Forex Signals US Session Brief March 2 – USD Down, Safe Havens Up on Trump’s Trade War Tweets

Posted on March 2, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Donald Trump just doesn’t want to let the US Dollar get itself back on its feet, does he? Just when the Dollar was starting to gain some strength, he goes and declares another trade war. So, tariffs and a weak Dollar, two birds with one stone again. The GBP, on the other hand, is also lagging as we await Prime Minister May to present the Brexit draft.

Ok, that’s enough! Now give me all your money World.

Trump Loves Trade Wars, the Dollar Hates Them

Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. That came after Powell’s testimony earlier which didn’t sound as hawkish as the market was expecting. So, the Dollar received a double whammy and it has been on a slippery slope since yesterday.

Today, Donald Trump tweeted again on the topic. Here is the comment:

“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”

Sounds to me like a teenager in a power trip. A large part of western societies (US & UK) look and sound increasingly like a bunch of teenagers lately but that’s another story.

So, the Buck started falling yesterday and it is continuing to slip lower. EUR/USD has climbed above 1.23 again, so the bearish trend of the last two weeks has ended and it looks like this pair wants to resume the year-long bullish trend.

The rest of the world jumped off their chairs after Trump’s tweets. French, German, Canadian, Chinese etc officials have threatened to fight back, so it is getting real ugly out there. Of course it is weighing on the USD now, but in the long term it might turn out positive for the Buck. Tariffs mean higher import prices and eventually higher consumer prices, thus higher inflation.

Safe Havens Are the Winners

Always when there is trouble in the world, the money flows into safe haven assets, hence their name. So, Gold has seen some strong bids since yesterday. Much like EUR/USD, Gold has been trading on a downtrend in the last two weeks. But the reversal in the last 24 hours might shift the trend to the upside. So, Gold traders be careful because that downtrend might be over.

Safe haven currencies are also among the strongest beneficiaries of market uncertainty, so the CHF and the JPY have been receiving some strong bids during this time. That reversed EUR/CHF which went pretty well for our sell forex signal in this pair.

USD/JPY has also been declining pretty fast and it just broke the lows from two weeks ago. So, we’re finally below the big support level at 105.50. This looks pretty bearish for USD/JPY.

Although, the support zone stretches until 105, so the bulls still have some hope. This looks like a great place to go long from, to be honest. The risk/reward ratio is great, but the situation has suddenly become toxic. The financial markets are in fear and fear is great for safe havens. So, we’re not going long on this pair just yet. The fear is acceptable and tradable, but the panic which might set in at any time will mess the markets and the charts.

Trades in Sight

Bullish USD/CAD

The trend is bullish
Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports

The 20 SMA (grey) is the first place I would look to buy

USD/CAD has been on a bullish trend since the beginning of February and the trend has become stronger. The Canadian GDP report that was just published showed a decline, from 0.4% last month to just 0.1% this month, so that is weighing on the CAD as well. But the main concern for CAD traders are the tariffs that the US will (will it?) impose on Canadian exports. So, all dips are great buying opportunities in this pair at the moment.

In Conclusion

Many things going on right now in the forex market. Theresa May is holding a speech about what the UK intends the Brexit process will go, so the GBP and the Euro are taking notice. The trade war is coming and the volatility has increased considerably. Today is a tough day to trade.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 1 – We’re Holding on to Our AUD/USD Signal As the USD Gains Momentum

Posted on March 1, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar has begun to reverse after a year of trending down. We opened two live long term sell forex signals, one of them in AUD/USD. We are more than 200 pips in profit with this signal, but we have decided to let it run further. We will explain why below. Cryptocurrencies continue to trade normally as the volatility has decreased, but the bias is still bullish for them.

We’re Refusing 200 pips in AUD/USD

We opened a forex signal in AUD/USD early this month. We decided to go short on this pair after it had climbed nearly 500 pips higher in the previous two months. The 100 SMA was standing up there on the weekly chart and it was providing some sort of resistance.

Last year, the price moved above this moving average twice and climbed above 0.80. Eventually it reversed lower and headed down again.

So, we should have waited for this pair to have another attempt higher to 0.81, like it did. The trend in December and January was very strong as the USD was falling through an air pocket, so AUD/USD moved above 0.81 again.

We held on to that signal and eventually the price reversed back below the 100 SMA. The first downward wave came early this month as this pair lost 400 pips. There was a pullback higher, but the downside resumed again and it has been picking up pace in the last few days.

The price has moved below the 50 SMA today so the sellers remain in control. That is one more obstacle that the sellers overcame. The next target is at 0.76 where we can find the 100 SMA. So, we are deciding to let this forex signal run further, even though we are more than 200 pips in profit at the moment.

Cryptocurrencies Remain Bullish

Last week, cryptocurrencies were retracing lower after trending higher in the previous two weeks and doubling their value. But the retrace lower came to an end on Monday and the crypto market started grinding higher again.

Bitcoin climbed from around $9,000 to $11,000 in two day, but another retrace lower followed yesterday. Altcoins kept sliding all day yesterday. If you have notice, cryptocurrencies are pretty trendy and the trend goes on for a certain period.

If you see the daily Bitcoin chart, this digital currency moved higher exactly for two weeks after the big pullback lower in January. Then, the retrace that took place last week last for a week exactly, Monday to Monday.

This week, we have seen Bitcoin climb higher for two days and then retrace again lower for a full day, yesterday. Today the uptrend is on again. So, cryptos are following a pattern it seems. They remain bullish for a period of time, then they turn bearish for another period.

The problem for cryptocurrency traders is to define how long a period is. The trend used to go on for weeks at first, now it is shifting within days. Although, they still remain bullish. Bitcoin has moved above the 20 SMA (grey) on the weekly chart today. This moving average used to provide support last year, but it has now turned into resistance. I think that the buyers will become more confident if the weekly candlestick closes above this moving average.

The 20 SMA is finally letting go

Trades in Sight

Bearish AUD/USD

Yesterday the bearish trend has picked up pace in the afternoon
The pullback higher is almost complete
Stochastic is becoming overbought
The 20 SMA is catching up

Getting ready to sell this pair

We sold NZD/USD a while ago, but I’m thinking of opening another sell forex signal in AUD/USD. The downtrend sped up yesterday but a retrace is happening at the moment. This retrace seems nearly over now since stochastic is almost overbought. Besides, the 20 SMA is catching up with the price and it will likely provide resistance.

In Conclusion

The forex market has been pretty quiet today so far, with a slight demand for the USD. The FED Chairman Powell is due to testify in about an hour, so I suppose the market is expecting him, that’s why it’s been quiet today. Let’s see how bullish he will sound today.

Forex Signals US Session Brief February 28 – The Dollar Decline Might Be Over Now

Posted on February 28, 2018February 28, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The USD buyers are suddenly feeling energetic today

The US Dollar received some strong bids yesterday, pushing forex major pairs to some important levels, such as the 1.22 level in EUR/USD. Now, it seems like the tide is finally turning for the USD. Perhaps, the market was just waiting for the new FED Chair Powell to take power. Cryptocurrencies continue the uptrend of the last two days, although it has slowed down today.

The Downtrend Might Be Ending for the Dollar

We all have seen the US Dollar in awe as it fell throughout last year. The selling spilled into this year also, so the Buck has been on a strong bearish trend for more than a year. I didn’t like the way the USD has been declining during this time, to be honest. It was too violent and the support levels didn’t do a good job at all as they got broken one after the other.

The economic fundamental factors were mostly in favour of the US Dollar as well during this period. But Donald Trump wanted the Dollar lower and that’s all the forex traders needed to hear. So, it’s been a one way street for the Buck for more than a year.

Although, as we mentioned, the tide might be changing for the USD. USD/JPY reached the big support level at 105.50 where it stopped. It looks now like the pressure is shifting to the upside because the buyers are jumping in higher. Two weeks ago, the sellers stopped at 105.50 level; this week, the sellers gave up 100 pips higher at 106.50.

GBP/USD is also having trouble above 1.40, while AUD/USD is having trouble staying above 0.80. We have covered the long term charts in EUR/USD and have highlighted a few times the 1.25 level. This seemed like the make-or-break level for this forex pair. If EUR/USD broke above it, that would have opened the door to the next range for this pair, which stretches from 1.25 to 1.40.

So, the next targets would be 1.30, 1.35 and ultimately 1.40. But, the new FESD Chairman is on the job and he sounded hawkish yesterday. The market had been waiting for him and the first sign yesterday was bullish for the USD.

Is this the beginning of the reverse we were all waiting? The signs say it is, but we still have to wait a few more weeks o see how it all evolves from here.

Cryptocurrencies Are Taking Some Rest

In the last 2-3 days, cryptocurrencies have been trading on an uptrend. The big correction down ended earlier this month and the larger uptrend resumed again. But last week, we saw another correction lower in the crypto market.

On Sunday, the second correction ended and the uptrend resumed again. Today though, the uptrend of the last few days doesn’t look so strong.

Bitcoin did push higher this morning. It reached the $11,000 level which is above the 20 SMA on the weekly chart that we highlighted yesterday. This moving average is the indicator that defines whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish. The crypto market follows Bitcoin usually, so this moving average is a defining indicator for the whole market. At the moment Bitcoin is trading below it, which means that the uptrend is not in full swing yet.

As you can see from the H1 chart below, the 20 SMA (grey) has pushed Bitcoin higher in the last two days. But today, that moving average got broken and now the sellers are pushing below the 50 SMA (yellow) too. If the uptrend is to continue, the moving averages must hold.

The 20 SMA is broken and the 50 SMA is under pressure too

Trades in Sight

Bearish AUD/USD

The bearish trend has picked up pace
The stochastic indicator is severely overbought
The pullback higher seems complete

The bearish trend is pretty evident here

We went short on this forex pair a while ago. The trend is pretty bearish, especially after gaining pace yesterday after Powell’s statement. At the moment, AUD/USD is retracing higher but the retrace seems to be over since the buyers are having trouble pushing higher now. So, we opened a sell forex signal here based on this price action.

In Conclusion

The US Dollar is enjoying some good times for a change. But that might change again soon. The US GDP report is about to be released shortly and that might turn the market sour again for the Buck. It might also add more strength to the USD if the numbers are positive. That would be really great for the Buck, so we will watch the report closely.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 26 – USD Is Having Another Rough Day

Posted on February 27, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar is having a tough time today, again. There is no good reason behind this move today, so it looks like the market is still short on the Buck. Cryptocurrencies had a bearish week last week. They will remain bearish until Bitcoin breaks above the 20 SMA on the weekly chart. Let’s see how the charts look today.

The Dollar is feeling bearish

USD Can’t Find Solid Ground

It seemed like the US Dollar was turning around last week after a horrible week the week before. It made a bullish turnaround on Friday of the previous week and it continued to grind higher throughout last week.

That came after failing to hold on above the big level at 1.25. That was a sign that sellers were getting active around the 1.25 level. Because the Buck kept pushing higher last week it looked like the trend could actually change.

But today we are seeing another reversal, this time to the downside. Though the US Dollar opened with a gap higher last night, it quickly reversed and it has been sliding lower all day.

USD/JPY reversed from above 107 and is trading now around 106.50s. EUR/USD has climbed about 70 pips. EUR/USD ran into the 100 SMA on the H4 chart and is having difficulty breaking above it. We will cover this pair in the trades section below.

Commodity currencies are also finding some decent bids. They have been taking advantage of the Buck today. We already went long on USD/CAD after the retrace lower. We are also thinking of shorting AUD/USD since this pair was one of the weakest last week.

Bitcoin remains Bearish Until It Breaks the 20 SMA

Cryptocurrencies ended its sharp decline about three weeks ago. They went through a rough time in January but those times are over. They made quite a reversal this month and the technical picture looks a lot better for cryptocurrency buyers now.

But, the buyers are not fully in control either. They have been reluctant to push too far above the $10,000 level and hold above it. Last week we saw the sellers push back below that big round level and Bitcoin is trading below it as we speak.

As you can see from the weekly Bitcoin chart, last week closed pretty bearish but not bearish enough, since the weekly candlestick is engulfed by the previous bullish one. The inability to hold above the $10,000 level is another bearish sign.

Although, the major bearish signal closed below the 20 SMA on the weekly chart. Buyers have pushed above it twice in the last two weeks, but they were unable to keep the price up there.

This moving average provided support for Bitcoin throughout last year so it is an important indicator. It provided support again in January this year but was eventually broken. Now, it has turned into resistance, so the trend is not bullish until that moving average is broken.

The 20 SMA is now providing resistance

Trades in Sight

Bullish EUR/USD

The mid-term trend is still bearish
The retrace up is complete
The 100 SMA is providing resistance
The H4 chart is overbought

The other moving averages are catching up with the 50 (yellow) and 200 (purple) SMAs

We haven’t gone short on EUR/USD but we are thinking about it. The mid-term trend, which started last week, is still bearish while the move upward over the last two trading days is just a retrace before the next move lower. The stochastic indicator is overbought on this timeframe chart so it seems like the downtrend is resuming at the moment.

In Conclusion

Today the economic calendar is pretty light. Market sentiment is what forex traders are trading now. Our forex signal in USD/CAD is going pretty well as it approaches the take profit target. We are trying to get short on EUR/USD and AUD/USD, but will try to pick a better entry price.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 20 – GBP Jumps as the UK Gets Thrown a Lifeline

Posted on February 20, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

We heard some surprising rumors about Brexit from the EU. This brought the market some relief for a couple of hours, sending the GBP about 70 pips higher. Cryptocurrencies continue to grind higher today again, so the uptrend is well in place.

Theresa May has half a reason to be happy today

A Suprise Lifeline for May?

To give a little insight, UK Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May was in the remain camp pre Brexit. This means that she was anti-Brexit until the referendum. When the Brexit vote won, she changed camps and became a Prime Minister with a hard Brexit plan.

That was surprising, the 180-degree shift. She has pushed for a hard Brexit from the first day she sat on the PM chair. It looks stupid but that’s what this whole Brexit thing is.

However, she was in Berlin during the weekend where she pushed for closer military and security cooperation. That felt a bit less hostile to what we have seen and heard out of the UK lately. Some also interpreted it as an attempt for a soft Brexit.

The GBP didn’t take much notice of that when the markets opened on Monday morning. But it took notice today. There were rumors earlier that the EU Parliament might grant the UK “privileged” access to the single market.

That sounds like the EU has given up, seeing as this would mean giving the UK all EU benefits while getting nothing in return. Perhaps the British government has finally come to terms that a hard Brexit is well, hard. So, both sides are making their first steps towards each other. That’s not for certain yet, but the GBP is about 50 pips better off now.

Litecoin Leads the Climb in Cryptocurrencies Again

Litecoin has been one of the best performers in the cryptocurrency market over the last week or so. It jumped about $60 higher exactly a week ago and this morning it made another jump higher. The fall in the crypto market has stopped and altcoins are trying to form an uptrend.

Bitcoin has gained more than $5,000 in the last two weeks. This means that Bitcoin has nearly doubled in value during this time since it was trading at $6,000 two weeks ago.

Ripple and Ethereum are little changed today though. But as I mentioned above, Litecoin is on fire, again. Litecoin is introducing new features such as litecoin debit card or the multi-asset wallet. These recent developments have helped Litecoin take off.

There’s more good news for cryptocurrencies. The EU is not banning Bitcoin, which means it’s not banning cryptocurrencies altogether. That event happened last week, giving a reason for the recent altcoin uptrend. Litecoin is benefiting the most, but now it’s a bit too late to get in on the long side of Litecoin. So, we’re waiting for a retracement lower.

Litecoin is far from December highs, but it is getting there

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/JPY

The trend has changed
Risk sentiment is on
The 20 SMA (grey) is providing support

The 20 SMA is a good place to buy

It seems like the sentiment has changed in the financial markets. Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, CHF, and the Yen are losing ground fast. USD/JPY has reversed the downtrend and it has been climbing. The 20 SMA has kept the uptrend in place. I’m waiting for a retrace lower to that moving average in order to open a buy signal.

In Conclusion

The US is off today so the data is light. The forex market has been pretty quiet so far and it is expected to get even quieter as London draws to a close. Therefore, we will only be looking for small trades today and not marry our positions.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 19 –Cryptocurrencies Have Reversed, the USD Is Trying to Do the Same

Posted on February 19, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrency traders feel safer now

The cryptocurrencies are definitely on an uptrend now. After a two month downtrend which scared off the latecomers, altcoins have been only climbing in the last two weeks, so the downtrend is over and the uptrend has resumed, thank God. The USD is trying to imitate cryptocurrencies, but I don’t know if it will succeed.

The Uptrend Is in Place When the Lows Are Getting Higher

We can now say without hesitation that the trend has finally changed for cryptocurrencies. The lows are getting higher and the highs are getting higher too; that’s the price action we see on an uptrend accordforex signalsing to forex textbooks.

It’s true that we’re far from the highs in late December, but those were strange times. Cryptocurrencies surged in December during that gold rush for altcoins, doubling or tripling in value in a couple of weeks.

So, it will take some time until we see those elevated levels that we saw back in December. Now, the price action in cryptos has become more like normal forex trading. The moves are still large and the spreads are still too wide compared to the forex market, although they’re smaller than in the last two months.

Just like in forex, cryptos have formed an uptrend in the last two weeks. There have been pullbacks lower, but during these pullbacks we have seen buyers jumping in at previous support levels or at moving averages.

So, the trend is up and we are long on Bitcoin already. Bitcoin has broken above the $10,000 level as we explained on Friday. As you can see on the H1 chart above, that level turned into support as Bitcoin retraced down there yesterday and jumped off of it. Today, the support has been provided by the 100 SMA (green). So, the fear has worn off in the crypto market and now they are all crawling higher on an uptrend.

The $10,000 level has turned into support now

The USD Is Trying to Reverse the Trend Too

The US Dollar is also trying to form a reversal as well. It has been beaten up pretty badly for more than a year without good reason. I mean without a good fundamental or technical reason I mean. Technically, a decent retrace for a few months would have made sense for the Buck early in 2017, before the uptrend resumed.

Fundamentally, the Buck should be in the best place possible now. But, another fundamental aspect has kicked in early last year and that was politics. Trump wanted a weak Dollar, so the market is giving him a weak Dollar.

On Friday, the Buck made some new lows; USD/JPY broke below 105 while EUR/USD broke January highs and reached 1.2550s. Although, we saw a swift turnaround on Friday afternoon. USD/JPY bounced off the major support area at 105.00-105.50 and climbed above 106 again, while EUR/USD lost about 150 pips.

That could have been a position squaring from the buyers before the weekend, but it could also be a trend reversal. I know I have been calling for a trend reversal for the USD for quite some time, but this price action actually looks like a reversal.

How Do We Interpret the Price Action?

If we interpret it, EUR/USD buyers basically tried the upside one last time and now they have given up after shaking a few week stops above 1.25. The same goes for USD/JPY, sellers reached their target at the major support (105-105.50) and now we are seeing a reversal higher. Could this be the trend reversal we are waiting for? Time will tell.

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/JPY

The trend is still bearish
The H1 chart is oversold and heading lower
The 100 SMA (green) is providing resistance

The retrace higher is complete

As we mentioned above, USD/JPY is reversing higher from the support area. But, the larger trend is still bearish. I don’t think the sellers will let go that easily, so we decided to take a small trade up here. We went short on this pair below the 100 SMA and are in profit now. Perhaps, if the sellers fail at the support area again, we will think about opening a long term buy signal.

In Conclusion

The economic data today is light, apart from a speech from the BOE chairman Carney. We will watch that speech closely since we have a long term sell signal in GBP/USD. The USD is trying to reverse the downtrend, but as I said, time will tell. In the meantime, I will be listening to some music from Enya “Only Time”.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 16 – Bitcoin Is Trying to Break the $10,000 Level Today

Posted on February 16, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The uptrend is clear for cryptocurrencies

The forex market has been quiet all morning, but it is starting to make a move now as the US Dollar bulls try to fight for their life. Cryptocurrencies continue to grind higher still, with Bitcoin breaking the $10,000 level briefly. Although, it has dived back below now, so the break isn’t valid yet.

The USD Is Trying to Fight for Its Life

The US Dollar has gone through a rough path during this week. It started the month the back foot, but it reversed as the new month got underway. It looked like the USD was starting to reverse the big bearish trend that we saw last year.

But that wasn’t the case. The reverse ended and the USD reversed again lower after a great round of inflation, which was pretty strange. But it shows that the market is heavy short on the USD, so any jump is short lived. Forex traders are scared to stay long on the USD for too long.

This morning we saw another push lower from the sellers. USD/JPY broke below the 106 level and reached 105.50s where it reversed. That area stretching from 105.00 to 105.50 is a major support zone, so it won’t be easy for sellers to take it out. EUR/USD broke above 1.25 and moved above January’s highs.

So, the price action of the last several days has been as bearish as it could get. The USD has turned bearish after some great data which is bearish in itself. It has made new lows too, but in the last few hours we are witnessing some demand for the Buck.

EUR/USD has pushed back below 1.25 while USD/JPY has broken above 106. This is a ray of light in such dark skies for the USD. Although, we decided to go against this move, so we’re going with the long term trend. We sold USD/JPY at the 20 SMA on the hourly chart, which we explained in the previous market update.

Bitcoin Is Trying to Break the $10,000 Level

The uptrend in cryptocurrencies continues today as well. Finally, the major retrace of the big uptrend seems to be over, so the buyers are back in control. Although, we won’t see the madness that we saw during the “Gold Rush” for cryptos towards the end of last year.

The price action has become sort of normal in the cryptocurrency market. The trend now looks more like a normal trend in the forex market, rather than a massive surge. I think the altcoin market is coming to terms with trading. So, I don’t expect to see such huge moves, the likes of which we saw in the last several months.

Although, there will be the occasional spike when there is some real fundamental event. Litecoin has made a decent jump this week, which was supported by new features that Litecoin is introducing.

Bitcoin pierced above the $10,000 level last night, but it has pulled back lower this morning. So, we can’t say that this level has been broken until the price moves considerably above it and closes there.

On the way down in January, this level was pierced several times, but the price returned above it every time. That game continued for about three weeks, until that level was finally broken, so it might take that long to break back above it now.

Although, the buying pressure remains strong. The price retraced lower this morning, but it stalled at the 50 SMA on the H1 chart. It formed a hammer which is a reversing signal and it is now reversing higher. So, we might as well see the $10,000 level go today, we’ll see. We remain long on Bitcoin though, with a long term buy signal which we opened back in December.

Looks like we will see another attempt at the topside soon

Trades in Sight

BULLish EUR/USD

The trend is bullish
The uptrend has gained pace since Wednesday
The H1 chart is oversold
The 50 SMA is supposed to provide support

The retrace lower is complete

EUR/USD made new highs today, so the trend is bullish and it is strong. At the moment this forex pair is retracing lower, but it looks like the retrace is over. The 50 SMA (yellow) is providing support and the stochastic indicator is oversold, so we might see a jump from here. Who wants to go long now?

In Conclusion

The USD has made new lows today, which seems bearish at first. But, the big reversals come after new lows have been made, so if you’re short USD, don’t push your luck too much, the Buck has fallen too low for too long. Today’s US building data might give the USD bulls funny ideas, so trade with caution.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 15 – USD Continues the Downtrend, Cryptocurrencies Extend the Uptrend

Posted on February 15, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar made a sudden turnaround yesterday which must have caught many forex traders on the wrong foot. It ruined our history table full of winning forex signals but we’re back on our feet. Cryptocurrencies are enjoying some strong bids again today, as Bitcoin approaches the $10,000 level.

Trump is still tormenting the US Dollar

What the hell happened to the US Dollar?

Yesterday, the US inflation report came out really positive. The core CPI (consumer price index) number came at 0.3% for the month, a tick above expectations, while the headline inflation number came at 0.5% from 0.1% the previous month. The yearly numbers picked up as well, with the main inflation number at 2.1%. That’s above the FED’s target which remains at 2%.

That sent the US Dollar surging around 70-80 pips higher in no time, as it should. Inflation, which has been one of the two weak spots of the US economy, together with wages, is picking up. This should make the FED more hawkish in raising interest rates.

We already have a rate hike in schedule for the next meeting in March. This was decided before yesterday’s inflation report, so now, rate hike odds for this year should have moved higher, meaning that we should see more hikes from the FED.

But, the market doesn’t agree. The USD made a sudden turnaround and today it sits near the lows. EUR/USD broke above 1.25 again, while USD/JPY tried to have a go at the 106 level. So, it is looking totally gloomy for the US Dollar.

The market is not convinced yet that the Dollar can reverse. Trump remains a hawk for the Buck and the FED seems scared of him. Although, yesterday’s inflation figures should have kept the bids coming for the USD. But they didn’t and it is not good for the Buck.

It Seems Like Cryptocurrencies Are Back on the Long term Uptrend

The rough times seem to have ended for cryptocurrencies. They have been climbing higher for about two weeks, so the selling is over. All the period from late December until early February was a tough time for crypto traders. The volatility was enormous and nothing seemed to stop the selling.

But now, the downtrend is over and altcoins are climbing higher, taking out level after level on the way up. In the last two days, the uptrend has picked up pace Ethereum is targeting the $1,000 level, while Ripple coin has broken above $1 and it is staying there.

So, the buyers are becoming more confident as cryptocurrencies move higher. Well, the steep decline of the last two months scared the hell out of crypto traders, but on the other hand, no one wants to miss the party.

In fact, Litecoin started the surge of the last two days. Litecoin is introducing debit cards and a new and quick payment method for businesses, so the interest for Litecoin has increased recently. This cryptocurrency has surged from $150 to $237 in the last few trading sessions. That has pulled the rest of the market up with it, so it all looks good for cryptos now, the dark times are behind us.

Litecoin is retracing before the next move higher

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/CHF

The bigger trend is still bearish
The retrace up is over
The reverse is happening already

It seems like the downtrend is resuming

We opened a sell forex signal in EUR/CHF a while ago. We tried the same yesterday, but the horrible reverse in USD screwed the forex market and this pair popped higher. So, we decided to give it another try today and this trade looks pretty good now. The retrace up is over on the H4 chart since stochastic is overbought. We are just a few pips above the take profit target, so this was a good decision.

In Conclusion

The forex market was calming down, which was easier to trade. But, the USD reverse yesterday ruined everything and every chart setup. The forex market has turned into a lunatic again, so we will pick our trades carefully today. I’m looking at commodity currencies for a trade or two, but will post the plan on the next forex updates.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, February 14 – Litecoin Can’t Wait for the US CPI and Retail Sales

Posted on February 14, 2018February 14, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Litecoin is surely on fire today

It seems as the forex market is waiting for the US economic data to be published because it is not taking sides today. That’s if we leave out Yen pairs, but the JPY is in a world of its own. Cryptocurrencies are also asleep, apart from Litecoin, which has surged higher today and it is now threatening the $200 level.

US Inflation and Retail Sales on the Schedule

Forex traders seem to be on the sidelines today. They are not taking any sides. The US Dollar has been trading on a slight downtrend in the last few days. In fact, this might be considered as a retrace of the USD uptrend that started at the beginning of this month.

That uptrend might be considered as a retrace of the bigger downtrend which started in January 2017. So, every trend is part of a bigger trend in forex, that’s how it works.

But this morning, the USD is claiming back some of the loss, albeit very slowly. The US consumer inflation report CPI (consumer price index) and the retail sales report are about to be released shortly. Core inflation jumped higher to 0.3% last month from 0.1% expected and core retail sales beat expectations as well. So, the market is cautious not to be caught on the wrong side.

There has been some activity in NZD/USD and in USD/JPY overnight but that is not related to the current market sentiment. The Kiwi jumped 60 pips higher last night as the inflation ticked a decimal point higher in New Zealand. That pulled the Aussie higher as well, but to a lesser degree.

USD/JPY is in its own world at the moment. The JPY has been gaining for several weeks now. It has sent USD/JPY tumbling and breaking all support levels. Yesterday it broke below 108, while last night it broke the last line in the sand at 107.30. We opened a forex signal in this pair which we will explain below.

Finally, There’s Life in Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies have been trading in a tight range in the last several weeks. They became extremely volatile at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year. But, they finally relaxed and the price action has been normal during these last few weeks.

At the moment I see some action in the crypto market as Bitcoin pushes above the $9,100 level and above the 100 SMA on the H4 chart. Ripple is making a move as well, as it breaks above the $1 level.

Although, Liecoin is the top performer today. It has surged from below $160 to above $200 in just one trading session. You wait for weeks for a trade, then bam, it is over before you know it.

Litecoin is releasing LitePay which is similar to Bitpay. Apparently, Litecoin had asked BitPay to accept Litecoin but they didn’t. So, Litecoin decided to launch Litepay which allows businesses to accept and transfer Litecoin and convert them to normal currencies.

Litecoin is also launching debit cards which will enable Litecoin holders to convert them to cash in ATM machines. These debit cards will be compatible with Visa. LitePay will be introduced on February 26^th and if this goes as they say, this will be a breakthrough for the crypto market.

This is the reason behind the surge in Litecoin today. Too bad we closed our long forex signal here at around $160 from what I can recall.

Litecoin just broke above $200

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/JPY

The trend is extremely bearish
The retrace up is over
The 20 SMA is providing resistance
Bearish candlesticks

The retrace up is over

We opened a sell forex signal in USD/JY earlier today. We said yesterday that we would switch to short on this pair after it broke below 108. But we were waiting for a retrace up which took place overnight. Now, the retrace is over since the stochastic indicator is overbought and the price reached the 20 SMA, which is providing resistance. Now the price is turning lower and we are well in profit.

In Conclusion

The US data is about to be released shortly, so I better wrap this midday brief here and focus on that. This will be important for the short-term future of the US Dollar. Perhaps it will set the trend for a few days, so let’s watch the US CPI and retail sales.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, January 13 – BOJ Concerned As JPY Advances Further

Posted on February 13, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Kuroda thinking about hara-kiri as the JPY strength continues

The Japanese Yen is making additional gains today. USD/JPY has broken the major support level at 108 and that has made the folks at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) pretty nervous. Some of this bearish move in USD/JPY is coming from the USD side which is feeling pretty week today. The other markets today have been surprisingly quiet, unlike yesterday.

Yen Strength Is Raising Eyebrows at the BOJ

One of the main highlights in the financial markets today is the strength of the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY has been playing with the major support are which stretches from 108 to 109. This pair has jumped higher every time it slipped to this area.

But, in the last few days, the attempts were getting pretty often, so I felt that this level was going to go sooner or later. The high were getting lower too, which was another bearish signal.

Today, that level finally got broken to the downside and we are trading around the 10750 region at the moment. There is one last line in the sand though, which might offer some hope for USD/JPY buyers. That level comes at 107.30 and it was the low back in September last year.

Although, I wouldn’t count too much on that level. We might open a small buy signal hoping for a bounce, but we won’t play the reverse right now.

This is not a run for safe havens. Gold is higher but that’s on the back of some renewed USD weakness. EUR/CHF is little changed this morning while commodity Dollars are feeling quite upbeat. So, it’s not demand for safe haven assets which has sent USD/JPY lower.

That has the BOJ worried. Everyone wants a weak currency nowadays, especially the BOJ. The Japanese economy is lagging major developed economies and inflation in Japan still remains pretty weak, so a strong Yen is the last thing those poor guys want.

The currency Chief in Japan who also is the Deputy Finance Minister popped up a while ago and said that “they are watching closely whether the recent JPY appreciation is a speculative move”. Duh, what else could it be, we are not seeing an economic boom in Japan all of a sudden.
Whatever his words, the market is not taking notice. We have a trade plan for USD/JPY which we will explain below.

More Inflation in the UK, Higher Prices to Pay at the Local Store

Inflation doesn’t seem cool off in the UK. The headline number lost a decimal point last month while core inflation lost two decimal points. The BOE welcomed the slight decline, but this month we’re back at the highs again.

The yearly inflation number was expected at 2.9% but it came at 3.0% while the core inflation number jumped higher to 2.7%, from 2.5%.

The GBP found some nice bids after the report was released, with GBP/USD gaining nearly 100 pips on the day. Although, the climb has stalled now as the USD decline has paused. So again, half of this move came from the USD side, which is 50 pips lower against the Euro as well.

I haven’t heard anything from the Bank of England (BOE) after the report, but I suppose they’re confused. Chairman Carney delivered some hawkish comments, but MPC member Haldane commented that there’s no rush to hike interest rates. That was confirmed by the BOE 0-9-0 vote to keep interest rates unchanged. The Pound is uncertain at the moment after the initial jump.

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/JPY

The is bearish
The big support level has been broken
Support usually turns into resistance

We wanted to buy at 108, now we are looking to sell at that level

So, the 108 support level was finally broken today. Now, the picture has turned even more bearish for USD/JPY. We could try a buy signal from 107.30, but the safest bet is going with the trend. The best trade would be to sell at 108.00 if the price pulls back up there. There’s the other level at 108.50, but it is a bit too far for now, so I’m looking at the 108 level for a sell signal.

In Conclusion

The GBP enjoyed a nice run higher today, but the climb has stalled. GBP/USD is at some elevated levels now, so the buyers are reluctant, despite the positive inflation report. We have a long term sell signal here, so we hope the sellers return and the price heads back down.