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Forex Signals Brief Feb 22: Attention on Manufacturing and Services PMI

Yesterday the economic data releases were limited, there was little significant news for traders to react to. During the day we saw some selling pressure on the US dollar and Japanese yen, leading to gains in currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. In the US session, we witnessed an unusually weak auction of 20-year Treasury bonds which resulted in a rally in the US dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Services are already in expansion in US and the UK

Late in the evening, the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes hinted at hawkish sentiment among FOMC members. However, the lack of a clear message from the minutes resulted in a relaxed market sentiment. Initially, the dollar saw a 20-pip jump in response to the FOMC minutes. However, over the next hour, it reversed these gains, which is common after such releases.

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Natural gas continued the bullish momentum yesterday, albeit at a slower pace compared to Tuesday’s surge, but despite significant increases in gas and crude Oil prices, the Canadian dollar didn’t see much appreciation. Despite some movements and events, the forex market had a relatively calm and uneventful day.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today we have a number of services and manufacturing PMI reports from Europe and the US.

Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMI Expectations

  • Manufacturing PMI: Expected to improve from 46.6 to 47.1. This suggests a slight increase in manufacturing activity, although the sector may still be contracting.
  • Services PMI: Anticipated to increase from 48.4 to 48.7. This indicates a modest improvement in the services sector, although it may still be experiencing contraction.
  • Composite PMI: Expected to drop from 47.9 to 48.5. Despite improvements in both manufacturing and services, the composite PMI is forecasted to decline slightly, possibly due to ongoing challenges in the overall economic environment.

UK Services and Manufacturing PMI Expectations

  • Manufacturing PMI: Expected to increase from 47.0 to 47.5. While still below the neutral 50.0 mark, this suggests a slower rate of decline in manufacturing activity compared to the previous month.
  • Services PMI: Anticipated to remain stable at 54.3. This indicates that the services sector is expected to maintain its growth momentum, potentially contributing positively to overall economic activity.

In the US session, we have the unemployment claims, with the consensus forecast suggesting an increase to 217K initial jobless claims compared to the previous week’s figure of 212K. This metric indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. There is no consensus forecast available for continuing claims at the moment. In the previous week, continuing claims increased to 1,895,000 from 1,865,000. Continuing claims represent the number of individuals who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits.

Ethereum Retreats Below $3,000 Again

Ethereum has experienced a significant upswing over the past two weeks, with the trade volume is increasing, suggesting that the demand is strong. ETH/USD buyers pushed the price above $3,000 on Tuesday, but yesterday we saw a retreat below this level again. However, the price stayed close to this level so buyers still remain in charge.

Ethereum – Daily Chart

  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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