Category: Live Market Updates

SEC Crypto Warning: $6bn Custody Market Puts Retail Investors at Risk

Posted on by Arslan Butt

The US Securities and Exchange Commission is changing how it talks to crypto investors. Instead of focusing only on enforcement, the regulator is now putting more weight on education, especially as millions of retail investors hold digital assets outside traditional financial systems.

On December 12, the SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy released a new Investor Bulletin that breaks down how crypto custody works and where the risks often hide.

SEC Highlights Crypto Custody Risks

At the center of the bulletin is a simple message: how crypto is stored matters just as much as what crypto you own. The SEC explains that many retail investors rely on third-party platforms to safeguard their digital assets, often without fully understanding how those platforms operate behind the scenes.

The guidance warns that investors could lose access to their crypto if a custodian is hacked, shuts down operations, or files for bankruptcy.

The SEC also notes that some platforms may lend out customer assets, a practice known as rehypothecation, or pool customer funds rather than keeping them clearly segregated. During past market disruptions, these structures have amplified losses and delayed recoveries.

A $6bn Industry With Growing Stakes

The timing of the bulletin reflects the rapid expansion of the crypto custody business. Industry estimates suggest the sector is growing at roughly 13% per year and could reach $6.03bn by 2030. That growth underscores how much value is now being held outside banks and brokerages, often under very different legal and operational standards.

Against that backdrop, the SEC is urging investors to ask basic but critical questions before trusting a platform:

  • Are customer assets segregated or pooled?
  • Does the custodian lend or rehypothecate holdings?
  • What happens to client assets if the firm fails?

The agency stresses that custody arrangements can shape outcomes during crises, even if crypto prices themselves remain stable.

Self-Custody Brings Control and Risk

The bulletin also addresses self-custody, a popular option among investors who want direct control over their assets. While the SEC acknowledges the appeal of holding crypto in a personal wallet, it warns that this approach transfers all responsibility to the individual.

Losing private keys, the agency notes, usually means permanent loss of funds, with no recovery mechanism. Hacks, damaged devices, or simple mistakes can all result in assets becoming inaccessible.

A Shift Toward Education

Overall, the bulletin reflects a noticeable shift in tone. With retail crypto ownership already widespread, the SEC appears less focused on debating whether digital assets belong in portfolios and more focused on helping investors understand operational risks. The message is clear: informed decisions about custody may matter more than short-term price movements.

XRP Price Outlook: $2.00 Under Pressure as $120bn Token Tests Key Support

Posted on by Maham Arslan

The XRP price today is $2.00, down about 1.5% over the last 24 hours. It’s been held back by selling pressure, keeping the token hovering around a key psychological benchmark.

Despite the slight pullback, XRP is still number 5 by market cap at a whopping $121 billion, with daily trading volume of about $1.24 billion.

All this liquidity is a clear indication that investors are still on board, even as short-term momentum weakens.

XRP Price Action Slows Near $2.00

On the 4-hour chart, XRP is really struggling to get its mojo back after slipping below a trend line that’s been following it for ages. The recent price action just isn’t looking that great – those real bodies on candlesticks are getting much smaller, and the upper wicks are getting much longer, it’s a dead giveaway that buyers are hesitant to buy at higher prices.

Usually, this sort of price action points to a period of consolidation rather than a panic sell-off.

[[XRP/USD-graph]]

Things aren’t looking great for XRP from a technical perspective either – it’s currently trading below the 50-period EMA, which is hovering around $2.05, and the 100-period EMA, which is around $2.16, as long as price remains below these moving averages, any rallies are likely to get sold into by the short-term traders.

XRP/USD Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

The broader picture is that the price action is being driven by a downward-sloping channel that started in early November. Within that channel, there are a few levels that are worth paying attention to:

  • Right now, support is sitting at $1.97 to $1.95.
  • A bit lower and you’ll find $1.88 which is a previous swing low – a strong support level.
  • And then there is the downside risk – if XRP breaks below $1.88 then $1.82 is looking like a real possibility.
XRP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
XRP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

But on the upside, before sentiment can actually start to pick up, XRP needs to clear a lot of resistance first:

  • First of all, it’s got the 50 EMA, which is sitting at $2.05.
  • Then there’s $2.15, where channel resistance and previous support levels all intersect – that’s one high level to clear.

These are the areas that are likely to define short-term trading behaviour.

XRP/USD Momentum Signals Stay Cautious

Momentum indicators are all over the place, but overall, they suggest the market is still in a neutral-to-bearish state. The RSI is at 45, which is weak, but not quite oversold enough to give much room for further downside. But at the same time, it does help explain why selling has been pretty orderly rather than panicked.

Unless XRP can do something to reclaim that descending trendline and actually close above $2.15 with some conviction, any bounces are likely to be just corrections. 

As it stands, the market looks like it’s all about defending $2.00 – this level will be the real battleground in the days ahead.

Gold Week-Ahead Outlook: Fed Cuts, CPI Risk, and Why $4,299 Matters

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Gold closed out Friday at $4,299, finishing the week relatively unchanged in a rising price channel and confirming a positive outlook for gold going forward. It’s a move which seems to be in response to the US growth slowdown , the Federal Reserve dialing back its hawkish stance and ongoing geopolitical worries.

All these factors continue to make gold look pretty attractive as a hedge and a way to even out your portfolio.

Fed Shift Pressures Dollar, Supports Gold

The Federal Reserve is the key driver behind the recent resilience in the gold price. Their decision to cut rates by 0.25 percent and signal only one more cut for 2026 was in line with expectations.

What Jerome Powell did say though, was a bit more nuanced. He mentioned we should be careful about how we approach interest rates and said he’s worried about the state of the job market: he doesn’t want to do anything that might put people out of work.

Investors took that caution as a hint that the Fed might be more willing to cut rates than they initially thought, and that shifted expectation for rates which in turn hit the US dollar , sending it down to a couple of month low and lowering interest rates in real terms – that reduces the cost of holding onto gold which doesn’t pay interest but tends to do well when interest rates are low.

Geopolitics Keep Safe-Haven Demand Intact

On top of monetary policy though, geopolitics are also providing a steady boost to gold. The ongoing talks aimed at ending the Russia Ukraine conflict are going nowhere fast, and we’re just hearing more talk about how not a lot is happening – even as the general mood in markets is leaning towards more risk taking, gold has been able to hold up pretty well and that suggests investors are still worried about the risk of things getting worse globally and that’s a big part of gold’s appeal.

 [[Gold-graph]]

Key US Data: Forecast vs Previous

Now the focus turns to some key US data releases which could shape the direction of gold over the coming week:

  • Empire State Manufacturing Index: forecast 9.8 vs prior 18.7
  • Non-Farm Employment Change: forecast 50K vs 119K previously
  • Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.5% vs 4.4%
  • CPI y/y: forecast 3.0%
  • Core CPI m/m: forecast 0.2% vs 0.3%

If we get weaker readings on jobs and manufacturing that could reinforce the idea that the economy is slowing and that will probably help out gold. But the real test will be the inflation numbers, especially if they come in softer than expected.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Structure Favors the Upside

Looking at gold’s price action, we are still seeing support at the 50 day EMA at $4,227 and the 100 day EMA just shy of $4,190 . The buyers have been holding up pretty well at $4,270 to $4,280 and there is still a bit of resistance up at $4,340 and $4,385.

Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Gold Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The momentum indicators are still generally on the side of the bulls, which suggests that any setbacks gold takes are likely to be short-lived.

For now, the outlook for gold heading into the new week looks pretty positive: the macro backdrop is still a bit uncertain and the technical picture is still supportive.

Tilray (TLRY) Stages a Comeback — Key Levels and Outlook

Posted on by Konstantin Kaiser

Tilray (TLRY) has endured one of the most dramatic collapses in modern market history, plunging from nearly $3,000 to just $3.51 over the past seven years. Now trading around $12.15, the stock has staged an impressive ~400% rebound from its lows, reigniting debate over whether this move marks the beginning of a sustainable trend reversal—or merely a powerful counter-trend rally.

Tilray Stock Surged From $3.51 to $23.10, Then Retraced to $6.90

Tilray delivered an explosive rally from $3.51 to $23.10 between June and October, marking a powerful speculative advance. This move was followed by a severe corrective phase, with the stock retracing sharply back to $6.90. Since establishing that low, Tilray has mounted a strong recovery, doubling in price and currently trading around $12.15.

On the monthly chart, momentum indicators present a mixed technical picture. The MACD lines remain bullishly crossed, supporting a constructive longer-term momentum structure. However, the MACD histogram has been ticking bearishly lower since last month, signaling a loss of upside momentum following the rebound. Meanwhile, the RSI remains in neutral territory, offering no definitive bullish or bearish confirmation at this stage.

Overall, Tilray is transitioning from a high-volatility recovery phase into a consolidation zone, with momentum indicators suggesting caution despite the strong rebound from the lows.

Tilray
Tilray

Tilray Stock Faces Major Resistance at $13.13 and $17.50

Tilray is currently navigating a critical technical zone. On the indicator side, the MACD lines remain bearishly crossed, reflecting lingering downside pressure. However, the MACD histogram has begun ticking bullishly higher this week, signaling a potential early momentum shift. Meanwhile, the RSI remains in neutral territory, offering no decisive directional bias at this stage.

From a price-structure perspective, Tilray previously broke below the golden ratio support at $10.40, a technically significant event. Despite this breakdown, the stock has staged an impressive rebound over the past week, regaining momentum and reclaiming higher levels. As a result, Tilray now faces key Fibonacci resistance levels at $13.13 and $17.50, which will act as major hurdles for further upside continuation.

A decisive break above these resistance zones would significantly improve the bullish outlook, while rejection could signal renewed consolidation or corrective pressure.

Tilray
Tilray

Golden Crossover Remains Bullishly Intact on the Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Tilray briefly threatened to form a death cross, but the recent upside acceleration has preserved the golden crossover, keeping the short- to medium-term trend bullishly confirmed. Momentum indicators support this view: the MACD lines remain bullishly crossed, and the MACD histogram is trending strongly higher, signaling accelerating bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, though it has not yet produced any bearish signals.

Should Tilray sustain its upward trajectory and continue advancing toward the next Fibonacci resistance levels, this setup implies upside potential ranging from approximately 7.5% up to 44.5%, depending on the extent of the move.

Tilray
Tilray

Death Cross Ermerges on the 4H Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Tilray’s EMAs have already formed a death cross, confirming a bearish short-term trend from a moving-average perspective. However, this is contradicted by momentum indicators. The MACD lines remain bullishly crossed, while the MACD histogram is trending strongly higher, signaling accelerating bullish momentum beneath the surface. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving in overbought territory, yet it does not display any bearish divergence, suggesting that upside momentum has not yet meaningfully deteriorated.

Overall, despite the bearish EMA structure on the 4H timeframe, the strength in momentum indicators implies that further short-term upside remains possible before any broader consolidation or pullback materializes.

Tilray
Tilray

Tilray (TLRY) – Technical Summary & Key Levels

Tilray has undergone extreme volatility, surging from $3.51 to $23.10, followed by a deep correction to $6.90, and has since staged a strong rebound to $12.15, effectively doubling from its recent lows.

Higher Timeframes (Monthly / Weekly):

  • Long-term structure remains constructive but fragile.
  • MACD lines are bullishly crossed, supporting a broader recovery narrative, though the MACD histogram has recently turned bearish, signaling waning momentum.
  • RSI remains neutral, offering no directional confirmation.
  • Key resistance levels are located at $13.13 and $17.50, both significant Fibonacci retracement levels.

Daily Chart:

  • The EMA golden crossover remains intact, narrowly avoiding a death cross, confirming a bullish short- to medium-term trend.
  • MACD is bullish, with a rising histogram, while RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting strong momentum but increasing short-term risk.
  • Upside potential toward resistance implies a ~7.5% to ~44.5% move, depending on breakout strength.

4H Chart:

  • Short-term trend is technically bearish, with EMAs forming a death cross.
  • Momentum contradicts the EMA structure: MACD remains bullish with a strongly rising histogram, and RSI is overbought but without bearish divergence, leaving room for further upside before exhaustion.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Support: $6.90 and $3.51
  • Resistance: $13.13 → $17.50
  • Trend Invalidation (Bullish): Sustained break above $17.50
  • Risk Zone: Loss of $10.40 would weaken the recovery structure

Overall Outlook:
Tilray remains in a high-volatility recovery phase. While momentum favors continued upside in the near term, major Fibonacci resistances overhead and mixed higher-timeframe signals suggest that breakouts must be confirmed decisively to avoid another sharp retracement.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Pension Reform, Fed Cuts and Nasdaq Risk Fuel a Breakout?

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Bitcoin enters the week at a critical moment as U.S. pension-fund debates, fresh Federal Reserve rate cuts and mounting speculation over Strategy’s potential removal from the Nasdaq 100 all shape market sentiment. Washington’s clash over allowing crypto in retirement accounts highlights Bitcoin’s growing influence, while the Fed’s easing cycle lifts risk appetite. At the same time, index-inclusion risks add volatility but keep Bitcoin firmly in the spotlight.

Crypto Industry and Trade Unions Clash over Retirement Funds

The question of whether U.S. retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s should be permitted to invest in cryptocurrencies is becoming a major topic of discussion in Washington D.C., between labor unions and cryptocurrency startups. Trillions of dollars could be added to the cryptocurrency market by new legislation that loosens existing regulations. But labor unions are strongly against the change.

The Senate was informed by the 1.8 million-member American Federation of Teachers (AFT) that cryptocurrency is too hazardous and unstable for workers’ retirement savings. Pension holders could see major losses, they said.

Investors in cryptocurrency swiftly retaliated, labeling the union’s worries as “uninformed” and claiming that the plan would actually strengthen oversight.

Proponents contend that incorporating cryptocurrency gives employees access to high-performing assets and more options. However the AFL-CIO and other significant unions cautioned that cryptocurrency might pose systemic dangers to pension funds.

The conversation emphasizes how important cryptocurrency is becoming. Large retirement funds may enter the market if regulations are later loosened which would be positive for Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin Rises After Fed Rate Cut, Bigger Rally May Be Coming

After the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third interest rate drop in three months, bitcoin surged on Wednesday. From September to December the Fed lowered rates by a total of 0.75%. Although analysts claim that these cutbacks are bullish for cryptocurrency each one has resulted in short-term selling as traders adopt the traditional “buy the rumor sell the news” strategy.

A larger recovery typically occurs after the market settles according to onchain firm Santiment and this decline resembles previous post-cut actions. They expect anxiety or modest retail sales showing that the decline is coming to an end.

Reduced interest rates stimulate demand for risky assets like Bitcoin and make borrowing more affordable. The Fed’s measures were anticipated, according to analysts, but better market mood aided in the recovery of cryptocurrencies.

Long-term bullish momentum is supported by the rate cut. Bitcoin may see further robust upward movement in the coming days as liquidity improves.

Strategy Faces Risk of Removal from Nasdaq 100 Index

Analysts predict that Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) a bitcoin-focused startup may be taken out of the Nasdaq 100 on Friday as part of the yearly shuffle. The company’s market capitalization originally reached $128 billion however it has subsequently drastically decreased after switching from software to large Bitcoin investments in 2020. Some commentators have questioned its business strategy stating that it now resembles a cryptocurrency holding corporation rather than a tech company.

Due mostly to accounting adjustments that made it possible to recognize earnings from Bitcoin Strategy posted a significant $2.78 billion profit last quarter.

However, only $128.7 million was made from its core software sector. Compared to Bitcoin’s slight decline this year, Strategy’s share price has dropped 65% from its high.

Strategy may lose roughly $1.6 billion in passive funds if it is eliminated. However due of its large market value, several analysts believe it will remain

Such news increases market instability but it also emphasizes the growing impact of Bitcoin. Short-term support for Bitcoin prices may come from increased attention.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is trading near $90,460, sitting right on top of a rising trendline that has supported price action since the December lows. Candlesticks along this trendline show narrow bodies and small wicks, signalling reduced volatility as the market compresses into a triangle structure. The 50-EMA near $91,600 is acting as short-term resistance, while the 200-EMA around $94,600 remains the key ceiling that capped every upside attempt this month.

Horizontal resistance at $91,599 continues to reject intraday rallies, with repeated upper wicks confirming seller interest at that level. If buyers break above this zone, the next targets sit at $94,612, followed by $96,788, where previous breakdown levels align with the longer-term moving average.

On the downside, a clean break below the rising trendline exposes $88,628, and then $86,217, both major support levels from earlier consolidation phases. Meanwhile, RSI hovers near 44, showing weak momentum and hinting that BTC may drift sideways until a decisive breakout occurs.

Ripple Gains OCC Approval: $500M Trust Bank Boosts XRP Adoption Potential

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Ripple has just achieved a major milestone in its transformation from a digital currency outfit to a fully-fledged financial institution. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has given Ripple the green light to establish Ripple National Trust Bank, a huge step forward for stablecoin compliance and, more generally, for blockchain-based financial solutions. This move comes as regulators around the world are tightening oversight, which is great news for XRP-USD holders, who see Ripple’s growing legitimacy as a chance to cash in.

Ripple’s Strategic Expansion in Finance

The OCC’s approval marks a real turning point for Ripple, allowing it to operate as a full-fledged bank with all the credibility that entails. This move reflects Ripple’s growing influence as a bridge between the old-school financial world and the digital asset space.

  • With Ripple National Trust Bank, Ripple will offer regulated financial services to help build trust with users and regulators alike.
  • This approval is a clear sign that Ripple is serious about plugging its blockchain tech into the mainstream financial system.
  • It’s a real vote of confidence for Ripple’s market credibility, and could even lead to more institutions investing in XRP-USD.

Chief executive Brad Garlinghouse has been saying that this move will put Ripple right at the forefront of regulated digital finance, with a safe and compliant infrastructure for its stablecoin operations.

Impact on Stablecoin Compliance

Stablecoins have been under intense scrutiny from regulators worldwide, and Ripple’s trust bank is a direct response to those concerns. By aligning its operations with federal banking standards, Ripple is ensuring its stablecoin ecosystem plays by the rules.

This development is great news for investors, because it offers them:

  • A whole lot more confidence that Ripple is playing by the rules
  • A chance for Ripple to work with authorities to develop digital currency standards
  • A big boost to the credibility of Ripple’s stablecoins, which could really speed up the adoption of XRP-USD

By positioning itself as a regulatory leader, Ripple can leverage its blockchain expertise to more smoothly integrate digital assets into existing financial networks.

Blockchain Innovation and Market Confidence

The Ripple National Trust Bank also helps take Ripple’s tech to the next level. Its blockchain infrastructure provides fast, secure, and cost-effective transaction solutions, and even lets users store their digital assets securely.

The key benefits are:

  • Institutional investors will be much more likely to invest in Ripple’s financial solutions because it has a solid track record of operating within the rules.
  • Ripple can leverage its blockchain technology to deliver scalable payment solutions that really work.
  • Ripple is well on its way to becoming the go-to provider of compliant financial tech, which is a pretty big deal.

The conditional approval marks a new era for Ripple and underscores the company’s commitment to bringing digital finance into the regulated world. As XRP-USD starts to gain some traction, the trust bank is putting Ripple in pole position to lead the way in blockchain innovation while building trust with investors – and setting a precedent for the future of digital currency integration.

Tether’s $1 Billion Juventus Bid Signals Crypto’s Push Into Global Sports EU

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has made a formal $1bn offer to acquire Juventus Football Club, a move that signals how major crypto firms are widening their ambitions beyond digital finance.

A Bid That Recasts Tether’s Strategy

The company confirmed that it has submitted a binding proposal to Exor, the Agnelli family holding group that controls 65.4% of Juventus. The offer also includes a public tender for the remaining shares, pending regulatory clearance.

The announcement sent Juventus shares sharply higher, lifting the club’s market value to nearly €1bn. Exor’s majority stake is now worth roughly €540mn, underscoring the scale of Tether’s push into a legacy European sports brand.

Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s chief executive, described Juventus as a global institution with commercial potential that “far exceeds its recent performance,” framing the bid as part of a long-term expansion plan rather than a short-term financial play.

Investors Reassess the Club’s Prospects

The offer has revived investor interest in a team that has spent the past several years balancing financial strain with uneven competitive results. Tether has indicated that it’s prepared to inject up to €1bn more into the club if the acquisition goes ahead — capital that could strengthen operations and stabilize the balance sheet.

Key market reactions:

  • Juventus shares rallied immediately after the announcement
  • Analysts reassessed valuation scenarios for Exor’s stake
  • The bid drew global attention due to the involvement of a crypto firm

The move fits a broader pattern of digital-asset companies buying into established brands to accelerate mainstream recognition.

Scrutiny Remains as Tether Steps Into a Regulated Arena

The offer arrives as questions continue around Tether’s reserves and disclosure practices. While critics have long pressed the company for more transparency, recent commentary from CoinShares suggested Tether does not appear financially distressed — a point that may help soften regulatory concerns as the proposal advances.

If approved, the deal would mark one of the largest intersections between crypto capital and elite European sport. More importantly, it tracks a shift in how digital-asset companies are deploying their balance sheets: toward real-economy assets that offer global reach, built-in fan bases, and reputational weight that crypto alone cannot provide.

Strategy Keeps Nasdaq 100 Spot Amid 65% Stock Drop and MSCI Scrutiny

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has somehow managed to keep its place within the Nasdaq 100 despite all the fuss over its Bitcoin-obsessed business strategy. And this has come at a time when MSCI is preparing to rule on whether companies that hold large amounts of digital assets in their treasuries should still qualify for its global indexes.

Nasdaq 100 Retention Despite Business Model Shift

According to Reuters, MicroStrategy will remain in the Nasdaq 100 for now, retaining its spot after the index was revamped. This means the company will still be included for another year. It’s worth noting that just a short while ago, MicroStrategy was seen as a perfectly normal enterprise software company, but it all changed in 2020 when it decided to get really heavy on Bitcoin.

This change in fortunes has made the company’s stock move in lockstep with the price of Bitcoin – a rather unusual situation for a tech stock. Some people have started to wonder whether it actually belongs in the same tech-sector bucket as all the other Nasdaq 100 companies – a move that would have seen it get the boot. But that didn’t happen yet. Several other old familiar names did get the chop, but MicroStrategy somehow managed to hang on ahead of the December 22 cut-over date.

MSCI Review Could Leave A Big Hole

Now, though, the real test is coming from MSCI, which is deciding whether or not companies that hold onto a lot of digital assets should still qualify for its global indexes.

Key points that are up for debate include:

  • If MicroStrategy gets kicked out, we’re talking about around $1.5 billion in cash flying out of passive investment funds in a pinch; that’s just a rough estimate.
  • Companies with a connection to the price of Bitcoin could be in for a wild ride.
  • This could also be the start of a bigger debate about how we classify companies in investment indexes when it comes to digital assets.

MicroStrategy is pushing back on the whole idea, saying that being excluded from the index would be a bad deal for its shareholders and would distort the rules governing index creation. The company’s stock has taken a battering – it’s down around 65% from its peak last year, and 36% so far this year – a sure sign that it’s super sensitive to all the ups and downs of the Bitcoin price.

Benchmark Decisions Will Set A Precedent

Industry players, like Bitwise, are saying that MSCI’s approach is a bit dodgy – that it runs the risk of making its perfectly good rules-based system a bit too subjective. They’re warning that the outcome could influence how all the other index-makers classify companies that use Bitcoin as a source of cash for their operations.

For now, at least, MicroStrategy gets to stay in the Nasdaq 100 and carry on as usual, but come January, we’ll be getting a much bigger say in how things go from here. The MSCI decision will have a big part to play in deciding whether or not other companies will be allowed to get involved with digital assets in the same way as MicroStrategy – and the outcome could well shape the way that traditional investors think about companies that are getting into the world of cryptocurrency.

Fed Sees Growth in 2026, Trump Unimpressed

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The Federal Reserve (Fed) aims to hand over a solid economy to whoever succeeds Jerome Powell as chair.

After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve projected faster growth, lower inflation, and stable unemployment heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Policymakers also anticipate the economy will move past a period of volatility and disruption driven by tariffs and immigration, transitioning into a year of solid productivity and resilient consumer spending.

“I really want to hand this job to my successor with the economy in great shape—that’s what I want to do,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting press conference, following the central bank’s third consecutive rate cut. “I want inflation to be under control, back down to 2%, and I want the labor market to be strong.”

These projections, however, have failed to satisfy U.S. President Donald Trump. Far from endorsing Powell’s cautious approach, Trump believes rate cuts should be carried out far more aggressively. As a result, he has already drawn up a shortlist of potential candidates to lead the Fed, including Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser, who would be more aligned with his demands.

Still, even if the next chair inherits a solid economy, they will take charge of a policymaking committee that remains unconvinced of the need for substantially looser monetary policy.

Quarterly projections show that inflation is rising faster, interest rates are higher, and economic growth is slower than central bankers had anticipated last September—just before Trump’s election victory in November. Even so, officials expect fears of what some analysts dubbed “light stagflation”—high unemployment alongside high inflation—to gradually fade.

2026 Outlook and Midterm Elections

According to the Fed’s latest projections, inflation is expected to end 2026 at 2.4%, down from 2.9% projected for the end of this year. Economic growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.3%, compared with 1.7% this year—a positive outcome despite the government shutdown that affected the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, reported at 4.4% in September, is expected to edge slightly higher before ending 2026 once again at 4.4%.

EU Targets Chinese Imports With €3 Fee on Small Parcels

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The measure will take effect on July 1 and marks the first of several steps the bloc plans to take to curb the surge in such orders.

European Union finance ministers agreed on Friday to impose a €3 ($3.50) levy on all small parcels entering the bloc starting July 1. The measure will apply to shipments valued below €150 ($174).

The decision aims to rein in the flood of low-cost packages sent by Asian e-commerce platforms such as Shein, Temu, and AliExpress. About a month ago, finance officials from the EU’s 27 member states approved the removal of the long-standing tariff exemption for these shipments.

European producers and retailers have increasingly complained about the massive inflow of duty-free imports, which they view as unfair competition. In many cases, they also argue that these products fail to meet EU regulatory standards.

In 2024 alone, roughly 4.6 billion parcels worth less than €150 entered the European market—equivalent to more than 145 packages per second. Of that total, 91% originated in China.

Seeking a permanent solution

According to an EU spokesperson, the €3 levy is a temporary measure and only the first step, to remain in place until the bloc develops a permanent solution to address the issue.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure welcomed the new tax, calling it a “major victory for the European Union.”

Starting in November 2026, the measure is expected to be complemented by handling fees on the same low-value shipments. In May, Brussels proposed setting those fees at €2 per parcel.