Year: 2025

CME Raises Margins Again as Silver Prices Digest 2025 Gains, Long-Term Bullish Forces Persist

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Following an exceptional rally that rattled global markets, silver has entered a turbulent consolidation phase; however, the underlying fundamentals suggest strength beyond the immediate future.
Continue reading “CME Raises Margins Again as Silver Prices Digest 2025 Gains, Long-Term Bullish Forces Persist” →

Despite Milei, Argentine Assets End 2025 in Negative Territory

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street traded broadly lower, with no clear local catalysts to guide price action.

Argentina’s president Javier Milei gestures as he delivers his inaugural speech.

Despite the ruling party’s victory in the midterm elections under President Javier Milei, Argentine assets signaled that expectations had been set extremely high. Markets appear to be reassessing the pace and depth of the reform agenda, while acknowledging that significant political risks remain.

In addition, structural constraints continue to weigh on the outlook, particularly the limited inflow of foreign capital, which has so far failed to materialize at scale and remains a key obstacle to sustaining long-term growth and asset revaluation.

Argentine Asset Performance

With domestic markets closed due to a banking holiday, Argentine equities trading in the U.S. via ADRs posted widespread losses, with only a handful of exceptions. The weakest performers included IRSA (-1.62%), followed by Cresud (-1.62%), Grupo Supervielle (-1.34%), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-0.93%).

Argentine companies that trade directly on Wall Street also moved lower. MercadoLibre slipped 0.30%, while Bioceres fell 1.15%.

On the upside, only a few ADRs managed to post gains in the final sessions of the year. YPF rose 0.17%, Transportadora de Gas del Sur added 0.16%, Central Puerto climbed 0.63%, and Telecom Argentina advanced 1.26%.

Merval, Bonds, and Country Risk

On Tuesday, Argentina’s benchmark S&P Merval fell 1.6% in pesos to 3,051,616.77 points, while its dollar-denominated version declined 1% to 2,007.60 points. Over the full year, the index gained 20.4% in local currency, but fell 6% in dollar terms, as the CCL exchange rate rose more sharply.

In fixed income, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds closed mixed. Losses were led by Bonar AL29 (-0.9%) and Global GD29 (-0.6%), while gains were posted by Global GD38 (+0.9%) and Bonar AL30 (+0.6%).

The latest available reading for Argentina’s country-risk premium stood at around 571 basis points, unchanged from Monday. Compared with the end of 2024, the indicator has fallen by 64 points, although it is worth noting that it peaked at 1,456 points in September, amid concerns over exchange-rate sustainability and the ruling coalition’s electoral prospects.

Overall, Argentine assets are set to close 2025 in negative territory, reflecting a year marked by volatility, currency pressures, and shifting investor sentiment.

Wall Street Extends Losses in the Final Session of a Record Year

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

U.S. equities are among the few major markets trading normally on Wednesday, December 31, as Wall Street closes out a record-setting year dominated by technology stocks.

Broad Market Strength Signals Renewed Risk Appetite Across Wall Street
Broad Market Strength Signals Renewed Risk Appetite Across Wall Street

Major indexes are edging lower in the final trading session of 2025. Despite recent declines, markets are on track to end the year on a solid footing after months of volatility driven by tariff uncertainty under U.S. President Donald Trump and an unprecedented surge of enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.

By mid-session, the S&P 500 was down 0.18%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also lower, falling 0.20%.

[[SPX-graph]]

A Volatile but Profitable Year

Wall Street’s annual performance was initially expected to lag the strong gains of the previous two years. In April, Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a sharp sell-off in global markets, clouding the outlook for monetary policy in the world’s largest economy and pushing investors away from U.S. equities early in the year.

However, easing trade tensions—combined with strong gains in AI-related technology stocks and interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—helped markets recover. U.S. equities have since returned to record highs, with technology stocks leading the advance.

Among the standout performers was NVIDIA, which gained 13.6% this year and became the first publicly traded company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. The rally was fueled by continued demand for AI chips and data-center infrastructure.

Another major winner was Alphabet, which surged more than 65%, putting it on track for its best annual performance since 2009. The stock benefited from multiple catalysts, including major AI partnerships, a $4.9 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway, and a favorable ruling in a high-profile antitrust case.

As the year draws to a close, Wall Street appears poised to finish 2025 with record gains—despite ending it with a modest pullback—underscoring the dominant role of technology and artificial intelligence in shaping market leadership.

Mexican Peso Heads for a Historic Year, Up More Than 13%

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The strong performance has been driven mainly by dollar weakness and effective management of Mexico’s relationship with the United States, which has helped limit pressure from President Donald Trump.

The Mexican peso edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday morning, the final trading day of the year. The currency is on track to close its strongest year on record, posting gains of more than 13%, amid thin trading and limited data releases.

The spot exchange rate stood at 17.9781 pesos per dollar. Compared with Tuesday’s close of 17.9959, according to official data from the Banco de México (Banxico), the peso strengthened by 1.78 centavos, or 0.10%.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

During the session, the dollar traded within a range, reaching a high of 18.0131 pesos and a low of 17.9543. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), published by the Intercontinental Exchange, was up 0.13% at 98.36 points, reflecting modest dollar strength globally.

A Standout Year for the Peso

So far this year, the peso has gained more than 13%, supported by a weaker dollar, interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a pragmatic handling of trade and diplomatic relations with the United States. These factors have helped shield the currency from renewed political pressure linked to the Trump administration.

Final Key Data of 2025

The last major U.S. data release of the year showed that initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 in the week ended December 27, well below market expectations of 220,000.

The data were released a day earlier than usual due to reduced government and market activity ahead of the New Year holiday. With liquidity thinning sharply, trading conditions remain subdued and significant market moves appear unlikely.

In this low-volume environment, the peso has found modest support, while markets digest the U.S. labor data as the final reference point of 2025.

Country Risk in Latin America in 2025: Where It Fell the Most

Posted on by Ignacio Teson

The country-risk indicator compiled by JPMorgan Chase was heavily influenced by political developments across the region in 2025.

Throughout the year, bonds issued by higher-risk Latin American countries saw a meaningful compression in yields, reflecting improved investor sentiment and shifting political expectations.

Ecuador recorded the sharpest decline in country risk in the region. The indicator fell to levels not seen since mid-2019, breaking below 500 basis points for the first time in six years. The move followed the re-election of President Daniel Noboa, who defeated left-wing candidate Luisa González. The improvement came after significant volatility: on April 10, Ecuador’s country risk had spiked to 1,908 points.

In Bolivia, the presidential election that brought Rodrigo Paz to power—ending two decades of socialist rule—triggered a more favorable financial backdrop. On November 7, Bolivia’s country risk fell to 955 points, its first close below 1,000 since August 2023. It currently trades near 700 points.

In Argentina, the JPMorgan-compiled indicator stands at 574 points. After rising in late October, country risk declined following the legislative election victory of the libertarian coalition, allowing spreads to compress. Argentina reached a peak of 1,456 points in September after a key electoral setback, though its most significant risk compression occurred in 2024.

A special case is Venezuela, which will end the year above 12,000 points, the highest country-risk level in the world. Even so, its risk premium declined steadily throughout 2025, a move analysts attribute to investor speculation about a potential political regime change.

At the lower-risk end of the spectrum, Uruguay, Chile, Peru, and Paraguay remain the safest sovereign credits in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico occupy a middle tier, above 200 basis points, but both saw their bond spreads tighten during 2025.

Country Risk Levels in Latin America (End-2025, basis points)

  • Venezuela: 12,645
  • Bolivia: 709
  • Argentina: 574
  • Ecuador: 502
  • El Salvador: 328
  • Colombia: 266
  • Honduras: 237
  • Mexico: 224
  • Brazil: 198
  • Dominican Republic: 171
  • Panama: 156
  • Costa Rica: 143
  • Guatemala: 142
  • Peru: 132
  • Paraguay: 103
  • Chile: 91
  • Uruguay: 70

What Is Country Risk?

Country risk is measured using the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), produced by JPMorgan Chase. It reflects market perceptions of a country’s ability to meet its sovereign debt obligations by measuring the additional yield investors demand over U.S. Treasury bonds.

Stock Market Prepares for 4th Consecutive Day of Losses

Posted on by Timothy St. John

All three of the leading U.S. stock indices fell on Wednesday morning as trading began with the Dow and S&P 500 down 0.1% and the  Nasdaq dropping 0.2%.

The market got its Santa Clause rally and recovered from April's bearish trend.
The market got its Santa Clause rally and recovered from April’s bearish trend.

Stocks have had a sensational year in 2025, but the market is looking at the fourth day in a row of losses on Wednesday. The losses have not been significant, however, and stock indices remain close to record highs still.

All three indices are set to gain double digits for the year with the Dow gaining the least at 13% in 2025. That would be due to the lack of technology stocks that outperformed estimates this year despite some pullback in November as fears surfaced over the future of the AI market.

Stocks Recovered Impressively from April Decline

Back in April, the stock market plummeted when President Donald Trump announced the first of a large number of wide-ranging tariffs. This set off reciprocal tariffs from trade partners and caused the stock market to dip extremely low in a short period of time.

In early April, the Nasdaq Composite lost 200 points in just a few days. However, just over a month later, the Nasdaq was above its 2025 high and started climbing rapidly to record levels. The tariffs that were plaguing the economy created less and less impact as the year wore on, since investors began to see that many of the announced tariffs would be decreased or repealed quickly.

The Nasdaq repeatedly high record highs through October, November, and December while still falling sharply from time to time in that period. AI market fears persisted and dragged the technology stocks down again and again, but those stocks have surged since then, with Nvidia (NVDA) up 34% for the year. That is impressive after the tech stock suffered severe losses in April and then again throughout November.

The stock market overall has made an amazing recovery from the April slump. Stock indices enjoyed a small Santa Clause rally, but now the market is slipping slightly. For the past three trading sessions, the stock market has declined overall, and it appears that Wednesday will continue that streak into the New Year.

The Dow Jones has lost about 300 points over the last few days but is still well above its December low. The S&P 500 is down slightly as well over the last few days but is still elevated compared to the mid-December low. It appears that the stock market will end the year with impressive gains overall and excellent increases for the month but a declining final week.

 

Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: $71 Holds as Bulls Eye $76 After Sharp Pullback

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Silver prices (XAG/USD) opened up in the European session trading around the $71.86 level, holding steady after a pretty sharp pullback from that recent high of $82.00. Despite the correction, silver is still one of the top performers among the precious metals this year & is benefiting from a combination of the US monetary policy easing up and the ongoing global uncertainty.

Like gold, silver is also getting a boost from the expectations that the Federal Reserve might keep cutting interest rates right on into 2026. When the yields are low, the non-yielding assets generally do better, and silver has been following that script pretty closely – even if you do see some short-term ups and downs.

The geopolitical risks are still very much part of the background, with the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the strained relationship between the US and Venezuela keeping that safe-haven demand in place – even though silver’s industrial exposure adds a bit of a layer on top of global growth expectations.

Fed Outlook and Macro Risks Shape Demand

The Federal Reserve’s 25-point rate cut, bringing the rates down to 3.50%-3.75%, just reinforced the view that policymakers are much more comfortable with inflationary trends than they were. However, there’s still division within the FOMC, suggesting the path ahead won’t be smooth.

According to CME FedWatch, the chances of a rate cut in January have now slipped to around 15%, trimming near-term optimism. Even so, the overall easing trend remains very supportive of metals.

At the same time, the CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which can prompt traders to take profits in the short term. In that sense, that’s actually what helped explain the recent pullback from the $82 level, rather than signaling a reversal of the trend.

Silver Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, silver is still in good shape. On the 4-hour chart, the price is actually holding up within a rising channel with the lower trend line providing a bit of a buffer around the $71.00 – $71.50 level. The recent candles do show long lower wicks, which is a sign that buyers are stepping in when the price dips.

Silver Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Silver Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Fibonacci retracement levels do highlight this current balance:

  • 50% retracement: $72.36 is still acting a bit like a near-term pivot point
  • 61.8% retracement: $69.62 is a bit of a downside safety net
  • 200-day EMA: around $67.72, which just reinforces the fact that the bigger trend is still quite bullish

The momentum has cooled off but hasn’t broken yet, and the RSI has stabilized in the low 50s, a sign of consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. The price structure looks a bit like a short-term triangle is forming within the bigger bullish move.

Short Term Levels and Trade Setup

If silver can stay above $71.00, we could see momentum pick up again and reach the $75.00-$76.00 level. If we see a sustained break below $69.60, it would weaken the bullish case and push us to deeper support.

Trade idea: Buy near $71.00, target $75.00-$76.00, stop below $69.60.

Forex Signals Dec 31: Stocks to Watch – JBS, CODI, ALPS Earnings Preview

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

As the year closes, attention turns to a compact but telling earnings slate featuring JBS, Compass Diversified, and ALPS Group, offering insight into trends across protein, diversified holdings, and asset management.

Continue reading “Forex Signals Dec 31: Stocks to Watch – JBS, CODI, ALPS Earnings Preview” →

Gold Surges 65% in 2025, But $4,256 Support Now Defines the Next Move

Posted on by Arslan Butt

Gold prices went into reverse gear after an absolutely astonishing rally that catapulted XAU/USD to $4350 earlier this week. The metal is still up a whopping 65% in 2025, which has got to be the strongest annual performance since 1979. But the momentum has slowed down significantly.

The earlier surge was largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve would follow up with even more interest rate cuts in 2026, which would continue to put real yields under pressure and keep gold as a safe-haven investment very much in the picture. On top of that, geopolitical risk also loomed large, with tensions between Israel and Iran and renewed strain between the US and Venezuela spooking investors into seeking safer assets.

Fed Policy Keeps Gold in Focus

The Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut, which lowered rates to 3.50% to 3.75%, only reinforced gold’s long-term appeal, even though Fed officials remain divided about what to do next. The December meeting minutes made it clear that most are open to more easing if inflation really starts to slow.

But, it looks like the market is now downplaying the chances of an immediate rate cut in January – the CME FedWatch now says there’s only about a 15% chance of it happening, which has definitely cooled some of the near-term enthusiasm and contributed to gold’s recent price pullback.

[[XAU/USD-graph]]

Geopolitics Support, Margins Cap Upside

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is still providing a solid floor under prices, but the upside is getting more balanced.

Some of the key headwinds are:

  • Higher CME margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which are making it more expensive to hold positions
  • Profit-taking after those record highs
  • Reports that we might actually be seeing some progress towards a peace deal in Ukraine, which could reduce the demand for safe-haven assets

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Levels Now Matter More

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On the 4-hour chart, gold is currently trading at about $4317, down from the $4550 peak. Price has dropped below the rising channel midline and also below the 50-period EMA, while the 200-period EMA at $4256 is acting as a critical support level at the moment.

The pullback is lining up with the 38.2% / 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, and the RSI is at 38, which is still pretty bearish without being oversold. If we stay above $4256, then the bigger trend remains intact. A break below would open up $4180.