Forex Signals US Session Brief April 19 – Another Sign That the UK Economy Is heading Down

Posted on April 19, 2018April 25, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

It’s been a relatively quiet European session today. The economic data has been pretty light to move the market, apart from the UK retail sales report which was released this morning. It was a terrible one but the GBP didn’t really care much about it, unlike yesterday. Cryptocurrencies continue to grind higher, albeit very slowly.

Brexit Has Already Hurt the UK Economy Before Happening

Yesterday, the UK inflation report came our pretty bad, cording to the market. According to me, it was great. Inflation has been running hot in the UK and it has been around 3% for nearly a year. That means that the prices have been going up which is not good for the ordinary Brit, whose wages haven’t been exactly keeping up with inflation.

You feel it if you live here. 10 years ago you would fill your trolley in the supermarket for 100 quid. Nowadays, you can’t even buy half the trolley with 100 pounds. So, to me, falling inflation is great.

But not to the market, since the market is just trying to make some pips. The market doesn’t care for the economy, nor does it care for humans; the market doesn’t have an opinion. That’s why I’m not in favour of a completely freeeeee market without any human intervention such as governments. The US healthcare system and the music industry are great examples how the free market doesn’t solve everything. I guess I’m a bit on the left, but slightly.

Anyhow, today we had another economic release from the UK and it was another red number, this time it was a really bad one. UK retail sales declined from 0.4% last month to -1.2% this time. We have sen the construction sector contract in the last couple of months, while the service sector slipped to flat last month.

Yesterday inflation dived and today retail sales post a terrible number. It seems like all sectors are starting to show great signs of weakness and Brexit haven’t started yet. I heard that 10,000 jobs will be lost on the first day of Brexit, be it soft or hard. It’s not looking good for Britain but the GBP doesn’t care. We are about to trade GBP/USD now and will explain the trade below.

Cryptocurrencies Are Trying to Make A Decision

Cryptocurrencies have recovered in the last two weeks after the major downtrend which started at the end of December and lasted for more than three months. They recuperated between 10% and 20% last week.

This week, they continue to grind higher, particularly Litecoin. I mentioned last week that Litecoin was introducing the second debit card soon, so it is increasingly intruding into the normal banking sector. After all, that was the purpose of cryptocurrencies since the beginning, an alternative source of payment rather than an investment opportunity, which was the reason why the crypto market exploded late last year.

Litecoin and Bitcoin formed a doji candlestick on the weekly chart, just above the 50 SMA. That looked like a bullish formation and last week closed with a bullish candlestick. But, both these cryptos face the 100 SMA (red) on the daily chart now.

As you can see from the chart below, Litecoin is trading right below the 100 SMA. That moving average have provided support on the way down and it is likely to turn into resistance now. So, unless Litecoin and Bitcoin move above the 100 SMA, the trend remains bearish. If the buyers manage to push above it, then I think that we should consider that as a trend reversal.

The 100 SMA will be difficult to overcome I suppose

Trades in Sight

Bearish GBP/USD

The trend has turned bearish
The retrace up is complete on the H1 chart
The 50 SMA is providing resistance

This looks like a bearish chart pattern

We just opened a sell forex signal in this pair. The short term trend has changed for GBP/USD and today’s climb looks more like a retrace before the next move down. The 50 SMA (yellow) is providing resistance on the H1 chart, which is overbought since stochastic is overbought. Now, let’s wait for the downside to resume again.

In Conclusion

We have had a good day so far with forex signals. We had three winning signals and opened another one now. There’s not much on the economic calendar for the afternoon, so it is going to be all about charts and the market sentiment. We will try to read into both of them.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 18 – Federal Europe Style Is the Only to Face Chaotic Globalization

Posted on April 18, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The EU summit is taking place this week. Britain is leaving but the other EU leaders are pushing for more integration. I think they have realised that you cannot hang around forever doing nothing and expect things to get better. Things have a tendency to rot if you don’t keep moving and evolving with time.

A visionary Merkel

United States of Europe Should Be Positive for the Euro

The EU summit is underway today in its second day. The main issue is Brexit although unlike the UK, which will have this problem for the long run, for the EU this is a short-to-mid term issue. One of the problems that Brexit brings along, is the EU budget. The UK is the second biggest contributor to the EU budget. So its departure will leave some holes in the pockets of the EU.

That’s if the UK pursues a really hard Brexit. Even in that case, Britain will likely be forced to pay some cash into the budget. But, it seems like the UK government is taking the soft Brexit path, which means that the UK will have to cough up a lot more, probably as much as it contributes now. And that comes without much of a say inside the EU.

The long term challenge for Europe is the Federal Europe. With the departure of Brtain which is doesn’t really mean a departure now that soft Brexit is happening, Europe has come to the conclusion that the integration should accelerate before everything falls apart.

Europe and the West in general are facing major problems with globalization such as business relocation from the West to developing countries (China, India, Indonesia etc) which means that governments in the West will have less and less administrative power since taxes flow away to developing countries together with international companies.

Cryptocurrencies are also emerging and they will also increase the mobility of the capital. The capital will be easier to fly out of countries and into safe havens. Safe havens are another headache. Only Switzerland used to be a safe haven until a couple of decades ago, now there are tens of statelets which act as safe haven.

Mass migration is the most evident effect of globalization and that’s another major issue Europe and the USA are trying to address and will be addressing it a lot more. Europe is already paying billions to Turkey and the North African states to keep immigrants there and not send them to Europe, while Trump is taking care of China.

You can’ take care of globalization if you are a small country, like the UK. The UK is a relatively small country nowadays, despite many Britons still thinking they are a global empire. But in reality, it is small and it will smaller as other parts of the world develop and grow. Countries like the UK and France still hold some power, but the strength is diminishing relatively to the new world that is evolving.

Neither of them, let alone smaller European countries, can’t tackle the globalization issues. So, the only way is to group in bigger formations according to culture, race, region etc. The EU is the first real attempt to build such a formation.

The African Union is underway too. Which one is next, South Asian Union? Will there be a Middle Eastern Union. We don’t know how fast thing will move but we know this is the way, not the chaotic globalization that has occurred these last 30-50-100 years, depending on the country.

Only such unions such as the EU can tackle such problems. South European countries couldn’t stop immigration, nor North European countries each on their own. Nor can they stop intimidation from Russia or Turkey, or Trump for that matter.

So, although there are many who oppose the EU, that’s the only way forward, otherwise it will be chaos, as it has been during this time. Globalization has been the cause of Brexit. The UK wanted a way out of this global madness, for which they have contributed a great deal themselves. But, you can’t get out of it just like that, it takes time to build institutions and get closer together, which is what the EU has been trying to do.

Yesterday, the French PM Macron called for more integration while Merkel said earlier today that the EU needs to build an European Monetary Fund. The Banking and other sectors of the European economies are being consolidated, so we’re heading for Federal Europe.

This is mildly positive for the Euro at the moment and the Euro has found a few bids today. The GBP on the other hand has been losing considerably ground. Inflation is cooling off in the UK, so the BOE (Bank of England) might not hike interest rates in May, we will see.

Trades in Sight

Bullish USD/JPY

The trend is bullish
The 50 SMA is providing support
The retrace down seems looks complete

The 50 SMA held its ground

We are long on this forex pair already since last Friday. Yesterday the pullback lower stretched further but the uptrend has resumed again today. There was another retrace down early today, but the 50 SMA (yellow) provided support and stochastic has become oversold, so I think the bullish trend will resume soon. If you are not following our USD/JPY signal, then you can buy right here.

In Conclusion

The Bank of Canada will release the interest rate decision and the statement very soon so I better get this update posted and see what the BOC has in its bag. USD/CAD is waiting in limbo since the US crude Oil inventories will be released at the same time, which means double whammy for the CAD.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 16 – Will the Negative Trend of the US Retail Sales Change Today?

Posted on April 16, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Are the US retail sales going to pick up this time?

The US retail sales are about to be released and they are the biggest data release today, so I suppose the market is anticipating it. The price action in most forex majors has been mixed which means that the market is undecided. Hopefully, the US retail sales report will give us a direction.

Retail Sales Coming Up

Retail sales have been missing exp3ctations in the last several months. Core retail sales haven’t been posting negative numbers, but in the last three months the numbers have been weak and below expectations.

The headline retail sales number though, has been negative in the last two months. February came at -0.3% while March came at -0.1%. That’s surprising considering that the US economy has been improving considerably in the last several months. At least, that’s what the FED has been telling us.

In fact, the US economy is doing pretty good, but there are caveats. The FED (Federal Reserve) is saying that inflation is picking up and it will reach the target at 2% this year but I don’t see any real inflationary pressure.

The wages have also been lagging as the economic recovery extends further. The retail sales have been negative in the last three months and if we get another negative number this time, then retail sales will be another headache for the FED.

This means that they will probably reassess the rate hike path for this year. So, a negative number today is likely to send the US Dollar tumbling. Retail sales haven’t been a major market mover recently, but they might be today if the numbers are bad.

Decisive Time for Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies have been trading on a downtrend since late December. The massive bullish trend that we saw last year shifted as the gold rush for cryptos wore out and it’s been a one way street since then.

The jumps have been relatively shallow so the buyers have had a tough time. Last week though, cryptocurrencies started forming a reversal after the doji candlestick on the weekly chart the previous week.

Bitcoin climbed more than $1,600 last week, while Ethereum climbed $160. That means that Ethereum appreciated more than 30% during this time. Litecoin started turning bullish too and it also increased its value more than 30%.

But, the climb seems to have stopped now, at least for the time being. The buyers are finding it tough to take out the resistance at $134. But even if they do, the 100 SMA (red) is waiting above here. The daily chart is almost overbought. So, the retrace up might have reached its limit.

That’s if the trend is not changing. Otherwise, if the big trend is turning bullish, then the 100 SMA on top should be broken sometime this week. So, we will sit on the sidelines to see if the trend is really changing.

The resistance is not easy to overcome

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD

The trend has is bullish
The 50 SMA will likely provide support
The retrace looks complete

The 50 SMA is a great place to buy

We have had a few winning signals on NZD/USD. We have been buying the pullbacks lower which has resulted a successful strategy. Today, this pair has retraced lower again, so it looks like a good opportunity to go long.

In Conclusion

We would have bought NZD/USD now, but the US retail sales report is about to be released very soon. So, we are staying out at the moment to see what’s in store, before making a move in one of major fore pairs.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 13 – War Is Coming, but the Forex Market has Gone Numb

Posted on April 13, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Does anyone know about inflation in Syria?

Today we are hearing additional war comments from all sides after Donald Trump’s tweet yesterday. The Russians who have been involved in Syria in recent years are responding today while European powers are getting involved as well. The market is not taking the slightest notice though. Safe havens are down while risk currencies are up.

The World Is Changing, for Better or for Worse

Yesterday in the morning (in the US), Donald Trump tweeted that a strike in Syria is coming very soon, or not soon at all. It’s a bit confusing as most of Trump’s ideas are, but we all know the meaning, war is coming.

That came after chemical weapons were used again. Syria is supposed to have destroyed its chemical weapon several years back when they were handed out to NATO. But apparently, they still have some left or perhaps Putin has brought new weapons.

The US took the lead as it is usually the case and the European powers are joining in. The French joined the US very quickly and the British PM Theresa May bypassed the parliament, joining the forces with the US as well.

Russian officials said today that Russia’s international relations shouldn’t depend on one person’s mood in the morning. We know who’s mood. Germany said it will do everything to maintain diplomatic pressure on Russia while Lavrov said that the atmosphere around Syria is very alarming. Yes, of course, it’s alarming for Russian interests.

The market should have gone crazy on these war comments. But as I said yesterday, the market is getting used to such nonsense. Besides, there is still hope that everything cools off and things go back to normal.

Well, this market reaction is not normal to be honest. Once the first missile is released, I am sure that everything will go mental in forex. Safe havens asset such as Gold and JPY will surge, so keep an eye on the political news today.

EUR/USD Is Looking Increasingly Bearish

EUR/USD has been trading in a bullish trend for several days. But on Wednesday, this pair formed an upside down pin on the daily chart. That pin is a reversing signal, so it was a strong bearish sign and this pair turned bearish yesterday.

The daily candlestick yesterday was a big bearish one worth 80 pips from top to bottom. Today, the price action is looking bearish as well. EUR/USD jumped around 30 pips early in the morning, but it reversed and it is heading back down now.

We opened a forex signal near the top. We sold this forex pair at the 100 SMA (green) since this moving average was providing resistance after the price moved below it. Now, EUR/USD is heading down, so our signal looks good.

There was an ECB official speaking earlier on in Macedonia and his comments sounded dovish to me. Smet said that weak inflation is concerning for the ECB. There are many uncertainties in the Euro area and the slack in the Eurozone might be bigger than previously thought. He also added that ECB’s patience and persistence are justified, which means that the current monetary policy will continue. That’s the opposite of what Nowotny said on Monday.

So, those comments didn’t help the bullish cause of EUR/USD buyers. EUR/USD continues to slide lower and is set to take out yesterday’s lows at 1.23. if 1.23 goes, then 1.22 is next and that’s the major level.

Trades in Sight

Bearish EUR/USD

The trend has turned bearish
The 100 SMA provided resistance

EUR/USD is edging toward our TP target

We opened a sell signal in EUR/USD earlier on. This pair was climbing up in the morning, but the 100 SMA (green) was providing resistance. The daily chart also looked pretty bearish, so we decided to pull the trigger and now the price is near the take profit level.

In Conclusion

The major powers are gathering their forces to attack the Syrian regime but we are not seeing any sign of this in the forex market. Although, Donald Trump has just woken up, so keep an eye on his twitter to see when the red button will be pressed, because that will shake the markets.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 11 – US Inflation Is Not Going Anywhere Soon, Unlike Gold

Posted on April 11, 2018April 11, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Gold has been surging today and it is aiming for the highs. There’s a slight run in the financial markets for safe havens today because the Yen has received some decent bids as USD/JPY pushes lower. But, I can feel some USD weakness as well. The inflation report from the US didn’t do much to help the US Dollar. It was slightly disappointing.

Inflation is slowly picking up but it’s not exactly skyrocketing

The FED Is Confident, but Inflation Is Not Coming

The FED has become increasingly confident in the US economy and inflation. Wages and inflation have been lagging during the economic recovery. They have been keeping the FED in check, otherwise monetary tightening would have been quicker.

The FED has been getting confident about inflation and wages as well, but we have yet to see some strong numbers from these two sectors. There was a slight pickup in average earnings (wages) last month, but inflation is not doing its part.

The CPI (consumer price index) report was released a while ago and it didn’t look like something that would force the FED to get crazy with rate hikes. If anything, it was a bit disappointing.

The yearly CPI number came at 2.4% as expected. Leaving out food and energy, the CPI came at 2.1% which was right on expectations. Although, the monthly CPI number came at -0.1%.

The US Dollar took a small dip and USD/JPY lost around 20 pips after the release. But the decline has stopped and we decided to take a trade on this pair. We opened a buy forex signal which we will explain in the next forex update.

Gold Surges but Faces A Major Obstacle

Gold has been quite bullish this week. It has climbed around $25 and today the climb has picked up considerable pace. As I mentioned above, safe haven assets are receiving some strong bids today as USD/JPY losses around 60 pips.

The Swiss Franc has lost some of the safe-haven appeal at the moment because the SNB (Swiss National Bank) has become quite active in buying EUR/CHF, thus selling the CHF.

But, judging by the price action in Gold and JPY pairs, we can say that there is some love for safe havens today. The daily candlestick looks really bullish today, but we are looking at the monthly chart. As you can see from the chart below, Gold has been on a bullish trend for more than two years.

Although, in the last 15 months, Gold hasn’t been able to break above the 100 SMA (green). T has been pierced several times during that period, but eventually it has reversed the price back down, so we can say that it is solid resistance.

Besides that moving average, the area around $1,360 has been resistance for quite some time. So, Gold buyers face a tough challenge above. The stochastic indicator is almost overbought so we might see another reverse here. But, Gold has been very bullish recently, so it might as well break above, both options remain open for now.

The 100 SMA looks too tough a resistance

Trades in Sight

Bullish GBP/USD

The trend is very bullish
The 50 SMA will provide support
The retrace lower seems complete

The 200 SMA looks like a good place to buy

GBP/USD has been one of the most bullish pairs this week. It has gained around 250 pips in the last several days so the way to go in this pair is up, until the trend reverses. The retrace lower today seems complete since stochastic is oversold and the 50 SMA is providing support. We haven’t gone long yet but we might open a buy forex signal soon here.

In Conclusion

I almost forgot, the ECB chairman Draghi was out earlier today, but he didn’t say much rewarding monetary policy. He spoke about the EU so there was no reaction in Euro pairs. So, let’s concentrate on trading now.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 10 – Market Sentiment Improves as Central Bankers Sound Hawkish

Posted on April 10, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Nowotny is talking about rate hikes

The market sentiment has been negative for some time, but it has shifted in the last few days. As a result, the commodity currencies have been grinding higher, particularly in the last two days. The central bankers have been trying to keep us busy, making hawkish comments which has helped improve the sentiment further. Central bankers used to be so grim for about a decade but they are starting to change.

BOJ’s Kuroda Knows When to Strike

The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was out this morning doing his job in scaring off JPY bulls. He hasn’t been very successful in trying to stop the steep decline in USD/JPY during the last three months, but now the situations has changed and Kuroda has become more confident.

USD/JPY has reversed the trend in the last two weeks so I bet Kuroda is watching the charts. I say so because when the Yen is on a bullish run and USD/JPY is on a bearish trend, Kuroda holds back as he knows he can’t do much to change the negative market sentiment. He has lost face so many times in the last several years trying to talk USD/JPY higher, but eventually failing.

The market sentiment is global and Japan is not a big player at the moment. So, there’s not much to do for the Japanese if they want to improve the market sentiment, which usually sends the JPY lower and USD/JPY higher.

The here month decline in USD/JPY has stopped and USD/JPY has been on an uptrend during the last two weeks, so Kuroda decided to give some dovish comments, which are bullish for USD/JPY. Here are some of his comments:

The target at 2% wasn’t a mistake as all major central banks have this as their target.
The current inflation levels in Japan are far from the target
Exit will be very slow (whenever it begins)
Will continue with powerful easing to achieve the price target

The Chinese vice commerce minister is calling out on other nations to protect the World Trade Organisation. But, no one wants to get between two giants when they’re fighting. So, China’s pleas have gone unheard recently. He also said that China is unwilling to fight a trade war but not afraid to do so.

The Chinese prime minister Li was also out today saying that trade war will only hurt everyone’s interests. But, Trump is obsessed with China-US trade balance so nothing will change his mind.

Update: Nowotny just said that the ECB will end asset buying this year. He added that the ECB could lift repo rates from -0.4% to -0.2% to start the normalization. The Euro has started to move and EUR/USD has just jumped 50 pips higher now.

The Surge in Commodity Dollars Continues

Commodity currencies have been trading in a downtrend in the previous two months, particularly the Aussie and the Canadian Dollar. The Kiwi has been a bit more resilient. One of the main reasons that the commodity Dollars have been feeling heavy during this time is that the market sentiment has been negative.

When the sentiment in global financial markets is negative, commodity currencies fall while safe haven assets rally. Hence the rally in the Japanese Yen and Gold in the previous months. USD/JPY lost around 9 cents since the beginning of the year as the JPY strengthened.

But, the situation is starting to change and the sentiment is shifting from negative to positive. Gold is not making new highs, while USD/JPY has made a reversal from the lows below 105 and it is trading now at the 107 region.

The commodity Dollars have been the main beneficiary of this shift in sentiment. AUD/USD is 90 pips higher this week, while the Kiwi is around 150 pips higher from the lows. It’s for this reason that I have a bullish bias for commodity Dollars today, as explained in the section below.

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD

The trend is bullish
The 200 SMA will provide support again on a retrace

The 200 SMA looks like a good place to buy

Yesterday we had a buy signal in NZD/USD which was closed in profit. The buyers remain in control on commodity currencies today again so we are thinking of buying AUD/USD. We will wait for a retrace to the 200 SMA (purple). This moving average has been resistance previously and it is expected to turn into support.

In Conclusion

Nowotny got things started now as the Euro spikes higher on his latest comments for Reuters. The US PPI report will be released shortly, so let’s concentrate on that now. By the way, our EUR/CHF buy signal just hit take profit on this Euro spike.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 9 – USD/JPY Looks Increasingly Bullish After Kuroda’s Comments

Posted on April 9, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

It has been a pretty quiet day technically since most forex majors have traded in very tight ranges. Although, we had some fundamental on-goings to take our minds off this boring price action. The fundamentals occurred in the Far East, as the BOJ commented on inflation while the Chinese continue to fight back Donald Trump, without much success though as the rest of the globe watches.

Is anyone out there hearing me?

BOJ’s Kuroda Knows When to Strike

The target at 2% wasn’t a mistake as all major central banks have this as they target.
The current inflation levels in Japan are far from the target
Exit will be very slow (whenever it begins)
Will continue with powerful easing to achieve price target

The Chinese prime minister Li was also out today saying that trade war will only hurt everyone’s interests. But, Trump is obsessed with China-US trade balance so nothing will change his mind.

Cryptocurrencies Take A Dive this Morning

Cryptocurrencies have been on a slight bullish run in the last couple of days. Remember that the crypto market remains open during the weekend. Most of brokers also allow crypto trading during the weekend, so you can trade this new market on weekends as well.

Since Friday afternoon, cryptocurrencies have been climbing higher. Bitcoin has gained about $600 during this time, but today the sellers have returned and cryptos have turned bearish again.

Ethereum has turned bearish too losing around $40. The price found resistance at the 100 SMA (grey) on the H4 chart. The area around the 100 SMA has been resistance previously and stochastic and RSI were overbought, so the reverse wasn’t unexpected.

South Korea has inspected three banks over cryptocurnecy exchange connections to see their compliance with anti money laundering rules. Japan has suspended two crypto exchanges as well, but I don’t think these events are the cause for the crypto decline today.

The interest has fallen for cryptos. Although, Ethereum has a chance to reverse back up. The 20 SMA (grey) and the 50 SMA (yellow) stand just below and it looks like they are providing support at the moment, so perhaps we might see a reverse.

Ethereum trades between two moving averages now

Trades in Sight

Bullish NZD/USD

The trend is bullish
The 20 SMA is providing support on the H1 chart
The retrace lower seems complete

The retrace down is over

We are already long on this pair with a forex signal which we opened last week. This forex pair is on a bullish trend at the moment and the retrace lower today is over. The 20 SMA (grey) provided support and the price formed a pin candlestick which is a reversing signal. Stochastic reached oversold levels and NZD/USD reversed back up. It is headed towards the take profit level now so we are letting it run.

In Conclusion

It was pretty quiet until a couple of hours ago, but the US traders have shaken things, so forex majors are in motion at the moment. Let’s just post this US session brief quickly and concentrate on trading so we can get some pips today.

Forex Signals US Session Brief April 3 – Cryptocurrencies Turn Bullish

Posted on April 3, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

Cryptocurrencies haven’t been able to get their act together in the last few months as they continue to stretch the downtrend. But, the situation might be changing now as they try to reverse higher. The USD bulls are also trying to get things going, but there’s a fight going on at the moment with the bears, so the jury is still out.

Cryptocurrencies are finally turning bullish

The USD Makes Its Move

The US Dollar has been trading in a range for the last several days. The market made some strange moves early last week ahead of the US GDP. But the Easter holidays have calmed the forex market and most major pairs have been hanging around in tight ranges.

Today though, the market is beginning to make some moves. The USD lost some ground in the early hours of the European session, but has returned strongly and it is making some decent gains now.

We posted a forex update about EUR/USD earlier on today. This forex pair was moving up but it had reached the top of the range. So, we decided to go short on this pair and it proved to be a good decision. EUR/USD reversed down and reached the bottom of the range pretty soon, so we pocketed our profit on that trade.

The same price action we saw in GBP/USD. This pair reversed from the highs and it is now 60 pips lower. USD/JPY has been climbing since last evening while commodity Dollars are reversing lower as well. From this sort of price action we can say that the US Dollar is gaining momentum. Although, EUR/USD and GBP/USD should break below the bottom of the range.

Cryptocurrencies Make a Turnaround

Cryptocurrencies have been trading on a downtrend since late December last year. There have been times when I thought that the trend was reversing, but the sellers have returned time after time and have taken altcoins lower.

Last week the downtrend picked up pace in cryptocurrencies. But, the 200 SMA held the ground on the daily chart for Bitcoin and Litecoin on the daily chart. It provided strong support and it seems like the sellers have given up now.

Cryptocurrencies started reversing yesterday and now they have moved above the 20 SMA (grey) on the H4 chart. As you can see from the Bitcoin chart below, this moving average has been providing resistance last week. This is the smallest moving average that we use and when it provides resistance it means that the downtrend is strong.

But, Bitcoin broke above this moving average yesterday and it has found support on it since then. This means that cryptos are done with the 20 SMA and now they are trying to break the 50 SMA (yellow). It was this moving average that provided support on the weekly chart.

If Bitcoin moves above the 50 SMA on the H4 chart, then that would increase the confidence for buyers and the reverse will take form properly. The daily chart is looking increasingly bullish, so I think that this is the time when cryptos make a decent pullback higher.

The 20 SMA has turned into support, now it’s the turn for the 50 SMA to give way

Trades in Sight

Bearish AUD/USD

The trend is bearish
The retrace up is almost over
The doji candlestick is another bearish signal

The stochastic is almost overbought

We opened a sell forex signal in this pair yesterday which remains on. The signal is still in red since we sold this pair about 20 pips lower but it seems like AUD/USD is about to reverse. The price formed a doji which is a reversing signal and the 50 SMA (yellow) is providing resistance. The stochastic indicator is almost oversold, so the retrace up on this pair is almost complete.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 29 – Finally A Few Good Words for the USD

Posted on March 29, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US Dollar has recovered pretty well in the last few days after the sudden crash on Monday. That move on Monday didn’t make much sense, so the reverse seems natural. Today, it looks like the USD wants to continue the uptrend and the fundamentals agree with that scenario. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, can’t get their act together as the downtrend stretched further.

The Dollar is on the roll again

The USD Feels Much Better Today

This morning, the Philly FED Chairman Harker made some hawkish comments for the USD. He said that inflation looks steady now with a bias on the upside. Because of this, he reasons that there will be three more interest rate hikes this year, so four in total. The market was pricing in two more hikes this year, so this comment comes as a surprise. As we mentioned in one of the previous forex updates, Harker is not a voting member this year but he does speak at the FED meetings, so his comments matter.

Later on, the US employment and inflation figures were released and they reinforced the idea that inflation is slowly improving. The Y/Y core price index picked up by 0.1%, posting 1.6%. The PCE deflator that the FED also likes to take into consideration when assessing inflation, also rose to 1.8% against 1.7% expected.

The unemployment claims were also published together with inflation and they fell by 15k. It was a good round of data for the USD and Harker’s words also sounded hawkish for the USD. So, the situation is improving for the US dollar.

Although, it needs something more to really get the train going. EUR/USD has been reversing down every time it has reached the 1.24-25 are, so the USD want to turn bullish and EUR/USD bearish. But the sellers keep giving up around the 1. 22 level. So, I think they need a nod from someone to push the price lower and reverse the bigger trend.

Cryptocurrencies Fail to Turn Around

It seemed like cryptocurrencies were trying to turn around yesterday after trending down for more than a week. Bitcoin moved around $400 higher in the morning, but the resistance area at $8,100 discouraged the buyers.

Cryptocurrencies reversed lower and most of major altcoins closed the day with a daily candlestick which points to a bearish continuation. Yesterday’s candlestick has a long upper wick/shadow which means that the buyers tried to push higher, but the sellers overwhelmed them, sending the price back down, thus, remaining in control.

Today it has been a total bearish day for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin lost about $500 early in the morning and it has been trading at the lows since then. Litecoin has continued to make new lows as the day progresses, so it looks even more dovish.

Looking at the weekly Litecoin chart, the next target for sellers is the $100-105 level. That’s a big round number and the 50 SMA (yellow) is approaching that area. So, it will add extra strength to that level. Besides, it provided support earlier this year.

Below we have the previous support at $90. This place provided resistance on the way up. Now, that resistance level is supposed to turn into support.

These are the next two targets for Litecoin

Trades in Sight

Bullish EUR/USD

The trend has turned bearish
The retrace up will soon be over
The 20 SMA (grey) is providing resistance

EUR/USD is already turning lower

On Tuesday this forex pair turned bearish and yesterday the bearish trend stretched further. Right now EUR/USD is retracing higher, but the 20 SMA is providing resistance. The stochastic indicator will soon be overbought, although selling at the other two moving averages on top would be safer. If the buyers can’t push up there soon, then we might open a sell forex signal here at the 20 SMA.

In Conclusion

Tomorrow, the western world will be on Easter holiday so most markets will be closed. Today is the last trading day of the week for many forex traders, therefore they will try to adjust their positions before the weekend. There’s not much on the economic calendar either, so I expect some scattered price action until the evening.

Forex Signals US Session Brief March 28 – Forex Traders Making the Last Moves Before the US GDP Report

Posted on March 28, 2018 by Skerdian Meta

The US GDP report has been in the head of the forex trader during the last couple of days. They have been trying to adjust their trades before that and as a result, it has been pretty difficult to trade forex. But, the time for the release is finally here. I couldn’t care less about how the report will be, I just want this to be out of the way so we can get back to normal.

All of a sudden, everybody loves the USD again

The USD Reverses Yesterday’s Tumble

Last week, we saw some decent moves in the forex market but they made sense to some degree. Safe haven assets received some strong bids which is normal when the market sentiment deteriorates. USD/JPY broke below the long term support at 105, but that wasn’t a big surprise either because the sellers had been pushing lower continuously and they had been knocking on that door for quite some time.

This week, the price action in the forex market has been impressive too, but it hasn’t made much sense to be honest. On Monday, the market turned against the US Dollar without any decent reason, thus the Buck ended the day more than 100 pips lower across the board.

So yesterday, we decided to open a few forex signals against the USD. We sold USD/CAD and bought NZD/USD since the downtrend in USD was picking up pace. But yesterday, everything reversed and we saw the opposite of what happened on Monday.

Monday’s losses were undone for the USD and in fact it ended the day with some small gains combined with Monday. GBP/USD fell off a cliff and lost nearly 200 pips. Did anyone hear anything about Brexit, because I didn’t?

So, it has been frustrating trading this sort of market during the last two days. The US GDP report is about to be released soon. Hopefully, the market will turn back to normal so the price action becomes easier to read.

Cryptocurrencies Try to Turn Bullish After Becoming Oversold

Cryptocurrencies have been following a downtrend for about a week. Bitcoin tried to turn bullish in the previous week, but the 100 SMA provided resistance on top and the attempt to reverse the trend ended up being just a pullback before the next leg of the downtrend.

Cryptocurrencies have been on a bullish trend since the beginning and the uptrend gained immense pace late last year as the gold rush for cryptos swiped the public. But the public came to its terms with cryptos as the people realized that the cryptocurrency market is not a gold mine where you can make a quick fortune.

So, the buying pressure decreased and cryptos have been trading on a bearish trend this year. We have had four consecutive bearish candles in the Bitcoin daily chart. The rest of altcoins have been following Bitcoin as it is usually the case, so the picture has been the same in major cryptocurrencies.

Today though, we are seeing an attempt by the buyers to form a bullish daily candlestick. Bitcoin started the day near the lows below $7,000 and it has been climbing up since then. It broke above the $8,000 level earlier today and it is trading near the highs now. So, the price action looks bullish for cryptos today, but we have to wait until the day ends because we have seen buyers attempt to reverse the market in the last few days, but at the end of the day, cryptos have ended up even more bearish.

We’re above the 50 SMA today

Trades in Sight

Bullish EUR/USD

The trend has been bullish for more than a week
The retrace down seem complete on the H4 chart
The 20 SMA (grey) is providing support

If not for the US GDP report, I would have gone long now

I am not going long or short now on any financial instrument because the US GDP report is aout to be released. But I would have gone long on EUR/USD based on this chart setup. The trend is bullish and the retrace lower is almost complete. The 20 SMA is providing support as well, so it seems like the buyers are gearing up.

In Conclusion

The forex market has been behaving naughty in the last two days, but the time for the release of the US GDP report has finally arrived. I hope that the markets get back to normal after this release, so we can trade normally and hopefully make some profit until the end of the month.