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Forex Signals Brief Feb 21: FED Minutes Unlikely to Give Much Today

Powell is rethinking rate cuts?

Yesterday markets were very quiet, with the economic calendar being empty and the US being in observance of Presidents Day, which meant that it was a bank holiday. Consequently, the US stock, bond, and commodity markets remained closed for the day. In the FX market, the price movement was slow, with most assets trading in a tight range due to limited liquidity in the absence of US market participants.

NZD/USD experienced the most significant movement among USD pairs, rising approximately 0.50%. Most of the action happened during the Asian Pacific session, with markets slowing down afterward. Other currency pairs in relation to the USD saw movements of 0.2% or less. Overall, major currencies ended the day lower relative to the NZD, with the CHF being the weakest performer.

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Today’s Market Expectations

Today we have the Australian Q4 Wage Growth, with the Year-on-Year (YoY) number anticipated to tick higher to 4.1%, compared to the 4.0% seen in Q3. Despite this anticipated increase, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) foresees a slowdown in wage growth as the labor market stabilizes. This projection aligns with recent labor market data, which indicated some challenges in employment conditions.

The FOMC minutes will be released in the evening. They made significant changes to its statement, reflecting a more balanced stance on rate cuts versus rate hikes. However, it did not raise rates from 5.25% to 5.5% as anticipated. The statement now describes economic growth as “expanding at a solid pace,” replacing previous references to the banking sector as “sound and resilient” and the prediction of potential negative impacts from tighter credit and financial conditions.

Besides that, the Fed included a sentence indicating a better balance between the risks of not meeting inflation and employment targets. A hawkish caveat was introduced, stating that the Fed “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%.” Furthermore, guidance regarding “additional firming” was removed, and replaced with a more dovish or balanced view on “considering any adjustments to the target range.”

Ethereum Breaches $3,000

Although Bitcoin has experienced a significant upswing over the past two weeks, its trade volume is increasing, suggesting that a reverse may be imminent. Bitcoin trade volume increased by 24% yesterday. Despite the lack of significant movement in price, speculators might be preparing to increase Bitcoin’s gains and raise its value to $53,000.Ethereum – Daily Chart

  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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