Forex Signals Brief December 5: Focus on Unemployment Claims After Soft US Jobs Data

Today the Unemployment Claims report takes importance after soft JOLTS and ADP jobs data, and a tumble in Services activity yesterday.

US unemployment claims for last week
US unemployment claims for last week

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XRP Melts While Bitcoin Is On Rampage

XRP saw double-digit losses while Bitcoin hit a new milestone, even though it had gained 400 percent in the previous month.

According to Coinglass data, XRP fell 11%, resulting in over $40 million in liquidations over the previous day. Long positions contributed $30 million to the liquidations, while short positions contributed $8.75 million. After falling below the $2.3 level on December 5, XRP has had difficulty recovering, indicating that sellers are defending the level.

The asset has been driving the charge for the eagerly awaited alt season and is among the top trending altcoins. Despite the sharp increase, XRP’s funding rate is still relatively stable compared to levels during its February 2024 rally and the March 2021 bull market.

A stable funding rate suggests that the market isn’t overly bullish and that there is room for more price growth, which lowers the risk of an overheating situation. Similar to earlier rallies, XRP’s weighted sentiment is likewise low. The asset’s upside uptrend suggests that retail traders may not be the main driver. Panic FUD selling during market downturns is less likely when retailers are not the primary driver of a price rally.

Price actions showed when trades are above their short- and long-term moving averages, a possible pullback will likely be observed, suggesting that the price will return to its average level. Ripple’s token technical indicators—the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index—indicate that it is in an overbought position, indicating a possible weakness. Third, demand is higher than supply, which could indicate that the token is in a markup situation.

Bitcoin on a Rampage

Bitcoin jumped above the long-awaited $102,000 benchmark early Thursday. Coinmarketcap data highlighted that the flagship cryptocurrency was last up more than 5% at $103,072.00. The move was made just hours after President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would call Paul Atkins the Securities and Exchange Commission’s chair.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of over $31 billion this year, and the fourth halving of Bitcoin in April has resulted in tighter supply. Increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin, spearheaded by Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, growing speculation of a strategic Bitcoin national reserve, and Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election have all contributed to the price increase of Bitcoin.

 

Donald Trump Appoints Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins To Lead Agency

President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had appointed former Securities and Exchange Commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the agency.

 

 

Atkins is renowned for his pro-business views and was a commissioner of the SEC from 2002 to 2008. Today, he serves as the chief executive officer of Patomak Global Partners, a consulting firm with clients in the cryptocurrency and financial sectors.

In addition, Atkins is a well-known supporter of crypto assets and, if confirmed by the Senate, could contribute to a sector that Trump has actively pursued.  Trump stated, “Paul is a proven leader for common sense regulations.”. He is a firm believer in the potential of strong, creative capital markets that can adapt to investors’ demand and supply funds to make our economy the best in the world.’

‘To make America better he also understands how important digital assets and other innovations are. “Trump also appointed Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnik and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to lead the departments of Commerce and Treasury, respectively, forming the most pro-crypto cabinet to date.

Critics of the crypto industry are concerned about Trump’s backing of the industry.

Cryptocurrencies have a history of extreme volatility, and scams and frauds have plagued the industry. It is also thought that the currencies are frequently used for illicit purposes, like funding terrorism and the drug trade. There have also been amazing implosions in the industry.

The largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, FTX, went bankrupt in 2022. Sam Bankman-Fried, the company’s founder and CEO, was found guilty of fraud after embezzling billions of dollars from clients. Later, Bankman-Fried received a 25-year prison term.

A Republican Congress could help the industry in addition to the appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC head. With slim majorities, the GOP is expected to hold both the House and the Senate.

The millions of dollars the industry spent to help defeat lawmakers perceived as crypto skeptics, such as Democratic Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, the current Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, who lost his reelection bid in November, helped shape the composition of the incoming Congress.

 

Bitcoin Strikes $103,000 For First Time Ever

Bitcoin jumped above the long-awaited $102,000 benchmark early Thursday. Coinmarketcap data highlighted that the flagship cryptocurrency was last up more than 5% at $103,072.00. The move was made just hours after President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would call Paul Atkins the Securities and Exchange Commission’s chair.

The crypto community saw this as consistent with his pledge to not only replace Gary Gensler, who has become a villain in the industry due to the agency’s regulation-by-enforcement approach to the sector under his leadership but also create a more supportive regulatory environment for the crypto industry in general.

The same day, at the DealBook conference, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell described Bitcoin as “just like gold, only it’s virtual, it’s digital.”. “People are not using it as a store of value or as a form of payment,” he added, adding that “it’s not a competitor for the dollar, it’s a competitor for gold.”.

Bitcoin’s original concept was created during the height of the 2008 financial crisis: according to the Bitcoin Whitepaper, its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, a “peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”.

However, in recent years, the industry has shown a large portion of the institutional investing community the value of Bitcoin. At the beginning of this year, BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and others introduced the first spot bitcoin ETFs, known as bitcoin’s “IPO” moment. The price has increased due to the increasing demand from institutions. The company is getting ready to start spot cryptocurrency trading, according to Rick Wurster, the incoming CEO of Charles Schwab, in November, pending regulatory changes anticipated under the incoming Trump administration.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of over $31 billion this year, and the fourth halving of Bitcoin in April has resulted in tighter supply. Increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin, spearheaded by Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, growing speculation of a strategic Bitcoin national reserve, and Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election have all contributed to the price increase of Bitcoin.

Trump recently nominated cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to succeed Gary Gensler as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. This move could eliminate several regulatory obstacles that have hindered the industry as a whole during the Biden administration.

Trump also appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnik, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, to lead the departments of Treasury and Commerce, respectively in an effort to assemble what may be the most pro-crypto cabinet to date

 

 

PEPE On Steroids Amid Binance U.S. Listing

PEPE has gained popularity in the cryptocurrency community, owing to its inspiration from the well-known meme featuring Pepe the Frog. The token gained notoriety for its sharp price swings, which allowed early investors to profit handsomely from modest investments coin posted a strong rally following Binance’s listing in the world’s largest economy.

 

 

Binance’s US subsidiary announced that it will list the well-known meme coin on its platform. PEPE had a market value of $9 billion at the time of publication, trading at about $0.000022, up 10% in just a day.

Binance U.S stated that deposits for PEPE are now being accepted, in December 5, 2024, trading for the PEPE/USDT pair will begin. The exchange presently accepts popular tokens like BONK, SHIB, and DOGE. Binance.

BONK was just listed in the US last month. PEPE began its journey in April 2023 has gained popularity in the cryptocurrency community, and is based on the well-known meme of Pepe the Frog. The token’s sharp price swings made it famous and allowed early investors to profit handsomely from modest investments.  The token gained notoriety for its sharp price swings, which allowed early investors to profit handsomely from modest investments

PEPE’s market capitalization reached $10 billion last month when it reached an all-time high of $0.00002457. It is currently the third-largest meme token by market valuation, trailing only DOGE and SHIB.

Price spikes for meme coins have frequently occurred after they were listed on well-known centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Uncertainty existed regarding whether the news caused the token to spike or whether meme prices increased with the larger digital asset market.

BNB Hits Record High, Runs Past Solana

Binance Coin is posting high buying pressure amid Bitcoin’s most recent correction. BNB has risen by over 20% to a record high of $792 for the day. The altcoin has gained 200 percent in a year.

 

BNB  has a market valuation of about $113 billion and overtook Solana (SOL) to take the fifth-largest cryptocurrency spot. The altcoin’s daily trading volume increased by 153%, hitting $6.28 billion for the day.

CoinGlass’s data showed a notable increase in BNB’s derivatives trading activity. For example, its open interest increased by nearly 40% to $1.05 billion, and its volume increased by 301% to $6.04 billion, indicating increased market activity and growing speculative interest in the token.

The price hit a new all-time high (ATH) amid the bullish run, and it is currently aiming for $800 as the next resistance and support level. With strong bullish interest, a push towards $800 would be possible if this momentum holds. Thus, the outlook for the altcoin’s price trajectory is extremely favorable.

However, this rally might be halted by possible profit-taking by BNB holders. There may be a correction if investors choose to sell their holdings. The price of BNB cryptocurrency may return to its $725 support level in the event of such a decline. The bullish outlook would be nullified and the market might move into a more cautious phase if the price continued to decline.

It is important to note that the motivations behind BNB’s rally are still unknown. It should be mentioned, though, that traders are becoming more cautious of Bitcoin, which doesn’t appear likely to test $100,000, and are looking to other options that were overlooked in the previous weeks.

Investors are playing it safe ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech tonight and Friday’s NFP report because it is sensitive to macroeconomic data. This is because BNB was one of the major cryptocurrencies that benefited the least from the rally sparked by Trump’s election, making it a privileged target for traders searching for “undervalued” opportunities.

 

 

 

Forex Signals Brief December 4: Will ADP Employment Confirm the JOLTS Report?

Today the US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI will highlight the day, both of which are expected to show a slowdown, while in the evening FED chairman Powell will also hold a speech.

ADP employment jumped last month

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BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Worth $48 Billion

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) now holds more than 500,000 BTC as investors look for exposure to the asset. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF enables investors to access Bitcoin, eliminating the “operational, tax, and custody complexities of holding Bitcoin directly.

The ETF’s Bitcoin holdings totaled 500,380, or approximately $47.5 billion.

Bitcoin is a “unique diversifier” that can “protect against fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical risks,” according to a “white paper” published by BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world with over $10 trillion under management.

Three prominent figures from BlackRock, Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets, Samara Cohen, chief investment officer for ETFs and index investments, and Russell Brownback, head of global macro positioning for fixed income, wrote the report, which demonstrates that bitcoin is the first “truly open-access monetary system” due to its decentralized nature. “.

Additionally, Bitcoin “does not depend on any centralized system” and poses “no traditional counterparty risk,” according to BlackRock’s report.  The global asset manager said, “it is an asset largely detached from certain critical macroeconomic risk factors, including banking system crises, sovereign debt crises, currency devaluation, geopolitical disruptions, and other country-specific political and economic risks.”.

The IBIT ETF has more Bitcoin holdings than the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy.

Data from BitcoinTreasuries, showed MicroStrategy continues to hold the most corporate Bitcoin holdings. . MicroStrategy disclosed it had sold 3. 7 million shares of its Class A common stock this month, using the proceeds to buy 15,400 Bitcoin for nearly $1.05 billion,  raising the total to 402,100.

MARA Holdings recently increased the amount of Bitcoin in its assets. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries, MARA Holdings holds 34,794 BTC, making it the second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

France Propose Tax on unrealized Crypto Gains

French lawmakers are debating a tax on unrealized capital gains for cryptocurrencies, changing how financial assets like Bitcoin are taxed.

 

The plan would classify luxury goods like yachts and dormant real estate as “non-productive property,” along with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The current real estate wealth tax would be replaced by a proposed “unproductive wealth tax” that would apply to them.

The proposal, which was made during the French Senate’s discussion of the 2025 budget, would tax increases in the value of cryptocurrencies even if the assets haven’t been sold. This is a change from the existing system, which levies taxes on cryptocurrencies only when gains are made, like when assets are sold.

The proposal was put to a preliminary vote during the Senate debate. Interestingly, only senators who supported the measure were present, so the vote does not yet represent a final judgment or wider agreement.

The French National Assembly would have to approve the proposal before it could become law. Unrealized gains are the higher value of an asset that hasn’t been sold, for those not familiar with the term. For example, if the value of Bitcoin increases after purchase but is not sold, the owner is not currently required to pay taxes on the increase.

The proposed tax would alter this by imposing levies on that paper gain even in cases where the asset isn’t turned into cash, . This discussion coincides with a global trend in which governments debate how to tax and regulate cryptocurrencies.

Forex Signals Brief December 3: Will JOLTS Jobs Reverse the Declining Trend?

Today we have the Swiss CPI inflation report in the European session, while the JOLTS job openings in the US session will highlight the day.

Headline JOLTS jobs is expected to increase in November

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