Forex Signals Brief Feb 26: PCE and CPI Inflation Highlighting the Week

Last week’s economic calendar was notably quiet, and while the FX market appeared relatively stable at closing, there were underlying movements that hinted at activity. There was noticeable selling pressure on the USD  and the JPY, while risk currencies such as the Euro and the NZD found some decent bids. Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief Feb 26: PCE and CPI Inflation Highlighting the Week”

Forex Signals Brief Feb 23: Will the Stock Market Surge Continue Today?

Yesterday was a manufacturing and services day, with the PMI reports being released from Europe and the US. In the Eurozone, services came out of contraction, with the activity stagnating in January which is positive, however manufacturing dived further in recession, owing to a deterioration in the German manufacturing activity last month. Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief Feb 23: Will the Stock Market Surge Continue Today?”

Forex Signals Brief Feb 22: Attention on Manufacturing and Services PMI

Yesterday the economic data releases were limited, there was little significant news for traders to react to. During the day we saw some selling pressure on the US dollar and Japanese yen, leading to gains in currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. In the US session, we witnessed an unusually weak auction of 20-year Treasury bonds which resulted in a rally in the US dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes. Continue reading “Forex Signals Brief Feb 22: Attention on Manufacturing and Services PMI”

Forex Signals Brief Feb 21: FED Minutes Unlikely to Give Much Today

Powell is rethinking rate cuts?
Powell is rethinking rate cuts?

Yesterday markets were very quiet, with the economic calendar being empty and the US being in observance of Presidents Day, which meant that it was a bank holiday. Consequently, the US stock, bond, and commodity markets remained closed for the day. In the FX market, the price movement was slow, with most assets trading in a tight range due to limited liquidity in the absence of US market participants.

NZD/USD experienced the most significant movement among USD pairs, rising approximately 0.50%. Most of the action happened during the Asian Pacific session, with markets slowing down afterward. Other currency pairs in relation to the USD saw movements of 0.2% or less. Overall, major currencies ended the day lower relative to the NZD, with the CHF being the weakest performer.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today we have the Australian Q4 Wage Growth, with the Year-on-Year (YoY) number anticipated to tick higher to 4.1%, compared to the 4.0% seen in Q3. Despite this anticipated increase, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) foresees a slowdown in wage growth as the labor market stabilizes. This projection aligns with recent labor market data, which indicated some challenges in employment conditions.

The FOMC minutes will be released in the evening. They made significant changes to its statement, reflecting a more balanced stance on rate cuts versus rate hikes. However, it did not raise rates from 5.25% to 5.5% as anticipated. The statement now describes economic growth as “expanding at a solid pace,” replacing previous references to the banking sector as “sound and resilient” and the prediction of potential negative impacts from tighter credit and financial conditions.

Besides that, the Fed included a sentence indicating a better balance between the risks of not meeting inflation and employment targets. A hawkish caveat was introduced, stating that the Fed “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%.” Furthermore, guidance regarding “additional firming” was removed, and replaced with a more dovish or balanced view on “considering any adjustments to the target range.”

Forex Signals Update

Ethereum Breaches $3,000

Although Bitcoin has experienced a significant upswing over the past two weeks, its trade volume is increasing, suggesting that a reverse may be imminent. Bitcoin trade volume increased by 24% yesterday. Despite the lack of significant movement in price, speculators might be preparing to increase Bitcoin’s gains and raise its value to $53,000.Ethereum – Daily Chart

  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750

Forex Signals Brief Feb 20: Canada CPI Expected to Resume the Decline

Canada CPI YoY is expected to fall to 3.2%
Canada CPI YoY is expected to fall to 3.2%

Yesterday markets were very quiet, with the economic calendar being empty and the US being in observance of Presidents Day, which meant that it was a bank holiday. Consequently, the US stock, bond, and commodity markets remained closed for the day. In the FX market, the price movement was slow, with most assets trading in a tight range due to limited liquidity in the absence of US market participants.

NZD/USD experienced the most significant movement among USD pairs, rising approximately 0.50%. Most of the action happened during the Asian Pacific session, with markets slowing down afterward. Other currency pairs in relation to the USD saw movements of 0.2% or less. Overall, major currencies ended the day lower relative to the NZD, with the CHF being the weakest performer.

Today’s Market Expectations

The day starts with the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) rates which are expected to remain at 3.45% for the first year and 4.20% for the fifth year, according to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). On Sunday, the PBoC decided to maintain the rate at 2.50%, with the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) decision typically preceding the LPR move. Following the central bank’s surprise decision to lower the RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio) by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25 basis points, a rate cut at this stage is highly unlikely. If the market had been anticipating such a move, Monday could see disappointment setting in.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of its meeting on February 6th, during which it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.35% and reiterated its commitment to tackling inflation. The board maintained its stance that another rate hike remains a possibility. Despite acknowledging a decrease in inflation during the December quarter, the RBA emphasized that inflation remains elevated at 4.1%. The primary objective of the board remains to bring inflation back to the target level within a reasonable timeframe.

The highlight of the day will be the CPI inflation report from Canada, with the month-on-month (M/M) measure expected at 0.4%, compared to the previous -0.3%. The year-on-year (Y/Y) Canadian CPI is expected to be 3.2%, down from 3.4% previously. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is closely monitoring the common, median, and trimmed mean indicators, which represent underlying inflation trends. While these indicators are approaching the BoC’s target range of 1-3%, the central bank remains cautious and seeks further improvements in wage growth and inflation. It’s worth noting that the underlying statistics in the last inflation report showed a reversal and recorded an increase.

Forex Signals Update

Ethereum Within Reach of $3,000

Ethereum’s price has been on a steady upward trajectory since experiencing a decline in January that brought it close to $2,000. Our decision to initiate a buy signal for ETH at that level proved to be successful, as buyers reentered the market. They have managed to push the price above $2,800 this week, triggering the take profit for our trade. However, the price retraced slightly on Wednesday, dropping by $100. Despite this minor setback, the overall trend for Ethereum remains positive, with buyers demonstrating significant interest in the cryptocurrency.Ethereum – Daily Chart

  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750

Crypto market’s risk appetite highest point since Bitcoin’s record high in 2021 

The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin is at its highest point since it hit $69,000 in November 2021.  

The Fear & Greed Index gauges investor excitement for Bitcoin and other well-known digital assets. It is released by data provider alternative.me. The last time the index achieved a score of 79 out of 100 was in November 2021, at the peak of the bitcoin market, which was approximately $69,000. The index collects data on market momentum, volatility, volume, and social media.

The indicator highlighted that traders have entered a phase of “extreme greed” because of the price of Bitcoin climbing to well above $49,000 and the rise in altcoins. Reaching 79 points for the first time in over two years technically affirmed it has entered the zone of “extreme greed,” which is reached when the index value surpasses 74. 

The Fear & Greed Index gauges investor excitement for Bitcoin and other well-known digital assets. The last time the index achieved a score of 79 out of 100 was in November 2021, at the peak of the bitcoin market, which was approximately $69,000. 

A month after the debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, the continuous Bitcoin rally and the recent surge in greed may indicate that the short-term selling triggered by the news of the ETF’s acceptance has ended.  

CEO of ARK Invest Cathie Wood forecast in the fourth quarter that some investors will “sell the news” of the short-term approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. 

Since October of last year, the index has consistently remained above 70, which is the threshold for “greed.” After the introduction of bitcoin ETFs in January, which at first appeared to be a “sell-the-news” event, it dropped as low as 50. The price of Bitcoin has more than doubled since last year.