Category: Articles

Emirates’ Reality Check: 5-10% Full Inbound Jets as Exodus Hits Dubai

Posted on by Olumide Adesina

Emirates is running flights to Dubai that are sometimes almost empty as passengers avoid the Persian Gulf, underscoring the difficulties facing the biggest international airline in rebuilding its network during a protracted conflict.

Flights from destinations in the US and continental Europe have been most severely affected, with planes returning from Prague or Budapest only roughly 5% to 10% occupied.

At least one flight last week departed with fewer than 35 passengers on an Airbus SE jumbo A380 jet that typically seats close to 500, and several aircraft returning from New York flew with only a fifth of the tickets sold.

The documents state that half-empty cabins were used on departures from Chicago. Flights departing Dubai exhibit a very different pattern because fewer aircraft are available. After that, Emirates returns the aircraft to its hub with minimal occupancy.

Emirates said that as long as it can do so safely, it will keep restoring its network at a steady pace. In response to inquiries, an official stated that current inbound occupancy is unsurprisingly low given the circumstances. The business stated that it doesn’t comment on the occupancy of particular routes.

According to Flightradar24 data, the airline operated roughly 500 flights out of Dubai International on a typical day before the war, with roughly half of those flights being departures.

That number had dropped to 71 takeoffs by March 16. Even though there isn’t much demand for passengers, the business loads cargo onto its planes, which generates additional income and an influx of perishable goods.

Operating Boeing Co. is a priority for Emirates. 777 aircraft due to their superior cargo capacity compared to the Airbus A380. The flights are one of the few ways to import supplies because the Strait of Hormuz is practically closed. The operations of the state-owned carrier have been severely disrupted.

Rate Uncertainty Weighs on Gold Trapped Below $4,800/oz

Posted on by Olumide Adesina

Gold prices increased slightly in Asian trade on Thursday but stayed well below key levels due to uncertainty over interest rates and the inflationary effects of the U.S.

The producer inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s prediction of higher US inflation put pressure on gold prices, pushing them well below the desired $5,000 per ounce level and to a low of more than a month.  Gold futures fell 1.3 percent to $4.8K/oz.

Gold broke below a $5,000–$5,200/oz trading range that had been in place for almost a month after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, indicating uncertainty about the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

Stronger-than-expected producer price index inflation data for February preceded the Fed’s decision. The Fed’s remarks and the PPI report increased market speculation that the central bank would not have any room to lower interest rates in the near future.

The yellow metal has had difficulty since the start of the Iran war. This week, gold underperformed while oil prices kept rising due to the lack of signs of a de-escalation in the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iran retaliated bitterly after Israel attacked the South Pars gas field, the largest gas field in the world, on Wednesday, seemingly starting a new phase of the conflict. Tehran continued to attack targets in Israel and launched attacks on several significant energy facilities throughout the Middle East.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused global oil and gas prices to soar, while military and shipping disruptions caused energy production throughout the Middle East to slow down.

Citi Warns: Brent Could Spike to $110–$120 per Barrel in Near Term

Posted on by Olumide Adesina

Citi said in a note on Wednesday that it anticipates a sharp increase in oil prices as conflict-related supply disruptions worsen.

Crude Oil Rebounds as Traders React to Escalating Regional Tensions

Analysts predict that Brent will reach between $110 and $120 per barrel in the coming days. The bank’s head of global commodities, Maximilian Layton, wrote in a note that the bank’s updated base case, which has a 50% probability, is predicated on 4–6 weeks of disrupted flows, or up to 11–16 million barrels per day.

According to Citi, “Brent prices will rally as the conflict continues over the coming days, to $110-120/bbl,” meaning the market will continue to rise until a political or strategic intervention is necessary.

“That might be the ‘price or market event which drives the U.S to cease its military operation, the point at which inventories are released more forcefully by the IEA and OECD, or the point at which international powers are prompted to ‘forcefully re-open the Strait,” Citi emphasized the risks of escalation.

Citi emphasized that there are still substantial risks of escalation. Brent could “reach $150/bbl” in its bull case, which has a 30% probability, and increase to as much as $200/bbl “all-in” if Iran attacks more extensive energy infrastructure or if the Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed through June.

According to the bank’s bear case, which has a mere 20% chance, prices will drop to $65–70 by year’s end—but only if a swift agreement between the US and Iran reopens the Strait.

Citi is “very bullish on aluminum,” citing low inventories and the possibility of Middle Eastern smelters reducing production, which could eliminate up to 6% of the world’s supply.

 

Forex Signals March 19: Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, Firefly, USAR Earnings Preview

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Investors are closely watching earnings from Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, USA Rare Earth and Firefly today, with results expected to provide key signals on global demand and corporate spending trends.
Continue reading “Forex Signals March 19: Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, Firefly, USAR Earnings Preview” →

Mexican Peso Weakens Against the Dollar After Fed Policy Announcement

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The peso, which had already been declining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data, extended its losses in line with its regional peers.

The Mexican peso weakened against the dollar in midweek trading. The local currency, already under pressure from the start of the session, deepened its losses alongside other regional currencies as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest communication.

The exchange rate closed the session at 17.8265 per dollar. Compared to 17.6645 in the previous session, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represented a loss of 16.20 centavos, or 0.92%.

The dollar traded within a range between a high of 17.8774 and a low of 17.6019 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.74% to 100.30 points.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

The Fed announcement

In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank projected higher inflation and a stable unemployment rate, while maintaining its outlook for just one rate cut in 2026.

Market expectations have remained anchored since last week at a single 25-basis-point cut in the December 9 meeting, so the announcement was largely anticipated, said Jorge Adrián Calderón, a fixed income and interest rate derivatives trader.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain. He added that economic activity continues to expand solidly, although job creation has been modest.

A stronger dollar

The dollar also strengthened after Powell signaled that a rate hike cannot be ruled out, even if it is not the base case. The currency had already been gaining since the open following stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data and developments related to Iran.

The peso initially started the session on a positive note, but the exchange rate came under pressure as markets reacted to geopolitical headlines, particularly Iran’s statement identifying energy infrastructure as potential targets.

Earlier in the day, data showed that U.S. producer prices rose well above expectations in February, increasing 0.7% compared to forecasts of 0.3%, not yet reflecting the surge in oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Gold: More Central Banks Buying, but in Smaller Amounts

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Global central bank statistics and the broader gold market point to a slight slowdown in buying momentum at the start of the year, although it is worth noting that the base of demand continues to broaden.

Investor repositioning amid the Middle East conflict and the surge in oil and gas prices remains unclear. Still, gold remains firmly on the radar. It is also true that since the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” by the United States and Israel against Iran, gold prices initially reacted sharply before easing alongside optimistic statements from President Donald Trump. After hovering around $5,000 per ounce, prices have recently slipped to just above $4,800. Several factors may explain this softness, including central bank responses to the evolving global landscape and some degree of demand fatigue after years of heavy accumulation.

That said, the year began with solid demand from retail investors, ETFs, and central banks. The latest available data show that central banks continued to buy gold in January, albeit at a slower pace, while the pool of buyers expanded. According to the World Gold Council, Bank Negara Malaysia made its first net gold purchase since 2018 (3 tons), while the Bank of Korea is considering resuming gold investments for the first time since 2013. Analysts note that geopolitical uncertainty remains a persistent driver of central bank demand, even if January’s heightened volatility proved an exception.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

What happened in January?

  • Central banks purchased a net 5 tons, well below last year’s monthly average of 27 tons.
  • Buying was led by central banks in Central and East Asia, though Eastern European institutions also increased reserves. Notably, Central Asia saw activity on both sides: Uzbekistan was among the largest buyers (9 tons), while Kazakhstan was a net seller (1 ton). Russia was the largest seller, offloading 9 tons.
  • The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) sold 2 tons of gold, but this decline corresponds to an equivalent increase in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) gold reserves, as Bulgaria joins the European Union as its 21st member.
  • The early-year slowdown in central bank gold purchases—compared to the 27-ton monthly average over the past 12 months—may be linked to price volatility and seasonal factors such as the holiday period, which could have given some central bankers pause. Nevertheless, analysts believe that persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain gold accumulation through 2026 and beyond.

It is worth recalling that gold prices reached highs above $5,300 in January. Even so, central bank buying momentum remained resilient despite elevated prices.

Key reported activity in January:

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan purchased 9 tons, extending its buying streak since October. This brought its total gold reserves to 399 tons. The growth has been remarkable, rising from 57% of total reserves in 2020 to 86% in January 2026.

Bank Negara Malaysia emerged as a new buyer, adding 3 tons—its first increase since 2018—bringing total reserves to 42 tons, or 5% of its total reserves.

Other buyers included the Czech Republic (2 tons), Indonesia (2 tons), and China and Serbia (1 ton each).

China’s 15 consecutive months of gold purchases have lifted gold holdings to nearly 10% of its total reserves.

Wall Street Slides Sharply on Weak Inflation Data and Rising Oil Prices

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Energy supply concerns continue to keep crude prices elevated. As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and projected only one rate cut this year.

A bear market is following the release of a report.
A bear market is following the release of a report.

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, March 18, after stronger-than-expected producer inflation data dampened investor sentiment, already weighed down by the economic impact of rising oil prices and the Fed’s rate decision.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% to 46,224.68 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 6,625.38; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.5% to 22,152.42.

[[SPX-graph]]

Fed holds rates steady

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled just one rate cut this year. The central bank noted that the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains “uncertain.”

The Fed’s latest decision comes at a time when inflation in the United States remains well above target and the labor market is showing mixed signals. The war with Iran has further complicated the outlook for policymakers, with Brent crude—the global oil benchmark—surging nearly 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

Against this backdrop, U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to their highest levels since October 2023.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a second consecutive meeting, after cutting rates by a total of 75 basis points late last year.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have been modest, and the unemployment rate has changed little in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement. “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

Producer inflation comes in above expectations

Before the market open, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, while the annual rate reached 3.4%, driven primarily by higher service costs. The February increase exceeded both January’s 0.5% gain and market expectations of a 0.3% rise.

Meanwhile, core PPI increased 0.5% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, also coming in above consensus estimates.

These figures follow earlier readings that were broadly in line with expectations for consumer and producer prices in January and February. However, the latest data suggest that inflation was already a persistent issue before the sharp rise in oil prices in March due to the war with Iran.

“The PPI confirms what’s becoming clear: the war is causing inflation to spread through the economy, and it won’t be temporary. It will take time to offset the cost pressures stemming from higher oil prices,” said Ross Gerber, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide Up to 5.3% After Fed Rate Decision

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Bitcoin Falls Below $72,000 While Ethereum Drops Under $2,200.

The cryptocurrency market is posting sharp losses this Wednesday amid global caution after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and projected higher inflation in the coming months, accelerating Wall Street’s decline.

In this context, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.9% over the past 24 hours to $71,137, according to Binance, while Ethereum (ETH) is shedding 5.3% to trade at $2,199. Altcoins are mostly lower, with losses of up to 5%, led by Solana (-5%) and Dogecoin (-5%).

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. The surprise came from updated economic projections, particularly higher expected inflation for 2026, driven by volatility in global oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

[[BTC/USD-graph]]

Bitcoin is showing a modest pullback on the day, reflecting a more defensive market stance. Even so, the asset continues to consolidate within a key technical range between $70,000 and $76,000. Immediate resistance aligns with the recent high near $76,000; a daily close above this level could open the door to a move toward $78,000.

Institutional flows remain strong

Despite the short-term correction, institutional interest remains firm. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $199.4 million in the latest session, marking seven consecutive days of gains and totaling nearly $1.2 billion over that period.

Similarly, Ethereum ETFs added $138.3 million, while products tied to Solana and XRP also saw inflows, albeit on a smaller scale.

According to analysts, these flows reflect structural demand driven by long-term investors. “These are not tactical trades, but strategic allocations by players with extended investment horizons,” market participants note.

This support has helped Bitcoin maintain a relatively stable range, even after a roughly 15% rally and amid a global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions.

Regulatory shift and new opportunities

On the regulatory front, the United States delivered a notable signal: the SEC and CFTC issued new guidance stating that most cryptocurrencies should not be classified as securities.

This marks a shift from the regulators’ previous stance and could reduce uncertainty that had been holding back some institutional investors. For the market, the new framework opens the door to broader adoption and the development of new financial instruments, including an expansion of crypto ETFs.

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are experiencing a pause in prices, but underlying fundamentals continue to show growing support from institutional capital.