From Bombs to Bets: Polymarket Sees $529M Wager Frenzy on Iran Strikes, New Traders Win

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

Bettors on Polymarket, where $529 million was traded on contracts linked to the timing of the strikes, were profiting as US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend. Blockchain detectives started looking for odd trends in recent wagers almost instantly.

Six Polymarket accounts profited about $1 million by placing bets that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, per Bubblemaps SA, an analytics company.

All of the accounts were newly made in February and had only ever bet on potential US strike dates. Hours before the first explosions in Tehran were reported, some of their shares were bought, sometimes for about a dime each.

These characteristics, which are by no means definitive on their own, are what blockchain analysts identify as insider trading in prediction markets, a sector that lacks broad regulation and a consensus-based process for differentiating between luck and leaks.

The February 28 contract is by far the most popular date for a strike on the platform; by the time it was resolved on Saturday, it had drawn about $90 million in trading volume since its creation. A Jan attack contract was the next most traded item. 31, bringing in $42 million.

One of the biggest prediction market platforms, Polymarket, has grown into a vast, mostly unregulated hub for geopolitical speculation where it is getting harder to distinguish between privileged knowledge and well-informed conviction.

A request for comment from Polymarket on Saturday was not immediately answered. “Some of the first products that allow direct bets on geopolitical events are prediction markets,” stated Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman in an email.

Information about war or conflict may first circulate among a wider group of people before going public. In addition, Polymarket typically just needs a wallet to trade, which enables trading.

$100 Oil Shock Incoming? Iran Threatens to Choke Global Lifeline in Hormuz

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

Tehran’s retaliation and the US-Israeli strikes against Iran could seriously disrupt the world’s crude oil supply and drive up prices to levels not seen in years. Iran’s output has decreased since the 1970s, primarily due to rounds of US sanctions, but it is still among the top 10 oil producers in the world. The nation’s daily production has decreased to about 3.1 million barrels, from about twice that amount in the 1970s.

This is still a substantial sum, and the Islamic Republic’s strategic significance is reinforced by possessing the third-largest crude reserves in the world. Furthermore, compared to Venezuela, another nation that has been subject to years of US sanctions, Iran’s oil industry is in far better shape.

Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway connecting the Middle East to the rest of the world for the transportation of gas and oil, is the biggest threat to the oil market. Traffic through the artery has decreased, according to data from the marine analytics website Marine Tracker.

According to Rasmussen, Iranian crude is especially profitable because it is relatively simple and inexpensive to extract, with production costs as low as US$10 (RM39) per barrel.

The only countries with comparable low production costs are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. In contrast, major Western producers, such as the US and Canada, usually have to pay between $40 and $60 per barrel. Iran benefits disproportionately from high global prices because of its low costs, which is important for an economy that depends largely on oil earnings.

Iran has few export options due to US sanctions that have been in place since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, particularly since President Donald Trump reinstated a “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran after taking office.

Iran exports between 1.3 and 1.5 million barrels per day, of which over 80% is destined for Chinese refineries due to US sanctions. Iranian retaliation attacks were directed at the United States’ oil-producing allies, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq.

Silver Rockets Toward $100/Oz as US-Iran War Sparks Safe-Haven Frenzy

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

The latest fundamentals in the precious metal market showed silver prices could rise back above $100 if there is a significant buying frenzy due to high geopolitical risks.

The joint US-Israeli attack on Iran has increased geopolitical risks, damaged investors’ already low risk tolerance, and increased the price of commodities like gold, silver, and crude oil. US gold futures ended Friday at $5,267.20 per troy ounce, up 1% for April delivery and 11% for February.

Gold prices increased on the futures market for the eighth consecutive month. May silver futures ended Friday at $93.64 per troy ounce, up 6.5 percent.

For the tenth consecutive month, the white metal increased by over 18% in February.
Gold was trading at $5,296 per ounce on the Comex, while spot silver was up 7.85 percent to 93.82 per ounce.

Gold tends to rise quickly because gold is viewed as a store of value when the world seems unstable. Silver follows, but because it has both industrial and investment demand, its movements can be a little more erratic.

In the short term, prices frequently rise as news breaks and traders scramble to reduce risk. However, markets level off over time, and if tensions subside, prices might decline. Therefore, the initial impact is frequently intense and emotional, motivated by fear and a desire for protection, before fundamentals and more general economic considerations regain control.

Markets would anticipate that the current rally in gold, silver, and oil would continue. Higher crude oil prices usually have a greater effect on India: they increase the country’s current account deficit, fuel domestic inflation, put pressure on the rupee, and may cause FII outflows as foreign investors lower their risk exposure.

Silver Poised to Smash $100/Oz Barrier Amid US-Iran Escalation

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

The latest fundamentals in the precious metal market showed silver prices could rise back above $100 if there is a significant buying frenzy due to high geopolitical risks.

Gold prices increased on the futures market for the eighth consecutive month. May silver futures ended Friday at $93.64 per troy ounce, up 6.5 percent.

For the tenth consecutive month, the white metal increased by over 18% in February.
Gold was trading at $5,296 per ounce on the Comex, while spot silver was up 7.85 percent to 93.82 per ounce.

Iran War Sparks $100 Oil Fears: Strait of Hormuz at Risk of Blockade

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

According to Rasmussen, Iranian crude is especially profitable because it is relatively simple and inexpensive to extract, with production costs as low as US$10 (RM39) per barrel.

Bitcoin Rebounds to $68K as Iran Confirms Khamenei’s Death in U.S.-Israel Strikes

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

Bitcoin surged as much as 3 percent to $68,196 before settling back to roughly $67,000 following Iran’s confirmation of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader.

BTC put options valued at $1.87 billion were concentrated at the $60,000 mark, indicating a continued need for downside protection.

Digital assets responded swiftly when the joint US-Israel military campaign was announced on Saturday. According to CoinGecko data, the total cryptocurrency market fell by $128 billion on Saturday, with Bitcoin falling as much as 3.8 percent to nearly $63,000.

According to Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital, “over $128 billion was wiped in minutes, forced liquidations cascaded, and once that selling exhausted itself, the reflex bounce was mechanical.” “Monday is when the actual price discovery takes place.

Iran threatened additional strikes against US-affiliated bases in Iraq after the attack and launched counterattacks on several targets, including Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.

According to some analysts, Sunday’s slight increase indicates that traders are preparing for a prolonged price recovery and that cryptocurrency markets are moving past the unrest in Iran. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that traders were preparing for the impending Federal Reserve meeting.

“Traders generally don’t expect the Iran conflict to have major negative economic consequences, and demand for upside Bitcoin calls has clearly picked up in recent days.” Deribit data showed that Bitcoin call options were concentrated around $75,000.

According to Richard Galvin, co-founder of the hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management, traders who “used the weakness as a buy-the-dip or close-their-shorts opportunity” were largely responsible for the US attack.

NVIDIA Plunges 5% Despite Blowout Earnings — AI Bubble Fears Persist

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

NVIDIA posted a huge drop after its most recent forecast failed to allay concerns about an AI bubble. The largest one-day decline since April 16 occurred in New York, where the shares dropped 5.5 percent to $184.89. The decrease came after an initially impressive first-quarter sales forecast.

NVIDIA’s revenue increased by 73 percent in the fourth quarter, easily surpassing the average analyst estimate. The response provided a clear reminder of the current skepticism about Nvidia. Investors want more reassurance that the chipmaker can sustain its booming AI spending after its sales growth exploded, making it the most valuable company in the world.

According to analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown, investors are still unsure about “whether the current AI spending wave can sustain growth beyond the next few years, and whether Nvidia will remain as dominant as AI shifts from training models to running everyday tasks.”

CEO Jensen Huang dismissed the worries, claiming that clients are already profiting from their newly purchased processing power. Clients will continue to invest at high levels because of this, he said. The Big Short, famous investor Michael Burry, exacerbated the concerns on Thursday.

He pointed out that Nvidia’s purchase commitments now total $95.2 billion, up from $16.1 billion the previous year. That might be dangerous if demand falters. Colette Kress, the chief financial officer, attempted to allay worries expressed by analysts, like the threat of supply limitations.

According to her, the business has acquired enough parts to satisfy rising demand. She told analysts that producing enough of Nvidia’s most cutting-edge chips is still a challenge. However, Kress predicted that the company’s current Blackwell lineup and its upcoming successor, Rubin, would still surpass previous sales forecasts.

US Government Blacklists Anthropic: Agencies and Contractors Barred from AI Firm’s Tech

Posted on March 1, 2026March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

President Donald Trump ordered US government agencies to cease using Anthropic PBC’s products, ending a dispute between the artificial intelligence behemoth and defense officials over technology safeguards

The Pentagon then deemed Anthropic PBC a supply-chain risk. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed the Pentagon to prohibit any business dealings with Anthropic by its contractors and their associates.

Hegseth gave Anthropic six months to transfer AI services to another supplier in a post on X. Hegseth wrote, “The ideological caprices of Big Tech will never subjugate America’s warfighters.” “This choice is final.”

Hegseth had given the business until Friday to give the Pentagon permission to use the Claude chatbot for any legitimate purpose, free from Anthropic’s usage restrictions.

The company has demanded that Claude not be employed in fully autonomous weapons operations or for widespread surveillance against Americans. Anthropic said in a statement on Friday that it has not heard directly from the government regarding the status of negotiations and that it will contest any designation of supply chain risk in court.

Since its establishment, Anthropic has positioned itself as a business committed to the ethical application of AI to prevent disastrous consequences from the technology. Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei and Hegseth, who has vowed to eradicate “woke” practices at the expansive agency he oversees, were in a high-stakes conflict over Amodei’s stance.

Investors Applaud Netflix’s Exit: Stock Up 10%+ Post-Warner Bros. Withdrawal

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

Netflix withdrew from the Warner Bros. acquisition battle. Discovery makes room for Paramount Skydance Corp., a competing bidder. to seal the historic $111 billion deal.

The leader of the streaming market stated that it didn’t want to continue bidding even though it thought its deal would have satisfied regulators and increased shareholder value.

“We’ve always been disciplined, and the deal is no longer financially attractive at the price required to match Paramount Skydance’s latest offer,” Netflix said in a statement on Thursday.

Rather, it will continue to invest in its operations, spending roughly $20 billion this year on movies, television series, and other forms of entertainment.

After-hours trading saw a 13% increase in Netflix shares, suggesting that investors were pleased with the company’s decision to back out of the deal. Warner Bros. declined, and investors stopped expecting a bidding war.

Shares of Paramount barely changed. In December, Netflix agreed to pay $82.7 billion, including assumed debt, to buy Warner Bros.’ studio and streaming divisions; however, the auction remained open due to multiple counteroffers from Paramount for the entire business.

Warner Bros. is late on Thursday. considered Paramount’s most recent $31-per-share offer to be the best.

“The Paramount merger agreement will create tremendous value for our shareholders once our board votes to adopt it,” Warner Bros. In a statement, CEO David Zaslav said. “The potential of a combined Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. excites us.” Discovery and are eager to begin collaborating to tell the stories that inspire people worldwide. “Sha has been made possible by Netflix’s decision not increase their offer.”

OpenAI Grants Pentagon Access to AI Models Following Anthropic Rift

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Olumide Adesina

OpenAI has chosen to deploy its own AI models within the Defense Department’s classified network after rival Anthropic PBC’s relationship with the Pentagon fell apart amid concerns about surveillance and autonomous weapons.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said late Friday that he and the department had reached a consensus that supports the company’s position against “human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems, and domestic mass surveillance.”

Altman posted on the social media platform X, saying, “As part of the deployment, the startup also built safeguards to ensure its models behave as they should.” OpenAI declined to comment on whether Anthropic’s work would be replaced by the company’s services for the department.

The Defense Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment late Friday evening.

Anthropic stated on Friday that “no amount of intimidation or punishment from the Department of War will change our position on mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons.” Anthropic has stipulated that its products cannot be used for surveillance on Americans or to carry out strikes without human involvement.

The Pentagon offered Anthropic terms earlier this week that included some language that the company had proposed on surveillance and autonomy.

However, according to the source, Anthropic did not go far enough to guarantee that the department would not be able to impose any restrictions when it felt the need to do so.

The Trump administration and Anthropic, which has garnered strong support for its position in Silicon Valley, where tech workers rallied to the company’s side and urged it to, are at risk of growing more divided as a result of OpenAI’s agreement with the Pentagon.