Coast clear for Bitcoin to run once again?

Posted on October 12, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Bitcoin surged beyond $63,000 mid-trading session on Saturday as investors relaxed following Mt Gox’s decision to postpone settlement until 2025. According to CryptoQuant statistics, long-term Bitcoin liquidations reached a record high of $300 million on Thursday—a figure not seen since 2022.

Bitcoin lost about 10% of its value between October 1 and October 11, causing holders of long positions to liquidate heavily.
Thankfully, the bulls recovered quickly enough to go on a strong rebound that peaked at about $63,1K this afternoon. Even if the price has subsequently somewhat reversed to where it is now trading, BTC has increased by 2% over the last day.

The appetite for risk remains relatively elevated. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at all-time highs, After sharply rising during the previous week, the U.S. dollar index stalled around 103 index points as traders recalculated expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the wake of strong U.S. jobs data and higher inflation readings.

According to a paper released on Friday by Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han, the outcome of the US election is now the primary macroeconomic factor driving cryptocurrency values rather than monetary policy.

Chinese finance minister’s anticipated briefing on China’s fiscal policies, scheduled for Saturday may be the main driver of cryptocurrency volatility. Coinbase Research, expects investors greater financial support for the struggling Chinese economy and financial markets, which impacts the digital asset market.

Since the April halving event, Bitcoin has been ranging sideways for almost 200 days. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, this will be the longest sideways period following half of Bitcoin if a bull market isn’t initiated within 14 days.

However, the continuous sideways movement in Bitcoin caused STH’s realized share to decline throughout this period, according to information provided by CryptoQuant. Short-term holders are more likely to react to future price movements given that this percentage has dropped from 55% to 40% in just three months.

U.S government tracks down fraudulent crypto firms

Posted on October 10, 2024October 10, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused three individuals considered market makers in the cryptocurrency space, and associated parties, of fraud and market manipulation in civil actions filed in the District Court of Massachusetts.

The Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) were also involved. On October 9, lawsuits were filed against ZM Quant Investment, CLS Global, and Gotbit Consulting. The SEC claims that nine persons were charged in all.

Fedor Kedrov, the marketing director of Otbit Consulting and cryptocurrency vendors, Saitama and Robo Inu is charged with using wash trading to manipulate the market. The practice of exchanging oneself appears in the form of increased market activity

The cryptocurrency venture was designed by Vy Pham, a Vietnamese native, with California residency. The accusations against her included unregistered securities offers, fraud in the offering or selling of securities, fraud in the securities sale, and market manipulation.
Four Pham associates filed separate lawsuits in response to similar allegations. Pham and two of her collaborators consented to separate settlements, meaning that some of the accusations against them might be settled out of court.

ZM Quant and the four individuals associated with Pham were also charged with another cryptocurrency asset, the SaitaRealty coin.
The Justice Department has named eighteen defendants in the combined indictments, one of which is MyTrade MM, a business purported to have supplied services to NexFundAI.

According to the Justice Department, charges have also been filed against entities who designed the VZZN and Lillian Finance coins. The creator of VZZN is connected to Saitama, even if the only connection the two currencies have to the larger investigation.

Gold at $100,000 per ounce, a possibility

Posted on October 8, 2024October 8, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Renowned gold trader Peter Schiff stated that the yellow metal might hit $26,000 or even $100,000 an ounce if it could increase from $20 to $2,600. He discussed his opinions on world economic matters, such as the depreciation of the US dollar, China’s resilience, and the effect of US foreign policy on public debt.

Schiff foresaw a substantial increase in gold prices as the dollar continually dropped in value and warned of possible inflation amid higher geopolitical uncertainty

“Our troops are dispersed worldwide, but we lack the funds to provide them without taking out loans. To keep things this way, Schiff said, “I don’t think the world is going to pay an ever-increasing tribute to the United States.” In his analysis of how conflict affects the economy” . Schiff highlighted the dangers of inflation:

According to the gold advocate, conflict frequently destroys productive capacity, which lowers consumer goods while raising the money supply. The popular metal trader predicted gold’s value could soar as the dollar weakens due to ongoing money printing. He is bullish about gold’s future, predicting a sharp increase in price over the next few decades as the currency weakens. As the economist put it:

“Gold can rise from $2,600 to $26,000 or even $100,000 per ounce if it can move from $20 to $2,600.” Schiff also said the yellow metal is “set to have its best year since 1979.” This year, gold has gained over $540, making it the “largest dollar gain in history.”

However, he said that “investors haven’t added mining stocks to their screens or noticed the bull market.”

The demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which allow investors to buy shares in gold rather than bullion itself, is strong, so the negative risk to gold may be limited. Net ETF inflows have climbed dramatically during the summer, and this is frequently seen as a strong signal of future demand

However recent price action shows Gold is being further pressured by the decreased likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates by another 50 basis points at its upcoming meeting in November. The odds that the Fed will only reduce by 25 basis points (0.25%) or possibly not at all is growing, which is bad news for gold as it implies that the opportunity cost of keeping the non-interest-paying asset will continue to be greater than anticipated.

Micheal Dell sold $1.2 billion worth of Dell Stock

Posted on October 1, 2024October 1, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Michael Dell, the founder and CEO of the massive IT company Dell Technologies (DELL), sold 10 million shares for a total value of $1.22 billion in his second big transaction in September.

The 10 million shares were offloaded by Dell, per a filing that was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on September 30. Dell still had more than 16.91 million shares as of this publication

Micheal Dell has sold its shares twice in as many months. He disclosed on September 23, selling 10 million shares of his own business in seven separate transactions between September 19 and September 23 for almost $1.17 billion.

Bloomberg data indicates that Dell Technologies’ stock increased by more than 58% this year. it was able to re-enter the S&P 500 on September 24 due to the increase, , which is a list of the top 500 publicly traded firms in the world’s largest economy

The tech company is seeing a spike in demand for servers that can handle the demands of running artificial intelligence applications as it rides the wave of interest in artificial intelligence firms.

Although the reason for Dell’s massive stock sales remains unknown, trading activity around the blue-chip stock seems muted. As of September 30, DELL’s share price has increased by 0.74% over the previous five trading days and decreased by just 0.33% during after-hours trading.

Michael Dell is the thirteenth richest person globally, having amassed a fortune of $112 billion. His wife’s trust owns shares of Dell Technologies, which he owns almost half. The remaining portion of his wealth comes from Broadcom stock. The computer manufacturer laid off employees from its sales team in August and announced earlier this month, that it will lay off personnel due to pressure on margins.

Dow Jones Industrial Average posts new high

Posted on September 28, 2024September 28, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high at the last reading session of this week as investors took in fresh information suggesting that inflation readings have moderated.

The blue-chip average during the session hit an all-time high and set a closing record. The Dow 30 gained 137.89 points, or 0.33% to settle at 42,313 index points,

The Nasdaq Composite finished the day down 0.39% at 18,119.59, while the S&P 500 had a minor decline of 0.13% to 5,738.17. However, the technology-heavy index posted losses amid a sell-off in Nvidia.

The S&P 500 and the Dow increased by roughly 0.6% during the third week and the major averages continued to rise. The week saw an almost 1% increase on the Nasdaq.
The U.S. Fed may be more confident in lowering interest rates if traders take heart from the positive inflation data released.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.1% in August, in line with economists surveyed by Dow Jones. PCE grew at an annualized rate of 2.2%, less than the 2.3% estimate.

Investors and policymakers are looking for a sustained decline in monthly inflation rates, enabling ongoing reductions in borrowing costs and lessening the burden on consumer and business balance sheets.

On Friday, the pan-European Stoxx 600 likewise closed at a record-breaking high. With a 0.5% increase, the index ended at 528.33 points. The gains were 2.75% in chemicals stocks and 2.23% in auto stocks. Luxury brands Moncler and LVMH increased by 10.9% and 2.4%, respectively.

Nasdaq 100 futures sink, Nvidia down 6%

Posted on August 28, 2024August 28, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

The U.S. equity market dipped significantly in extended trading after the highly anticipated quarterly results from artificial intelligence (AI) heavyweight Nvidia.

Nvidia’s shares fell 6% during extended trading. The artificial intelligence chipmaker beat both top and bottom line estimates in its fiscal second quarter and provided a positive sales outlook for the current quarter, however, it disappointed traders’ expectations, who were hoping for a stronger beat.

As a result, Nasdaq 100 futures fell. Futures on the S&P 500 dropped 0.5 percent, and futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell by roughly 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, however, rallied by 0.2 percent, at the time of this publication.

The artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia, which has gained more than 150 percent this year, reported strong quarterly results on Wednesday night and fell short of investors’ high expectations.

Shares of the business software giant Salesforce surged 3% after exceeding both top and bottom line projections for the fiscal second quarter and increasing its forecast for full-year profits. Despite lowering its full-year outlook following the global outage in July, CrowdStrike gained 30.5 percent as well, driven by better-than-expected earnings and revenue.

The U.S. equity markets are emerging from a losing session following a downturn in Nvidia shares ahead of the company’s earnings announcement, which affected the major averages. The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.12 percent. The Dow with 30 stocks fell by roughly 159 points, or 0.039 percent.

These actions demonstrate how important Nvidia is becoming to the larger market. Currently holding about 7% of the S&P 500, the semiconductor company broke through the $3 trillion market valuation barrier this year and momentarily emerged as the most valuable public company globally.

Bowman Pushes Back on 50 bps Sept FED Rate Cut Expectations

Posted on August 12, 2024August 11, 2024 by Skerdian Meta

After the soft NFP report last month, the expectations of a 50 bps FED rate cut in September went up above 50%, as markets were seeing a weakening trend in US employment. Last week’s Unemployment Claims improved somewhat the sentiment, bringing the odds of a 50 bps cut at next month’s meeting to around 50-50. However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman appeared over the weekend, commenting on the shape of the economy and the monetary policy, which left the impression that she wants the FED to be cautious about rate cuts.

Continue reading “Bowman Pushes Back on 50 bps Sept FED Rate Cut Expectations” →

U.S Inflation data takes spotlight

Posted on August 12, 2024August 12, 2024 by Olumide Adesina

Markets began the week with mild optimism as investors searched for evidence that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in September.

Investors’ primary concern remains U.S. interest rates, thus the most important economic data point will be Wednesday’s consumer price data. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman softened her typically hawkish tone by praising some additional “welcome” progress on inflation over the last few months. Nevertheless, she added that inflation is still “uncomfortably above” the central bank’s 2 percent target.

The Federal Reserve maintained the policy rate at 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent at the end of July, unchanged from the previous year.

However, the Fed hinted that if inflation continued to decline, a rate cut might occur as early as September. With projections indicating that annual core inflation will drop slightly to 3. 2 percent, the lowest level since April 2021, July’s CPI data is anticipated to demonstrate that inflation has been gradually approaching the Fed’s 2 percent annual target.

Treasury yields increased on Monday

The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 3.9647 percent, up more than two basis points. The 2-year Treasury note recently increased by more than two basis points to 4.0817 percent. Prices and yields move in opposite directions as long as uncertainty regarding this week’s release of new inflation data.

Investors will be closely monitoring the inflation data in light of recent worries about whether the U. S. whether a recession could hit the economy and if a hard landing could have been prevented by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates earlier.

The Fed left rates unchanged at its meeting last month, but it made hints that a September rate cut might be possible based on signals from economic data regarding inflation and the labor market.

Fears of a recession were stoked by a weaker-than-expected jobs report that followed, but they were somewhat dampened by the most recent weekly initial jobless claims data, which came in lower than anticipated last week

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a September rate cut from the Fed, but traders were last divided on the extent of the cut, according to the FedWatch tool from CME Group. Retail sales data for July are also anticipated this week, and they may offer more insights into the health of the economy

Will Amgen and Caterpillar Earnings Save the DJIA?

Posted on August 6, 2024 by Michalis Efthymiou

The Dow Jones fell 1.39% despite its exposure to defensive stocks. However, during the US trading session, shareholders refrained from further selling as leading economists indicated two large rate cuts by the Fed. Additionally, economists assure investors that the data points to a slowdown rather than a recession. Will the Dow Jones rebound?

A potential upward correction for the stock market depends on three factors. Investors would prefer to see stable economic data, though no major US data is due this week. For the Dow Jones to recover, the upcoming earnings data must exceed expectations to soothe investor nerves.

Amgen and Caterpillar will release their quarterly earnings reports before the US session opens. Amgen is the fifth most influential stock for the Dow Jones, and Caterpillar is the sixth, together comprising 10.80% of the index. Both stocks declined on Monday but have beaten earnings expectations for the past four quarters. If they do so again, along with positive forward guidance, a Dow Jones correction becomes more likely.

In the medium to long term, other risks remain. Monday’s decline was also due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports indicate Israel is on high alert, with a potential full-scale war involving Israel, Iran, and Lebanon. Escalating tensions could dampen stock market sentiment and overall market risk appetite.

If earnings from Amgen and Caterpillar are positive and the price breaks above the current breakout level of $39,151.92, a buy signal is possible. Conversely, if the price falls below $38,675, it would signal a bearish trend continuation pattern. Medium-term targets for a bearish trend are $38,410.60 and $38,231 (Fibonacci).

Market Summary

– Investors are buying the dip, but is the collapse truly over? Asian and US indices rebound as the US session opens.
– The Dow Jones rises by 0.40%, but risks persist without positive earnings data.
– Investors are reassured by potential significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with JP Morgan and Citigroup predicting two large cuts in 2024.
– US economic data remains weak, but economists suggest a recession is not yet on the horizon.
– Investors are now focusing on earnings reports from Amgen, Caterpillar, and Airbnb.

The NASDAQ As Earnings Season Kicks-Off!

Posted on July 15, 2024July 15, 2024 by Michalis Efthymiou

The NASDAQ rose on Friday despite higher-than-expected US inflation data. Analysts noted that investors took advantage of lower prices following Thursday’s 2.20% decline. Investors may still seek to increase exposure to stocks and indices, anticipating a rate cut and strong earnings data.

The Producer Price Index came in at 0.2% versus the 0.1% expectation. Investors were concerned that the Core Producer Price Index exceeded expectations by more than double. However, the good news is that the US inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.0%, the lowest since June 2023. Today, investors will focus on the Empire State Manufacturing Index release, which could benefit from a slightly higher reading. Additionally, the Fed Chairman’s speech at 16:00 GMT may trigger volatility depending on his comments.

While none of the earnings reports released Friday were part of the NASDAQ index, they still captured investors’ attention. JP Morgan, CitiGroup, and Wells Fargo all surpassed earnings and revenue expectations, but their stocks depreciated in the following session, with Wells Fargo falling over 6.00%. The primary cause was the cautious forward guidance from all three banks regarding economic conditions in the coming months ahead of the elections. Citi’s US consumer lending division saw profits plunge by 74% compared to last year, with CFO Mark Mason noting a general decline in consumer spending and account balances below pre-Covid levels. Additionally, JP Morgan indicated that lower-income consumers are likely to struggle over the next 3-4 months.

On the technical side, the NASDAQ is trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. The RSI is also above the 50.00 level, indicating that buyers are regaining market control. Buy signals are likely to strengthen as the price crosses above the $20,471.10 and $20,552.77 levels.