Author: Olumide Adesina

Bitcoin has only finished the year lower in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and it is currently down 7% YTD. Since 2025 isn’t like the previous three bear market years, analysts and experts are asking, “Is something broken?” Many specifically point to October 10, when Bitcoin prices plummeted 10%, losing over $12,000 in a single day in the biggest leverage flush in the industry. ”

What happened on October 10th? According to exchanges, everything is OK. Analyst “Max Crypto” questioned, “Market makers are saying they are fine,” adding that it seems like a few large companies are constantly selling cryptocurrency.

Investor George Bodine stated, “The overhang of ‘Crashtober’ still haunts us, and 10 was the pivotal moment to where we sit today.” “I have never seen the fundamentals behind Bitcoin as strong as this year,” he said, adding that the October 10 disaster coincided with record runs in gold and silver, both of which had momentum.

Furthermore, altcoins do not recover; whenever Bitcoin declines without attracting new investment, they bleed. Contrary to what would be expected from healthy market behavior, this suggests that money is leaving the market entirely, rather than shifting between assets.

However, it was a significant deleveraging event, and since then, aggregate OI [open interest] has been declining, indicating that confidence in positioning through perps has undoubtedly suffered.

They predicted that “we will see traders return to the market as they always do, and OI will begin to rise once more” if the price bottoms in this area. “This next rally is even more sustainable than the previous one, so less leverage in the system is not a bad thing.”

Analysts caution that the surge in interest in Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, could have negative effects on the price of BTC. Spikes in Satoshi’s Wikipedia page views have historically coincided with significant turning points in the Bitcoin market cycle, according to data released by Alphractal.

Rising curiosity during powerful rallies has typically coincided with euphoric tops, while similar spikes following protracted drawdowns have indicated capitulation lows.

This pattern was evident in the legal disputes of 2018 and the institutional hype wave of 2021, both of which preceded significant market peaks. However, after prices had already fallen during the post-FTX panic, increased interest surfaced, closely matching a cycle bottom.

Satoshi was among the top eleven richest people in the world due to the combination of revived stories about a US Strategic Reserve and dormant wallets transferring about 80,000 BTC.

Alphractal’s João Wedson contends that social interest in Satoshi serves as a trustworthy sentiment indicator. Wedson’s analysis shows that price drops typically follow spikes in narratives related to Satoshi Nakamoto, with a 73 percent chance that Bitcoin will drop once such attention increases.

The CEO of Aphractal warns that traders who disregard sentiment risk succumbing to confirmation bias by relying only on technical or fundamental signals. However, following the recent spike, interest has decreased, raising the question of whether the market is about to enter a calm phase or is just waiting for another socially driven move.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate around its 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, repeatedly failing to break through the resistance zone between $93,000 and $94,000. According to analysts, a persistent rise above this level might lead to a liquidity retest in the $97,000–$98,000 range, but it would be repeatedly rejected.