Bitcoin Stuck: Options Traders Super Bullish, Expect A Spike To $80,000

Bitcoin is in red at spot rates, moving flat inside the bull bar of May 20. While there is optimism about trend continuation, there are risks of prices tanking if buyers fail to show up. Though yesterday’s bar closed as bearish, the long lower wick suggests that prices recovered in the late NY session. In the sessions to come, the reaction at around $66,000 and $72,000 will determine the short-term trend.

Currently, Bitcoin is stable on the last day and week. Interestingly, while prices are moving sideways, participation is decent and above average at over $28 billion. Accordingly, in the days ahead, how prices react above or below the immediate reaction levels will trigger how traders engage. A spike above $72,000 will be a huge boost for sentiment, and likely to pump the average trading volume above the $50 billion level.

Bitcoin Daily Chart for May 29

Besides prices, Bitcoin traders should closely watch the following news events:

  • Yesterday, billions worth of Bitcoin from Mt. Gox creditors were moved. After the devastating hack in 2014, victims will receive compensation by October 2024. It is not immediately clear why the Mt. Gox stash was moved.
  • Most BTC traders are bullish, as the Options market shows. Despite prices failing to crack $72,000, most bets are at $80,000 and $90,000, respectively. By May 31, most bets placed for the coin to trade above $72,000 would be worthless should prices remain at spot levels.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The path of least resistance, at least from a top-down preview, is still northwards.

So far, [[BTC/USD]] prices remain below $72,000 but are encouragingly trending above $66,000.

From a volume analysis, buyers have the upper hand as long as prices are inside the May 20 bull bar.

Risk-off aggressive traders may consider longing the dips if prices are above $66,000, aiming to align with the defining bull bar of May 20.

However, a more conservative approach might be to wait for a clean break, either above $72,000 or $66,000, before trading with the emerging trend.

Ethereum Firm Above $3,700: Will ETH Follow The Solana Route And 10X?

Ethereum closed bearish for the first time this week. Even though the contraction is normal and expected, traders might consider taking longs on dips. This preview is valid since the general trend is upward, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. So far, buyers have the upper end, printing higher as they target fresh Q2 2024 highs. As it is, ETH might pierce $4,000 and March 2024 highs.

After dropping to as low as $2,800 in May, Ethereum is currently up 35% from this month’s low. There could be more room for growth, but this largely depends on sentiment and whether buyers can sustain the rally to spot rates. In the past day, ETH has been mostly stable, up 2% in the past week of trading. At the same time, the average trading volume is decent, standing at over $18 billion.

Ethereum daily chart for May 29

Traders should closely monitor the following Ethereum news events:

  • One analyst still thinks there is far more room for ETH to expand. This is because the United States SEC did a complete turnaround by approving the listing of spot ETH ETFs. Just like Solana took seven months to rally from sub $20 to over $200, the ETH leg up won’t be in one candlestick.
  • Richard Heart, the founder of PulseChain, thinks ETH has an edge over BTC. In his assessment, Mt. Gox doesn’t have ETH to dump. For this reason, investors should consider rotating into ETH.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] remains in an uptrend, even with prices stalling at around spot rates.

Technically, traders should look to load on dips, expecting further gains above $4,000 and $4,100.

This preview only holds provided Ethereum remains above the local support at $3,700.

Still, even if sellers break below this line, ideal zone of support will expand $400 lower to $3,300. Only dips below this level, reversing all gains of May 20, will nullify the bullish outlook.

In the short term, ETH buyers should target $4,100.

However, any surge above this line will open up the coin to $4,900 and all-time highs.

XRP Stalls above $0.50: Will Ripple Rip Higher On RWA Narrative and Stablecoin Launch?

XRP price action is uneventful and bearish at spot rates. There were signs that bulls would take over, but this has not been the case. Looking at Ripple prices, sellers are dominant and inside an ascending triangle. This outlook will only change should there be a decisive close above $0.55 or below the $0.46 to $0.50 support zone—or the support trend line of the triangle.

Despite the current state of affairs, XRP is perched at seventh in the market cap leaderboard. Until there is a clean break in either direction, prices will remain stagnant. Interestingly, even with this state of inactivity, the average trading volume is over $1.1 billion.

XRP daily chart for May 29

The following XRP and Ripple news are worth tracking in the coming sessions:

  • ETC Group, a crypto ETP provider, is partnering with Zodia Custody, a Ripple partner, to further the crypto ETP space. In this arrangement, Zodia will secure digital assets backing all spot ETPs issued by ETC Group.
  • Even as XRP prices move sideways at spot rates, one analyst thinks the coin has more upside potential because of, among others, the tokenization or RWA narrative and the upcoming launch of the Ripple stablecoin.

XRP Price Analysis

Looking at the candlestick arrangement, [[XRP/USD]] remains under immense selling pressure.

Though prices are inside a rising wedge, XRP sellers of mid-April 2024 still dominate.

Unless there is a firm close above $0.55, the path of least resistance remains.

On the flip side, $0.50 is a strong, reliable support level.

Therefore, if prices are inside this zone, traders can adopt a wait-and-see approach.

If bulls take over, closing firmly above $0.55 on rising volume, traders can target $0.60 and $0.66, aligning with the bull bars of May 15 and 20.

Forex Signals Brief May 28: Back to Trading After A Long Weekend

Despite Memorial Day in the US and the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK, market activity persisted, albeit at a slower pace. The declining trend of the US dollar continued, contributing to a positive market sentiment. The pound sterling and commodity-linked currencies benefited the most from the risk-on environment.

US and UK traders are back to work today
US and UK traders are back to work today

Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief May 28: Back to Trading After A Long Weekend”

Pepe hits a record high but faces a gloomy technical picture

Pepe smashed its record high on Monday. The excitement around the SEC’s approval of an Ethereum spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) served as the impetus for this rash action. Pepe, an ERC-20 token, has benefited from the fervor around this ETH-based news.  

ETH Exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings have caused traders to perceive Ethereum-based meme coins as opportunities to profit.  

PEPE saw an 8% price increase and an all-time high of $0.00001725. Since the Ether ETF filings were accepted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 20, there has been a notable 88% gain. 

Following the clearance of the ETF registrations, several other Ethereum-standard meme-coins, such as Mog Coin and Dogecoin Shiba Inu, also saw notable increases. 

The increasing interest of investors in Pepe is further supported by on-chain analytics. The number of wallets engaging with the Pepe blockchain is tracked by the 24-hour Active Addresses statistic, which increased from 3.5K to 12K between May 20 and 22, according to data from Santiment. This large increase indicates that, given Pepe’s present price, investors are actively interacting with the product.

Strong support is located at $0.00001387,  which draws attention from investors looking for possible entry locations following a retracement. Additionally, the price trades above the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which supports the bullish outlook even more. 

PEPE’s “bearish divergence” may indicate a possible price reversal because the upward momentum is weaker than the rising price action suggests. This scenario bears resemblance to the 40% meltdown of meme coins in January, which transpired after a discernible discrepancy between their rising values and descending RSI patterns. 

PEPE’s price might correct by 40% from the current levels and reach its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) at roughly $0.00000965 by June. That is similar to the price correction in January before its bearish divergence warning. 

On the other hand, if the current trend continues, PEPE might reach its 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $0.00002203 in the upcoming weeks, up almost 32% from where it is now.  

Pepe’s wealthiest investors take profits off the table, which supports the tokens’ gloomy technical picture. BlockBeats data recently reported a trader made a tidy profit of about $2.17 million after selling all their PEPE coins, the trader paid $250,000 for 160.62 billion PEPE coins in December 2023 the coins were sold for 644 ETH yesterday, which is roughly $2.42 million. 

During the recent market upswing, there has been a notable decline in the amount of PEPE held by entities whose balances surpass one billion tokens. This suggests that the prices for these “whales” have been peaking locally. As a result, there is now more PEPE available that smaller investors own. 

XRP Struggles to Break Out from $0.55 And the Ascending Wedge: What’s Going On?

XRP, like Ethereum and Bitcoin, is trending lower, looking at the performance in the daily chart. Price action remains confirmed inside a wedge, and bears remain in control. This outlook is valid as long as prices remain below $0.55. As it is, conservative traders can stay on the sidelines waiting for a clean trend definition. A break below the support trend line and $0.50, reversing May 20 gains, will heap more pressure on the coin.

XRP bulls are optimistic for now, citing fundamental factors, especially around the ongoing Ripple versus the United States SEC case. A positive outcome will drive prices above the local liquidation lines. Before then, XRP is consolidating, moving sideways. The coin is stable in the past 24 hours but down 2% in the last week of trading. At the same time, participation is lower, holding at slightly above $1.1 billion.

XRP Daily Chart for May 28

The following Ripple and XRP news are worth tracking:

  • Through XRP, Ripple allows for instantaneous settlement. This is better than the new standard directed by FINRA. From today, all settlements will be on the next business day after initiating the trade.
  • After over three years, the ongoing Ripple versus the United States SEC is set to conclude in the next coming weeks. Ripple supporters are hopeful a ruling by the court will be favorable for the blockchain company, lifting XRP as a result.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is trending sideways at spot rates.

As prices move inside the wedge, traders are closely monitoring the reactions at $0.55 on the upper end and $0.50 on the lower side.

The support trend line is also important.

Overall, sellers of mid-April continue to define price action. However, this will change if bulls close $0.55, reversing April 13 losses.

Conversely, any dip, at the back of expanding volumes, below $0.50 will likely mark the continuation of the bear breakout formation. In that case, XRP might drop to $0.46 and $0.40.

Ethereum Bulls Losing Momentum, ETH Holding $3,700 Is Crucial

Ethereum is trending higher, but the upside momentum is beginning to fade. Looking at price action, ETH has support at the $3,700 level. On the upper end, resistance lies at $4,100. While bull bars are diverging from the upper BB, every low should technically be an opportunity for optimistic buyers to ramp up, expecting more gains above $4,100. On the flip side, if there is a dip below the recent contraction, sellers might flow back, forcing the coin towards the $3,300 level.

At current price levels, Ethereum is relatively firm and stable on the last day. Though it is down 2%, the coin is up 5% in the previous trading week. Following the slowdown in the leg up, the average trading volume is now at around $18 billion, a slight contraction from yesterday. Nonetheless, as long as there is FOMO, buyers will remain in control, and participation will be above average.

Ethereum daily chart for May 28

The following Ethereum news developments are worth watching:

  • Analysts now assert that Ethereum is in a full-fledged bull market following the United States SEC’s approval of spot ETH ETF listing. Despite the cool-off, bulls are targeting $4,100 or better in the sessions ahead. Amid this, ETH reserves on leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase continue to drop, reaching a six-year low last week.
  • Once spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading in the next few months, Grayscale’s ETHE will likely be selling around $110 million of these shares every day for at least one month. If GBTC liquidation guides, then it is highly likely that ETH prices will dump.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is firmly on an uptrend.

Recently, Ethereum prices broke from a consolidation. While the breakout bars of May 26 were confirmed, the retracement earlier today signals strong resistance to the upside.

Still, aggressive traders can load on dips above $3,700, a critical support level, targeting $4,100. This outlook is in alignment with the bull bar of May 20. 

Any dip below $3,700, reversing recent gains, might trigger a major sell-off, forcing Ethereum to $3,500 and later $3,300.

Bitcoin Flips Red As Bears Reject Higher Prices above $72,000

Bitcoin turned lower today, reversing all gains of May 27. Even though the uptrend remains, the failure of bulls to follow through and break $72,000 is a huge concern. Technically, bulls have the upper hand, but it is imperative that the resistance level be broken for trend continuation. Until that happens, conservative, risk-on traders can wait on the sidelines. If bulls fail to flow back, BTC risks dipping below $66,000.

As things stand, Bitcoin is back in red, stable on the last day but down 5% in the previous week. Even though the path of least resistance remains upward, at least from a top-down preview, the current state of affairs presents headwinds for optimistic bulls. The dip to spot rates now means trading volume is down to $29 billion in the past day, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin Daily Chart for May 28

The following Bitcoin news events are worth watching:

  • Bitcoin prices are trending lower as Mt. Gox wallets, on-chain data shows, move over $7 billion to another unknown wallet. The over 107,000 BTC moved is when the defunct exchange plans to distribute funds to affected victims before October this year.
  • When BTC prices briefly spiked above $70,000 on May 27, Coinglass data showed that over $27 million worth of leveraged short positions were liquidated. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] is trending lower at spot rates, looking at price action in the daily chart.

With prices back to spot rates, Bitcoin remains within a horizontal consolidation.

Unless there is a break below $66,000, buyers are in control.

However, as mentioned earlier, bulls must force the coin above $72,000—an immediate liquidation line.

Ideally, the breach of $72,000 must be with expanding volume. This could set the ball rolling for a retest of $73,800 in a buy-trend continuation.

If today’s bears press on, forcing BTC below $66,000, the next stop would likely be $60,000.

Ethereum Price Within Reach of $4,000, Next Comes $5,000

Ethereum was the laggard among major cryptos, but with the ETH ETF approval, the Ethereum price has been surging this month. The first surge came after the announcement that SEC would approve the ETF, sending ETH/USD above $3,700. Now we’re seeing the second wave of buying which is pushing ETH toward $4,000, and I think that the upside momentum will continue in the months to come, with the US elections coming up.

Ethereum Daily Price Chart

Continue reading “Ethereum Price Within Reach of $4,000, Next Comes $5,000”

Forex Signals Brief May 27: Quiet Day Ahead with UK, US On Bank Holiday

Last week started slow, with most of Europe and Canada on a bank holiday weekend on Monday, however, we had a plethora of FED speakers, most of whom seemed uncertain about the start of the monetary easing process, which is bullish for the USD/ The USD made some gains during the week, however on Friday the buck retreated lower again on lower inflation expectations by the UoM, despite positive economic data, such as stronger durable goods orders, Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI which came out of recession in April.

The volatility is expected to be very low today
The volatility is expected to be very low today

Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief May 27: Quiet Day Ahead with UK, US On Bank Holiday”