Forex Signals Brief October 9: RBNZ Rate Cut and FOMC Minutes

Posted on October 9, 2024October 9, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the economic data was light again, so markets traded the sentiment mostly, which turned positive on news of a possible truce between Israel, Lebanon and Iran. Stock markets rebounded after the decline on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing the day near record highs once again, while commodity dollars continued to retrace higher. Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief October 9: RBNZ Rate Cut and FOMC Minutes” →

XRP Drops 12% As CTO Says RLUSD Stable Will Drive Demand: Will Ripple Reject Sellers?

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is down, and its price action appears to be driven chiefly by fundamental factors. If Bitcoin and the crypto market recover, the seventh most valuable coin may benefit. However, as things stand, the coin will likely slide as BTC is also losing steam, and buyers have yet to decisively back price action. As for now, the immediate support is at $0.50, and as long as the coin is below $0.55, moving in sync with the sell-off of October 1 and 2 bears, the coin could post more losses.

Presently, XRP is moving sideways at press time and bearish unless there are gains that will confirm gains of Q3 2024. Technically, sellers will be in charge as long as the coin remains below $0.55 and $0.66. For now, Ripple is down nearly 12% in the previous week as engagement fades, sinking below $1 billion.

Traders are watching the following Ripple and XRP news events:

Ripple’s partner in Brazil, Mercado, will use the platform’s end-to-end payments to streamline treasury operations. The goal is to make all transactions between the country and Brazil smooth, boosting cross-border payment efficiency.
RLUSD, the stablecoin by Ripple, David Schwartz, in an interview, will benefit XRP. Since the token will launch on the XRP Ledger, all fees will be payable in XRP. The more there are users, the higher the demand is.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is down, sliding 12% in the past week alone.

Even though there are optimistic traders, those expecting a bounce from recent swing lows and aligning with Q3 2024 gains, the short term favors sellers.

A break below $0.50 will confirm losses of early October, allowing XRP to slide towards $0.45 and $0.40 in a bear trend continuation formation.

For buyers to flow back, finding support from September lows, prices must remain steady above $0.50. Any reversal of October 1 and 2 and gains above $0.60 will be massive for optimistic buyers targeting a breakout above $0.66 and to all-time highs.

Ethereum Stakers Lock Over 34 Million Coins: Why Is ETH Losing Steam?

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum is, from a fundamental outlook, bullish. However, looking at price action, there are concerns, especially now that buyers have yet to close above $3,000 and prices consolidating. Technically, the probability of the coin dropping below $2,100 and printing fresh H2 2024 lows cannot be discounted. Sellers are unrelenting; if this happens, ETH may dump hard, flowing to $1,500 or lower. Amid this, outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs remain a concern, heaping more pressure on the second most valuable coin. All this is despite the ongoing network refinement and expansion and plans to cement its position as a leader in DeFi and other sectors.

At press time, traders are upbeat, but there should be more. With the coin moving sideways in the daily chart, the local support and resistance is at $2,300 and $2,800, respectively. Ethereum is flat in the past 24 hours but under pressure in the past week, losing nearly 3%. At the same time, the average trading volume is decent but low, at around $14 billion.

The following Ethereum news events are worth tracking:

Nearly 30% of all ETH in circulation, or around 34.4 million coins, have been locked by validators. Thus far, there are more than 1 million validators tasked with securing, decentralizing, and processing transactions on the world’s largest smart contract platform.
Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has been liquidating meme coins, sent to him as gifts. Buterin recently liquidated 10 billion MOODENG before donating the proceeds, roughly 260,000 ETH, to charity.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is in a downtrend, looking at the formation in the daily chart.

Even though there is hope that the coin will recover, sellers are in control, at least for now.

Ethereum bulls need to defend $2,300, and if they break $2,800, there might be opportunities for aggressive traders to double down, targeting $3,000 and $3,500.

If not, and there is confirmation of the October 1 bear bar, ETH might easily slide below $2,100 and August lows in a bear trend continuation formation.

Bitcoin Up 27% From August Lows: What’s Next for BTC? Will Bulls Break $64,000?

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Bitcoin is firm when writing, soaking in the selling pressure of October 7 and 8. Even though buyers are still struggling for momentum and the downtrend remains, if the trend of last week leads, the uptrend set in motion in September is still valid. In the short term, traders can wait for a clear trend definition, aware that any dip below the $58,000 to $60,000 support zone may trigger more losses. As this happens, there are fundamental factors to track, including the involvement of new whales, looking at what has been happening over the last few years.

Traders are confident that Bitcoin is up nearly 27% from the Q3 2024 lows. Although sellers are determined, buyers stand a chance as long as the coin trends above the $60,000 level. For now, traders are watching how the coin performs in the past day and week. It is stable in the previous week, amid flat engagement, standing at over $27 billion.

The following trending Bitcoin news events are worth watching:

Despite the attempts of sellers to cap gains, new whales, onchain data reveals, have bought over $108 billion worth of the asset. At the same time, older whales have invested $113 billion. However, the realized cap of new whales will likely surpass those of older whales in the coming sessions.
All spot Bitcoin ETF issuers in the United States currently control over $59 billion worth of the coin. The number is only expected to increase in the coming months, especially if the coin recovers.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] is steady, trading above $60,000.

Although the uptrend remains, there is a risk of the coin dropping, breaking below the support band of around $58,000 and $60,000.

For buyers to take charge, Bitcoin, on the other hand, must reverse all October 1 losses and break above $64,000.

Preferably, the breakout bar must be with rising trading volume, confirming gains of September.

In that event, BTC could easily float above $66,000 to over $70,000.

Gold Prices Drop to $2,615 Amid Strong Dollar and Mixed Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Arslan Butt

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under intense selling pressure, dropping to $2,621 with an intra-day low of $2,615. The precious metal has been in a six-day losing streak, driven largely by the strengthening U.S. dollar, which hovers near a seven-week high.

Market sentiment turned bearish after expectations for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in November diminished, as indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Continue reading “Gold Prices Drop to $2,615 Amid Strong Dollar and Mixed Fed Rate Cut Expectations” →

XRP Sees Renewed Interest as Canary Capital Files for XRP ETF

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Arslan Butt

XRP, the digital asset associated with Ripple, is garnering attention once again as Canary Capital becomes the latest firm to file for an XRP-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). This development comes amidst ongoing legal battles and price fluctuations, signaling a potential shift in the cryptocurrency’s market positioning.

ETF Filing Sparks Optimism

Canary Capital’s recent filing for an XRP ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) marks a significant step towards mainstream adoption of the cryptocurrency. Following a similar move by Bitwise just a week prior, this filing indicates growing institutional interest in XRP despite regulatory uncertainties.

The proposed ETF aims to simplify investor access to XRP by tracking its value using the CME CF Ripple index. Canary Capital plans to utilize a combination of secure cold and hot wallets for XRP management, addressing concerns about custody and security.

A spokesperson for Canary Capital expressed confidence in the evolving crypto market, stating, “We’re seeing encouraging signs of a more progressive regulatory environment coupled with growing demand from investors for sophisticated access to cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

Ripple’s Legal Challenges and Market Response

While the ETF filing has sparked optimism, XRP continues to face legal hurdles. The SEC recently appealed a court ruling in its case against Ripple Labs, challenging the decision that only Ripple’s institutional XRP sales were unregistered securities offerings. This ongoing regulatory uncertainty may delay ETF approval until 2025 or later.

Despite these challenges, XRP has shown resilience in the market. On Tuesday, October 8, XRP advanced by 0.47%, outperforming the broader crypto market, which saw a slight decline of 0.06%.

XRP/USD Technical Analysis: XRP Coiling for Potential Breakout

As of the latest data, XRP is trading at $0.5320, hovering near the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The cryptocurrency has been consolidating in a tight range, with key resistance levels at $0.5450 and $0.5500.

Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish momentum if XRP can clear these resistance levels. The hourly MACD is gaining pace in the bullish zone, while the RSI is above the 50 level, indicating growing positive sentiment.

However, analysts caution that failure to break above $0.5360 could lead to another decline, with support levels at $0.5200 and $0.5165. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and investors are advised to exercise caution.

Ethereum Shows Resilience Amid Market Fluctuations and Bullish Predictions

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Arslan Butt

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, continues to demonstrate its strength in the volatile crypto market. Recent developments, including ETF flows and price analysis, paint a picture of a digital asset poised for potential growth.

Ethereum ETF Flows: A Mixed Bag

On October 4, Ethereum ETFs saw a total net inflow of $7.4 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF leading the charge with $14.7 million in inflows. However, this positive momentum was partially offset by Grayscale’s ETHE, which experienced outflows of $8.2 million. Bitwise’s ETHW ETF recorded minor inflows of $0.9 million, while other ETFs remained relatively stable.

Interestingly, October 7 saw no significant activity across Ethereum ETFs, with all products reporting flat flows. This period of calm could indicate a consolidation phase as investors assess market conditions and potential future movements.

Standard Chartered’s Bullish Outlook

In a recent report, Standard Chartered Bank analysts, led by Geoff Kendrick, presented a bullish case for Ethereum. The report suggests that ETH could potentially rally to $7,000 under a Harris administration or even reach $10,000 under a Trump presidency by the end of 2025. This forecast, while optimistic, is actually a downward revision from the bank’s previous prediction of $14,000.

The analysts also compared Ethereum favorably to its competitor Solana (SOL) across several key metrics:

Market cap to network fee revenue ratio: ETH at 121 vs. SOL at 250
Developer pool: ETH hosts 38% vs. SOL’s 9%
Supply growth rate: ETH at 0.5% vs. SOL at 5.5%

These comparisons suggest that Ethereum may be undervalued relative to Solana, potentially indicating room for growth.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels

As of October 9, 2024, Ethereum is trading around $2,430, following $18.93 million in liquidations in its derivatives market. The price action shows ETH bouncing off a key support level near $2,400, with the cryptocurrency now attempting to move towards the $2,490 resistance.

ETH/USD Technical Indicators

ETH is currently trading above both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which are converging to form a potential barrier.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) momentum indicators are slightly above their neutral levels, suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish momentum.

Key Levels to Watch

Support: $2,400 (psychological level), $2,395 (critical support)
Resistance: $2,490 (immediate resistance), $2,596 (potential target if $2,490 is broken)

Outlook

If Ethereum can successfully break above the $2,490 resistance, it could pave the way for a move towards $2,596. However, a daily candlestick close below $2,395 would invalidate this bullish thesis.

Bitcoin Hovers Around $62K as Traditional Markets See Major Swings

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Arslan Butt

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade in a narrow range around $62,000 on Tuesday, showing uncharacteristic stability amid significant movements in traditional financial markets. The leading cryptocurrency was down 1.2% over the past 24 hours, largely mirroring the broader crypto market.

Market Movements

While U.S. stocks rallied, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing 1.5%, and safe-haven assets like gold sold off by 1.5%, Bitcoin remained relatively steady. This lack of correlation surprised some observers, given crypto’s reputation for volatility.

“It feels like there is less mental bandwidth for traditional finance players to think about crypto given the preponderance of macro narratives and tradable opportunities,” said Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto trading firm Arbelos Markets.

Ethereum (ETH) traded nearly flat, while Aptos (APT) stood out with a 6% gain. Memecoins, often considered the riskiest corner of the crypto space, saw modest sell-offs as traders took profits following recent surges.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin’s price action has been characterized by consolidation below its recent all-time high of $73,835, reached on March 14. According to technical analysis, BTC is currently trading within a descending broadening wedge pattern, which some analysts interpret as a potential launchpad for future price increases.

Key levels to watch include:

Support: $61,850 and $61,200
Resistance: $62,500 and $63,150

A break above $63,150 could signal a move towards the $64,200 level, with $65,000 and $65,500 as subsequent targets. On the downside, a drop below $61,850 might lead to a test of the $60,000 support level.

The hourly chart shows a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $61,450. The MACD indicator is losing momentum in the bearish zone, while the RSI is below the 50 level, suggesting short-term bearish sentiment.

Analyst Perspectives

Despite the short-term sideways trading, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects. Trader Bob Loukas noted that Bitcoin is entering the third year of its four-year cycle, historically a period of explosive growth.

“An 8 month base has been built, sentiment reset, and rates are easing,” Loukas stated. “I mean, the script is perfect.”

Loukas predicts that Bitcoin could potentially reach a cycle high of $150,000 or more, based on historical patterns and current market conditions.

Other analysts, like CryptoCon, pointed out that Bitcoin’s all-time high in March was ahead of previous market cycle patterns, suggesting the current consolidation phase is not unusual.

Looking Ahead

As Bitcoin closes out the second year of its four-year cycle next month, investors will be watching closely for signs of the next major move. With institutional interest growing and the anticipation of further spot ETF approvals, many in the crypto community remain bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects for the remainder of 2024 and beyond. However, broader economic and geopolitical factors, including tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, continue to inject uncertainty into global markets.

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment observed heightened levels of investor interest in Bitcoin for Q4, noting, “Analysts and community members continue their optimism about ‘Uptober’ and the potential for a bull run in 2024. There is also a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly with the anticipation of further spot ETFs.”

Mexican Peso Falls for Second Straight Session Ahead of Local Inflation Data

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Ignacio Teson

The Mexican peso depreciated for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, as the market remained cautious ahead of September’s local inflation figures and the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

The exchange rate closed at 19.3435 pesos per U.S. dollar, compared to 19.3049 pesos the previous day, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a loss of 5.14 centavos for the peso, equivalent to a 0.27% decline.

The dollar fluctuated within a range between a high of 19.4511 pesos and a low of 19.2236 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.05% to 102.48 units.

Locally, analysts expect that annual inflation continued to decline in September, strengthening the case for the central bank to proceed with further rate cuts. Banxico is anticipated to lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points in November.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

On the global front, traders are reassessing their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts following last week’s strong U.S. employment data and comments from Fed officials. The minutes from the Fed’s meeting will provide more clarity on the outlook.

As the month progresses, news related to the U.S. electoral process, Mexico’s largest trading partner, will become more relevant. Additionally, geopolitical risks remain high, especially with the sudden rise in tensions between Iran and Israel.

Wall Street Closes with Gains; Tech Stocks Lead the Way

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Ignacio Teson

The three main Wall Street indices closed with gains on Tuesday, as a softening of cautious sentiment allowed investors to capitalize on recent declines, particularly in technology stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of 30 major companies, rose 0.30% to 42,080.37 points. The S&P 500, which tracks 500 stocks, gained 0.97% to 5,751.13 points. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.45% to 18,182.92 points.

Oil prices dropped following a significant spike the day before, which was driven by supply concerns amid rising tensions in the Middle East. With no immediate response from Israel to a missile attack from Iran, investors were able to relax as oil prices fell.

Sector-wise, the biggest gains were seen in technology (up 2.12%), communications (1.07%), and consumer discretionary (1.04%), while energy (-2.63%) performed the worst. In the Dow Jones, Intel (up 4.20%) and Salesforce (up 2.46%) were standout performers.

[[SPX-graph]]

As the earnings season kicked off, PepsiCo shares rose 1.92% after reporting better-than-expected profits, despite revealing a drop in sales and adjusting its full-year earnings guidance.

NVIDIA extended its Monday gains, surpassing Microsoft to become the world’s second most valuable company. The stock, which closed at $132, is approaching its all-time high closing price of $135.57, set on June 18. Its highest intraday record of $140.76 was reached on June 20. NVIDIA shares have more than doubled in value this year, recovering from a summer dip.