Forex Signals Brief April 18: US Unemployment Claims to Remain Steady

Posted on April 18, 2024April 17, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday started with New Zealand releasing its inflation data for the January-March quarter of 2024. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for this period rose by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), meeting expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter’s CPI of 0.5%. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, inflation was recorded at 4.0%, representing the lowest level since 2021 but still significantly above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target. This y/y figure was in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading of 4.7%, indicating a continued downward trend in inflation.

Unemployment claims expected to come at 215K

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Barclays, Citi, Mastercard Test Tokenized Deposits in UK

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

UK Finance is extending its testing of an experimental shared ledger to track banking payments, to make some connections in the rapidly developing world of digital assets.

This trial phase involves participating banks, such as Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, and Citigroup, together with card networks, Mastercard, and Visa, according to a report released by UK Finance on Monday, April 15.

The trial is the most recent phase in developing a workable commercial tokenized deposit and securities system that all banks may use. The objective is to decrease the possibility of error and fraud and to facilitate faster and easier cross-border transactions by recording more assets as tokens on a single, unified blockchain.

Gilbert Verdian, the chief executive officer of Quant, a company that builds interoperable blockchain networks and supplies the technology for the pilot, said that the most recent pilot began in February.

Before the technology is used commercially, companies are expected to use the trial platform for two to three years, according to Verdian. August will see the publication of the pilot’s findings. According to him, fintech startups and IT firms will have the opportunity to enroll in the program in July, enabling them to begin developing new products using tokenized commercial bank funds.

Businesses were eager to test this technology, according to Verdian, before central banks could produce their virtual currency. “Banks now see the necessity of programmable payments. For them, it’s a huge game shift since business models can now function more effectively because the limitations of the current payment system don’t constrain them.

The pilot is one of several initiatives aiming for the same objective. To better understand how tokenized forms of money, such as digital currencies issued by central banks, might function in real-world situations, the Bank of International Settlements has initiated several experiments in recent years. The most recent of these studies was an international payments pilot involving seven central banks.

Forex Signals Brief April 17: Inflation Continues to Fall Globally

Posted on April 17, 2024April 17, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the Q/Y Chinese GDP showed an increase while expectations were for a slowdown, while Industrial Production and Retail Sales did slow down more than expected. That left the risk sentiment mixed for most of the day, with stock markets mixed, as well as commodity currencies.

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XRP Flat-Lines: Will Ripple Find More Adoption With Their Stablecoin?

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is moving sideways within a bearish formation as per the price action in the daily chart. The coin remains under pressure and the failure of bulls to reject attempts lower could be the building blocks for more losses towards $0.40 in the days ahead. Even so, this could rapidly change if there are triggers propelling the coin above the strong resistance zone of between $0.57 and $0.60. If there are conclusive gains in this area, it could be the beginning of a welcomed turnaround.

Looking at coin trackers, XRP is stable on the last trading day but down 19% in the previous week. At the same time, trading volume is low, at around $1.6 billion, down 26% in the past trading day. For XRP to recover strongly, participation must rapidly expand amid rising prices.

Possible catalysts for bulls will be primarily because of the following XRP and Ripple news:

As prices consolidate at around $0.50, analysts are looking at the ongoing case pitting Ripple and the United States SEC. The case, which entered the final pretrial conference on April 16, will mark the beginning of the end of the protracted suit that began in late 2020.
Some analysts now say the decision by Ripple, the blockchain company, to issue a stablecoin could be strategic. One analyst says that issuing stablecoins will make it easier for banks and financial institutions to work with the firm, even adopting some of its solutions, including the On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), which uses XRP.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is technically bearish.

As long as prices consolidate inside the bearish bar of April 13, sellers have the upper hand from an effort-versus-result perspective.

Every low below $0.57 allows sellers to look for entries, targeting $0.40.

However, the tide could change should there be a sharp spike in price and trading volume, pushing the coin above $0.55.

In that case, XRP could easily glide past $0.60, and even $0.66; a relief for optimists.

Ethereum Crashes 25%, Traders Cutting Exposure As Spot ETF Hopes Dim

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum remains under immense selling pressure, looking at the formation in the daily chart. Even though traders are generally upbeat, citing on-chain developments and continuous platform development, price action points to a different story.

Presently, ETH is down 25% from 2024 highs, retesting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October to March trade range. Technically, buyers have a chance, but there must be solid movements above the immediate liquidation zone for the uptrend to be confirmed.

Major Ethereum news in the past 24 hours include:

Perpetual derivatives data shows that traders appear to be decreasing their exposure, chopping down their positions as they de-risk. The more traders exit, the higher the odds of Ethereum prices slipping below the psychological $3,000 level.
Even with Hong Kong’s SFC approving multiple spot Ethereum ETFs for several applicants, there are doubts about whether the United States SEC will green-light this product. Over the past few months, even amid rising ETH prices, Gary Gensler has failed to clarify whether the coin is a commodity like Bitcoin. This doubts whether this complex derivative will get the nod in May.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] is under immense selling pressure per the formation in the daily chart.

The breakout of April 13 is clear, swinging price action in favor of sellers.

Accordingly, Ethereum traders might search for entries, targeting $3,000 and lower as long as the coin is trading below $3,300.

The ideal bear target will be $2,600, or January 2024 highs.

This outlook will, however, change if bulls flow back, breaking above $3,300 and the current sideways movement in lower time frames.

Even so, for risk-averse traders, a clean break above $3,700 will cancel out bears, allowing buyers to build momentum for a rally towards $5,000—or higher.

Bitcoin Bulls Decimated By Rising Treasury Yields: Why Is This Analyst Targeting $120,000?

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

The Bitcoin downtrend remains at spot rates. Following losses over the weekend, the bleed continues, and prices might continue slumping in the days ahead. How the coin performs in the short to medium term highly depends on the reaction at April 13 lows at $60,700. Any breakout confirming losses of Saturday might trigger more selloffs, heaping more pressure on the coin ahead of the all-important Halving event.

How the coin performs hinges on sentiment, a factor highly dependent on price action. On the last trading day, Bitcoin was stable but down 9% in the past week. At the same time, the average trading volume in the past 24 hours is $39 billion, down 9%.

Meanwhile, the following fundamental events might shape prices in the coming sessions:

One analyst says that the positive correlation Bitcoin has with gold could propel the coin by nearly 2X to over $120,000 in 2024. Rising adoption, primarily through spot ETFs in the United States, and the digital nature of the coin gives it an edge.
Rising Treasury yields are why one analyst is scaling down on his exposure to Bitcoin, predicting prices to fall even further in the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve of the United States maintains a bullish stance, given the streams of positive economic data.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

[[BTC/USD]] is within a bullish formation from a top-down preview.

Bears have yet to unwind gains from Q1 2024, even with the current draw down.

Traders can search for short entries if prices are below $68,000 and inside the April 13 bear bar. In that case, the short-term target is $60,000 and $53,000.

Conversely, any upswing above $68,000 will drive Bitcoin back to the last one-month trading range. This might be the foundation of more gains towards all-time highs.

XRP Down 18%: Will DeFi On Ripple Blockchain Prevent A Plunge To $0.40?

Posted on April 16, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

XRP is falling, and buyers are unable to reverse recent losses. As the coin melts down, price action has been tilted to favor sellers. However, this could change if prices float higher today and unwind losses of late last week. Technically, the path of least resistance is southwards, and XRP is within a bear formation, confirming the double tops whose first leg formed in November 2023.

Currently, XRP is down 18% from last week, signaling bear dominance. At the same time, participation is at $2.2 billion in the past trading day, down 6%. This contraction shows that sentiment is down, and traders are staying away from the market for now.

The following XRP and Ripple news might influence price action in the days ahead:

On Sunday, Ripple, the company using XRP in one of their solutions, sold 100 million coins. The batch was from the 1 billion XRP released every month from their escrow account. Out of this, 200 million were moved to a treasury account.
Community users are now proposing the release of an XRPL-based DeFi lending protocol similar to Maker or Aave on Ethereum. If the proposal goes through, XRP and tokenized versions of Ethereum and Bitcoin will be among the tokens supported.

XRP Price Analysis

[[XRP/USD]] is trending lower, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart.

The $0.50 remains a critical resistance level. At the same time, traders should watch the April 13 high of around $0.55.

As it is, prices are inside the bear bar of April 13. This formation suggests that sellers are in control, even with the undervaluation of April 14.

Considering this arrangement, every high may offer entries for shorts with near-term targets of $0.40 or April 13 highs.

A surge above $0.55 might slow the draw down, allowing buyers to flow back and unwind last week’s losses.

Ethereum Fails To Impress: Is Another 20% Drop To $2,600 Incoming?

Posted on April 16, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Ethereum is slipping, looking at the formation in the daily chart. Despite hopes of recovery, sellers didn’t let loose, doubling down instead. So far, the selling momentum is high, and ETH bear bars are banding along the lower BB. If this continues, sellers will likely break away, forcing the coin towards the $2,600 zone in continuation of the bear momentum of mid-March 2024.

Presently, traders are hopeful, but bears appear to be in control. Ethereum is down 15% in the previous trading week. Moreover, market participants have taken a wait-and-see approach, looking at the fast-shrinking trading volume. In the last trading day alone, it fell 4% to around $22 billion.

Even so, investors and Ethereum supporters are looking as the following events unfold:

On-chain activity on Ethereum is slumping as developers prefer options like Solana and Base. This development suggests that users might be engaging slowly with native protocols. The drop has seen gas fees also contract in tandem.
With crypto prices falling, trackers show that Ethereum is trading at a three-year low versus Bitcoin. The drop means more users are flowing to BTC; an asset that continues to enjoy regulatory clarity.

Ethereum Price Analysis

[[ETH/USD]] price, like Bitcoin, is within a bear breakout formation, and under immense selling pressure at press time.

The failure of bulls to flow back and drive the coin above the April 13 highs is a concern.

As it is, every high may represent selling entries for aggressive traders targeting $2,600 in the short term.

Any break above $3,300 may offer relief for optimistic buyers. However, a close above $3,700 will cancel the bearish outlook, paving the way for $4,000 and even a retest of 2021 highs in the medium term.

Conversely, any dump below $2,800, confirming the bear bar of April 13, may see Ethereum drop to $2,600 in the short to medium term.

Bitcoin Dumping Ahead Of Halving: All Hopes Fade As Bears Aim At $59,000

Posted on April 16, 2024 by Dalmas Ngetich

Bitcoin is under pressure even as excitement builds ahead of the Halving event. When writing, buyers are optimistic. However, there are risks of prices falling lower and tumbling below the current trading range. As it is, the odds of sellers taking control and confirming the breakout of April 13 remain from an effort-versus-result perspective. This outlook will be valid if prices drop to around last week’s lows.

At press time, bulls are losing control to sellers. The coin is down 4% in the last 24 hours, and 10% in the past trading week. Even if Bitcoin is bullish from a top-down preview, the current sentiment favors sellers, and they will likely continue pressing lower in the sessions to come. So far, participation has dropped as the average trading volume on the last day is $43 billion.

The following Bitcoin news events might influence price action:

On April 15, Hong Kong approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, one analyst now says its impact might not be big, considering the country’s smaller market and possible low liquidity. Accordingly, he projects BlackRock, and the team will continue dominating the United States.
Despite the current dump, another analyst thinks BTC will soar higher, reaching $650,000 in the coming years. He banks on spot ETF adoption and favorable fundamentals as primary drivers.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

At spot rates, [[BTC/USD]] is changing hands at around $63,000.

The path of least resistance remains northward from a top-down review.

However, sellers are in control in the short term, and Bitcoin is trading within a bear breakout formation.

Traders can initiate shorts on every attempt higher towards $68,000, aligning with the April 13 bar.

If this preview holds, the short-term bear target will be $59,000 and later $53,000.

Forex Signals Brief April 16: Central Bankers Meeting in Washington!

Posted on April 16, 2024April 16, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday’s highlight was the robust performance of March U.S. retail sales, which surged by 0.7%, surpassing expectations of a 0.3% increase. This marked a significant improvement compared to previous months when retail sales were lackluster. Excluding auto sales, the increase was even more impressive at 1.1%, more than doubling the anticipated 0.5% and surpassing the previous month’s 0.3%.

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