Forex Signals Brief December 5: Focus on Unemployment Claims After Soft US Jobs Data
Today the Unemployment Claims report takes importance after soft JOLTS and ADP jobs data, and a tumble in Services activity yesterday.
Yesterday started with the GDP report from Australia for Q3, which missed expectations for both, the annualized GDP and the quarterly data. This indicates a slowing economy, which kept the Australian dollar bearish throughout the day, also contributing for some NZD weakness as well.
Weaker ISM Services and USD Movement
The ISM Services data came in weaker than expected, putting downward pressure on the US dollar across the board. This weakness allowed the USD to decline further, though the losses were tempered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish commentary. Meanwhile, political developments in France had little noticeable impact on the broader market.
AUD Weakness and USD/JPY Rebound
The Australian dollar struggled during Asian trading, facing broad-based selling pressure. US equities, which showed strength during the session, failed to provide significant support. On the other hand, the USD/JPY reversed course after six consecutive days of losses, rallying to a session high of 151.22. Powell’s hawkish remarks and a slightly improved Beige Book helped stabilize sentiment around the dollar, supporting the intraday recovery.
Cryptocurrency Market Shows Volatility
The cryptocurrency market saw sharp movements, with certain altcoins outperforming notably. Later in the session, Bitcoin joined the rally, approaching the $100,000 mark once again. A potential catalyst for this move was the nomination of an SEC commissioner viewed as crypto-friendly, which likely bolstered late-day bids for BTC and added to positive sentiment in the market.
Today’s Market Expectations
The U.S. Jobless Claims report remains a critical indicator of the labor market’s health, offering timely insights into economic conditions. Initial jobless claims continue to range between 200K and 260K, a trend consistent since 2022, while continuing claims hover near cycle highs. In the latest data, continuing claims dipped slightly to 1,907K from 1,908K, with no consensus available for the upcoming release. This week, initial claims are forecasted to rise slightly to 215K from 213K previously.
Yesterday there was some volatility in the forex markets, although most forex pairs traded in a range, and after a bullish start, the USD started retreating. We ended up with three closed trading signals at the ended of the day, all of which were winning forex signals, two in stock markets and one in AUD/USD.
Gold Continues the Consolidation Between MAs
In commodities, gold prices faced significant pressure, dropping over $30 during the European session as renewed USD strength emerged. This follows a brief boost from Thanksgiving-related market dynamics last week. The dollar index climbed 0.5% to a one-week high, bolstered by remarks from former President Donald Trump threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS nations considering alternative currencies to the USD. These comments strengthened the dollar and diminished foreign interest in gold, with prices trading around $2,621.86 per ounce.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
USD/JPY Bounces Above 151 Again
In forex, the USD/JPY pair has been under notable bearish pressure after a two-month rally that added over 17 cents to its value. Following the declaration of martial law in South Korea, the pair experienced a sharp decline, falling below the 150 level and losing 1.5 cents as investors sought safety. Despite this, the pair rebounded, climbing 250 pips to reclaim the 151 level temporarily, before stabilizing near the 150 mark.
USD/JPY – H1 Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Remains Supported by MAs
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced early-week selling pressure but saw a resurgence following the nomination of Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly SEC commissioner. Bitcoin climbed from a low of $94,800 to $98,250 and remains on an upward trajectory, reinforcing investor confidence as it nears the critical $100,000 level.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Hold Above $3,600
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, dipping below $3,000 before recovering above $3,500 and nearing $4,000 in recent trading. Its ability to rise above the 50-day SMA highlights the resilience of the broader cryptocurrency market, supported by growing investor confidence in digital assets.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
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