Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast for 2020: Will the BTC/USD Continue to Rise in Q4? - FX Leaders

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast for 2020: Will the BTC/USD Continue to Rise in Q4?

Posted Thursday, August 13, 2020 by
Arslan Butt • 6 min read

The long-term upward trendline of the BTC/USD hints that it has an abundance of capacity to keep running. The world’s most famous cryptocurrency flew to its highest level in almost a year during the late US session on Monday, trading at over $ 11,000 per coin into the Tuesday Asian sessions, as traders continued to follow a herding behavior. 

Bitcoin, another alternative security to rise through fresh sessions, is an excellent way to cope with the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary easing programs. Yet, major cryptocurrencies could work as a more tactical bet versus inflation and moderate yields.

Current BTC/USD Price: $

Recent Changes in the Bitcoin Price

Extensive analysis has forecast the price for bitcoins will touch almost $20K this year, and will continue growing to almost $400K by 2030. The researchers have also foretold the prices of numerous other major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin Cash, ETH Ethereum, and LTC Litecoin. In turn, this poses the question: with $ 11,000 already having been breached, what is likely to be the Bitcoin price forecast?

Bitcoin Forecast: Q4 2020Bitcoin Forecast: 1 YearBitcoin Forecast: 3 Years
Price: $ 13,875 – 17,250 
Price drivers: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout, Second wave of COVID19, Boosted safe-haven appeal in gold (positive correlation).
Price: $ 12,250 
Price drivers: Bearish correction, Violated double top retest, Year-end profit-taking.
Price: $ 20,000
Price drivers:50 EMA support, ABCD Pattern completion

Bitcoin Live Chart

BTC

BTC/USD – Factors Impacting Bitcoin Prices

The price of the Bitcoin (BTC) has been supported by major exchanges, which have been dropping significantly since mid-March 2020, after the major crash day on March 12.

As per the data from Glassnode, a market and on-chain analytics resource, there were 2.64 million BTC collectively held on exchanges as of July 29. In the meantime, the price of the Bitcoin remains on the bullish track, and it recently crossed a yearly high of $ 11,400. Let’s discuss Bitcoin prediction by various sources. 

Founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Keiser, Forecasts $ 100,000

The founder of Heisenberg Capital and Bitcoin pioneer, Max Keiser, lately used his twitter account to share his opinions on a BTC price of $ 100,000. He began a comparatively long thread on his social media account by simply stating:

“$ 28,000 is in play before we see a pullback – and then we’re headed towards 6-figures.” 

This determination began after the BTC/USD exceeded $10,000, and it has been trading bullishly for some time now. The specialist did not fix any timeline suggesting whether this forecast would come true by the end of 2020.

Interestingly, numerous people have since highlighted that the drop in the Greenback might be accountable for this. The precious metals, gold, and silver have also moved up in price. 

Citibank Projects $ 120,000 by 2021 – Here’s Why

One of the more interesting forecasts came from the financial institution, Citibank

as it projected Bitcoin prices would reach $ 120,000 by 2021. Although this analysis is credited to Citibank, it’s not an official source. Anyways, what are the hurdles that Bitcoin needs to battle on the way? The real test for BTC/USD will be at $ 13,850, and if it manages to break this, we could see massive buying above this level.

In another forecast based on the progress made in 2016, Citibank revealed that related trends had been experienced this year. Furthermore, the institution shared the following:

“Initial good resistance is met at $ 10,500 – $ 10,820. If that gives way, the next good level will be $ 13,850, and above that, $ 19,511. If $ 19,511 were to give way, well, the chart speaks for itself.” 

By “the chart speaks for itself”, Citibank contends that BTC could touch as high as $ 120,846.80, which is quite a princely BTC/USD price forecast to consider. That is why traders are adding buying trades in the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin, and a sudden surge in its demand is quite likely to boost it’s prices pretty soon. 

Panxora Projects $7,000 BTC/USD Price by 2020 Year-End – Here’s Why

In an email correspondence between Forbes and the CEO of Panxora, a crypto analyst company, Gavin Smith, the latter displayed continuous volatility till 2020’s end. Therefore, he supposes that the BTC/USD price value may sink to as low as $7K. Nevertheless, the following action will be the year of an all-time high (ATH) for the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin. His logic appears to align with that of the CEO of Crypto Quant, who shared that:

“A short term disaster [will happen] this year ere the real rally takes hold [in 2021].” To add more to this, he said, “the markets are pulled on the one hand by the inflation hedge story driving bitcoin higher while at the same time the global economy is suffering a massive demand shock with the potential to drive bitcoin lower.”

S2F( Stock-to-Flow) Projects $55K BTC/USD by 2020 Year-End 

The S2F model stands for Stock-to-Flow Model, and it seems to have come up with the $55K forecast based on May 2020’s event. Notably, the inventor behind S2F  stated that:

“The predicted market value for Bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a Bitcoin price of $55,000,” in addition to this, “gold and silver, which are diverse markets, are in line with the bitcoin model values for SF.”

Summing up S2F sentiment, the model is in support of bullish bias in BTC/USD prices. 

Precious Metal, Gold, vs. Bitcoin

This week, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered to its 2020 high of $ 11,392, supported by the increasing correlation with gold, and currently, Bitcoin’s monthly correlation with the yellow metal on daily returns sits at 0.66, as per the CryptoCompare report. The correlation between these two commodities started to grow as gold crossed the record high of $ 1,900, nearing a new high, before pulling back alongside the Bitcoin. 

Considering the growing correlation, this represents the trend shift, as the relationship between the two had previously been falling, as per data from the Kraken exchange’s research team. As a result, the previous correlations between Bitcoin and gold led to a rise in the price of the Bitcoin (BTC).

As we all know, the US dollar and the global economies continue facing the damage from the results of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, it seems likely that the store of value assets, like Bitcoin and gold, will continue to be in high demand into the future. The last time there was a mild correlation between Bitcoin and the precious metal (around 0.5) was towards the end of 2018. We have already talked about the time when, a month earlier, in November 2018, Bitcoin faced a 50% drop, which was triggered by the Bitcoin-cash war.

However, on one side, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has surged, while on the other hand, the Ether’s (ETH) correlation with Bitcoin started to decrease at around the same time, with the figure now sitting at 0.56.

US Dollar and Bitcoin 

The surge in Bitcoin could also be attributed to the inflating US dollar, triggered by the fears of a collapse of the US economy. The failure of the COVID-19 stimulus package and the overheated stock market urged traders to invest in the safety of hard assets, such as gold, and increasingly, Bitcoin. 

Moving on, the Bitcoin may finally be ready for another major bullish market cycle, as the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges decreases, while, at the same time, retail and institutional interest appear to be picking up.

Bitcoin and Tether (USDT) Exchange Inflows

The exchanges indicate that market players are showing more interest in holding their Bitcoins long term, by withdrawing them from exchanges, in order to control their own private keys directly, as per the markets analytics firm, Arcane Research.

Apart from this, the recent on-going rise in Tether (USDT) exchange inflows, which hit their 2020 high yesterday, and the overall supply that is now almost $ 10 billion, the number of digital dollars waiting on the sidelines to buy BTC is possibly more than ever. Thus, the potential of a surge in Bitcoin prices in the coming days seems solid. 

Technical Analysis – Can We Expect a Bearish Correction in Bitcoin – BTC/USD? 

Speaking about the market’s technical side, Bitcoin is trading with a solid bullish bias, having soared to the $ 11,306 level. In the monthly time-frame, the Bitcoin has violated the symmetrical triangle pattern within the $ 9,875 range. The recent bullish engulfing candle on the monthly time-frame suggests strong odds of further buying in Bitcoin. 

Taking a look at the long-term forecast for Bitcoin, the leading crypto pair seems bullish. On the higher side, Bitcoin may find its next resistance within the $ 12,017 range, while a bullish crossover of $ 12,017 could lead Bitcoin prices towards $ 13,875. Above this, $ 17,250 is likely to work as the next resistance.

BTC/USD Bullish Engulfing, RSI, MACD and 50 EMA - All Suggest BuyingBTC/USD Bullish Engulfing, RSI, MACD, and 50 EMA – All Suggest Buying

On the monthly chart, the 50-periods Exponential Moving Average suggests a strong bullish bias, but at the same time, it also suggests solid chances of a bearish correction, as its value remains at the 6,397 level, which is far away from the current market price of 11,275.

BTC/USD Fibonacci Retracement

BTC/USD Fibonacci Retracement

Speaking about Bitcoin price forecast in the middle of 2021, we can expect Bitcoin prices to drop to $ 12,250, in the wake of bearish correction, or perhaps to complete a 50% Fibonacci retracement. In order to see a bearish retracement, the double top resistance level of $ 17,174 and the closing of candles below this level seem solid. We may see a selling bias below $ 17,170 until the previously violated resistance becomes a support level of $ 12,250. 

A lot of exciting aspects have been bestowed by some of the famous specialists within the crypto space. Each team appears to have a strong argument in the store, making it all the more fascinating to observe what’s about to unwind near the end of 2020. Those who see a bullish event are currently playing tug of war with those who foresee a bearish development. Let’s brace for the second half of the year, keeping a closer eye on the fundamental side of the market to capture any change in Bitcoin sentiments.

Good luck!

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About the author

Arslan Butt // Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.