USD/TRY Signals & Technical Analysis
About the USD/TRY (US Dollar & Turkish lira)
The USD/TRY pair is the abbreviated term used for the US Dollar & Turkish lira. This pair does not have a nickname. Before we get into the particulars, what exactly does the USD/TRY rate mean? The exchange rate tells you how many Turkish liras (the quote currency) are required to purchase one US Dollar (base currency). For example, if the pair is trading at 5.72, it means it takes 5.72 Turkish liras to buy 1 US Dollar.
The USD/TRY exchange rate is currently trading at 23.63, down from its high of 24.00 on June 15, 2023. The currency pair is under pressure due to a number of factors, including:
- The strengthening of the US dollar against other major currencies
- The slowdown in Turkey's economic growth
- The widening of the Turkey-US trade deficit
Looking ahead, the USD/TRY exchange rate is expected to remain under pressure. However, there are a number of factors that could support the currency pair, including:
- A slowdown in the US economic growth
- A trade war between the US and Turkey
- A depreciation of the Turkish lira
The USD/TRY exchange rate is currently trading at 23.63. You can track the latest price movements on a number of forex trading platforms.
The USD/TRY exchange rate is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months. However, there are a number of factors that could support the currency pair, including a slowdown in the US economic growth, a trade war between the US and Turkey, or a depreciation of the Turkish lira.
The USD/TRY exchange rate is currently trading in a downtrend. The currency pair has been forming lower highs and lower lows since June 15, 2023. The RSI is also in a downtrend, which suggests that the selling pressure is likely to continue.
Breaking Down USD/TRY
The United States dollar, or the American dollar, is the official currency, or money, of the United States of America and is also used in a number of different countries across the border. It is also the standard money for global markets selling goods such as gold and oil (fuel). While writing, the symbol for the American dollar is the dollar sign ($). Dollars can also be known as USD (US Dollar).
TRY stands for Turkish currency, which is now in the second issue period. This currency currently uses in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as well as in Turkey. The new Turkish lira breaks into 100 new kurus coins, the lira officially has the symbol YTL. It was introduced in 2005. The Turkish new lira is equivalent to 1-million of the old Turkish lira.
Turkish Lira's new version was founded in 2005 following the value of the past Turkish Lira dropped to drastically low levels. The Turkish economy relies on foreign cash looking for short term profits making the Lira subject to severe depreciation. Political situations and European Union's economic problems have delayed Turkey's effort to join the Eurozone.
What Determines the USD/TRY Exchange Rate?
Several factors can impact the USD/TRY rate valuation, including:
The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is the central bank of the United States and is commonly known as the Fed. It controls the U.S. monetary and financial system. The Federal Reserve System is composed of a central governmental agency in Washington, D.C., the Board of Governors, and twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks in larger cities across the United States.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, CBRT (Turkish: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, TCMB) is the central bank of Turkey and is founded as a joint-stock company on 11 June 1930. Besides this, the CBRT maintains the monetary policy to pursue and the policy instruments to use in achieving price stability in Turkey. That means the CBRT enjoys instrument independence. To attain its purpose of price stability, the CBRT has completed a full-fledged inflation targeting regime since 2006.
The movement in American and Turkish economic events determine the exchange rates. Top of the line economic events include GDP, Employment Change, Industrial Production, and Consumer Price Index. Better than forecast data increases the demand for related currency and impacts the value of either the Europian and Turkish, causing fluctuations in the USD/TRY exchange rate.
Major Economic Events:
Gross Domestic Product – The gross domestic product is the central measure of economic growth in the region.
Employment Change – The currency pair is also sensitive to changes in employment, as slacks in the labor market causes a drop in Inflation rates.
Consumer Price Index – Since one of the goals of the Fed and CBRT is to maintain price stability, they keep an eye on inflation indicators such as the CPI. If the annual CPI deviates from the central
Industrial Production – This measures a change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
Political Events - Another critical factor is the political aspect. Instability, as seen in the Brexit referendum, can entirely change the direction of the currencies. So, stay up-to-date on the latest political and economic news.
Correlation is merely a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.
Positive correlation – The positive relationship merely is when pairs move in tandem with each other.
In the forex world, the USD/TRY - EUR/TRY, USD/TRY - GBP/TRY, and USD/TRY - GBP/MXN are positively correlated
Negative correlation – In contrast, a negative relationship is when forex pairs move in the opposite direction. For example, USD/TRY - EUR/USD, USD/TRY - EUR/GBP, and USD/TRY - USD/THB
The Euro is one of the most important alternatives to the U.S. dollar among fiat currencies. This is why there is often a positive link between the Euro and gold: both assets are negatively correlated with the greenback. However, This is because gold is not merely an alternative against the U.S. dollar, but also against the current monetary system based on fiat currencies. Therefore, in some cases the Euro and the dollar both lose (or gain) ground against gold.
The USD/TRY is traded in amounts denominated in the US Dollar.
Standard lot Size: 100,000
Mini lot size: 10,000
Price minimum increment: 0.00001
Pip Value: $1.75
The USD/TRY exchange rate is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months. However, there are a number of factors that could support the currency pair, including a slowdown in the US economic growth, a trade war between the US and Turkey, or a depreciation of the Turkish lira. Traders should keep an eye on these factors to trade the USD/TRY exchange rate.
Please note that this is not financial advice and you should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.