Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 22 – USD and Cryptocurrencies Remain Undecided

Posted on January 22, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Most of the forex majors failed to make new highs last Friday apart from AUD/USD. In fact, the USD closed the day near the highs. But today, it looks like USD traders are uncertain again on what side to take. We are seeing a similar price action in cryptocurrencies. Let’s take a closer look at these two markets.

The USD doesn’t know whether it is feeling sick or well

USD Down, Now Up

The US Dollar is down across the board. It made a dive lower yesterday, right when the markets opened. The US government shutdown affected the USD, although not in all pairs. The Buck stood still against commodity currencies, but it lost about 30 pips against the Yen and 40 pips against the Euro.

That said, the USD reversed and made its way higher during the Tokyo session, but the European session reversed the market again. As a result, the USD is still slipping at the moment.

Nevertheless, we are long on AUD/USD today. We opened this forex signal last Friday and at the moment it is going in the right direction. AUD/USD made a quick dive earlier this morning, but it has been climbing since it met the 100 SMA on the H1 chart.

Although, USD buyers are hesitating to push any higher at the moment. Most of the forex majors have stalled and are not making new highs. This means that a reverse lower might follow. I have a trade in mind, but I will explain it in the forex trades section below.

The Uptrend Hasn’t Resumed Yet in Cryptocurrencies

The cryptocurrency market feels more relaxed now. In December we saw a massive jump higher which was followed by a major correction lower. Most of the altcoins lost more than half their value during this period, but that stopped.

The same price action continued during most of January, but it seems like the volatility has decreased now. This is good for trading cryptocurrencies in the short term. We still hold a long-term buy signal in Bitcoin, so we would appreciate some volatility, hopefully to the upside.

Cryptos actually started climbing higher on Saturday. All major cryptos made some decent gains, with Bitcoin gaining about $1,300. However, the market lost all its gains yesterday. Today the cryptocurrency market doesn’t know which way to go.

The 100 SMA remains in place on the daily Bitcoin chart. That moving average has been providing solid support on dips and at the moment it comes at roughly $10,700. If the price is to respect the 100 daily SMA, then we shouldn’t see Bitcoin touch the $10,000 level. Or at least, it shouldn’t slip below there.

The 100 SMA has now moved above the $10,000 level

Trades in Sight

Bullish USD/JPY

The hourly chart is oversold
The H1 candlestick formed a doji two periods ago
An ascending trendline has formed

USD/JPY is turning higher now

The 110 level looks like it’s holding. The price has been returning to these levels but without being able to break below 110. The lowshave been getting higher, which is a sign that the reverse is coming. Buyers are becoming more confident and are buying this pair higher every time. We might decide to open a buy forex signal at any time, probably with a stop below 110.

In Conclusion

Volatility in financial markets has decreased today. Today’s economic data is very light, so we don’t expect major moves today. That said, I don’t see a clear trend today, therefore, don’t try pushing trades too far. Get what you can and run away with it.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 18 – USD and Cryptocurrencies Make a Reversal, but the Hardship Is Not Over Yet

Posted on January 18, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar and cryptocurrencies have been beaten up badly recently, but yesterday these instruments decided to get up and give it a fight. They formed some chart setups which point to a reversal higher. But the troubles are not over yet, not until the reverse really takes form.

The tumble in Cryptocurrencies continues

The USD Had A Jump-Start Yesterday, but It Hasn’t Come to Life Yet

After such a terrible period, the USD surprised us yesterday when it jumped about 100 pips higher in the evening. It made a quick reversal and ended the day at the highs. The reversal is a bullish signal; the close near the highs of the day is another bullish signal.

The jump came after a couple of FED members delivered some hawkish comments, more notably, Kaplan who used to be a dove. They were both impressed by the US jobs market and Kaplan mentioned rate hikes quite a few times. He banged the drums for more rate hikes than the two that the market is expecting for 2018.

Those comments gave the market the idea that the FED might be more aggressive than first thought with rate hikes this year. That comes a few weeks before the next FED chairperson is elected which we know it will be Powell.

That said, we are not seeing a continuation of that upside move today. EUR/USD dived and closed below 1.22 yesterday, which was a good sign, but today we’re back at 1.2250s. USD/JPY moved to 111.40s from 110 lows, but some moving averages are limiting the upside.

This is not a good sign. If the reverse is to happen, the USD must keep moving higher. Although, big reverses don’t just happen in one or two trading sessions. Perhaps the US economic data later today will give the buyers another reason to buy again.

Cryptocurrencies Are Definitely Making A Reversal, Finally

It seems like the decline is cryptocurrencies has finally come to an end. They lost quite some ground since topping at the end of December. Ethereum fell to $760 at some point yesterday from $1,400 a few days ago.

Litecoin Mini was trading at $336 before Christmas, but it reached $135 yesterday, which is nearly 1/3^rd of the value. Bitcoin dived below $10,000 and almost reached $9,000. This means losing more than half its value in less than a month.

But, today the picture doesn’t seem so gloomy. Crypts are back on their feet and they are pushing higher, albeit slowly. So, now it looks like the reverse is taking form for altcoins.

Actually, it started yesterday and by the end of the day, the signs were very strong. All major cryptos had stopped right at 50 or 100 moving averages on the daily or weekly charts. Besides that, they formed dojis and hammers with the daily candlesticks, which are strong reversing signals.

But unlike the USD which is moving lower again today, crypos are still pushing higher. So, the price action today is another signal of the reverse. Let’s see if the climb will continue further in the next few trading sessions.

This is the perfect chart setup for a reverse

Trades in Sight

Bullish EUR/CHF

The bigger trend is bullish
Stochastic is oversold on the H4 chart
The 100 SMA is providing support
Stochastic nearly overbought

The 100 SMA is holding on the H4 EUR/CHF chart

We opened two buy forex signals in EUR/CHF yesterday in the evening. We closed one of them manually for a 20 pip profit, while the other forex signal is still on. This pair has retraced lower this week, but the retrace seems to be almost complete on the H4 chart. Stochastic is oversold and the 100 SMA is providing support, so hopefully the uptrend will resume soon.

In Conclusion

The US Dollar is still declining today, but the decline is slower. That gives us the impression that the buyers are not that confident today. Perhaps, the US data later today will give USD sellers another reason to be scared, we’ll see.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 17 – Bitcoin Jumps Off the $10,000 Level But Returns for the Big Break

Posted on January 17, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrencies had the worst day yesterday since the beginning of this market. Bitcoin touched the $10,000 level and jumped. But today, cryptocurrencies continue the bearish trend and the $10,000 was finally broken for a moment. Is the run in cryptocurrencies over?

The tumble in Cryptocurrencies continues

Cryptocurrencies Continue the Bearish Trend

Yesterday was definitely the worst day in history for the crypto market. Most of the major digital currencies ended the day 20% lower more or less. You can see that the daily bearish candlesticks in December 22^nd are bigger if we take into account the shadows/wicks. But all cryptos reclaimed more than half of that day’s losses, while yesterday, the price closed near the lows. So, yesterday was the worst day.

Different countries are trying to bring the cryptocurency market under regulation while others such as South Korea and China are banning them altogether. I don’t think you can completely ban a digital currency which has no central institution, but the regulation will definitely increase in my opinion. The reason is money laundering, which at the moment is not that difficult to do with these new currencies.

Yesterday, a Bundesbank official called for a unified global effort on regulating this market. It seems as the cryptocurrency traders don’t like the regulation, so the downside is continuing further today.

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke below $10,000 and reached $9,850 according to my broker’s platform. Although, the price didn’t stay there long and it quickly jumped to $11,380.

That gave us some hope that the downtrend was finally over, after the sellers reached the $10,000 level. But today the decline is stretching further down and Bitcoin has broken the big support level at last.

Our long term buy forex signal in Bitcoin doesn’t look that good. Although, the cryptocurrency market is not dead yet. So, let’s see how it evolves in the coming days.

$10,000 has finally been broken

Is the Reverse Underway for USD/JPY after Failing at 110 for the Second Time?

USD/JPY has been the leader during the latest attack on the USD. The Buck has lost about 300 pips against the JPY in the last several days.

On Monday, the sellers took us down to 110.30. The price retraced higher that day, but yesterday the sellers returned and took us closer to 110. But, the support survived again and now we are back up, near 111.

I highlighted the 110 level a few days ago as a big round number that everyone was looking at. Well, it seems as this level might be the turning point for USD/JPY. The daily chart is oversold and the 100 SMA is providing support down there on the weekly chart.

Yesterday’s candlestick is another bullish signal. It closed as a doji which is a reversing signal after a downtrend. The downtrend of the last several days has run its course on this chart, so the next move should be up towards the top of the range.

Anyone going long from here?

The risk/reward ratio totally justifies this trade. Although I would have liked to see the 110 lows again in order to have a smaller stop loss.

The chart setup looks bullish

Bitcoin is trying to climb today but the moving averages loom above

Trades in Sight

Bearish GBP/USD

The high is getting lower
The USD is reversing in most pairs
The doji candlestick
Stochastic nearly overbought

The 50 SMA is holding

Yesterday we were bullish on GBP/USD, today we are reversing that trade. The USD is starting to reverse higher in most major pairs so GBP/USD shouldn’t be different. Stochastic is almost overbought and the previous candlestick closed as a doji, which is another reversing signal. We might open a sell forex signal at any time now.

In Conclusion

We will follow the crypto market closely. You know, these huge declines have always proved to be great opportunities to buy. Although, we must be very cautious because the spreads are bcoming huge, just like the recent moves.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 15 – This Market Is Not Normal, Trade Carefully

Posted on January 15, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The financial markets today don’t seem to be working as they usually do. They have behaving strange for quite some time, but today they look to be out of sync, hence the low number of forex signals. There is no economic data today and the US is off, so liquidity is thin. Perhaps this has made things worse today.

Financial markets are behaving strangely today

Forex and Bonds Have Lost the Correlation

All financial markets are connected in a way or another. The forex market and the bond market are connected through cash flows. For instance, when the US bond market surges, USD/JPY goes up too.

The idea behind this move is that the cash flows into the USD and out of the JPY when US bonds rally. Investors want higher returns, so they switch to US bonds when the yields go higher.

Today though, the US Dollar and the US bonds are moving in different directions. The Buck is falling off a cliff and there’s no real reason behind this move, it’s just the market sentiment. The yields for the 10 year US bonds are going up at the same time. I’m sure they will correlate again soon, but this shows that the markets are not trading correctly today.

By the way, the decline in the US Dollar seems to have stopped right now. This constant USD selloff has taken most major forex pairs to some interested levels and we just took a long term forex signal in AUD/USD. Although, we will post another forex update about it shortly after this US session brief.

The Chinese Don’t Like Cryptocurrecnies

Last week, the South Korean lawmakers ruled against cryptocurrency trading. They decided to ban crypto trading in Korean exchanges. That sent the cryptocurrency market tumbling for a while, but it didn’t last. Not that altcoins have resumed the uptrend, but at least they aren’t declining any more.

The Chinese are following the same path as their smaller but richer neighbours. They want to top the access to cryptocurrency trading by targeting companies and individuals that provide this service. We don’t know how successful they will be, but that shouldn’t be a good thing for altcoins.

But, there’s no reaction in this new financial market today. Last week, when the Koreans announced the same thing, Bitcoin lost about $2,000. Today, Bitcoin is higher if anything.

That said, the move higher seems too weak so far. So, we’re not going down and we’re not moving higher either. It seems as the crypto market is just trading sideways before the next move. Taking the history into consideration, the chances are that the next move will be up, although we don’t know when that will come.

Bitcoin is trying to climb today but the moving averages loom above

Trades in Sight

Bullish EUR/USD

The uptrend is bullish
The upside has gained further momentum today
The 1.22 level will surely provide some support
The 20 SMA is standing right at 1.22

1.22 looks like a great place to go long from

The price got close to 1.23 today but reversed back down just three pips short of that level. The uptrend has gained further pace today while the USD is still under heavy selling pressure. So, our bias for this pair is long and we plan to open a buy forex signal at 1.22 in EUR/USD.

In Conclusion

The cash flows and the market sentiment are moving financial markets today. Most of these moves don’t make much sense, so we are trying to be careful with forex signals. Although, we will get long on EUR/USD and probably on the commodity Dollars, as soon as this retrace is over. Get ready for more forex signals today.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 10 – Trade War is on Between US and China

Posted on January 10, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Donald Trump warned the world that America was going to be selfish after he got elected. That would likely spark trade wars. Indeed it looks like the two global giants are getting into position. The Chinese announced reducing the purchase of US bonds and the Dollar is getting battered. That’s working well for us though since we have a few forex signals where we are short on the Buck.

The trade war has started

The War Has Started. Who will Win, the US or China?

The slogan of Trump’s presidential campaign was something like “America First” if I recall correctly. He promised to bring businesses back to the US and he’s trying to do just that, although his actions are questionable.

Yesterday, I heard that the White House was going to sanction China on steel and aluminum exports to the US since the trade balance is enormously positive for China and negative for the US. Well, the Chinese aren’t going to sit back and allow that to happen.

They decided to fight back and Chinese officials “recommended” slowing down or even halting the purchase of the US treasuries. Chinese officials have been reviewing FX holdings and supposedly they want to diversify them away from the US Dollar.

This makes some sense, but we know this is about getting the US off their backs. Otherwise, how can you explain this just one day after Trump warned about sanctions on China?

This is all going against the US Dollar at the moment. But, that’s what Trump wants, doesn’t he? Trump promised to bring back business to the US and weaken the US Dollar. I don’t know how much business this administration will persuade to come back to the US, but the Dollar is losing ground as I speak.

We’re not complaining since this move is going in our direction. We closed one of our USD/CAD signals manually for a 20 pips profit. The rest of the forex signals are back on track now after giving us a hard time last night.

The 50 SMA Is Holding Again in Bitcoin. Is the Big Reverse Coming?

Yesterday, we looked at the H4 chart in Bitcoin. The 100 SMA was providing solid support making it seem that the price was about to reverse higher. However, it wasn’t the H4 chart that was driving Bitcoin around, it was the daily chart.

The price of Bitcoin decreased further today and it reached the 50 SMA (yellow). This moving average has been providing strong support since November of last year. It has been holding the uptrend in place during the last few months.

It was pierced for a short period on every attempt to break below it, but the price has reversed back up and the uptrend has resumed. We’re at this moving average again. From the price action, it looks like it is holding again. The price pierced it briefly and reversed back up. Now we’re $700 higher from the lows.

According to this chart setup, Bitcoin is about to resume the uptrend now or at least make a decent bounce. It has done so every time the price has touched the 50 SMA. Sellers couldn’t hold the price below the 50 SMA today, so the next move is up, in my opinion. We’re still long on Bitcoin so we’re holding on to this trade.

The 50 SMA is holding again

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/GBP

The trend is strongly bearish
Stochastic is overbought
The 50 and 100 SMAs are providing resistance
The lower line of the channel is also providing resistance

Looks like the retrace up is running into a strong resistance area now

We opened a sell forex signal earlier on. We sold EUR/GBP at 0.8860. The trend is bearish, so this is just a retrace before the next move lower. The retrace seems to be complete; stochastic is almost overbought and the moving averages are providing resistance together with the lower line of the channel. Let’s hope the downtrend resumes soon.

In Conclusion

That was it for the US Dollar rally. It enjoyed some good times this week but the negative events for the Buck don’t seem to stop. Well, we are short on the USD so, this move goes in our favor. US Crude Oil inventories are due later today, so we’ll keep an eye out since we have an open signal in USD/CAD and the CAD gets heavily affected by this piece of data.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 5 – Bitcoin Breaks the Triangle while Forex Majors Wait for US Employment

Posted on January 7, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

We’re in the first week of 2018 and the biggest fundamental event is the US employment report. The forex market seems to be trading without a clear direction, but the cryptocurrency market is not waiting for anyone. It has made a breakout on the top side, which is great news for us since we have a buy signal in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is pulling itself together again and pushing forward

Bitcoin Finally Makes A Move

The cryptocurrency market has recovered well after the crash right before Christmas. The decline stopped and most digital currencies have slowly crawled their way back up. Bitcoin retraced 50% higher right after the crash, then it moved lower again and in the last week, it has made its way back up, albeit slowly.

That hasn’t been the case with some naughty cryptocurrencies though. Ethereum has been surging this week and it broke the big level today. It jumped above the $1,000 level earlier this morning but it has slipped back below it now. Although, the $1,000 level has weakened now, so it won’t be a big deal for buyers to push above it again.

Ripple has been the other naughty crypto; it has appreciated about 1,500% in the last month. It used to trade around 20 cents a month ago, while now it trades around $3. It has also claimed the second place in terms of market capitalization.

Bitcoin was feeling a bit uncertain in the last few days, but it finally made its mind up and jumped higher. It has been trading between $14,000 and $15,000 during this time, but today it made the decisive move.

It climbed more than $1,000 in the last several hours, moving above $16,000. Now the trading zone for Bitcoin has shifted from below $15,000 to $16,000. We have a live buy signal here and at the moment we are about 1,000 pips in profit, so I’m pretty happy.

The breakout of the triangle I mentioned yesterday finally happened

Forex is Waiting for the US Employment Report

As we mentioned above, the US employment report today is the biggest event of the week. Yes, the Canadian employment report will be released at the same time and both these events have left out on the sidelines regarding USD/CAD.

A bearish chart setup has formed in this forex pair, but these two employment reports can send this pair anywhere so we’re staying out until they get published. This pair has been hanging around 1.25 for quite some time and that shows that CAD traders don’t want to take any sides right now.

GBP/USD moved up early in the morning and broke above the 50 SMA on the H1 chart. That was a bit unnerving for us since we had a sell forex signal here and we were counting on that moving average for resistance.

It reached 1.3577 but didn’t stay up there for too long. Reversed down and ended up just a few pips above the take profit target of our signal. We had to close our GBP/USD signal manually for around 20 pips of profit.

Commodity currencies have also traded sideways mostly. AUD/USD did slide lower earlier today. Although, that move opened up a trade opportunity for us which we took without much hesitation. Hoping that the US employment report won’t ruin the afternoon for us since all our fx signals today have closed in profit.

The US Employment numbers are expected to be around the same levels as last month. But the ADP employment report on Wednesday surprised us positively, so the market is expecting another slightly positive report today. If the numbers are negative though, I think that the buck to take another hit since it would let those expectations down.

Trades in Sight

Bullish AUD/USD

The trend is strongly bullish
An ascending channel has formed
The 20 SMA is providing support

The channel and the moving average are working together

We explained this forex signal in one of our previous forex updates, but this chart paints a clearer picture. The price has been following an upward channel rigorously this week and the 20 SMA has kept the uptrend in place. Now we are at the bottom of the channel, so it seemed and still seems like a good opportunity to go long which we did.

In Conclusion

The US and Canadian employment reports are about to be released. The market is almost frozen at the moment but the storm is coming. Watch the average earnings numbers because they will steal the show, if they deviate from expectations which are for a 0.3% reading.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 4 – Risk is On Across All Markets

Posted on January 7, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Financial markets have been trading in relatively tight ranges this week. However, things are changing. The holidays are over and forex trades are getting back into the swing of things. They seem hungry for action so they’re looking for assets to buy, hence the positive sentiment across all financial markets today.

FX traders feel the need to take risk after the holidays

Nothing Can Stop the Euro When the Risk Is On

The risk is back on in the forex market. Commodity dollars tumbled in the early hours of the morning, but they were back on their feet in no time. The impressive jump in Chinese services immediately improved sentiment for the commodity currencies and the reverse started there.

They started climbing and continued climbing all morning. They’re going through a slight pullback now, but the uptrend has resumed again. We got two winning forex signals in USD/CAD and AUD/USD, so we’re not complaining about this surge.

Although, the Euro is the biggest winner today. Commodity currencies used to gain the most when the market sentiment turned positive. The Euro takes the top spot during such times. I heard rumors that Angela Merkel is going to form a government together with the opposition, so that has played a part in the positive tone in Euro pairs today.

Anyway, EUR/USD traded around 1.20 early in the morning, but it is gaining pace as the sentiment improves. It is heading for 1.21 again at the moment but I’m thinking about a countertrend trade here. 1.21 is a big resistance level and if the buyers fail to break it, this level will become stronger.

A double chart pattern will start to form which is a bearish signal. I’m thinking of opening a long term sell forex signal, but I have to observe the price action.

1.10 is the target if the double top pattern works

Ethereum and Ripple Lead the Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are back on their feet, apart from Litecoin. Litecoin is having another bearish day and it seems like it can’t resume the uptrend like the other altcoins. That’s good though; I’m waiting for a deeper retrace lower in order to open a long term signal. $150 would be a great place since it was the low during that crash in December before Christmas, but we still have to cover some distance until we get there.

We are long on Bitcoin which is behaving better than Litecoin. The lows have been getting higher during the last two weeks which means that the buyers are jumping in higher every time there is a pullback lower. Although, the uptrend hasn’t resumed yet. If we move and stay above $16,000, then we might consider the uptrend back in place. Until then, we have to wait.

Ethereum and Ripple Coin have resumed the uptrend and are steaming ahead right now. Ethereum has gained about 30% this week and it is targeting the $1,000 level, while Ripple is nearly 100% higher. That’s a huge move, especially for Ripple.

Now Ripple has taken the second spot after Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization. With the way it has moved higher in the last few weeks, many analysts think that Ripple will be the big digital currency in 2018 and will overtake Bitcoin, although never in price value I reckon.

We’re almost at $1,000 now

Trades in Sight

Bullish GBP/USD

The trend turned bearish yesterday
The retrace up is done
Stochastic is overbought
The 50 SMA is providing resistance

We’re already in profit with this signal

We opened a sell signal in GBP/USD earlier on and it is already 10 pips in profit. The signs are clear on the chart; the retrace up is over since stochastic is overbought and the 50 SMA (yellow) is providing resistance. Let’s hope that we reach the 100 SMA (green) soon.

In Conclusion

The risk currencies have been having a nice morning. But the jump in US non-farm ADP employment change is reversing the forex market, so take that into consideration. Our sell signal in GBP/USD is progressing nicely and Bitcoin looks like it wants to resume the uptrend, so hold on to your positions.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 3 – USD Finally Catches A Break

Posted on January 6, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

After a strong downtrend over the last two weeks, the US Dollar has finally caught a break. The cryptocurrencies are pulling back lower but this may be a retrace after yesterday’s jump. There might be a trade setup forming here for those who are planning to make some pips from cryptos.

Bitcoin is trying to resume the uptrend again

Is the Big Reverse Finally Underway?

The US Dollar has fallen on some hard times in the last few weeks. This was probably just forex traders closing their trades and positioning themselves before the new year. Year-end cash flows might have had a say in that price action as well.

USD buyers were starving to see some bids and it looks like their prayers have been answered. The Buck is making some decent gains against some of the major forex pair, so hopefully a reverse might be forming. After all, it’s about time.

EUR/USD got close to 1.21 yesterday but it stopped just below that big level at 1.2080. It started sliding lower yesterday but today it is picking up pace. Right now, we are about 10 pips above 1.20. That will be a big level.

Keep in mind though, that the FOMC minutes later in the evening can take us anywhere, so don’t count too much on this level as we approach its release.

GBP/USD is also moving lower but it has just reached the 50 SMA on the hourly forex chart. This moving average is likely to provide some strong resistance, so we decided to go long on EUR/GBP.

The Swiss Franc has been one of the weakest currencies today. That went in our favor though; we had a live buy signal in EUR/CHF which we opened a few days ago. We just closed it manually for a 24 pips profit as this pair climbed higher today,

Cryptocurrencies Retracing Lower This Morning but the Uptrend Has Resumed

This morning, cryptocurrencies have been declining. Bitcoin is down to $14,700 right now from above $15,00 earlier on, while Ethereum is still trading near the record highs it set yesterday.

If you are looking at the 15-minute chart only, today’s decline might look bearish. But, looking at the daily chart, particularly the Ethereum and Ripple Coin charts, the picture seems pretty bullish.

Cryptocurrencies went through a flash crash at the end of December, losing somewhere between 30% and 50% of their value. Now, they’re back on their feet. Ethereum made new highs yesterday while Ripple Coin XRP climbed to record highs again today.

Bitcoin is still far from $20,000, but the $2,000 jump yesterday was a sign that the main digital currency is trying to catch up with the rest of altcoins. This sort of price action tells us that Bitcoin buyers have gained confidence and the uptrend is resuming.

I don’t know if Bitcoin will break the $20,000 anytime soon, but we don’t need that. All we need is a few hundred pips. If you are looking to trade cryptos, today’s retrace lower after yesterday’s jump is a good opportunity to go long. We are long on Bitcoin since late December, but we might be lured into another long term trade, probably in Ethereum or Litecoin.

Trades in Sight

Bullish GBP/USD

The trend has turned bullish for more than a week
The retrace lower looks complete
The 50 SMA is providing support on the H1 chart
Stochastic is oversold

As I said above, GBP/USD slipped lower this morning and some of that decline came from lower UK construction numbers. This is not a very important sector for the UK economy, so its impac on GBP is limited.

The retrace lower in GBP/USD seems to have run its course. Stochastic is oversold and the 50 SMA is providing support on the H1 chart. This might be a good time to go long on this forex par with a short term signal.

In Conclusion

The US Dollar is trying to fight its way back as it makes some reasonable gains. The FOMC meeting minutes are due to be released in the afternoon, so if you have open trades, don’t try to push them too far because the minutes could send us in any direction.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, December 29 – USD Ends the Year at the Lows

Posted on January 1, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The Dollar started the year on the back foot and it is ending it in the same way. It came as a surprise at the beginning of the year but it is not such a surprise now. Although, I expect next year to be different for the US Dollar, which I will explain why on this midday brief.

A terrible year for the Buck by all means

Officially One of the Worst Years for USD

This has been a terrible year for the US Dollar. The USD got a big boost when Donald Trump got elected president in October 2016 and continued to rally until January this year. Trump had promised a tax plan which supposedly would make it easier to make business in the US and help the economy, so USD traders got excited.

But, come January and everything turned around 180 degrees. The USD started a downtrend, which turned out to be one of the strongest ones in recent history.

In fact, in the last decade we have only seen this sort of decline only happen once, at the height of the global financial crisis in 2019. Although, that decline was justified at that time by the economic crisis that the world hasn’t seen since before WW2.

This year, the decline was mostly due to the market sentiment and that sentiment was formed by political events, particularly in the US. Financial markets are not used to this sort of leadership, so they got the idea that Trump might not last long on the job.

But, that doesn’t look likely now and that’s why I think that next year will be better for the US Dollar. The other reason is that tax bill has passed and next year the US economy will feel some of the effects of it, which are supposed to be positive for the economy, as I mentioned above.

The reverse might not start immediately at the beginning of the year, but I have this feling that this is going to be a good year for the Buck. Or, the reverse might as wells start right away, just like this year.

The USD index is closing the year near the lows

Cryptos Are Pausing Before the New Year

The financial markets have been getting increasingly strange this year. Trump’s election as US president and Brexit are among the major reasons, but also other political tensions have affected the markets. But, the emerge of the crypto market is among the major reasons in my opinion.

Cryptocurrencies have been around for nearly a decade since Bitcoin was conceived. They have been relatively stable in the past years, but this year was different. A gold rush began early this year and everyone wanted a piece of action.

So, they started surging and in the last few months everything got out of hand. Bitcoin started below $1,000 and almost reached $20,000, while other cryptocurrencies increased their value many times. Ethereum nearly reached $1,000. Having started from around $10, the increase accounts for around 10,000% or 100 times, which is huge.

Although, last week, we saw a sharp retrace lower in most major cryptocurrencies. Then, this week, we saw another retrace of the previous retrace, this time higher of course. That was quite violent as well; Bitocin gained about $6,000 in just a few trading sessions, until Tuesday morning.

Now it seems like the storm has passed and the waters calmed. Today, cryptocurrencies have been trading in a relatively tight range. Most of them are stuck in between moving averages, but we will post another update shortly explaining the chart setup, so hang around.

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD, Again

The trend has turned bullish in the last three weeks
The uptrend picked up pace this week
The USD is getting battered

Waiting for a retrace lower to go long again

I’m looking again to open a buy forex signal in this pair. The chart setup is still the same as yesterday, with the uptrend getting even stronger. Although as you might know, I don’t like jumping on a trend at any level. So, I will wait for a retrace lower, probably to the 20 SMA (grey) or 50 SMA (yellow) on the H1 chart.

In Conclusion

The cryptocurency market is somewhat more relaxed today, but the USD battering continues. The liquidity is extremely thin, which explains the price action, so don’t try to make a killing today. Next year is coming and there will be plenty of opportunities to make a killing then.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, December 28 – Santa Has No Surprises for the USD

Posted on January 1, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

As we know, we are in the Christmas period which is known for causing strange reactions in the market. Yet, the markets are doing what they have been doing the entire year; the USD is being knocked down once again, for no apparent reason. Similarly, Cryptocurrencies have resumed last week’s decline after a decent climb in the last couple of days.

Santa is going through a check-up in the US so he hasn’t arrived there yet

USD Ends the Year on the Opposite Side

The US Dollar started the year at the best place possible; Trump’s election improved sentiment towards the Buck and it gained nearly 18 cents against the JPY in the last two months of 2016.

EUR/USD had just broken the low of the previous two years, so it looked like it was headed for parity. I did say back then that a turnaround was coming for this pair since the European economy had left the rough times behind. Although, I honestly didn’t think it would climb all the way to 1.20.

Yet, it did break above 1.20 in August and it has been trading around these levels ever since. We have seen a few attempts from the sellers over the last few months, but they didn’t even reach 1.15.

Today’s forex market seems to have taken the opposite side of the USD and EUR/USD is making new highs for the month. This is not good news for the USD; the market was short on the USD all year long. The Buck should see some sunshine at the end of the year since forex traders close some of their sell positions before the new year begins. Nevertheless, the USD is still declining, even in these last two days.

EUR/USD seems unstoppable this week

Cryptos Bounce Back but the Nightmare Is Not Over

Last week, the cryptocurrencies must have given a mini heart attack to many forex traders as the crypto market lost about half its value. It took Bitcoin about a year to reach the $20,000 level, having started below $1,000 in January. It lost half that value last week when the price tumbled to around $10,000 on Friday.

That happened across the entire crypto market. Litecoin went from $350s to $140s in just a few days. Ethereum joined the tumble too, albeit quite late as it was holding on to the gains until Friday.

Although, the tumble stopped on Friday afternoon right after Bitcoin got close enough to the $10,000 level. That was the target in my opinion; once the target was reached, the retrace was considered complete by Bitcoin traders.

Altcoins started reversing back up and that claimed back about half the losses. Bitcoin climbed from above $10,000 on Friday, to $16,500 according to the price I see on my crypto broker’s platform.

That was a quick reverse. Imagine, Bitcoin lost about 5,000 pips in a single day, then it climbed about 6,000 in the next two trading sessions. That’s some hectic price action, but we have gotten used to that over the last two months.

I don’t think that cryptocurrencies have left the troubled times behind just yet. Bitcoin has lost about 3,000 pips since yesterday morning. Ethereum and Litecoin are also down today, so the bears are not dead yet and the downside is not over. Maybe it’s just the Christmas market that’s causing all this. We will see how this new financial market behaves next week when the liquidity comes back to normal.

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD

The trend has turned bullish in the last three weeks
The uptrend picked up pace this week
The H1 chart is oversold

The 50 trend line is a better place to go long from

Commodity Dollars have enjoyed some great times recently, some of it at the expense of the USD. Today, they made another push higher and AUD/USD climbed 50 pips higher. In the last few hours though, we have seen this pair form a retrace lower, which looks like it’s over for the moment.

The stochastic indicator is oversold on the H1 chart. Yesterday’s high is providing support as I speak and the 20 SMA (grey) is adding strength to this area, even though it has been pierced. I’m thinking of opening a buy forex signal in this pair soon.

In Conclusion

Market sentiment is driving the markets today and I expect it to continue this way until next Tuesday when forex traders get back from their Christmas holidays. The US unemployment claims are due soon, but I doubt they will do much. Watch the crude oil inventories though, because the CAD is very sensitive to this piece of data.