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Forex Signals Brief Feb 26: PCE and CPI Inflation Highlighting the Week

Last week’s economic calendar was notably quiet, and while the FX market appeared relatively stable at closing, there were underlying movements that hinted at activity. There was noticeable selling pressure on the USD  and the JPY, while risk currencies such as the Euro and the NZD found some decent bids.

All attention on inflation numbers this week

The surge in Nvidia stock after some impressive earnings which were released on Tuesday improved the sentiment for stock markets, especially for Tech companies, keeping them bullish, which in turn helped risk assets. However, there was some profit-taking later in the week.

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There was some selling pressure on crude Oil due to hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza, which kept the CAD soft and USD/CAD basically unchanged at the end of the week. The CPI report for January showed that inflation is slowing, which also weighed on the CAD.

This Week’s Market Expectations

This is an inflation week, with many CPI (Consumer Price Index) reports to be released from Asia, Europe and Canada, with the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation report highlighting the week on Thursday. I expect the market to be trading slowly without much direction until then. Here’s the economic calendar for the week starting from February 26th to March 1st:

Monday:

  • US New Home Sales for January
  • Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January

Tuesday:

  • Democratic Primary in Michigan
  • German GfK Consumer Climate for March
  • US Durable Goods Orders for January
  • US Consumer Confidence Index for February

Wednesday:

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Policy Announcement
  • Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Final) for February
  • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2nd Estimate and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices (Preliminary) for Q4

Thursday:

  • Australian Retail Sales for January
  • US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January
  • Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4

Friday:

  • Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February
  • US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February

Ethereum Slips Below the $3,000 Level

Ethereum has experienced a notable surge in value in recent weeks, accompanied by a substantial increase in trading volume, indicating strong demand for the cryptocurrency. On Tuesday, buyers pushed the price of ETH/USD above the $3,000 mark, but there was a subsequent dip below this level by the end of the week. However, the fact that the price has remained close to this significant zone suggests that buyers are still exerting control in the market.

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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