETF demand, and a general feeling of unease in the markets.

So what’s driving sentiment right now? Well, here are a few key things:

• XRP is still a key player in the world of payments, and a lot of people in the industry are watching it
• Despite all the doom and gloom in the short term, there are still people who think long-term adoption is a real possibility.
• The market is currently saying that fundamentals aren’t enough to carry things on their own and need a price boost to really take off.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: A Descending Channel Keeps the Bears in Charge

Now, let’s take a look at the technicals on the XRP/USD chart. On the 4-hour chart, price is stuck in a pretty clear descending channel, and after a little rejection at the $2.30 mark earlier in the month, price has actually slipped below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages – and that’s not a good sign. Those moving averages are now capping any attempts at a rebound near the $2.05-$2.10 mark.

Looking at recent candlesticks, we can see that they’re pretty bearish, with smaller candles starting to form after some pretty strong bearish ones – but downside momentum still hasn’t really started to ease up yet. And on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) front, price is hovering pretty close to oversold territory – which usually means we’re due for a bounce. But does it mean we’re ready to turn the corner and go the other way? Not yet, at least.

So what are the key levels to keep an eye on then?

• If price drops further: look out for the $1.86 and then $1.78 (where the Fibonacci overlap comes in)
• If price decides to go back up, we’ll be looking at $1.95, $2.06, and $2.13 as key resistance levels.

Trading idea? Well, for now, sell rallies below $1.95 and target $1.80, but be prepared to stop out if the price goes above $2.06.

XRP has entered a more fragile phase after losing the $2 level, a price zone that has repeatedly shaped trader behavior. After briefly pushing above $2.35, the rally faded fast, and the breakdown below $2 marked a clear shift in structure. XRP now trades near $1.93, with price struggling to regain momentum and participation thinning across spot markets.

The $2 handle has acted as more than just technical support. It has been a psychological anchor for holders, and when it fails, selling pressure tends to accelerate. Recent sessions showed this pattern again, with volume down roughly 22% day over day, suggesting buyers are stepping back rather than defending levels aggressively.

On-Chain Data Echoes 2022 Stress Signals

According to Glassnode, XRP’s current cost-basis structure closely resembles early 2022, a period that preceded a sharp drawdown. Each revisit of the $2 zone has triggered heavy realized losses, ranging from $500 mn to as much as $1.2 bn per week. That behavior points to reactive selling rather than planned rotation.

A key concern is the imbalance between holder cohorts:

• Short-term holders are accumulating below the cost basis of mid-term holders
• This increases pressure on investors sitting on unrealized losses
• Similar setups in 2022 led to aggressive distribution phases

Back then, XRP fell from around $0.80 to near $0.30 as confidence unraveled. While conditions are not identical, the stress pattern is familiar.

Whales and Derivatives Add to Downside Risk

Whale activity has yet to provide relief. Glassnode data shows net whale flows remain negative, averaging about $20 mn in daily outflows. While the pace of selling has slowed, it has not flipped to accumulation.

Derivatives markets are also flashing caution. Data from CoinGlass shows total XRP futures open interest fell 4% to $3.42 bn in 24 hours. Long liquidations continue to outpace shorts, signaling forced exits rather than confident positioning.

Several analysts have flagged downside risk. Peter Brandt and Ali Martinez warn that a failure to hold $1.80 could expose XRP to a deeper slide. CrediBULL Crypto sees tactical dip-buying opportunities but stresses strict risk control due to thin liquidity.

XRP/USD Technical Levels That Define the Path Forward

From a chart perspective, XRP remains capped below a descending trendline, with resistance clustered near $2.02–$2.05. The 50- and 200-period moving averages are flattening, reinforcing the lack of trend direction. RSI near 45 reflects neutral momentum rather than a reversal signal.

Support sits at $1.92, followed by $1.87 and $1.81. A close below these levels would tilt risk lower. To shift sentiment, bulls need a sustained move above the trendline with volume confirmation.

Until then, XRP’s outlook into 2026 remains defensive, shaped by on-chain stress, cautious derivatives positioning, and fragile confidence around the $2 level.