USD to AUD Rate at 0.66 After the Australian Wage Price Index

Posted on August 13, 2024August 13, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

The USD to AUD rate was showing some stability ahead of important economic data from Australia and the US, with AUD/USD consolidating below 0.66. This pair showed volatility in July, falling 4.5 cents, but then reversing and climbing 2.5 cents higher, retesting the bottom of the previous range at 0.66 where the 100 daily SMA stands.

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XRP Soars After Ripple Settles SEC Lawsuit, Analysts Predict Bullish Run

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Arslan Butt

XRP price surged 20% in 24 hours following the conclusion of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The settlement saw Ripple pay a $125 million civil penalty, significantly lower than the initial $2 billion proposed by the SEC. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse hailed the outcome as a victory for the industry.

Short squeeze fuels price increase: The unexpected price surge caught futures traders off guard, leading to a liquidation of $5.4 million in short positions within four hours. Analysts predict further liquidations if XRP reaches $0.65.

Bullish chart patterns emerge: Technical analysts are optimistic about XRP’s future. Steph is Crypto, a renowned analyst, points to a bullish triangle pattern on the monthly chart, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. Similarly, a symmetrical triangle pattern forming since 2018 on the weekly chart suggests a potential breakout towards $1 and a new all-time high. This bullish sentiment is reflected in over $2 million being placed on XRP’s $1.10 call option.

Whale accumulation and top holder thresholds: Santiment data reveals aggressive accumulation by XRP whales in recent weeks, with those holding over one billion tokens increasing their positions. Analyst Edo Farina also shared updated thresholds for joining the top tiers of XRP holders globally. Currently, 3,011 XRP secures a spot in the top 10%, while 61,237 XRP qualifies you as a “whale” in the top 1%.

Short-term consolidation expected: Despite the recent surge, XRP faces a resistance level at $0.63. Analysts predict a short-term consolidation phase as the market determines its next move. Breakout targets include $0.71 (resistance) or $0.48 (support).

XRP/USD Technical Analysis

The daily and 4-hour charts by Shayan reveal XRP is currently trapped within a crucial price range between $0.63 and $0.55. A breakout above $0.63 could lead to a surge towards $0.71, while a break below $0.55 could see a further decline to $0.48. The upcoming period will be crucial in determining XRP’s next major move.

Appetite for Bitcoin weak amid high volatility

Posted on August 13, 2024August 13, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Bitcoin’s volatility has been elevated particularly this month. The crypto asset’s price fluctuation affirms a high uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions, especially in light of comments made by the U.S. Fed official over the weekend.

Bitcoin tested the $57.8K level late last week before rising above 60K but trading below $59K on Tuesday. Traders speculate whether Bitcoin will revisit its August low of $49,248, particularly given the waning interest in long-term leveraged Bitcoin positions and the mounting possibility of a global stock market correction.

Risk appetite has dampened lately as JPMorgan economists increased the likelihood of a US economic recession in 2024 to 35%. The report identified two major factors: a restrictive policy by the Fed and weak labor market conditions.

Resistance for bitcoin has been established at the $62K, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, drawn from the swing high of $70K on July 29 to the low of $49,101 on August 5.

The broken trendline, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at roughly $62,659, and the $62,066 level acting as resistance could lead to more selling pressure.
If the price doesn’t rise above $62,066, it can likely retest the $49,917 daily support level. The Awesome Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, trading below their neutral levels of 0 and 50, respectively, indicating a strong bearish trend.

The labor market is still weak and inflation risks are present. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, believes such a narrative lessens the chance of an interest rate cut in September. Investors are waiting for the August release of the US Producer Price Index in a holding pattern.

The Fed’s ability to meet market expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2024 is anticipated to be revealed by these data points.

The moderation in excessive leverage in the market could be one reason for the current neutral sentiment. Given that both bulls and bears have liquidated more $650 million in Bitcoin futures, it is likely that the recent volatility has decreased demand for leverage. This, however, falls short of explaining why the open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $28.8 billion.

However, CME data indicates that Bitcoin derivatives are becoming less dependent on retail trading. That is to say, even if Bitcoin’s volatility continues, there is no indication that traders will become more bearish or that excessive liquidation could lead to a series of sell-offs that could take the price down to $50K.

Gold Heads for New Record Highs As Dips Remain Supported

Posted on August 13, 2024August 12, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

On Monday Gold tumbled below $2,400, but technical indicators held as support, while fundamentals provided fuel to push XAU toward new highs. The price has made quite a comeback in the last three days, surging $100 higher from the lows and the Gold buyers are now targeting the all-time high at $2,483.67 from July.

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NIKKEI225: Stocks Gain on Renewed Bullish AI Sentiment

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

Japanese stocks follow global stock markets higher as AI bets take the front seat over geopolitical concerns and monetary policy.

The [[NAS100]] gained 0.80% at one point this morning and the [[NIKKEI225]] was up by 1.95%. Investors are taking advantage of the stock market dip to place their money into the AI tech sectors.

Japanese households are also taking advantage of the dip that materialized after the BoJ hawkish policy at the last meeting on July 31. Retail investors seem to be taking the sharp drop in stock prices as an opportunity.

Individual stock investors bought a total of ¥481.8 billion of Japanese stocks between July 29 and August 2, which includes the 10% drop in prices after the central bank meeting. Retail investors can take advantage of tax-saving plans known as Nippon Individual Savings Account.

It seems that the average household is willing to hold on to their investments and ride out the selloff. While many are looking to get into stocks at a discount.

We know that sharp single day drops in price can force margin investors and some funds with strict rules to sell their holdings, worsening the rout.

Investors are putting Middle East tensions to the sidelines for now. The US government has warned Israel that a strike from Iran is imminent. However, it seems that those concerns aren’t in play for the time being.

Technical View

The chart below for the NIKKEI225 shows a bear market undergoing a correction. The recent selloff led the market into a bear trend. The dip to 30,694 on April 5, then gave way to a retracement.

The current candle is finding resistance at the Kijun Sen (crimson line), which also coincides with the resistance from a previous dip in April of 36,675 (green line). The two indicators will create extra resistance, and I would expect a correction lower here.

To the upside, the market will find further resistance at 37,599 (red line), which corresponds to the dip that was followed by the all-time high. Should the market break that level the next resistance will be at 39,447 (purple line) and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

[[NIKKEI225-graph]]

FTSE Rattled by Positive Employment Data, Bullish AI Sentiment

Posted on August 13, 2024August 13, 2024 by Gino Bruno D'Alessio

UK stocks off to a volatile start on Tuesday, as investors battle with Mixed jobs data and bullish AI sentiment leading global stocks higher.

The UK added 97k jobs in the last month up from 17k new jobs previously, but unemployment claims jumped to 135k when analysts had expected only 14.5k. While AI bullishness has sent the [[NAS100]] up by 0.80% this morning and the [[NIKKEI225]] up 1.95%.

Positive UK employment data shows signs of a healthy economy and may be cause for the BoE to pause longer before their next rate cut. However, a large rise in unemployment claims means the picture may not be as rosy.

Fears of a delay in the central bank’s monetary policy easing cycle and the strong performance from tech stocks globally have been this morning’s factors sparking volatility. The [[FTSE]] has gone from trading down 0.20% to up 0.30% within an hour after the jobs data.

Eyes move to Wednesday’s CPI data from the US as concerns of higher prices might delay the Fed’s first move on interest rates. The global stock market has come to the consensus that the Fed most likely will cut rates at its meeting in September.

Technical View

The day chart below for the FTSE shows a market in a down-trend, with the last 5 candles forming a correction from the low August 5, to 7,910 (grey line). The current candle has found resistance from the Ichimoku cloud (pink area).

A close on today’s candle below the cloud should lead to further downward price action. The next support level is at 8,036 (black line), which coincides with a support level from April. Should that level of support break, the next support level is at 7,910 (grey line).

To consider the market as back in a bull trend, we would need to see a close above the cloud and above the resistance level at 8,278 (blue line).

[[FTSE-graph]]

Forex Signals Brief August 13: UK Earnings and US PPI Inflation

Posted on August 13, 2024August 12, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday, the economic calendar was relatively quiet, with risk sentiment turning negative due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, although gold continued to rise. A New York consumer survey revealed that while inflation expectations have remained stable over the past five years, the three-year outlook dropped by 0.6% to a record low of 2.3% since the survey began in 2013. These somewhat unusual results provided support for equities and boosted treasuries.

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U.S dollar stable ahead of inflation data

Posted on August 13, 2024August 13, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

The dollar remained stable ahead of important inflation data expected later today. Following last week’s significant risk-off move across markets, sentiment toward regional currencies remained cautious, and the unwinding carry trade with the yen added to the pressure.

Amidst ongoing worries about a slowdown in the largest economy in the region, uncertainty ahead of additional economic signals from China also added to the burden.

Little movement was seen in the dollar index and dollar index futures during London trade, continuing the weak overnight performance caused by large bets being retracted in anticipation of the inflation data.

The Federal Reserve will have more leeway, lowering interest rates if the consumer price index data, scheduled for Wednesday, shows that inflation moderated in July.

Lower readings won’t help the US dollar. A slowdown in US inflation data could also increase concerns about the likelihood of a US recession, would encourage the Fed to lower interest rates even more.
Traders are divided on the much-anticipated rate drop of 25 or 50 basis points, and the July inflation report will likely influence the outcome.

In addition to the inflation data, this week’s retail sales and industrial production data are also set for release. The release of the wholesale inflation data on Wednesday is the consumer price index. Investors will be questioning whether the U.S. economy will recover in particular as they closely watch these two sets of data

At its July meeting, the central bank decided not to raise interest rates, hinting that a reduction may occur in September, contingent on the evolution of inflation and the labor market.

In light of recent market turbulence and economic unpredictability, doubts have surfaced regarding the Fed’s decision to start reducing rates earlier to prevent a hard landing. The markets are generally expecting one in September.

XRP Finds Roadblock below $0.66, Millions Flowing To Ripple ETPs

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is steady and interest is soaring, looking at engagement in the past week of trading. Technically, buyers have a chance and may close above the immediate barriers in a buy trend continuation. However, what’s important in the next few days is the relief from the conclusion of the Ripple versus the United States SEC court case. After years, the court ruled that Ripple should pay $125 million as settlement, lifting sentiment.

So far, traders are closely monitoring the performance of crypto assets across the board, considering the positive correlation it has on XRP. Even after a 32% spike from August 2024 lows, traders are looking at $0.62. A close above this level could see XRP rip higher in a buy trend continuation. For now, the coin is stable on the last day, though trading volume is rising, reaching $1.3 billion in the past 24 hours.

Traders are closely monitoring the following trending XRP and Ripple news:

The United States SEC might not appeal the ruling made by the court, which would greatly boost Ripple and XRP. According to Ripple CEO, the company had spent nearly $150 million before last week’s settlement.
Coinshares report that inflows into the XRP ETPs soared by over 175% last week. So far, over $21 million has been invested into these complex derivatives. The more capital flows to XRP, the higher the probability of prices surging.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] remains within a bullish formation.

The problem is that there is strong rejection at around July highs.

Still, following the uptick of August 7 and 8, every low within this range may offer entries for buyers.

So far, the local support is $0.55.

This level may be the base for buyers targeting $0.60 and $0.66.

If bulls flow back, a decisive break lifting XRP above $0.66 will be ideal. In that event, the coin can easily float to $0.74, if not $1, in a buy trend continuation formation.

Ethereum Consolidates: Will ETH Bulls Break Above $2,700?

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum remains within a bearish formation, at least for now. Notice that the coin is still trending inside the bear bar of August 8. However, the higher highs posted over the last two days may ignite demand, lifting sentiment. A firm close above August 5 highs, at the back of rising volume, may be the base for another wave of buying pressure that may see Ethereum soar to multi-week highs. For now, the zone between $2,100 and $2,500 remains critical.

The sideways chop seen in Ethereum reflects how it has been performing in the past day and week. So far, the coin is stable but in the green over the last week, adding 6%. Even though there are pockets of strength, there must be a decisive close above the local liquidation level, as mentioned earlier. Trading volume must swell for this to happen and the leg up to remain. Should bulls take over, a close above $2,700 must exceed trading volume registered in the past day at around $21 billion.

Traders are closely monitoring the following Ethereum news:

Despite the market-wide sell-off and consolidation, on-chain data shows that whales have been accumulating. By the end of last week, they had bought over 750,000 ETH, a mark of confidence in what lies ahead.
The Ethereum ecosystem continues to scale, thanks to the proliferation of layer-2 protocols. Data shows that layer-2 platforms have scaled by a factor of 24X—a signal of adoption.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is consolidating, looking at the daily chart.

The bull bar of August 8 is crucial.

Every low may offer entries for aggressive traders targeting $3,000 and $3,300.

However, as mentioned earlier, traders can wait for a clean close above $2,700 on August 5 before committing.

On the flip side, any close below $2,200 and August 5 lows may signal weakness, forming the base for another leg down to $1,800.