Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 7 – Profits Abound as Cryptocurrencies and USD Reverse

Posted on February 7, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

We finally experienced a jump in cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies have had an impressive run over the last 24 hours. Is this the reversal we’ve been waiting for? Is the USD reversing too after trading in a downtrend for more than a year? Let’s have a look at everything new in the market…

Cryptos have been surging over the last few trading sessions

USD Finally Gaining

The US Dollar has been stuck in a steep downtrend for more than a year. The pullbacks have been pretty shallow. Every decent retrace has been seen as a possible reverse and has attracted attention. At the end of the day, all retraces have ended in smoke and the downtrend resumed once again.

At the moment, the USD is going through such a period. The USD gained some considerable ground in the last several days, encouraging USD bulls.

The Dollar is not exactly running away with the money, but it is progressing steadily. The major currencies are having difficulty retracing against the USD, apart from the Yen, of course. The Yen found some strong bids yesterday when the equity markets crashed. This saw the cash flows head towards safe-haven currencies.

The Euro seems to lose whatever gains it makes; EUR/USD retraced about 890 pips higher yesterday evening, but it lost them pretty quickly this morning. The GBP is nearly five cents higher against the Buck, dooming this forex pair.

The commodity currencies have also hit a rough patch with the USD advancing constantly against the AUD and the CAD over the last couple of weeks. The Kiwi is showing resilience though. We had a buy forex signal in this pair yesterday which hit TP after the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% in New Zealand last night.

We can’t tell if this is a proper reversal or whether this is just another pullback before the next leg of the downtrend. USD bulls still need to push higher for the bigger trend to reverse. The coming days will tell us if the sellers have really given up.

Are Cryptocurrencies Finally Reversing Too?

Cryptocurrencies have had a hard time these last few weeks. However, it looks like they may have gotten to the light at the end of the tunnel. The price action of the last two days looks very promising for cryptos.

The H1 Bitcoin chart looks great for buyers. Bitcoin has gained more than $2,000 in the last 24 hours, starting from below $6,000. This means that Bitcoin value has gone up more than 35% during this time.

Bitcoin is breaking moving averages one after another on the H1 chart

You can see the bullish price action in the last hourly candlestick. Sellers tried to push lower after two sessions of trending higher. But, once they reached the 100 SMA on the H1 chart, the buyers jumped in and took the price above the opening level. This is pretty bullish.

Litecoin is still in a downtrend in the larger timeframe charts

Yet, the larger timeframe charts still look bearish. As you can see from the daily Litecoin chart, this looks like another retrace higher, unless all the moving averages that stand above get broken.

Bitcoin did jump from the 200 SMA on the daily chart, while Litecoin jumped from the 100 SMA. We made a nice profit from Ethereum yesterday and from Bitcoin today, so we’re not complaining.

Trades in Sight

Bearish AUD/USD

The trend is changing
The jumps higher are getting weaker
The moves down are getting stronger

Moving averages are turning into resistance now, after being broken to the downside

While NZD/USD keeps showing resilience, the other commodity Dollars aren’t. The CAD has lost nearly 300 pips in the last few days, while AUD/USD has slipped 300 pips lower. The trend is changing, but I’m waiting for a retrace higher in order to open a sell signal. The 100 SMA (red) looks like a good place to go short since it provided resistance earlier today. Although, we must wait until the price retraces up there, if it does.

In Conclusion

Later on today we will have the US Crude Oil inventories, which will affect USD/CAD. I hope to see some drawdown on the inventories, sending USD/CAD lower. If that happens, I will look to buy this pair, since it is reversing the trend. In the evening, we will have the rate decision from New Zealand, but there’s plenty of time until then.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 6 – A Run for Safe Haven in Forex, While Cryptocurrencies Make A Dead at Bounce

Posted on February 6, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Last night there were some events which sparked fear in some parts of financial markets. As a result, safe haven assets found some strong bids, which sent the CHF and JPY surging. Cyptocurrencies continue to extend the downside, but there’s still hope for the Buyers on the horizon. Check out further below to see what we mean by that.

A Run for Safe Haven Sends USD/JPY to That Big Level Again

Last night there was something strange going on in the financial markets. XIV which is an ETF betting against volatility closed at around $100 per share last night, but after the market closed it declined to just $4.That happened right before midnight central European time when the liquidity is the thinnest since the US markets are closed and the Tokyo session hasn’t started yet.

Credit Suisse owns a large part of the XIV shares valued at about $550. After the move, the value of the shares that Credit Suisse holds declined to around $5 million. Although, credit Suisse was let off pretty easy by the markets, as its shares only lost about 5%.

Nonetheless, the equity market received a shock from that. S&P lost about 1,000 pips in several hours and so did Dax. Nikkei was closed at that time but it opened with a 1,000 pip gap lower as well.

So, there were jitters in the financial markets late yesterday. When there’s something going wrong, safe haven currencies get all the attention and that’s what happened last night.

EUR/CHF fell around 100 pips in a few hours, although it is retracing higher now. This retrace has brought up a trade, which we took a while ago and will explain why in the trades section below. USD/JPY also lost some considerable ground; it fell from 110 to 108.40s. It fell to this big level again and it looks like this level is holding again. We will take a deeper look at this pair in the next forex updates though.

There’s Still Hope for Cryptocurrenceis, Technically Speaking

Cryptocurrencies continue their tumble today. They made a dead cat bounce last evening when Bitcoin jumped nearly $1,000, but as we have often seen recently, every bounce has been overwhelmed by sellers and the downtrend has resumed.

That’s what happened last night; cryptos bounced but the downtrend resumed and extended further. This morning, cryptocurrencies bounced again nearly $1,000, but this time the bounce happened at some major levels.

As we mentioned in the previous forex update, Ethereum reached the 100 SMA (red) on the daily chart. That is a major technical indicator on the daily chart. The stochastic indicator is also oversold, which increases the odds of a reversal.

Bitcoin reached the 200 SMA on the same timeframe chart and it looks lit this moving average is holding. This might be the time that the sellers finally called it a day and the buyers get busy. I know we have said this a few times before, but these moving averages are very visible on the timeframe chart that most forex traders use, the daily chart. So, let’s see if the big reverse finally takes place today.

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/CHF

The downtrend picked up pace last night
Stochastic is overbought on the H1 chart
The 50 SMA is providing resistance on the H4 chart

If the H4 candlestick closes as it is, then it will be another bearish signal

We opened a sell forex signal in EUR/CHF a while ago as this pair was retracing higher. The retrace was over on the H1 chart since the stochastic indicator reached overbought levels. Also, the 50 SMA (yellow) was providing resistance on the H4 chart when we were thinking of opening the signal, so we decided to pull the trigger.

In Conclusion

The US Dollar seems to have attracted some bids today as it is pushing higher against all major currencies. So, the USD might be reversing after such a strong downtrend, after all. The equity markets are recovering from last night’s tumble, but the volatility is still high, so be careful when trading stocks and indices today.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 5 – Ready to Buy Litecoin As Cryptocurrencies Slide

Posted on February 5, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The UK services report’s dive this morning gave the British Pound a big reality check. This is despite the fact that forex markets tend to stay quiet on Monday mornings. Cryptocurrencies are heading south today and we are thinking of opening a forex signal in Litecoin.

Litecoin is resisting better than other major cryptocurrencies today

Brexiteers Lose Confidence

The GBP went through some great times last month as hopes for a soft Brexit picked up again after comments from UK and European officials. The GBP rallied throughout January causing GBP/USD to gain more than eight cents.

The GBP retraced by the end of the month and then resumed its uptrend. Although, last Friday, the UK construction report came just a tick above the 50 level, which is the breakeven level. That poured some cold water on GBP bulls and the GBP started reversing.

The market has been waiting for today’s services report since it is the most important sector of the British economy. The report was negative because it showed that the pace of expansion slowed.

Last month’s report came at 54.2 points and this month was expected to be the same. The actual number came at 53 PMI points causing Brexit fears to surface once again. The GBP started diving and it is now about 100 pips lower.

If the construction and services sectors lose steam so quickly, the UK economy will be in contraction in a few months and Brexit hasn’t even started yet. That’s bad news for GBP traders but good news for us. We have a long-term sell forex on this pair, which we opened at 1.36. We moved the stop loss to 1.4370 and it survived the surge. Now it looks safe.

Long on Litecoin

Last week was a bad week for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin lost about $4,000 and finally broke and closed below the major support level at $10,000. Ethereum dived below the $1,000, which is the equivalent of the $1,000 in Bitcoin.

Litecoin lost nearly half its value last week, falling from around $200 to $106, according to my broker’s platform. Last week we went long on Litecoin at $160, but took a loss as the decline in cryptos accelerated.

Litecoin bounced on Friday and Saturday last week, climbing above $170. That climb led us to believe that the decline in cryptocurrencies was over. Nevertheless, yesterday, the decline resumed again and now Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken last week’s low.

Although, the losses in Litecoin over these last two days are not as big as in other cryptos. Litecoin is about $30 above Friday’s lows. This sort of price action looks a bit bullish in my opinion. If Litecoin can’t make new lows, then it is likely to jump higher when the other cryptocurrencies reverse. We know that the reverse in the crypto market is quite violent.

At the end of last week, Litecoin jumped nearly $70, so there’s some good profit to be made on the bounces. We are looking to buy at current levels with a stop below $90 and a target at $170 first. Afterwards, we might extend if the price action supports it.

Trades in Sight

Bullish Litecoin

The price is not making new lows
The bigger trend is still bullish
The retrace lower seems to be complete

As we mentioned above, Litecoin has been declining in the last two days. But sellers are failing to make new lows while other cryptocurrencies have broken last Friday’s lows. This means that the move down might be over for the time being. So, we are thinking of going long on Litecoin again, after all, the big trend is still bullish.

In Conclusion

The UK services report was negative making it the second negative report from Britain in just a few days, after the terrible construction report last Friday. This has placed the GBP on a bearish path, so we remain bearish on the GBP for now. The rest of the forex market remains pretty quiet today and I don’t expect much volatility until the day ends.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 2 – Is This the End for Cryptocurrencies?

Posted on February 3, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar is getting some bids today while cryptocurrencies are under heavy selling pressure. There is no relation between the crypto market and the USD. So, it is just the cryptocurrecies that are losing the ground beneath their feet today. They have broken December lows, so it is getting pretty nasty out there.

Cryptocurrencies were falling apart a minute ago but they are fighting back now

The Bubble Is Bursting but There is Still Life Left in Cryptocurrencies

After declining for several weeks, it seems as the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. All major cryptocurrencies have lost more than half their value during this period since topping out two days before Christmas.

In fact, at some point today, cryptocurrencies were down about 15% on the day and the day is still young. Bitcoin broke below the December and January lows, reaching $7,934, while Litecoin lost nearly a third of its value just today.

Recent developments have hit the cryptocurrency market pretty hard. Certain governments are trying to regulate the market and some altcoin exchanges have been closed. This week a cryptocurrency called AriseBank has been shut by the SEC. Evander Holyfield was endorsing it apparently, but that doesn’t matter.

Facebook also said earlier this week that it was restricting cryptocurrency adds. Tether has been one of the main altcoins for Bitcoin holders to cash out, since tether is pegged to the USD. But it has struggled to gain access to the main banking system, so that has scared Bitcoin holders.

However, the crypto market is reversing as I speak and it is reversing pretty quickly. Now. cryptocurrencies have paired most of today’s losses. It has become pretty difficult to trade cryptos nowadays; the declines don’t seem to stop while the reverses are pretty violent too. We’re still looking to get long in Litecoin again or perhaps in Ripple.

US Earnings Give Hopes to USD Bulls

The USD remains to trade on a strong downtrend, but today the buyers have something to be positive about. The US Dollar started to fight back this morning and as the day progressed, the USD buyers gained more confidence.

But, the surprise came from the US employment report. The new jobs came 20k above expectations and last month’s number was revised higher as well.

Although, the wages took the spotlight, as it is usually the case. Average hourly earnings came a 0.3% against 0.2% expected, while the previous number was revised higher a decimal point. That’s encouraging, considering that the personal income has been sluggish, while the other sectors of the economy have been performing pretty well.

This is a very positive sign. If next month surprises us again, then the US Dollar should start reversing this strong downtrend. There’s still plenty of time until then and politics remain in the way of the USD reversal. But, the US official might relax their dovish rhetoric if the data keeps coming like today.

Trades in Sight

Bullish USD/JPY

The downtrend has ended
The reverse is underway and it has picked up pace

I’m waiting on a retrace to any of the moving averages below

The downtrend finally ended for USD/JPY and the reverse is underway. Today this forex pair is more than 100 pips higher from opening levels and 200 pips higher from the lows. Although, I will wait for a retrace lower to the 200 SMA (purple) before going in. The risk/reward ratio will be much better.

In Conclusion

The volatility has just picked up in forex after the US employment report came out stronger than expectations. The volatility in the crypto market remains extremely elevated since they have lost and then gained a large part of their value. So, be careful out there guys.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 1 – Yellen Failed the USD

Posted on February 2, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday was Yellen’s last appearance as head of the FED. USD buyers were hoping for a last minute gift from Yellen, but it didn’t happen and we had some difficulties with our forex signals. Cryptocurrencies are not doing much better than the Buck and Bitcoin has broken below the $10,000 level.

Trump won this war with Yellen

No Free Lunch from Yellen for the USD

Janet Yellen said her last goodbyes as the head of the Federal Reserve yesterday. She’s not out of the office yet for a few more days, but this was the last FED meeting that Yellen directed.

The FED kept the interest rates unchanged yesterday, as expected. The US Dollar did gain about 100 pips after the meeting. It has returned most of the gains, apart from USD/JPY which is still running higher today. Although, that has more to do with the JPY, to be honest.

The Aussie and the Kiwi are also down today, but we can’t say that this is coming from the USD side. Yellen did leave a gift for Powell who will take her spot later this month. The odds for a rate hike in the next meeting, taking place in March, are near the top, so she has left a rate hike in the closet for Powell. At least, it takes the pressure off of him in making such a decision since he will be new at the job.

Looking at the broader price action the day after the FED meeting, it is obvious that the US Dollar can’t get its head above water. Yellen didn’t help US bulls, but I don’t blame her. There is a currency cold war going on and the US is winning it. The USD decline is all political.

Has the Market Sobered Up on Cryptocurrencies?

The cryptocurrency market is having another bad day. Most of the major cryptocurrencies are about 10% lower today. This is the fourth consequent day that altcoins are declining.

Looking at the larger timeframes, cryptocurrencies have been in a bearish trend over the last six weeks. This doesn’t look good. We’re used to seeing cryptocurrencies progress higher after every dip, but this dip is taking way too long.

Bitcoin has lost about half its value during this time and looks like today will be the day that it finally breaks below $10,000 for good. It has pierced this big level many times recently, but it never closed the day below it. Today seems like we might close below the $10,000 level, although, there’s still plenty of day left until it is over; we might see another reverse higher.

The big level looks pretty weak today

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/CAD

This pair is following a strong downtrend
The hourly chart is overbought
The 100 SMA is providing resistance on the H1 chart
The 20 SMA is providing resistance on the H4 chart

The 100 SMA has been providing resistance all day long

USD/CAD has been trading in a downtrend over the last two months. But since yesterday evening, the commodity Dollars have been in retracement mode. This has presented us with a few trading opportunities. We went long on NZD/USD a while ago. We might sell USD/CAD because the retrace looks complete. The 100 SMA has been providing resistance on the H1 chart since last night making a sell order looks tempting.

In Conclusion

We have the US industrial production report coming up. Although, as I mentioned, the US Dollar is prone to political war on currencies now, so I doubt the economic numbers can alter the charts.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 31 – Cryptocurrencies and Forex Undecided Ahead of the FED

Posted on January 31, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Today is the last time that Janet Yellen heads the FOMC meeting. The forex market is waiting to see what will happen. Perhaps a last minute surprise is in the works. Cryptocurrencies also look suspicious today, but I don’t think it has anything to do with the FED.

No one wants to pick sides ahead of the FED

USD Having Another Tough Day at the Office

It looked like the US Dollar was forming a reverse from last Thursday until yesterday. It started to move higher after Trump’s comments for a strong Dollar, but the market is not taking his word for more than 200 pips.

Yesterday, the downtrend resumed for the USD, that caught us on the wrong foot. The Buck lost around 100 pips against the Euro and 200 pips against the GBP and the downtrend is not over yet. Commodity currencies are still pushing higher today.

USD/CAD should have moved higher since Oil is nearly $3 lower so far this week, but the correlations are out of whack. The market is just trading the US Dollar at the moment. One day it’s down, the next day it’s up. Well, it’s been down most of the time.

Today the USD decline has been confined to commodity Dollars only. The Euro and the Yen are barely changed, while the GBP has turned around after the EU rejected the proposal from the City of London for a free deal on financial services.

Janet Yellen’s last meeting as head of the FED is taking place in the evening. Forex traders are interested to hear her last words. There are no expectations for a change in the monetary policy, but we can’t rule out surprises. The forex market is just trading sideways and I expect it to continue until Yellen speaks.

Cryptocurrencies Might Have Formed a Bottom for the Week

Digital currencies have been sliding lower over the last two days, without any bounces whatsoever. From what I can see from the hourly charts, most major cryptocurrencies have been pushed lower by the 20 SMA on the hourly charts.

When the smaller period moving averages take control on a downtrend, it means that the sellers are pretty active since they’re not letting the price push above them, in this case, the 20 SMA.

But that moving average has now been broken in all major cryptos. Litecoin approached the $150 level today, but it bounced back up. We opened a long-term buy signal here which we will explain in the trades section below.

The price action in Bitcoin looks bullish too. Last night, Bitcoin sellers pushed below the $10,000 level and briefly broke last week’s low. Now we are back above it and above the 20 SMA, so it seems like a reverse higher is forming here.

Ethereum approached the $1,000 level but the 100 SMA held its ground on the H4 timeframe chart. Now Ethereum is about 10% higher. Looking at the daily chart, I can see the price respecting an ascending trend line, which means that the uptrend is still in play for Ethereum.

The trendline remains unbroken for Ethereum

Trades in Sight

Bullish Litecoin

The H4 chart is oversold
Last week’s low provided support
The 100 SMA provided support on the daily chart

A support area has formed at $160

Yesterday, I posted the daily chart for Litecoin with a highlighted 100 SMA. We reached that moving average today and it stood its ground, providing solid support. The price reversed back up after that taking out last week’s low. The stochastic indicator is oversold on the H4 chart and is reversing higher. We decided to open a long-term signal here based on this chart setup.

In Conclusion

Today is Yellen’s last appearance so I will make sure not to miss her speech. The market is not expecting much but is still wary of any nasty surprises. I expect the price action to be pretty quiet until the evening.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 30 – Dizzy USD, Bitcoin Respects the Channel

Posted on January 30, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

In the last few days, it looked like the USD was turning around, which might actually be the case. But, these major reversals take time and are not that straightforward, so our forex signals have had mixed results. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been following the channel that we highlighted yesterday, so we decided to take a trade at the bottom of the channel.

Up and down goes the Dollar

Big Reversals Are Difficult to Form

After trending down for a year and accelerating the decline over the last several weeks, the USD is starting to fight back. Most major pairs reached major levels, so a decent pullback is due, if not a reverse.

As we mentioned in the previous forex update, USD/JPY has reached the big support area around 108. EUR/USD broke above 1.25 and AUD/USD is playing with the 0.80 level, where we can find the 100 SMA on the monthly chart. This moving average is a strong resistance indicator for this pair.

Although, this morning we are seeing a reversal in USD pairs. The market is going against the Dollar once again, which isn’t a big surprise.

The buck started the day on the right foot and it progressed higher during the Tokyo trading session. However, the reverse has been pretty quick during the London session so far. The USD has been falling for so long that if it is to reverse, such a reversal will take its time.

The buyers are not confident yet. They will need some time and some more hawkish comments from the US in order to go in with some big bucks. Donald Trump said last week that the US needs a strong USD, but he will have to repeat it again for the market to take seriously.

Bitcoin Respects the Ascending Channel

Cryptocurrencies have been very volatile during December and most of January. But, they seem to have found their balance now. The volatility in the crypto market has decreased considerably over the last two weeks.

Spreads have become a bit narrower as well, though they remain pretty wide if we compare them with forex spreads. It is much easier to trade cryptocurrencies since they are respecting technical levels.

We highlighted an ascending channel in Bitcoin yesterday and it seems like Bitcoin traders are looking at the same thing. They have been respecting the channel; we know that the more traders look at a technical indicator, the more likely it is to work properly.

The channel is working. After touching the top of the channel on Monday morning, Bitcoin reversed lower and today the price reached the bottom line of the channel. The sellers have brought the price to this level several times today, but the buyers kept buying down here and reversing the price higher.

It seems like Bitcoin has formed a bottom between $10,000 and $11,000. We decided to open a long-term signal in Bitocin. We bought at the bottom of the channel and placed the stop loss (SL) below $9,000. The Bitcoin low so far has been $9,100 according to my cryptocurrency broker, therefore we have to place the SL below there.

Bitcoin is finding support at the lower trend line of the channel

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD

The trend has turned bearish in the last four days
Stochastic is overbought
The 50 SMA is providing resistance

Two moving average are waiting to provide resistance at the top

NZD/USD has been the weakest currency among commodity dollars. It has formed a downtrend, while AUD/USD has remained unchanged. It tumbled about 60 pips this morning, reversed and is back up at the 50 SMA (yellow) which is providing resistance. We decided to open a sell signal in this pair, hoping that the 50 SMA will provide resistance again.

In Conclusion

The market still looks uncertain today. The USD first gained a good amount of pips, but now it has given them all back. The market is waiting for the FED meeting and rate decision tomorrow, so the sentiment is running the show at the moment, and the bond yields.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, November 29 – Uncertainty About the USD

Posted on January 29, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The forex market is quite uncertain today. Some major currencies are advancing against the USD, others are down. In the last few hours, we are sensing some risk off sentiment as JPY and CHF climb higher. Cryptocurrencies are down so far, but the uptrend is still in place.

The USD sellers don’t look so sure today

It’s Good for the Buck When the Market is Uncertain

The US Dollar has been declining throughout last year when it should have gone up, according to the fundamental textbook. Trump wanted the USD lower and the USD has been heading lower since Trump entered office. He has blamed Germany and China, but he’s just as much to blame.

The economic data from the US has been improving, the unemployment rate is pretty low. It’s below 5% which is the natural unemployment rate. We will explain this natural rate when we have a major data release.

Wages are picking up and inflation is headed towards the 2% target that the FED has set. But every bounce in the USD has been met by sellers and the reverses downward have been quite violent.

Today though, the market seems uncertain about the Buck. This is a good thing considering the strong downtrend. The market is weighing the odds of going for or against the USD. Donald Trump did say that a strong Dollar is good for the US, but the market is not believing what he is saying.

Major pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY have reached some major support and resistance levels. EUR/USD reached 1.25 last week, while USD/JPY fell to 108.20s. These are strong levels where the price has reversed in the past and both pairs are having difficulties moving past these areas. So, a reverse might be on the way for the USD.

Cryptocurrencies Decline on Tether News

Tether invited Friedman LLP to Audit its finances, which should have been pretty straightforward. If the company (Tether) can back all the coins it has issued with capital in its bank account, then everything should be fine.

The market capitalization for Tether was above $2 billion a short while ago, although the market cap for cryptos changes constantly as the currency value increases and decreases. Tether must have more than $2 billion in equity and the auditing should be simple.

But, it seems as though Friedman LLP has quit. Tether tried to justify this by saying that Friedman was going too much into detail. Since this is the first time a cryptocurrency is trying to get audited, Tether decided to scrap it.

This looks suspicious and it has been weighing on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is nearly $1,000 lower but it still remains in an uptrend. It is not making any new lows, meaning if the lows are getting higher, the uptrend remains intact.

Ethereum is holding up pretty well. Although, the 50 SMA on the hourly chart is providing support, so this might be the end of the downside for this cryptocurrency today. Litecoin is the heaviest hit among major cryptos as it has lost about 10% of its value so far. I would have liked to go long here on Litecoin, but there’s a bigger support level waiting lower, which is highlighted in the section below.

Trades in Sight

Bullish Litecoin

The bigger trend is still bullish
The previous candlestick closed as a doji
Stochastic is oversold
The 50 SMA is providing support

Setting up for a reversal here?

The big correction in cryptocurrencies seems to be over. They resumed the uptrend last week, although not the crazy uptrend we saw until mid-December. Today, Litecoin is about 10% lower, but at the moment the move lower has stopped and it looks like it is waiting to reverse higher. The stochastic indicator is oversold, which means that the H4 chart is oversold. The doji candlestick is also pointing up. Although, the area at $160 would be a much better place to go long from. We haven’t made our mind up yet, you have to make that decision yourself.

In Conclusion

Today is Monday, so the market hasn’t made up its mind either. The economic data is light apart from the US personal spending and price index so the market sentiment will drive us around today and tomorrow as well until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 25 – Draghi Up Soon While the USD Flails

Posted on January 25, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The fall in the USD continues. The Buck lost considerable ground yesterday after some dovish comments from US officials and it stretched the downside further overnight. We are seeing some sparks of life today, but it seems foolish to be hopeful just yet.

For your amusement, I just heard that some guys broke in at the Ottawa Bitcoin exchange. I suppose they were trying to grab a handful of Bitcoins. Too bad Bitcoin doesn’t exist as hard currency. Regardless, they got caught, so they seem ti have been the smartest burglars around.

Digital currencies are on the slide again

The Buck Is Fighting for Its Life

Yesterday, Mnuchin said that a weak Dollar is great for the US. Of course it is, we all know that. A weak currency is great for exports and for the tourist industry. But, just last year, this administration was blaming others for weakening their currencies.

Remember when Donald Trump kept banging the drums during the presidential campaign, blaming China and Germany for manipulating the Yuan and the Euro? Now, his minions are doing exactly the same thing.

So, the USD has had a really tough period since Trump came to power. Yesterday was another terrible day for the Buck as it lost nearly two cents across the board thanks to Mnuchin.

Today we are seeing USD buyers put up a fight. I can’t say this is a reverse because the USD is only about 50 pips higher in some pairs. AUD/USD is 30 pips lower, but we’re at yesterday’s highs now and it doesn’t seem like it is going to break below. In fact, the chart setup looks pretty bullish. That’s why we opened a short-term buy signal in this pair.

The situation is similar in GBP/USD and EUR/USD. These two forex pairs are finding support at the 20 SMA, just like AUD/USD. Safe haven currencies, on the other hand, are not showing any sign of pulling back. They’re at the highs and look like they’re staying there, that’s why I’m doubtful that this is a real reverse.

The ECB Might Change the Trend for EUR/USD

The European Central Bank will have its monthly meeting shortly. They kept the interest rates unchanged at 0%, as expected. But, interest remains high regarding the statement and particularly Draghi’s press conference.

What will be?

We all know that the Eurozone economy has improved considerably after nearly a decade of recession, stagnation and weak growth. The ECB has to acknowledge the improvement. This is good for the Euro, but not so great for EUR/USD sellers.

On the other hand, the ECB hates the idea of a strong Euro. EUR/USD is now at its best level in the last three years. Will Mario Draghi try to talk the Euro down once again? He is notorious for that, although he might have lost some of his mojo lately.

Draghi must deliver some dovish comments in order to reverse the trend in EUR/USD. Or, at the very least, put some pressure on the buyers, which might stop the uptrend.

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/CAD

The trend is strongly bearish
The 20 SMA is providing resistance
The stochastic indicator is overbought

The retrace seems complete

The downtrend is pretty strong in USD/CAD. Some of it has to do with the recent USD weakness, but most of it is coming from the climb in Oil prices. Today the price has retraced up on the hourly chart and now the 20 SMA is providing resistance. The retrace seems to be complete since stochastic is overbought, so we are going short on this pair.

In Conclusion

Mario Draghi will be up soon, so I better put this forex brief up on the site. We already went short on USD/CAD based on the hourly chart. By the way, Donald Trump has just arrived in Davos, so let’s see what he has to say.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 23 – The Downside in Cryptocurrencies Is Not Over

Posted on January 23, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrencies bumped higher at the end of last week. But the price action on Sunday brought the buyers back to earth as the downside resumed, which is continuing further today. The US Dollar is still trying to make up its mind today, but the fall has stopped for now.

Digital currencies are on the slide again today

What’s Going on in Forex?

EUR/USD is almost unchanged on the day. This pair lost about 50 pips in the morning, but is climbing higher at the moment. So, the USD is not losing anymore ground against the Euro. Judging by the price action in the last two weeks, I can say that a top has been put in place for this pair around the 1.23 region. We will take a better look at this pair in the following updates though.

The GBP on the other hand, is about 50 pips lower against the Buck today. GBP/USD tried to break the big level at 1.40 which we talked about in one of our forex updates this morning. But, this round level rejected the price. Now, we don’t know if this is just an initial rejection before the break or whether it is a reversal. But, this is a good place to open a long term sell forex signal.

Commodity Dollars are also lower against the USD today, apart from the Kiwi. The Aussie took a sudden dive this morning while USD/CAD is 40 pips higher as NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) talks are weighing on the Canadian Dollar. That’s the reason we bought the NZD against the USD.

USD/JPY is in a world of its own today. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept the interest rates unchanged last night. USD/JPY jumped at first, but it failed to break the 100 SMA on the hourly chart. It reversed a few hours ago and it is now near the lows. I suppose, the market was expecting some dovish rhetoric from the BOJ.

Cryptocurrencies Can’t Get Their Act Together

Cryptocurrencies started reversing higher on Wednesday after the second leg of the downtrend which began the week before Christmas. They moved higher in the next few days with Bitocin gaining about $4,000.

But on Sunday, the price started reversing again, this time lower. Having found support at the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart and having formed a few bullish candlesticks, I thought that this was the time that cryptos resumed the epic uptrend.

Sunday’s candlestick killed those hopes though. It formed an engulfing bearish candle, which was bigger than the previous bullish candlestick, including the wick/shadow. Cryptos continued to slide yesterday but the daily candlestick in Bitocin closed above the 100 SMA, which was a ray of hope for buyers.

Today we have moved below that moving average and the price is flirting with the $10,000 level. It moved below this level briefly but it is back above now. This doesn’t look very bullish to me; the 100 SMA has been broken and the $10,000 doesn’t look that scary now.

Actually, looking at the bigger picture, we can see an Elliott Wave chart pattern being formed here. According to this chart pattern, we are now in the fifth wave of a bearish move. The fifth wave is the last one in this pattern.

So, Bitocin should resume the uptrend after this move. The problem is how long is this last move going to last and where will it end. According to the Elliot Wave strategy, this last move should take us below the lows of the third wave. If the price follows the pattern, then the 100 smooth MA (red) is the next target. Although, we still have to close below the $10,000 level today. Otherwise, the sellers might get discouraged and the buyers will jump in.

We will see if Bitcoin will close below the $10,000 today

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/GBP

The trend is strongly bearish
The 0.88 level used to be support
The 50 SMA stands at 0.88
Stochastic is almost overbought

Getting ready to sell at the 50 SMA

Yesterday, this forex pair broke below the long term support level at 0.88. That level should turn into resistance now. The 50 SMA (yellow) is standing up there too, so it should provide resistance as well. Besides that, the stochastic indicator is almost overbought, which means that the retrace up is almost over.

In Conclusion

Again, the economic data is very light this afternoon so we will have to look elsewhere for direction. At least, the US government shutdown will be over. Perhaps, that’s the reason that the USD is not losing anymore ground today.