Forex Signals Brief December 4: Will ADP Employment Confirm the JOLTS Report?
Today the US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI will highlight the day, both of which are expected to show a slowdown, while in the evening FED chairman Powell will also hold a speech.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today started with Australia’s Q3 GDP report, which grew by 0.3%, missing the 0.4% estimate but improving slightly from Q2’s 0.2%. Year-on-year growth slowed to 0.8%, below expectations. While gross fixed capital expenditures rebounded strongly at 1.5%, household spending stagnated, contributing 0% to growth. Government spending played a crucial role, adding 0.6% and propping up overall GDP amidst weak private sector performance.
The upcoming US ADP employment report is expected to show a rise of 150K jobs, down from the previous 233K. While the ADP report has a poor track record of accurately predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), its release has become a significant market event due to the recent heightened sensitivity to labor market data. The latest economic surprises have led to hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, but this trend is unlikely to be further influenced by the ADP data alone.
Meanwhile, the US ISM Services PMI is forecasted at 55.6, slightly below the prior reading of 56.0. While this survey has remained largely range-bound since 2022, offering little in the way of clear trends, the last report hit a new cycle high. This reflects an ongoing economic recovery bolstered by expectations of future rate cuts and optimism surrounding a more business-friendly policy environment under the incoming administration.
Yesterday the USD started retreating after moving higher on Monday, although the price action was slow in most forex pairs, apart form the Yen which surged. We had many trading signals open, but only four closed yesterday, three of which ended up being winning forex signals.
Gold Consolidates Between MAs
Gold prices faced significant pressure today, plunging over $30 during the European session as renewed USD strength emerged. Last week’s Thanksgiving-related market conditions had temporarily buoyed gold, but that support faded as the dollar index rose by 0.5%, hitting a one-week high. The USD’s rally was bolstered by former President Donald Trump’s comments threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS nations should they adopt a currency other than the US dollar. This rhetoric further dampened foreign interest in gold, which traded at approximately $2,621.86 per ounce, struggling under the weight of a stronger dollar.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
USD/JPY Falls Below 150
Heightened political tensions spurred demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY). The risk-averse sentiment pushed the USD/JPY pair below the pivotal 149 level earlier in the day, reflecting a cautious market mood. Additionally, demand for US Treasuries increased, signaling investor hesitancy. Despite earlier declines below 150 and 149 this week, the USD/JPY retraced nearly one cent higher, recovering above the 149 mark by the session’s close.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Remains Supported by MAs
Bitcoin faced selling pressure as the day progressed, reflecting its recovery phase during the quieter Thanksgiving trading period. After nearing $90,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin managed to regain ground, trading at approximately $94,950—a 3% decline or $3,110 loss on the day. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains on a generally positive trajectory, sustaining investor confidence as it recovers from Tuesday’s low of $90,638 and trades near the critical $100,000 level.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Hold Above $3,600
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, briefly dipping below $3,000 before rebounding above $3,500. This $400 recovery highlights Ethereum’s technical strength and growing investor optimism in digital assets. Its climb above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) underscores the broader resilience in the cryptocurrency market.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
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