Author: Maham Arslan

XRP is still going strong at just over $1.90, as it continues to weather a rough patch that’s knocked the token down by over 13% in the last week. Despite the drop, XRP still manages to come in at number five overall on the crypto leaderboard with a market cap of around $115.7 billion – that’s a lot of XRP in circulation, with 60.8 billion tokens out there now.

Trading activity is still pretty hot, with 24-hour volume over $3.4 billion – that’s a big deal and suggests traders are still really active in the market and not in a rush to get out of their positions. But the bigger picture is looking pretty fragile, with a sag in both Bitcoin and Ethereum keeping investors on the back foot and making them even more cautious.

Fundamentals are Still Looking Up Despite the Current Price Slump

On the surface, the short-term picture for XRP looks pretty gloomy – but it’s a bit of a different story when you look at the bigger picture. Ripple President Monica Long recently touted 2026 as the year crypto really starts to take off, suggesting we can expect more institutions to come on board, real-world use cases to develop, and a big upswing in tokenized assets.

Ripple’s ecosystem is still expanding, with all sorts of interesting developments around XRP ETFs, institutional investors growing more interested in the token, and the RLUSD stablecoin hitting a nice milestone of $1 billion in market cap. But the market still isn’t buying any of this, and instead is focused on the here and now – ie, macro risk, softer ETF demand, and a general feeling of unease in the markets.

So what’s driving sentiment right now? Well, here are a few key things:

• XRP is still a key player in the world of payments, and a lot of people in the industry are watching it
• Despite all the doom and gloom in the short term, there are still people who think long-term adoption is a real possibility.
• The market is currently saying that fundamentals aren’t enough to carry things on their own and need a price boost to really take off.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: A Descending Channel Keeps the Bears in Charge

Now, let’s take a look at the technicals on the XRP/USD chart. On the 4-hour chart, price is stuck in a pretty clear descending channel, and after a little rejection at the $2.30 mark earlier in the month, price has actually slipped below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages – and that’s not a good sign. Those moving averages are now capping any attempts at a rebound near the $2.05-$2.10 mark.

Looking at recent candlesticks, we can see that they’re pretty bearish, with smaller candles starting to form after some pretty strong bearish ones – but downside momentum still hasn’t really started to ease up yet. And on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) front, price is hovering pretty close to oversold territory – which usually means we’re due for a bounce. But does it mean we’re ready to turn the corner and go the other way? Not yet, at least.

So what are the key levels to keep an eye on then?

• If price drops further: look out for the $1.86 and then $1.78 (where the Fibonacci overlap comes in)
• If price decides to go back up, we’ll be looking at $1.95, $2.06, and $2.13 as key resistance levels.

Trading idea? Well, for now, sell rallies below $1.95 and target $1.80, but be prepared to stop out if the price goes above $2.06.

XRP has entered a more fragile phase after losing the $2 level, a price zone that has repeatedly shaped trader behavior. After briefly pushing above $2.35, the rally faded fast, and the breakdown below $2 marked a clear shift in structure. XRP now trades near $1.93, with price struggling to regain momentum and participation thinning across spot markets.

The $2 handle has acted as more than just technical support. It has been a psychological anchor for holders, and when it fails, selling pressure tends to accelerate. Recent sessions showed this pattern again, with volume down roughly 22% day over day, suggesting buyers are stepping back rather than defending levels aggressively.

On-Chain Data Echoes 2022 Stress Signals

According to Glassnode, XRP’s current cost-basis structure closely resembles early 2022, a period that preceded a sharp drawdown. Each revisit of the $2 zone has triggered heavy realized losses, ranging from $500 mn to as much as $1.2 bn per week. That behavior points to reactive selling rather than planned rotation.

A key concern is the imbalance between holder cohorts:

• Short-term holders are accumulating below the cost basis of mid-term holders
• This increases pressure on investors sitting on unrealized losses
• Similar setups in 2022 led to aggressive distribution phases

Back then, XRP fell from around $0.80 to near $0.30 as confidence unraveled. While conditions are not identical, the stress pattern is familiar.

Whales and Derivatives Add to Downside Risk

Whale activity has yet to provide relief. Glassnode data shows net whale flows remain negative, averaging about $20 mn in daily outflows. While the pace of selling has slowed, it has not flipped to accumulation.

Derivatives markets are also flashing caution. Data from CoinGlass shows total XRP futures open interest fell 4% to $3.42 bn in 24 hours. Long liquidations continue to outpace shorts, signaling forced exits rather than confident positioning.

Several analysts have flagged downside risk. Peter Brandt and Ali Martinez warn that a failure to hold $1.80 could expose XRP to a deeper slide. CrediBULL Crypto sees tactical dip-buying opportunities but stresses strict risk control due to thin liquidity.

XRP/USD Technical Levels That Define the Path Forward

From a chart perspective, XRP remains capped below a descending trendline, with resistance clustered near $2.02–$2.05. The 50- and 200-period moving averages are flattening, reinforcing the lack of trend direction. RSI near 45 reflects neutral momentum rather than a reversal signal.

Support sits at $1.92, followed by $1.87 and $1.81. A close below these levels would tilt risk lower. To shift sentiment, bulls need a sustained move above the trendline with volume confirmation.

Until then, XRP’s outlook into 2026 remains defensive, shaped by on-chain stress, cautious derivatives positioning, and fragile confidence around the $2 level.

XRP is trading around $2.06, down about 2.2% in the last 24 hours, as broader crypto markets digest macro headwinds. Despite short-term pressure, XRP remains up over 16% year-to-date, outperforming Bitcoin in several sessions. Its market cap stands near $125 billion, ranking it #5 among cryptocurrencies, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $2.6 billion.

ETF momentum continues to reshape XRP’s institutional profile. Since launching in November 2025, spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows, with 35 consecutive days of net gains before a minor $40.8M outflow on Jan 7. That streak outpaced both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows, signaling strong investor conviction.

Ripple’s Regulatory Wins and Expansion Moves

Ripple’s push for global legitimacy is gaining traction. It recently secured preliminary EMI license approval from Luxembourg’s CSSF, expanding its regulated footprint in the EU. This follows earlier progress with the UK FCA and ongoing efforts toward a U.S. banking charter, reinforcing XRP’s role in cross-border payments.

Ripple also invested $150 million in LMAX, boosting XRP’s institutional trading rails. Meanwhile, its messaging has shifted toward regulated settlement infrastructure, distancing XRP from speculative-only narratives.

• Evernorth Holdings holds 388M XRP tokens, prepping for IPO/SPAC moves
• Multichain interoperability via Wormhole expands XRP’s DeFi reach
• Stablecoin integrations like RLUSD add utility to the XRPL ecosystem

XRP/USD Technical Setup: Triangle Nearing Breakout

On the 2-hour chart, XRP/USD is consolidating near $2.0609, forming a descending triangle—a bearish continuation pattern. Price action shows lower highs pressing into horizontal support at $2.0401 (0.618 Fib). A breakdown below this level could expose $1.8101, the full retracement zone.

Recent candles show rejection near $2.1111 (0.5 Fib), with both moving averages sloping downward. RSI hovers near 40, suggesting weak momentum. If bulls reclaim $2.1111 and close above $2.1821 (0.382 Fib), it could flip the setup bullish.

• Support levels: $2.0401, $1.8101
• Resistance levels: $2.1111, $2.1821
• Trade idea: Sell below $2.0400, target $1.8100, stop above $2.1110

XRP Outlook: Real-World Utility Meets Market Volatility

XRP’s narrative is evolving. With real-world use cases in payments, DeFi, and treasury adoption, plus ETF traction and regulatory clarity, XRP could emerge as a top performer in 2026. Analysts project short-term targets of $2.70–$2.80, with long-term calls reaching $8 or higher. Still, macro volatility and Bitcoin trends remain key drivers.

Ripple has made a significant leap in its European footprint by receiving preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) licence from Luxembourg’s financial regulator, the CSSF. This came by way of a formal “green light” letter – the kind of confirmation that shows the regulator has a fair bit of confidence in Ripple’s setup, even before the licence is all tied up with final conditions.

Once the licence is fully sorted, Ripple will be able to offer fully regulated electronic money services right across the EU – including payments based on stablecoins and tools for settling transactions on the blockchain. Luxembourg is a strategic location – it’s a major financial hub – and this means that Ripple gets to take advantage of the EU’s passporting rules, which let services scale across all member states without needing to get separate approvals for each country.

All this plays right in with Europe’s MiCA framework, which aims to make it simpler to put rules in place for crypto and digital assets across the whole EU. For institutions that are looking at crypto, that clarity really matters.

Why the EMI License is such a big deal for Payments

Now that the EMI licence is in place, Ripple will be able to grow its cross-border payments network under a fully regulated structure – in other words, it’s fully legitimate. Banks, fintechs, and big companies get easier, faster, and lower-cost international payments without having to navigate a whole load of different compliance rules.

The benefits of the licence are pretty straightforward:

• Regulated access to electronic payments across the whole of the EU.
• Support for stablecoins and blockchain-based settlement.
• Faster, more efficient cross-border transactions overall.

Ripple’s payments platform has already handled over $95 bn in transaction volume globally, so the addition of an EU licence gives it even more credibility with big institutions.

UK and EU Approvals Show Up a Clear Strategy

This Luxembourg approval follows hot on the heels of Ripple’s EMI licence and crypto registration from the UK’s FCA. Putting together the UK and EU moves shows a deliberate strategy to get a foothold in major regulatory jurisdictions.

Ripple President Monica Long has said that Europe’s early regulatory clarity is the kind of thing that’s going to push institutions from just messing around with pilots to actually using crypto in real life. By providing a platform that handles liquidity, compliance & settlement simultaneously, Ripple aims to make blockchain payments much simpler for businesses that don’t want to build their own infrastructure from scratch.

Globally, Ripple now has 75+ licences and registrations in place, which just underscores its focus on growing the business in a fully regulated way.

XRP Price Outlook as Market Takes a turn for the better

XRP is trading at about $2.12, having bounced back strongly from its early January lows of $1.81. On the 4-hour chart, the price is still supported by an upward trendline, and the 200-period moving average is at $2.03-$2.05, acting as a key level of support.

The resistance is near $2.21, then $2.31; a break above that could open the door to $2.41. Momentum is neutral, with the RSI in the mid-40s to mid-50s, suggesting there’s still room for the price to keep moving rather than running out of steam.

Trade idea: Buy into any pullbacks at $2.05, stop just below $1.94, and target $2.31-$2.41.

WisdomTree has put the kibosh on its application for the WisdomTree XRP Fund in the US, citing lacklustre demand and an increasingly crowded market. The firm had jumped into the XRP ETF fray in 2024, hoping to cash in on growing institutional interest in the 4th-largest cryptocurrency, but that momentum has since fizzled.

The decision to pull the plug comes even as WisdomTree continues to run its XRP product over in Europe, where the WisdomTree Physical XRP (XRPW) is traded on all the big exchanges – Xetra, SIX Swiss, and Euronext. It’s a move that mirrors CoinShares’ own retreat from several planned US XRP ETFs, signaling a broader shift towards caution among digital-asset sponsors as regulatory expectations tighten.

XRP ETFs Build a Quiet $1.5B Footprint

Despite some high-profile withdrawals, existing US XRP ETFs have quietly grown into a sizable chunk of the digital-asset market. According to SoSoValue:

• Since they were launched, total XRP ETF inflows have come to: $1.2B.
• Current net assets are almost $1.5B.
• The top issuers are Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale.

Still, they’re a long way behind their Bitcoin counterparts, which are still totally dominating inflows, trading volume, and institutional participation. Market conditions have primarily played out to the advantage of early movers, leaving little room for new kids on the block to build up any momentum.

Risk Appetite is Muted for New Crypto ETFs

ETF issuers are now prioritising stability over expansion. Instead of rolling out new products, many are consolidating, trimming their filings, or simply focusing on making their existing funds more liquid.

On the other hand, not every institution is pulling back. Morgan Stanley, with a whopping $1.8 trillion under management, is gearing up to launch a suite of crypto ETFs tied to Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana – an indication that demand isn’t disappearing but becoming a lot more choosy.

Analysts reckon this won’t change through to 2026, when new launches will be as slow as a Sunday stroll while established funds gobble up most of the institutional cash.

XRP Price Prediction – Technical Analysis

XRP is trading just above $2.09 after touching $2.28 earlier in the week. The price is battling a long upper wick, a clear sign of trouble ahead. Price is sitting above the 200-EMA at $2.03, a key support that we saw tested back in January. The 50-EMA has levelled off, reflecting the slowdown after last week’s rally.

XRP is still stuck below a descending trendline that extends back to the October highs, keeping the overall outlook bearish unless buyers can push the price back above $2.16. Recent candles are much smaller now, with shorter wicks, suggesting that selling is slowing rather than going crazy.

Support sits at $1.98 and $1.91, and the RSI is hovering around the mid-40s, indicating the momentum is cooling but hasn’t yet dropped into oversold territory.

Trade Idea: If we can get a confirmed close above $2.16, then the path clears to $2.28; but if we drop below $2.03, the risk is a move all the way down to $1.98.

XRP-linked exchange-traded funds are really starting to make a name for themselves as top institutional crypto trades early this year. According to the market commentary picked up by crypto analyst Tony Edward, XRP-focused ETFs have seen some of the largest inflows and trading volumes among other altcoin products, and, to be honest, they have outperformed several diversified crypto funds over the past few weeks.

What’s really striking is just how fast this rotation is happening. Some XRP ETF products are delivering double digit percentage gains in no time at all – a clear sign that investors are getting in on the action before things really start to take off. In a market as volatile as we’ve seen in the last few months, diversification is less about chasing after potential gains and more about making sure you’ve got a properly risk-adjusted exposure.

XRP Price Breakout Signals Structural Change

From a technical standpoint, the XRP/USD price action suggests that institutional flows are finally making their mark on the market. On the 4-hour chart, XRP has broken through that descending trend line that had been holding price back since October. The breakout near $2.16 marked the first higher high in weeks and was accompanied by a strong-looking bullish candle with a virtually non-existent upper wick – a clear sign that people are actually buying this stuff.

Price has since pushed on through to the $2.37–$2.41 resistance zone – a key area of supply and the mid-range of a much bigger descending channel. This advance also represents a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November–December decline – a level at which the market often pauses or goes on to extend further.

Support is now established at $2.16, with a deeper level of support near $1.98, where we’ve seen repeated signs of buyers stepping in. The RSI is still holding above 55, which is a clear signal that the trend is upwards and not getting worn out.

Ethereum Yield and Bitcoin Utility Add Context

Beyond just XRP, the broader crypto market is continuing to evolve and take shape. Ethereum’s ETF landscape is shifting now that staking rewards are being introduced into regulated products, allowing investors to access yield without worrying about on-chain risks.

At the same time, Bitcoin adoption in places where the local currency is really struggling – such as in Venezuela – is reinforcing its role as a safe haven and hedge rather than just a speculative play. Together, all of these developments suggest that we’re moving into a market driven more by real-world use and structure than by hype.

Key shifts shaping sentiment:

• XRP ETFs are seeing record inflows and trading volumes
• Ethereum staking yield is now entering regulated ETF products
• Bitcoin demand is rising in countries where their currency is under threat

2026 Outlook Keeps Positioning Active

Edward is tying this current momentum to longer-term expectations, echoing the idea that institutional ETF activity often signals broader trend shifts. While we’re still expecting some volatility, the alignment of ETF growth, an improving price structure, and real-world adoption suggests we’re entering a more disciplined and stable phase.

For investors, XRP’s ETF surge and technical breakout are making it clear that we’re in a market transitioning to one where regulated access and strategic capital are playing a much bigger role in shaping direction.

Trade Idea: If you’re looking to buy XRP, do so on a pullback towards $2.16, then target $2.41 and $2.60, with a stop loss below $1.98.