Category: US/Midday Session Brief

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 27 – New Trades Appear as the USD Makes A Comeback

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday the US Dollar got hit pretty hard for no apparent reason. The market just wanted to sell the Buck and the USD suffered some heavy losses. Today we are seeing the opposite of the price action that we saw yesterday. The USD is claiming back yesterday’s losses and it is presenting us with some nice trading opportunities. We have had some tough time with forex signals today, so hopefully, this move will get us back to track.

 

All of a sudden, everybody loves the USD again

The USD Reverses Yesterday’s Tumble

Yesterday the US Dollar looked like it was going to end up down the sink as it was going down pretty fast. Our long term sell forex signal in GBP/USD was looking increasingly in danger as the price in this pair was approaching the stop loss target.

But the market reversed today and it has been a swift reversal. I wasn’t expecting such a reversal today to be honest. The US GDP report is due to be released tomorrow, so I thought that maybe forex traders would wait for that report to be released before taking sides.

But, the USD has gained around 60 pips against the Euro this morning and more than 120 pips against the GBP. The rest of the globe is siding with the UK on the UK-Russia conflict as they expel Russian diplomats from their countries. So, you’d think that this might benefit the GBP, but the GBP is losing ground fast, which is good for us.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.24 at the moment and the 50 SMA is standing just there, so there is a possibility that we see a bounce from here. I’m hoping for a bounce. If it happens and this forex pair fails to make new highs above 1.2470s, then that would be the sign I am waiting to go short on this pair. I will try to open another long term sell signal after manually closing the previous one last week.

So far, it has been a wild week, volatile and unexpected. One day, forex majors climb 100-150 pips higher for no reason, the next day, they make a head dive. This sort of market is difficult to trade because just when you think a trend has been established, everything reverses and you get caught on the wrong side.

 

 

The 100 SMA Has Turned Into Resistance for Bitcoin Now

The downtrend is cryptocurrencies continues today as well. Yesterday we highlighted the 100 SMA on the Litecoin daily chart. This moving average has been providing support for a long time in this timeframe chart. The price pierced it yesterday but eventually Litecoin closed above it.

So I thought that perhaps this moving average would hold once more. But today the price has moved considerably below it. There is a chance that Litecon reverses back up and closes the day above it, although we have to wait until the end of the day.

The same moving average on the same timeframe chart has turned into resistance for Bitcoin now. As you can see from the Bitcoin chart, the price moved back below the 100 SMA (red) earlier this month. The buyers tried to reverse the trend last week, but the 100 SMA provided solid resistance.

Eventually, the price turned lower and Bitcoin has been trading on a bearish trend since then. The rest of the crypto market follows Bitcoin, so most of major cryptocurrencies are still bearish. Although, today’s candlestick in Bitcoin doesn’t look so bearish. In fact, if Bitcoin closes the day $200 higher which is not much, then a pin would form. The pin is a reversing signal as you cans see from the Bitcoin chart below, so that would be a bullish sign. But, let’s see how the day closes first.

 

 

The 100 SMA in Bitcoin is doing the opposite job it has been doing for Litecoin

 

Trades in Sight

Short NZD/USD

 

  1. The trend has been bullish in the last several days
  2. The retrace down seem complete on the H! chart
  3. The 50 SMA (yellow) is providing support

 

We already went long at the 50 SMA

The trend of the last several days has been bullish and today NZD/USD has retraced lower. The stochastic indicator is oversold and the 50 SMA is providing support. So, it seems as the retrace down is now complete. There are some more moving averages about 10 pips lower on the H4 chart if the sellers have funny ideas, so we have more protection lower.

 

In Conclusion

The economic data this week is very light, but the forex market has been quite active so far. The market sentiment has been doing all the talking this week and the sentiment has shifted pretty quickly. This sort of price action makes trading dangerous, so we are trying our best out there.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 26 – The Downtrend Continues for the USD and Cryptocurrencies

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The USD doesn’t seem to be able to catch a break. It looks like the market wants to push it up but negative fundamental events keep popping up and the USD keeps taking hits. The situation is similar for cryptocurrencies. They have formed bullish chart setups recently, but eventually they end up trending downwards.

 

At least we know what the market wants: safe havens

 

The USD Tumble Continues

 

The US Dollar has been trying to reverse the downtrend of the last year. In the last two months, buyers have gained confidence while sellers have lost some confidence. Last year, sellers would jump in after every small retrace and take the Buck a few cents lower. Now, buyers are not exactly in control but neither are sellers. Sellers have not been able to push price to new lows.

The situation is upside down in EUR/USD. This forex pair has made quite a climb from January last year until January this year. But in the last two months, buyers haven’t been able to make new highs. In the past two weeks, EUR/USD has formed two upside down pin candlesticks.

The upside down pins point down, but price did not respect the technical setup last week. Last week’s candlestick was supposed to be bearish, but eventually, it turned into a bullish candlestick. Fundamentals seem to be more important than technicals now, so they are ruining every chart setup in major pairs.

The picture is very blurry for the USD and as a result, it is blurry for most forex majors. The commodity Dollars pushed higher against the Buck as well, although we saw that as an opportunity to open a sell forex signal, which we will explain below.

EUR/USD still looks very uncertain on the weekly chart

 

Litecoin back at the 100 SMA as Cryptocurrencies Continue the Downtrend after the Weekend

 

Just like EUR/USD, Cryptocurrencies have been sliding down in the last few months after the epic uptrend last year. Sometimes, it looks like they want to reverse back up, but the attempts to make the reverse and resume the uptrend have ended up being nothing more than just attempts.

Last Sunday, Litecoin reached the 100 SMA (red) on the daily chart. It formed a big doji at that moving average as you can see and started reversing up. The doji is a strong reversal signal especially when a financial instrument is oversold or overbought and the stochastic indicator was severely oversold back then.

The reverse started taking form in the next few days, but once stochastic got close to the overbought area, the downtrend resumed. Price formed another doji at the top and the reverse down continued.

The stochastic is now heading down whilst Litecoin is back at the 100 SMA. This moving average has been the line in the sand for Litecoin; it has provided support and kept the larger uptrend going for about two years. Although, it seems like this time it might be broken. The downside has picked up pace today and stochastic is half way down; so there’s plenty of room until it becomes oversold.

Will it be broken today? We will see as the day progresses. If it gets broken, that will be a big bearish sign which will ring the alarm for buyers.

 

The 100 SMA is the deciding level for Litecoin

 

Trades in Sight

Short AUD/USD

 

  1. The major trend is bearish
  2. The stochastic is almost overbought
  3. The 50 SMA (yellow) is providing resistance

 

We already booked profit on this trade

We opened a sell forex signal on AUD/USD a while ago and already closed it in profit. The trend is still down despite the climb last Friday. The stochastic indicator was almost overbought and the 50 SMA was providing resistance on top, so we decided to go short. It was an easy decision and we got our pips from that trade.

 

In Conclusion

The US Dollar has continued the downtrend that started last week, but buyers are returning. So, forex majors are not that straightforward today. We have several live forex signals which we will try to nurse during the US session.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 22 – Everyone Hates the USD, the FED Too

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Time and time again in the last 15 months we have seen the USD try to get its head up, only to be slapped down by whoever’s turn it is to do so. The Fed has been on the Dollar’s side during this time, but yesterday they turned against it, or at least that’s what the market thought. The US Dollar took another tough beating yesterday despite the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

 

Powell didn’t sound as hawkish as the market was expecting. Well, Trump is watching him.

 

The Fed Hikes, the Dollar Falls

When a central bank hikes interest rates, the related currency turns bullish. We know that rate hikes are usually priced in by the market so the element of surprise is minimized. But there should be a decent spike on the currency. At least that’s what we have seen for decades in forex.

But the situation has become unbearable for USD traders in the last 15 months. The Fed has hiked interest rates several times during this period, more than any major central bank. In fact, most of the major central banks continue the monetary easing programme, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

The Fed increased interest rates again yesterday, yet the USD turned bearish. The main reason for this bearish turnaround is the Fed dot plot. The dot plot shows the rate hike projections by the Fed for the near future. The market likes this indicator since it is a leading one.

The dot plot showed earlier this year that the Fed was projecting four rate hikes in 2018, while after yesterday’s meeting, the dot plot showed just three rate hikes, including yesterday’s one. That’s when the market turned away from the US Dollar.

Powell sounded less dovish than the market was expecting at his first press conference as the new Fed Chairman. He said that “the Fed is trying to take the middle way on raising interest rates” which didn’t sound too appealing to forex traders, hence the tumble in the USD. Today, the Buck is trying to fight its way back up, but the safe haven currencies remain in charge.

 

 

Cryptocurrencies Forming A Bearish Reversal Pattern

 

As we mentioned yesterday, cryptocurrencies have been trading on a small uptrend in the last several days. They turned bullish after forming a bullish reversal pattern on Sunday. Major cryptos formed a pin or a hammer on the daily charts and subsequently reversed higher in the coming days.

Yesterday though, price formed the opposite of what we saw on Sunday. Major cryptos formed a doji yesterday which is a reversing signal. But the bullish pattern is not complete with only one indicator; in this case the candlestick.

There should be additional indicators to form a bearish reversal pattern. These indicators are the moving average and the stochastic indicator. Bitcoin is having trouble below the 100 SMA (red) which means that this moving average is providing resistance to Bitcoin.

Besides that, the stochastic indicator has reached the overbought area and it is now reversing down. Lest we forget, the trend has been bearish since the start of the year, so the pressure is on the downside. That’s the story in most major cryptocurrencies. They formed a bearish reversal pattern yesterday and today they have started sliding lower already. Bitcoin is around $500 lower from the highs, so the bearish trend has resumed.

How many bearish signals can you spot here?

 

Trades in Sight

Long USD/JPY

 

  1. The major support at 105.50
  2. Additional support at 105.20s

 

The support levels are holding

 

These are the reasons that we went long on this forex pair today. The trend is bearish but price has bounced many times off the 105.50 level. It bounced off this level again this morning which why we decided to go long when price returned there. There was a quick spike lower just now, but the 105.20 level held its ground and now USD/JPY is slowly climbing back up.

 

In Conclusion

The Dollar had a terrible time again after the Fed rate announcement when it was supposed to be the opposite. The Fed hiked interest rates but the USD lost the ground beneath its feet. Although, it is fighting back today. So the picture is quite mixed. It’s difficult to trade right now; so be careful out there.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 21 – Traders Taking Sides Before the FED

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar has been enjoying some nice bids last week. But the FED meeting is approaching and forex traders are trying to pick sides. On Monday, the Buck lost some ground while yesterday it reversed lower. Today it seems like it wants to get back on its feet. We had a couple of forex signals which closed in profit this morning, so we are getting back on our feet too after yesterday.

 

Forex traders are stuck at their screens all day today

Uncertainty Prevails Ahead of the FOMC

The FOMC meeting is due this afternoon and forex traders are trying to open and close trades. Those who have open positions in USD pairs are closing them and cashing the pips, while other forex traders are trying to open positions before the fundamental event this evening. That’s how forex works; there are many traders with small and big accounts and different opinions.

Some of them were long on USD, some of them were short, some traders want to get in on the long side, others try to get in on the short side. EUR/USD rallied on Monday, while yesterday it gave back all of its gains and ended the day at the lows. Today it has made a retracement higher. We saw this as an opportunity to open a sell forex signal which we will explain below in the trades section.

USD/JPY jumped off the support level at 105.50 once again, so it looks like this level is not going to let go. But, we’re not far from it though. Perhaps the rate hike this evening and the FED statement will give this forex pair another boost and send it higher. Today though, the pressure has been on the downside, so the shift from the downtrend to an uptrend will take some time.

We opened a short term buy signal a while ago on USD/JPY at current levels. The sellers managed to make a spike lower in the last hour, but the buyers brought the price back up, so it seems as the pressure is on the top side on this pair.

Commodity currencies have been beaten up pretty badly recently. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have lost more than 200 pips in the last week or so, while USD/CAD has gained more than 300 pips during this time. So, we have a bearish bias for commodity currencies and will try to sell pullbacks today.

 

 

 

Cryptocurrencies Extending the Bullish Run

 

Cryptocurrencies have been trading on a bearish trend for about a month. They formed dojis and pins on Sunday on the daily chart, but I was reluctant to see this as a shift in the trend. As I have pointed out a few times recently, cryptos haven’t been exactly respecting the technical indicators recently, especially the ones that point to a bullish reversal.

So, it ok the pins and dojis on Sunday with some reserves. But, cryptos have been climbing higher in the last three days, so I guess the bullish indicators are being observed.

As you can see from the Litecoin chart below, the doji formed right at the 100 SMA (red). This moving average has been providing support for a long time and it seems like it’s not letting the sellers have their way this time either.

The stochastic indicator was severely oversold, so the reverse made sense. The reverse is happening but we don’t know if this is a real reverse of just a retrace for cryptocurrencies. The stochastic is getting close to the top of the window, which means that it will be overbought soon. By that time, we would have reached the 50 SMA (yellow). If the price moves above it and the uptrend continues, then the trend has shifted.

If the buyers start having trouble at the 50 SMA, then that might be the signal to go short, which means that this is just a retrace of the downtrend. We are long ion Bitcoin so we hope the uptrend resumes.

 

 The bullish reversal is taking shape

 

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/USD

 

  1. The big trend is turning bearish
  2. Yesterday the picture became even more bearish
  3. The retrace up seems complete

This pair is turning bearish now

We opened a sell forex signal in EUR/USD earlier today. This pair has entered a bearish phase since it is not making any new highs. Yesterday the picture turned more bearish as EUR/USD gave back all of Monday’s gains and closed the day at the lows. Now, today’s retrace higher seems to be over, so we decided to go short.

 

In Conclusion

Trading isn’t going to be straightforward today. The FED meeting and interest rate decision is coming at 18:00 GMT, so forex traders are trying to get their act together before the big event. So, we are trying to nurse our open positions as well on EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 16 – Candlesticks and Cryptocurrencies

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar has been beaten up this week, but on Wednesday the Buck started reversing and yesterday closed as a really bullish day for the Buck.  I don’t know what triggered all the buying yesterday because nothing changed fundamentally. So, I guess the market just wants to buy the USD.

Our long term forex signals in EUR/USD and AUD/USD are looking increasingly better as time goes by. Cryptocurrencies have stopped the decline, but I’m spotting a worrying sign, candlesticks are not working anymore.

 

Candlestick charts are much easier to trade

USD Making a Turnaround Except Against Safe Havens

So, the USD started reversing on Wednesday after the downtrend during the first half of the week. I didn’t look like much on Wednesday, but yesterday the USD bulls got all confident out of nowhere. The USD kept climbing and climbing without any resistance whatsoever.

EUR/USD fell from 1.2380 to below 1.23 yesterday. We have two live sell forex signals in this pair, one long term and another short term. I will explain the short term signal in the trades section below. Our long term sell signal is more than 100 pips in profit now.

We also have a long term sell signal in AUD/USD. That signal is nearly 200 pips in profit now as commodity Dollars took a beating yesterday and continue to slide lower today. Now, AUD/USD sellers are trying to break the support level at 0.7750. We might close this signal manually around here if the price action tells us that the sellers can’t push any lower.

The Kiwi is getting battered as well, although not as badly as the Canadian Dollar. As my colleague Shain highlighted yesterday, the 1.30 level is history now for this pair and the buyers are trying to break above the 1.31 level.

It seems like the risk currencies are getting hit hard, while safe havens are getting some strong bids. USD/JPY is back at 105.50 which is a major support level. Gold is running higher too, so, the market sentiment is negative, hence the strong decline in commodity Dollars.

 

 

Candlesticks Are Not Working As They Should in Cryptocurrencies

Candlesticks are a very important aspect of technical analysis. The show when the price is about to reverse at the end of a trend or a pullback. Those candlestick that do that job are the pins, dojis, hammers and morning/evening starts.

Candlesticks also show when an instrument is in a middle of a trend and the trend is about to push higher. These candlesticks are called bullish or bearish engulfing candles.

Candlesticks work pretty well in forex and they have worked reasonably well in the cryptocurrency market. But recently, these candlesticks are not working as they should for cryptos.

As you can see from daily Bitcoin chart below, the price moved higher after the doji about two months ago, then it reversed back down by mid-February after the upside down pin below the 100 SMA (green). At the end of February, Bitcoin made a small doji above the support area at $9,200, which followed by another reverse higher.

The last candlestick to show a reversal formed about two weeks ago, and Bitcoin revered the next day. Since then, we have seen a few doji and pin candlesticks, but we’re not seeing a reverse higher. We saw a doji about a week ago and again three days ago just above the 100 SMA (red).

But the reverse didn’t come. Yesterday the price formed another pin which is signalling a reversal, but the reversal is just not happening. So, the candlesticks are not working that good recently for cryptos. This point to further bearish sentiment in this market.

 

Yesterday’s pin is not followed by a bullish candlestick today, although it’s still early until the day ends

 

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/USD

 

  1. The short-term trend is bearish
  2. The retrace up is complete on the H1 chart
  3. The SMAs were providing resistance

The next leg of the downtrend is now underway

We opened a sell forex signal in EUR/USD when we posted the update about the GBP/USD. By the way, if you took that trade, you should be well in profit as that pair has turned south now. So, has EUR/USD and it wasn’t difficult to spot. The trend is down, the retrace up was complete since stochastic was overbought and the moving averages were providing resistance on top.

 

In Conclusion

Today is Friday and the week is drawing to a close. The US Dollar is in full swing at the moment, so it looks like this will be one of the rare weeks when the Buck ends it while being in charge. Our EUR/USD signal just hit take profit, while the long term signals are advancing further, so it is a good day. Let’s keep it like this until the end.

Forex Signals US Session Brief, March 15 – Trade War Gets Closer

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

When Donald Trump won the US elections, many people in the US and abroad were a bit worried. Most people had an unexplained fear about him being President. He made a few good points during the campaign, but I feared that he was going to make a mess of things.

It doesn’t matter how good your intentions are, if you don’t have the capacity, the chances are that you will make things worse, rather than better. Trump seems to be starting a trade war, which is one of those unnecessary things that doesn’t help global economies.

 

What the hell are these tariffs Trump?

 

Tariffs Everywhere

Major global economies haven’t exactly started to apply tariffs on imported goods, but they are talking about them. Donald Trump started the game, now everyone is drawn in against their will.

Trump pulled this trick out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago and now everyone is talking about tariffs. Officials from India said earlier that they are disappointed by US tariffs on steel. ArcelorMittal is the biggest steel producer in the world and it is an Indian company, meaning they will be hit by tariffs.

The SNB (Swiss National Bank) had its meeting today. They were pretty dovish as always, but the CHF is a bit stronger today. The uncertainty from Italian politics has been weighing on the EUR/CHF, but the main reason is the uncertainty of a possible trade war.

Chairman Jordan said earlier that protectionism tendencies pose a great risk for Switzerland. The CHF is likely to become a strong safe haven again if uncertainty returns to markets.

He also said that if international trade doesn’t work well, everyone will be harmed. That’s true. This is how tariffs hurt the consumer. The US places tariffs on Steel and Aluminium, so US Army and US companies are more likely to purchase the raw materials from US companies, since they will be a bit cheaper. That will boost these companies for a while, but the prices that the final consumer will pay are likely to be higher too. Also, the product will likely be of a lower standard, because US companies and military would have chosen domestic companies to purchase in the first place. Instead of importing Steel and Aluminium from India, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, EU etc.

The other countries won’t sit on their hands either, as they have been warning. The UE for instance, will likely introduce tariffs on US products, say on Harley motorcycles. The European consumer will have to buy similar motorcycles of a lower standard for a higher price. A few US steel companies might benefit from the tariffs, but the motorcycle companies will suffer.

So, tariffs and the trade war are a zero sum game for business in general, while, for the general consumer, this is a lose/lose situation.

 

Cryptocurrencies Continue Down, but Litecoin Is Finding Support at the Moving Averages

Yesterday, cryptocurrencies stretched a nit further down, but when I posted the midday brief, they were pulling up. The daily candlesticks looked like they were going to close as pins, which are reversing signals. But eventually, the daily candlestick closed pretty bearish.

Bitcoin broke the support at $8,200-300 level and Litecoin followed it lower. It continued to slide further early this morning, but Litecoin reached a major technical indicator this morning.

That indicator is the 100 SMA (red), as you can see from the daily chart below. The pice has found support on this moving average many times before and it has never managed to close below it, despite briefly piercing it a few times. This moving average has never been broken to the downside.

Being such an important indicator for buyers, I think many forex traders are looking at it, which is why it is working again as support. The price has bounced off and now the price is about 10% higher from the lows. Cryptocurrencies are always strange to trade, but I think that this might be the turning point for litecoin.

The 100 SMA is providing solid support again today

 

Trades in Sight

Bullish Litecoin

  1. The bigger trend is still bullish
  2. The retrace down seems complete
  3. Stochastic is oversold
  4. We have reached the 100 SMA

 

We have a bullish bias for Litecoin at the moment, despite moving lower over the last couple of weeks. The daily chart is oversold and we have reached the 100 SMA, which has been a long term support level, as we explained above. We are not going long right now, but we are thinking about it, so hang around.

 

In Conclusion

The market sentiment is doing all the talking today. The risk seems a bit off, so safe haven assets are attracting some bids, although they’re nothing to write home about. The economic data is light today too, so the sentiment will continue to drive the markets around.

 

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 13 – The Trend Is Changing for USD/JPY

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrencies have been sliding lower in the last few trading sessions. Although, the price action is pretty slow so nothing has changed in this market since yesterday. We will focus on forex in today’s midday brief, particularly on USD/JPY which looks like is reversing the long term trend and on EUR/USD.

 

The JPY looks pretty tired today

Getting Ready to Go Long on USD/JPY

USD/JPY has been on a downtrend for quite some time. It started reversing down at the ebgining of January and it continued to slide down until it reached the long term support area around 105.00-105.50.

The top of that support zone at 105.50 was broken two weeks ago but the sellers couldn’t push below the bottom of the zone at 105. The buyers pushed back above 105.50 and above 106. Sellers returned again and they tried to break the 105.50 level again early last week, but that failed.

The 105.50 level held and that was a sign that the trend was about to change. The price moved above the 50 SMA last week, as you can see on the H4 chart below.

The 50 SMA has now turned into support

The sellers had another attempt last night to break this moving average, but it held its ground. Now this moving average has turned into support. When the price moves above a moving average and it turns into support, then we can say that the trend has changed, or is changing.

We finally broke above the 20 SMA

From the daily USD/JPY chart, we can see that the 20 SMA (grey) has been providing resistance in the last two months during the downtrend. It has pushed the price lower and it was providing resistance in the last two trading days as well.

But, last night’s push higher took us above the 20 SMA. This is another sign that the trend is changing for this forex pair. If you switch to the weekly chart, you can see that the price has moved back above the 200 SMA which stands at 106.10. So, there are several signs that are pointing to a trend reversal.

Although, the daily chart is overbought. So, I will wait for another pullback lower, probably to 106.00-50. Then after checking the price action, we might open a long term buy forex signal in this pair.

 

The Retrace Higher in AUD/USD Should Be Over Soon

If you follow our forex signals, you should be short on this forex pair. We opened a long term sell forex signal by mid January at 0.7950s which is still on. We were 200 pips down with this signal at some point and 200 pips in profit a couple of weeks later.

Now, this pair has retraced higher and we’re nearly 100 pips in profit. But, it seems as the retrace has run its course. The stochastic indicator on the daily chart is already overbought, which means that this pair is now overbought.

You can see that this forex pair climbed to 0.7890 today. The area around 0.79 has been providing resistance before and looks like it is doing the same today as well.

Besides that, the 50 SMA (yellow) is standing right at that level. So, that is adding additional strength to this resistance zone. As we have seen quite often in the past, these retraces (up or down) usually end at a moving average and when stochastic becomes overbought/oversold.

The chart setup right now meets the criteria for a reversal down. A doji, a pin or a hammer candlestick would be nice since these candlesticks are reversing signals and they would weaken the buyers further. But, I have this feeling that the next move will be down and it will be strong.

 

The retrace up seems complete

 

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/USD

 

  1. The trend is bearish
  2. The price looks in favour of sellers
  3. The 100 SMA is providing resistance on the H1 chart

 

The buyers can’t push above the 100 SMA

We opened a sell forex signal in EUR/USD a while ago. The trend is down and the buyers don’t look strong enough for a decent retrace higher. This pair has traded in a range since last Thursday and now we are at the top of the range. The 100 SMA (green) is also providing resistance at the top, so we are bearish on this pair.

 

In Conclusion

The markets have been pretty quiet today apart from Yen pairs. But, the US inflation report is scheduled to be released in about an hour, so that will definitely stir things up. We have been doing well in the last two days with forex signals, so hopefully we remain on top today again.

The US Dollar has been beaten up pretty bad in the last week or so as it has lost considerable ground against most major currencies during this time. Trump’s tariffs and peace talks from North Korea have damaged the USD.

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrencies formed a bearish chart setup on Monday and in the next 2-3 days, the bearish setup unfolded in full force. Today though, they are trying to recuperate. EUR/USD is forming a bearish setup as well, exactly like the one we saw in Bitcoin on Monday, which is pointing to the downside in this pair. Let’s see how this chart looks like.

 

EUR/UD is trying to make up its mind at the moment

EUR/USD Is Turning Bearish

EUR/USD has been trending higher in the last several days. At first, it was Donald Trump which sent the Buck lower, thus reversing this pair higher when he tweeted about tariffs on Steel and Aluminium. He will sign the … today. This means that Trump is opening another front in this trade war and that is not good for the USD in the short term.

The next push higher came after North Korea turned soft which improved the market sentiment. As a result, EUR/USD climbed around 300 pips in the last several days. But, it failed to reach the previous highs above 1.25. This is a bearish sign.  

The stochastic indicator is already overbought and it is now turning down. This means that EUR/USD is overbought on the daily timeframe, so the next move should be down.

Another bearish signal is yesterday’s daily candlestick. It formed a doji and the doji is a reversing signal. Today’s candlestick has already started to look bearish, but the market is awaiting the ECB, so the price action has been pretty slow today. The ECB is expected to remain cautious again today, which should be sort of dovish for this pair.

 

EUR/USD is looking bearish but the ECB is ruining the chart setup

Bitcoin Is Trying to Reclaim the $10,000 Level

Bitcoin formed a pin candlestick on Monday just below the resistance level at $11,600-700. Just like EUR/USD at the moment, Bitcoin looked like it was turning bearish, which unfolded in the next few days.

Yesterday, the downside picked up more pace as Bitcoin broke the $10,000 level. It briefly climbed above that big level again, but eventually closed the day below $10,000.

Today though, the sellers look weak. They don’t seem to be able to push further below and make some new lows. That would be bearish. But if the sellers can’t make new lows, then the pressure shifts to the upside.

The low of this latest bearish move comes at $10,200-300. That was the low about two weeks ago during the previous bearish move. So, this area has formed a strong support level and Bitcoin has traded inside it for nearly a month.

Today, the buyers are trying to reclaim the $10,000 level again. They pushed above it a few hours ago but again, the sellers pushed it back down. Well, the reverse up doesn’t come that easily, so it will take some time. But, the range is clear here and Bitcoin is having difficulties breaking the bottom line of this range. That means that the next move will be up.

 

The range is $1,500 wide in Bitcoin

Trades in Sight

Bearish GBP/USD

 

  1. The 100 SMA is providing resistance on the H4 chart
  2. Stochastic is overbought and turning down
  3. The 20 SMA is providing resistance on the daily chart

 

The 100 SMA has done a gat job this week

We had a sell forex signal in this pair which closed earlier today. We opened at 1.3880s yesterday and we plan to open another one around those levels. The 100 SMA (green) has been providing resistance on the H4 chart at 1.3910 and the 20 SMA has been providing resistance on the daily chart at the same levels. This pair is climbing higher now, so get ready.

 

In Conclusion

The ECB left the interest rates on hold an hour ago, as expected. But the statement had a more hawkish tone, so the Euro is rallying. Mario Draghi is holding the usual speech, so there’s volatility in the major pairs right now.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 7 – USD and Cryptocurrencies Trying to Get Back on Their Feet

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

Yesterday was a bad day for the US Dollar and cryptocurrencies. The Buck had a tough time as the market sentiment improved while cryptocurrencies were sold off after Ripple was refused to list on a stock exchange. Today though, the sign shows that the situation might be reversing, although not right now. So, let’s have a look if the market is to reverse soon.

 

Bitcoin doesn’t look so bearish today

USD Trying to Get Its Act Together

The US Dollar tried to make a comeback in the second week of February. EUR/USD reversed at 1.2550s by the middle of last month and it lost more than 400 pips until the end of the month. But, March hasn’t exactly been the month of the USD so far.

In the last five working days this forex pair has climbed around 300 pips. So, all the hard work that the sellers did last month is almost undone in only a few days.

As we mentioned yesterday, the reasons for the latest USD dumping during this time came from the US and from North Korea. Donald Trump is pushing for tariffs on US Steel and Aluminium imports while North Korea is playing the nice guy all of a sudden.

As we have seen in the past year, every change that is related to forex, ends up sending the USD lower. When the market sentiment turns sour, safe havens rally and the USD loses. When the market sentiment improves, the risk currencies rally and the Buck gets beaten up again, this has been the story for the USD for more than a year.

But, the market is also wary of the current levels in the USD. EUR/USD is trading near 1.25 which has been a major resistance area. So, USD sellers are reconsidering their plans now. USD/JPY is at a strong support level as well. The 105.50 level was breached last week, but today it is holding well. So, it seems like the USD buyers are trying to take control, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to.

 

 

 

Cryptocurrencies Turned Bearish Yesterday but There’s No Follow Through Today

Yesterday Cryptocurrencies turned bearish. As you can see from the daily chart below, Bitcoin formed an upside-down pin on Monday, which is a reversing signal after an uptrend. That was a bearish signal and yesterday cryptocurrencies really turned bearish.

Bitcoin lost nearly $1,000 yesterday, so the daily candlestick looks pretty bearish. The whole chart setup looked bearish in fact. Stochastic was overbought and it turned down and the resistance at $11,600-700 rejected the price for the second time. It all started after Coinbase denied rumours to list Ripple coin (XRP) on the exchange.

So, according to that chart setup, today cryptocurrencies should have continued lower again. But the sellers look pretty weak today. Bitcoin sellers pushed to $10,360 earlier today but the buyers are pushing back up.

Below we have the 50 SMA (yellow) and below that moving average is the $10,000 level. So, there is protection for buyers further down. But the price action is showing us that Bitcoin wants to turn up. The daily candlestick looks like a doji which is a reversing signal, although there’s plenty of time until the day closes.

 

Bitcoin doesn’t look like it wants to push further down today

Trades in Sight

Bearish AUD/USD

 

  1. The bigger trend is bearish
  2. The buyers are getting weaker
  3. The ascending trend line is catching up with the price

 

The moving averages above go in our favour

A few hours ago we went short on AUD/USD. The price action was showing weakness on this pair so we decided to open a sell forex signal. The trend line is also catching up with the price. When that happens, the next leg of the downtrend is supposed to resume. We also have a long term sell signal here, so we ae bearish on this pair.

 

In Conclusion

In a short while the Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold its meeting, so I expect some volatility in CAD pairs. The US crude Oil inventories will be released at the same time as well, so it’s going to be messy for the CAD, be careful if you are trading USD/CAD.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 6 – Risk Assets Rally as North Korea Makes A U-Turn

Posted on by Skerdian Meta

North Korea has just made a sudden turnaround on their “Great Politics” a short while ago and the market is starting to move. Risk assets such as commodity dollars and Gold are rallying, while safe haven assets such and CHF and JPY are tumbling. The cryptocurrencies have also turned bearish today, so the larger bullish trend of the last month is starting to look weak now.

 

They are both messing with markets, guess who’s who

Commodity Dollars Up, Safe Havens Down on North Korea

Fundamentals are in full swing, taking the financial markets into their hands now. Earlier today we had the European Commission said that the EU has the right to take retaliatory measures on US products, such as Jeans, Harley motorcycles, cosmetics, boats as well as agricultural products. That comes after Trump’s tweets about US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium.

The market sentiment was starting to turn negative and the JPY was receiving some bids. But, USD/JPY made a sudden reversal higher and so did the commodity dollars, which are risk currencies.  That means that the market buys these currencies when it feels like taking risks.

When I saw the jump, I thought that Trump had posted another tweet where he apologized for all this mess. Well, we know Trump never apologizes so that wasn’t the case this time.

The move came from North Korea (NK). NK sent a delegation to South Korea and they are talking about denuclearization. Where the hell did this come from? Up to a few weeks ago they were threatening the world and trying nukes around north Pacific. Now they are going all soft. What the hell happened?

I bet they are all trading forex, Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un. Theresa May, you name it. They make a trade, then they make a comment which gets the market rolling and later book the profit. It’s easy to make money when you have power, isn’t it?

But, they’re doing what they are doing because they don’t know what they’re actually doing, honestly. A right-wing politician like Trump who imposes barriers? An anti-Brexit Prime Minister that leads the Brexit process, making a mess of it? Kim Jong Un? No need to mention anything about Kim, is there?

It looks like teenagers have taken over the world and the financial markets don’t know what to do, one session safe havens rally strongly on Trump’s tweets, the next, they get battered on North Korea. That’s what trading forex has come up to these days.

 

Cryptocurrencies Don’t Look so Bullish Today

Yesterday we talked about Bitcoin and how it looked all bullish at the time of writing. Last week’s candlestick seemed pretty bullish and it closed above the 20 SMA on the weekly chart. That moving average used to be strong support last year, then it turned into strong resistance this year. So, closing above it was a bullish sign.

But, cryptocurrencies don’t look so bullish today. I did mention yesterday in the midday brief, that the last obstacle for buyers was the high from two weeks ago at $11,730s. They had to take that level out so the bullish trend entered the next phase.

But, today is a different story. Cryptos have turned bearish without notice and Bitcoin has lost around $800 form the highs yesterday. As you can see from the daily chart below, Bitcoin reversed right at resistance.

Yesterday’s candlestick formed as an upside down pin. That’s a reversing signal after an uptrend. The stochastic indicator is overbought as well and today’s candlestick looks really bearish. So, cryptos might be entering a bearish phase now.

 

This looks like a double top, but it’s too early to tell.

Trades in Sight

Bearish USD/JPY

 

  1. The trend is bearish
  2. The buying has now stopped
  3. The 100 SMA is providing resistance

 

The last hourly candlestick looks bearish to me

USD/JPY has been trading on a bearish trend for quite some time. It made a retracement up last night, but the sellers returned. In the last two hours, we saw another spike higher which came after North Korea comments, but it seems like the buying has stopped now. So, the downtrend is resuming again.

 

In Conclusion

Everything is going haywire now. North Korea is spicing things up again, so don’t get caught in the middle of this, trade with care. Also, keep an eye on Donald Trump’s twitter because chances are that he will try to get back at EU threats about retaliation, that’s the kind of guy he is.