Forex Signals July 19: UK, Canada Retail Sales Closing the Week

Yesterday started with the employment report from Australia, showing a decent jump of 50.2K new jobs in June, confirming that the employment sector remains on solid ground. That sent the AUD 20 pips higher against the USD in the Asian session, but at the end of the day, AUD/USD ended up lower as the USD made a comeback in the US session.

UK and Canada retail sales are expected to turn negative

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Bitcoin Cools Off: Will BTC Resist Bears And Break Higher To $72,000?

Bitcoin is printing lower lows in the daily chart. The recoil from recent highs should be a concern, denting the expansion higher and capping gains. However, from candlestick arrangement, buyers have the upper hand as long as Bitcoin is steady above $62,500, the STH average cost basis level. If buyers soak in all selling pressure, rejecting lower prices today, a recovery above local highs and ideally $66,000 would set the ball rolling for $72,000.

For now, Bitcoin is in red, shedding 2% in 24 hours, but is up 12% in the past week. Even though there are hints of strength, at least for now, prices must float above crucial support levels over the weekend. The drop in prices, possibly due to profit taking, has seen the average trading volume also fall to $27 billion in the last day.

Bitcoin Daily Chart for July 19

Traders are keeping tabs, closely monitoring the following trending Bitcoin news:

  • When Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, prices shot higher. The uptrend remains, and prices could explode to all-time highs in the coming days. Rumor has it that Trump would make BTC a strategic reserve asset if he clinches the presidency.
  • Over the past two weeks, there have been major exchange outflows. Billions have been transferred from top exchanges, sparking a rally that lifted prices close to $66,000 early this week.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] remains in an uptrend despite recent losses.

The coin is up nearly 20% from July lows.

Moreover, since Bitcoin is above the 20-day moving average in a breakout formation, bulls have the upper hand.

As things stand, every low above $62,500 might offer entries for buyers to load the dips targeting $66,000 and $72,000.

This preview stands because BTC is already inside the bull bar of July 15. The recent series of lower lows has been accompanied by light trading volumes, cementing the current outlook.

Ethereum Drops But Must Break $3,500 Amid Solana’s Tough Challenge

Ethereum is printing lower lows and finding rejection from spot rates. After two days of retracement, the bar on July 18 had a long upper wick, pointing to selling pressure. Looking at price action, it is likely that yesterday’s weakness might spill over. This development could fast-track the sell-off below $3,300, pouring cold water on bullish hopes. Even so, aggressive optimists might see this as an opportunity to load some more considering expectations of spot Ethereum ETF approval next week.

The result of yesterday’s sell-off is evident. Ethereum is under pressure, dropping by 2% in 24 hours. However, the coin is up 11% in the last week of trading. Since sellers appear to be pressing on, falling prices continue to diffuse the upside momentum forcing traders to take profit. On the previous day, the average trading volume remains flat at around $15 billion.

Ethereum Daily Chart for July 19

For what traders expect going forward, they should closely watch the following trending Ethereum news:

  • With Solana prices rallying and developers making enhancements, the modern blockchain has flipped to Ethereum, looking at processed DEX volumes. This surge is primarily because the network is a go-to platform for meme coin projects and traders.
  • According to reports, the United States SEC has green-lit three spot ETF issuers to launch next orts. However, like what happened when spot Bitcoin ETFs hit the market, experts expect all spot Ethereum ETFs to launch the same day.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is in an uptrend at spot rates.

Even with recent weakness, there is a bull flag and the July 15 bar anchors the current formation.

Traders might consider buying the dip as long as Ethereum is trending inside this bullish bar. This will be valid if prices trend above the 20-day moving average or $3,200. Any drop below this will swing price action in favor of sellers.

On the other hand, a clean break above $3,500, registering fresh weekly highs, could see ETH fly to $3,700.

If the bar is with high trading volume, a base would have been set for prices to rally.

XRP Plunging Amid Ripple CEO’s Assurance: Is The Bull Run Over?

XRP fell sharply yesterday, retesting $0.55. What’s clear now is a double-bar bearish formation in the daily chart, signaling weakness. Even though the uptrend remains, it remains to be seen whether today will see XRP plunge some more. Buyers must flow back, taking advantage of lower prices to double down in anticipation of more gains. For now, the immediate resistance is this week’s highs and later $0.66.

The drop of July 18 means XRP is down 6% in 24 hours. However, considering the explosion of the past few days, the coin is up 21%. Interestingly, the average trading volume remains elevated at over $2.4 billion despite the retracement. As long as this remains, traders might consider trading with the primary trend set in motion after the July 15 bar.

XRP Daily Chart for July 19

Traders are keeping tabs on the following XRP and Ripple news:

  • Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, expects the multi-year court case filed by the United States SEC in late December to “end soon.”  Traders have been banking on XRP to rip higher once the case is settled. For now, it remains tentative.
  • Despite the cool-off, XRP overtook Bitcoin in South Korea. Even with the drop of July 18, there were 2X more traders of XRP than Bitcoin.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is still bullish.

The uptrend remains, and the retest of $0.55 on July 18 might offer traders an opportunity.

Notice that the bear bar, though engulfing, has lighter trading volume than the July 17 and 16 bars.

If there is a push lower, there would be serious questions about the uptrend.

However, if buyers prop up prices today, aggressive traders could load up, targeting $0.66 and $0.74.

Any wide-ranging bar below $0.55 would see XRP drop back towards $0.50.

Dogwifhat on a rampage despite lagging Solana

Solana-based meme coin WIF rose to prominence as one of the top performers this July, despite Solana (SOL) trailing the overall crypto market, WIF is on the rise.WIF Bulls appear to be fully engaged. It has increased by more than 50% over the last seven days, making it the best performer on a weekly spectrum

Interestingly, out of all the top meme crypto assets with a market valuation above $1 billion, WIF is the only token in the green. Like a big portion of the crypto market, Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), PEPE, BONK, FLOKI, and BRETT are all in the red. Dogwifhat is still the fourth-biggest memecoin in market valuation, trailing only Pepe, valued at about $5 billion, almost twice as much as Dogwifhat.

 

 

The price of WIF increased from $1.5, gaining traction and closing at $2.37. Important indicators that indicate buyers are in control, such as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.19, reinforce the bullish trend.

The bullish outlook is strengthened by the affirmation of a buy signal by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This would motivate traders to place more buy orders, which can likely push WIF over the resistance level of $2.5. Bulls must overcome seller congestion at the blue declining trend line to accomplish a two-fold rally and hit the previous all-time high of $4.85.

Solana faced selling pressure close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of the previous negative move, despite testing the $160 resistance.
There are immediate resistance levels at $162 and $172. Another bullish wave is probably in the works if there is a clear daily closing above $162. Solana may aim for stronger resistances around $188 and possibly $192, with a potential extension towards the $200 level, if it can break above $162.

Following its ride on the meme coin craze from March to April, WIF took a significant setback that resulted in a month-long consolidation. WIF stayed comparatively stable during this cycle, despite other meme coins like PEPE and BONK experiencing increases. Several members of the crypto community speculated that WIF had peaked.

An asset’s social volume and investors’ feelings are blended to provide a balanced viewpoint captured by the Santiment Weighted Sentiment indicator. When there is a rise in social volume surrounding an asset, the indicator surges, and most of the messages are favorable. When the emotion is negative the volume is still strong. It remains at zero if the social volume is high but the sentiment is ambiguous. It also remains close to 0 at low volumes.

The weighted sentiment of WIF is 0.6, which suggests that the cryptocurrency community has a positive outlook. The social context of Santiment also reveals that terms like “high” and “rally” have been frequently used about WIF. Corrections occasionally follow a token when the crowd becomes too exuberant, even though this suggests that there may be more upsides.

Since its launch on November 20, 2023, the value of this meme coin has increased by about 2800%. Based on its popularity, the WIF price prediction indicates a bullish performance to outperform well-known meme coins like BONK and Shiba Inu.

Ether Bulls show exhaustion despite SEC’s approval

Ethereum surged by double digits in the past week, but the bullish momentum was stopped by solid resistance near $3,500. On July 18, there was a following decline to $3,400 even though the SEC approved two more Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ether’s futures market hasn’t seen much activity despite this encouraging trend.

 

At least three issuers were reportedly granted provisional approval by the SEC on July 23 to start trading spot Ether ETFs. Following revisions to the funds’ S-1 registrations, eight spot Ether ETFs are pending final regulatory clearance.

Ethereum’s daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency started a bullish climb, breaking above the 100-day ($3.3K) and 200-day ($3.1K) moving averages, following a noticeable increase in purchasing pressure close to the significant $3K support region.

In addition, ETH has recovered the $3.5K resistance zone, a major challenge for buyers in recent months. This price movement suggests buyers actively participate in the market and try to set a new yearly high.

However, Ethereum has developed a sideways wedge pattern. After a brief period of market consolidation, it is anticipated to resume its upward trend to surpass the wedge’s upper boundary at $3.7K. A new annual high above $4K might result if this barrier is successfully overcome.

The annualized premium, or basis rate, for Ether fixed-month contracts, is currently 11%, which suggests a reasonable level of optimism. Nevertheless, considering the prospective inflows from the impending spot ETF launch in the US, it is rather alarming that this indicator has not maintained levels above 12% for the last month. In contrast, the base rate for Bitcoin is likewise 11%, suggesting that Ethereum investors are not overly optimistic.
Ether Bulls’ gas would be elevated if the anticipation of robust spot ETF net inflows is validated, the present lack of confidence allows space for a surprise.  Ether’s rally hasn’t been impressive despite a favorable scenario for risk-on assets suggests that investors are not as enthusiastic, which lessens the likelihood of a bull run above $4,000.

The market is showing strength as the current consolidation phase validates the recent breakout above the trendline and completes a pullback to it. The price will soon resume its positive trend if it closes above its last central pivot of $3524.

Bitcoin Bulls Overcome Mt. Gox Sellers: Up Next $72,000?

Bitcoin is balanced at spot rates, but the uptrend remains. As of writing, BTC is trending above the all-important $62,500 support level and way above the $60,000 line. Even though buyers are in control, there could be more gains if there is a spirited tussle, lifting the coin above $66,000. Analysts are confident that a breakout could be the base for further gains, possibly to all-time highs in a buy trend continuation formation.

As it is, Bitcoin is steady, adding roughly 1% in the last day though it is up 12% in the previous week. Meanwhile, the lack of activity means trading volume is lower, shrinking to $30 billion. Technically, buyers have a chance. However, as mentioned earlier, what’s needed is a conclusive close above key liquidation levels. In that event, a wave of liquidation and trader excitement would push engagement higher.

Bitcoin Daily Chart for July 18

The following Bitcoin news stories are trending today:

  • Amid surging Bitcoin prices, traders show that open interest, a metric that gauges the number of open leveraged short or long positions, shot by at least 13%. The higher it is, the more interest there is from traders, especially considering the recent lift-off from June pits.
  • As Mt. Gox distributes BTC to victims, some analysts are confident, expecting holders to benefit. In their preview, only “paper hands” will suffer as they try to tap into price volatility by opening leveraged positions on perpetual crypto trading platforms.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The path of least resistance is northwards.

[[BTC/USD]] is also in the green, adding 12% in the previous week.

As prices retest $66,000, aggressive traders can consider loading the dips. This preview holds as long as prices are above $62,500.

Meanwhile, conservative traders can wait for a clean break above $66,000. If the breakout is with rising volume, the probability of BTC rallying to over $72,000 will be high.

Ethereum up 20% in 10 Days: Why Are ETH Bulls Hesitant To Break $3,700?

Ethereum fell yesterday, slowing down for the second consecutive day, looking at the price action in the daily chart. Still, the uptrend remains, based on technical formation and the fact that fundamental factors are at play. In the short to medium term, buyers are confident that ETH will breach above immediate resistance levels. If that’s the case, the coin could expand to as high as $3,700 in the days ahead before targeting 2024 highs.

Bulls are defiant despite the recent state of price action. So far, Ethereum is stable in the past day but up 10% in the previous week. At the same time, the average trading volume stands at over $15 billion; a drop from early this week. Still, buyers are in command with most hopeful but waiting for fundamental triggers before committing.

Ethereum Daily Chart for July 18

Ethereum traders and investors are closely monitoring the following news events:

  • As the broader crypto community waits for the United States SEC to approve the first spot Ethereum ETF, some analysts predict that ETH will rally to fresh all-time highs of $8,000. In the last Bull Run, Ethereum rose to nearly $5,000 before plunging to break $1,000 in 2022.
  • Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust is now trading at a discount. Before the United States SEC fast-tracked the approval of spot ETFs, institutions got exposure to ETH via this product. It remains to be seen whether this will continue in the days ahead.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is stable in the past 24 hours.

Even so, the coin is up 20% from this month’s low, and prices are in a bullish formation above $3,300.

Technically, as long as prices are still inside the bull bar of July 15, every dip might offer entries for traders targeting $3,700.

This outlook is valid from an effort-versus-result perspective, mainly if losses occur with relatively low trading volume.

Any sharp close below $3,200 will cancel out this bullish preview, questioning the strength of buyers.

XRP Gains 30% In 7 Days: Is Trump’s Assassination Attempt Driving Ripple?

XRP bulls are unrelenting despite the cool-off earlier today. The leg up of this week is refreshing for the diamond hands that held through the turbulence of April through early June. At some point, XRP flash crashed below $0.40, forcing some traders to capitulate. However, looking at price action, buyers are getting started. With $0.55 broken and Ripple bulls angling at $0.66, upbeat buyers are now angling at 2024 highs.

The impressive performance saw XRP briefly reclaim its sixth position in the market cap leaderboard, flipping USDC. So far, the coin has a market cap of over $32 billion. It is down 4% in 24 hours but added over 30% in the past week. The upswing has also seen the average trading volume rise to over $3.8 billion in the past day.

XRP Daily Chart for July 18

Traders and investors are closely tracking the following XRP and Ripple news:

  • Even though 150 million XRP were released from a wallet associated with Ripple, it didn’t prevent the market from soaring. As of July 17, the coin was on its 10th day of steady higher highs.
  • Analysts note that the attempt on former president Donald Trump’s life, coupled with the recovery of Bitcoin and news of Ripple lawyers holding private talks with the United States SEC, are primary drivers of price. At this pace, however, it remains to be seen whether bulls will drive the coin above $0.66.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP\USD]] is firm at spot rates even with losses earlier today.

Of note, the coin is within a bullish breakout formation following the complete reversal of April 13 losses on July 16.

The confirmation of buyers yesterday means the trend is shifting fast, favoring bulls.

For this reason, aggressive trend traders might look to load the dips, angling for $0.74.

Already, bull bars are banding along the upper BB, pointing to unusually high buying pressure, a massive boost for trend traders.

If there are losses below $0.55, however, it could slow down the uptrend.

Forex Signals Brief July 17: UK and New Zealand CPI Highlight the Day

Yesterday was quiet during the Asian and European sessions, however, we had the ZEW economic sentiment report for the Eurozone and Germany. Both reports came below expectations, showing that the Eurozone economy is increasingly showing signs of weakness, as high ECB interest rates have hiked borrowing costs, while the political landscape seems unstable.

CPI Inflation is slowing globally

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